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Euro 2022 Qualification Format
The qualification picture for the Men’s 2022 European Championships is starting to become clearer, but there is still quite a bit yet to be resolved this Sunday when 15 qualification matches will be simultaneously played at 1800 CET. Yes, you read that right: 15 matches will be played simultaneously. Although, I haven’t seen it stated anywhere, I’m guessing this is being done to make it tougher (if not impossible) for any manipulation of the results to favor one over another possible. And, to avoid the possibility of a situation where a draw might be advantageous for both nations and this is clearly known before the start of a match.
All, well in good, but this results in quite a bit of a headache for teams trying to figure out what they need to do in order to qualify. And, this is especially true when trying to determine which teams will qualify as the 4 best 3rd place teams. The 3rd place teams from all 8 groups will be ranked based on the points and goal differential they’ve obtained in Group Play vs the 1st and 2nd place teams in their group. (Results against the 4th place team are thrown out.) As you might expect this means picking off 2 points for a win or 1 point for a draw against the top two teams in your group are likely to be critical for qualification.
Current 3rd Place Standings (A Little Bit Misleading)
Here are the current 3rd Place Standings (from the Wikipedia Euro 2022 Qualification Page):
These standings, however, can be a bit misleading because the teams that are currently in 3rd place might not end up in 3rd place. No group demonstrates this more clearly than Group 8. Right now Romania is in 3rd place and thanks to a 36-27 win over 2nd place Montenegro they have 2 points and a GD of -2. Unfortunately, for Romania, however, is the reality that they also have a loss and a draw vs 4th place Kosovo and should they end up tied with Kosovo they will slip into 4th place on head to head tiebreakers. And, then Kosovo would make this table, but they would have 0 points and a GD of -26 or even worse depending on their last match with Sweden.
Euro 2022 Group Scenarios
Below for each group are the current standings, potential final standings (if necessary) and the potential 3rd place points and goal differential that will go to the overal 3rd place standings. Also, highlighted in light blue is what I think the more likely outcomes are.
Group 1
Group 1 is pretty straightforward. Serbia and France have already qualified and Greece is guaranteed to finish in 3rd place. In order to qualify, Greece will likely need an upset win over France on Sunday. And, even that win might not be enough with the -21 GD they will start with. In blue, is what I project to be the most likely scenario.
Group 2
Group 2 is a bit complicated. Germany is guaranteed to finish in first place while Austria will host Bosnia & Herzegovina in a match that will likely determine 2nd and 3rd place. Likely, but not guaranteed as there is one scenario where Estonia can sneak into 3rd place.
Barring Estonia pulling an epic upset over Germany, the Austria – Bosnia match will determine who gets 2nd place. As can be seen in the table below Austria probably needs a win as their 3rd place table will be 0 points and a GD worse than -29. Whereas Bosnia would probably be in pretty good shape with 2 points from their victory against Austria earlier in qualification.
Group 3
Russia has won the group and qualified and the Faroe Islands has been eliminated. The Czech Republic – Ukraine match will decide 2nd and 3rd place. Ukraine needs to win the match to finish 2nd while the Czech Republic will finish 2nd with either a win or a draw. The Czech Republic is also in a good position to qualify as a 3rd place team since they will take 3 points with them into the 3rd place table. The Ukraine might also qualify, but 1 point (for their draw with Russia) might not be enough.
Group 4
Group 4 is relatively straight forward. Portugal and Island will finish in the top 2 places while Lithuania will finish in 3rd place in 8 of the 9 scenarios. If Israel were to upset Iceland and Portugal were to beat Lithuania Israel would finish ahead of Lithuania due to a better goal differential in their two meetings.
Lithuania thanks to the 2 points earned for their upset win over Iceland have good chances to secure one of the best 3rd places. Israel’s chances are a real long shot as it would require an upset victory over Iceland in Iceland. The most like scenario will be for both Portugal and Iceland to earn victories on Sunday.
Group 5
Group 5 appears to have 3 qualifiers. Slovenia due to tiebreaker advantages is guaranteed to finish either 1st or 2nd. The result of the Poland – Netherlands match will determine which of those teams will finish in 3rd place. If Poland beats the Netherlands, the Netherlands will finish in 3rd place. If the Netherlands wins or if the match is a draw Poland will finish in 3rd place. Winless Turkey is guaranteed to finish 4th.
Should the Netherlands finish in 3rd place they will take 3 points with them into the third place table, so it’s hard to see them not finishing in the top four. Poland should they finish in 3rd place will take 2 point with them so they should also have good chances. In blue are the two most like outcomes on Sunday.
