The Perils of Prediction
Well, let’s just say the Round of 16 and quarterfinals did not go as I expected. In particular, Denmark’s and Germany’s departure at the hands of Hungary and Qatar busted my bracket pretty badly. Qatar relied heavily on Capote and Saric and got just enough support from their supporting cast to send and a disorganized German attack packing. Hungary got Nagy back, but it was the Dane’s lackluster performance was more to blame for their departure. Finally, Spain survived a scare from Brazil only to be done in by a more determined Croatian squad. So, of my final 4 only France (no big surprise) has survived.
All told, if one looks at the opening odds it’s a surprising final four. Here are those odds for the 4 remaining teams to win the championship and finish in the top 3
France: 1 to 1; 1 to 5
Croatia: 12 to 1; 9 to 4
Slovenia: 30 to 1; 11 to 2
Norway: 40 to 1; 8 to 1
A French Coronation?
Now, here’s the updated odds to win it all:
France: 5 to 12
Croatia: 5.5 to 1
Slovenia: 12 to 1
Norway: 4.5 to 1
In simple terms, or if you prefer percentages (like the website fivethirtyeight.com calculates) France should win this tournament about 70% of the time. So, France is clearly a pretty big favorite. That being said, here’s a case for each of the other sides to knock out France.
Slovenia lacks star power, but plays very well collectively. The players know their roles and they don’t try to do too much individually. Several of the players have either played or are currently playing professionally in France. They know the French players, know that man for man the French are better, but they also know their limitations. If Slovenia can keep France from running off one of their typical 5 goal scoring blitzes, Slovenia can win a close game in the closing minutes through smart play. The key, though, will be keeping in contact and not letting the game get out of hand.
Norway, has been the biggest surprise of the tourney. Aside from rising start, Sandor Sagosen (headed to Paris SG next season) it’s a collection of no-name players, most of whom play in the Danish league. Peter Bruun at Stregspiller.com gives much of the credit for the team’s performance to their coach, Chrisitian Berge: Link. I’m inclined to agree with that assessment. Much like Slovenia, Norway plays very well together collectively. I’m not sure if they have the star power, but I think they can beat Croatia.
Croatia’s chances I think begin and end with the play of Domagoj Duvnak. The 28 year old Kiel Centerback is the key linchpin in the Croatian attack. If he plays well, he can shepherd a Croatian side that’s a bit thin in depth and reportedly ailing. If he plays outworldly maybe they can spring an upset against France in the final.
Could France Beat France?
Ultimately, I think the only team that can beat France, is France themselves. Clearly they are the best team in the tournament. None of the other teams can even begin to match their depth at each position. But, then again France hasn’t been fully tested yet. Their depth is not as great as it used to be and they’ve got a new coach. If a game comes down to the wire it’s at least conceivable that the pressure of being the host and expectations could do them in.
Conceivable, but I would have bet on a team like Denmark or Germany as being the side capable of keeping the match close for such a possibility. And, those sides got bounced in the Round of 16. My thinking now is that France’s superiority will show its face early on in both the semi and final and result in less than exciting games to watch. But, if my past predictions are any guide we could be looking at some significantly different outcomes. I guess that’s why games are played on the court, and not on paper.