Group 6
Norway and Belarus have qualified and either Italy or Latvia will finish in 3rd place. Italy has the tiebreaker advantage over Latvia,
Both Italy and Latvia need a big upset win in order to have a chance in the 3rd place table. And, even that might not be enough as they have a big GD deficit. Both teams are big underdogs in their last match and the most likely outcome is that they will both lose.
Group 7
Group 7 is all about Switzerland as they are guaranteed to finish in 3rd place. The only question is whether they can beat N. Macedonia in N. Macedonia to head to the 3rd place table with 2 points.
Group 8
Sweden is guaranteed to finish 1st, but Montenegro, Romania and Kosovo are duking it out for 2nd and 3rd. Montenegro has a tiebreaker advantage over Kosovo while Kosovo has a tiebreaker advantage over Romania
Here’s where it really gets interesting… If undefeated Sweden beats Kosovo as expected the Montenegro – Romania will decide who gets 2nd and it’s essentially a winner take all situation.
- If Montenegro wins, Romania is eliminated as Kosovo is the 3rd place team due to to their victory and draw vs Romania
- If Romania wins, Montenegro is the 3rd place team, but they take 0 points and a (-24 + the amount of their loss) as a GD. Barring a bizarre turn of events Montenegro is eliminated.
- Winner take all, except there are also draws in handball. And should that happen, both teams will qualify. Montenegro as the 2nd place team and Romania as a 3rd place team taking 3 points into the table which is surely enough to qualify as a best place 3rd team.
Putting it All Together
Here are the “likely results” from each of the 8 groups roughly in order from strongest to weakest
Here’s a rough summary of what each nation needs to happen in order to qualify
- Netherlands: They have qualified. There is no possible way for there to be 4 nations with 3 points in the 3rd place table.
- Poland: Poland is in pretty good shape as they will head to the table with at least 2 points and will start the day with a -3 GD.
- Lithuania: If Lithuania loses to Portugal as expected they will have 2 points, but also a pretty high -GD: -22 plus whatever they lose to Portugal by. This means they will be hoping for results from the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Lithuania will likely need 2 of the 4 results below to happen:
- Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
- Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
- N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Czech Republic: The Czech Republic is in pretty good shape. If they beat Ukraine they finish 2nd in their group. If they lose to the Ukraine they will finish 3rd, but will have 2 points and will start the day with a +1 GD.
- Ukraine: Ukraine’s situation is a little more precarious. If they beat the Czech Republic they qualify, but if they lose they enter the table with just 1 point, meaning they will be looking for results in the other groups that result in teams heading to the 3rd place table with 0 points. Poland will likely need 2 of the 3 results below to happen:
- Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
- N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Bosnia & Herzegovina: If Bosnia beats Austria they will finish in 2nd place. If they lose, they will take 2 points to the 3rd place table and they start the day with a GD of 0. And, that probably is enough to finish 4th or better. To be on the safe side they will be hoping for results in the other groups that send teams to the table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
- Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
- N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Austria: If Austria win they finish in 2nd place. If they lose they head to the 3rd place table with 0 points and they start the day with a -29 GD. Mathematically, in the running, but it would probably take some ridiculous blow outs to advance with that high of a -GD. Should they draw vs Bosnia they would take 1 point to the table, but they would need to have several of the swing matches go there way.
- Switzerland: If Switzerland beat Macedonia they head to the 3rd place table with 2 points and start the day with a -8 GD. 2 points might be enough to qualify and their GD will improve depending on the margin of victory so they might catch up to other teams with 2 points. And, they will also be looking for results in the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
- Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
- Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Montenegro and Romania: Well, this is the wild card situation…
- If Montenegro wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they head to the table with 0 points and a -24 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
- If Romania wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they finish in 4th place and Kosovo takes 3rd, but with 0 points and a -26 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
- If however, Romania and Montenegro draw Montenegro finishes 2nd and Romania takes 3rd… And, they head to the table with 3 points which will qualify them as well.
- Will these teams play for a draw? No, that’s tough to manipulate from the first minute of a 60 minute match. And, if either team gets a lead that’s a comfortable way to qualify. That being said, if the match is tied in the waning minutes of the game will there be any incentive to take a risky shot that could turn into an easy fast break for the other team? No… None, whatsoever.
- Italy, Greece, Latvia and Israel: These sides could pull off big upsets and get 2 points, but it’s hard to see that happening. Should it occur, though, their situation would be essentially the same as Lithuania’s above.