Euro 2022 Qualification Scenarios (Sunday, 2 May)

John Ryan

4 years ago

**The projected top four 3rd place teams (If the odds predictions are 100% correct)**

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All times are CET which is 6 hours ahead of US ET. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM and/or OddsPortal.

Today (Sunday, 2 May) at 1800 CET, qualification for the 2022 European Handball Championships will wrap up with a mad dash of 15 simultaneous matches. Here are those 15 matches, the current handicap odds and a top level summary of what each team needs to do to qualify. For a way more detailed summary including all possibilities check out this earlier posting: Link

All matches can be seen on ehfTV. You might want to get multiple devices and laptops today. I will also try and tweet with timely updates as to the current qualification situation and which matches have become pivotal: Team Handball News on Twitter

Group 1
- France (-12.5) vs Greece
  - This match is very unlikely to effect qualification
Group 2
- Austria (-0.5) vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
  - Austria: If Austria win they finish in 2nd place. If they lose they head to the 3rd place table with 0 points and they start the day with a -29 GD. Mathematically, in the running, but it would probably take some ridiculous blow outs to advance with that high of a -GD. Should they draw vs Bosnia they would take 1 point to the table, but they would need to have several of the swing matches go there way.
  - Bosnia & Herzegovina: If Bosnia beats Austria they will finish in 2nd place. If they lose, they will take 2 points to the 3rd place table and they start the day with a GD of 0. And, that probably is enough to finish 4th or better. To be on the safe side they will be hoping for results in the other groups that send teams to the table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
    - Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
    - N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Germany (-11.5) vs Estonia
  - This match is very unlikely to effect qualification
Group 3
- Czech Republic (-1) vs Ukraine
  - Czech Republic: The Czech Republic is in pretty good shape. If they beat Ukraine they finish 2nd in their group. If they lose to the Ukraine they will finish 3rd, but will have 2 points and will start the day with a +1 GD.
  - Ukraine: Ukraine’s situation is a little more precarious. If they beat the Czech Republic they qualify, but if they lose they enter the table with just 1 point, meaning they will be looking for results in the other groups that result in teams heading to the 3rd place table with 0 points. Poland will likely need 2 of the 3 results below to happen:
    - Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
    - N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Russia (-7.5) vs Faroe Islands
  - This match has no effect on qualification
Group 4
- Portugal (-5.5) vs LithuaniaLithuania might get in with their 2 points from upsetting Iceland. Key word: might. An upset draw or win, however, should put them through
  - Lithuania: If Lithuania loses to Portugal as expected they will have 2 points, but also a pretty high -GD: -22 plus whatever they lose to Portugal by. This means they will be hoping for results from the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Lithuania will likely need 2 of the 4 results below to happen:
    - Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
    - Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
    - N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Iceland (-10) vs Israel
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification
Group 5
- Netherlands vs Poland (-0.5)
  - Netherlands: They have qualified. There is no possible way for there to be 4 nations with 3 points in the 3rd place table.
  - Poland: Poland is in pretty good shape as they will head to the table with at least 2 points and will start the day with a -3 GD.
- Slovenia (-9.5) vs Turkey
  - This match has no effect on qualification
Group 6
- Belarus (-8.5) vs Latvia
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification
- Norway (-12.5) vs Italy
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification
Group 7
- N. Macedonia vs Switzerland (-2)
  - Switzerland: If Switzerland beat Macedonia they head to the 3rd place table with 2 points and start the day with a -8 GD. 2 points might be enough to qualify and their GD will improve depending on the margin of victory so they might catch up to other teams with 2 points. And, they will also be looking for results in the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
    - Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
    - Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Denmark (-13) vs Finland
  - This match has no effect on qualification
Group 8
- Montenegro (-1.5) vs Romania
  - Montenegro and Romania: Well, this is the wild card situation…
    - If Montenegro wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they head to the table with 0 points and a -24 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
    - If Romania wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they finish in 4th place and Kosovo takes 3rd, but with 0 points and a -26 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
    - If however, Romania and Montenegro draw Montenegro finishes 2nd and Romania takes 3rd… And, they head to the table with 3 points which will qualify them as well.Will these teams play for a draw? No, that’s tough to manipulate from the first minute of a 60 minute match. And, if either team gets a lead that’s a comfortable way to qualify. That being said, if the match is tied in the waning minutes of the game will there be any incentive to take a risky shot that could turn into an easy fast break for the other team? No… None, whatsoever.
- Sweden (-11.5) vs Kosovo
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification

The Possible Outcomes (Just the Likely Ones)

Here are the most likely 3rd place teams and the results that would head to the best 3rd place table. (For every single possible outcome: Link)

**Possible 3rd Place Results (The Likely Ones)**

Projected Results (Based Strictly on the Odds)

Taking the odds above as to which teams would win and by how many goals (the handicap was rounded up) these are the teams that would qualify

Teams that qualify by finishing 2nd in their group: Poland, Czech Republic, Austria, Montenegro

Teams that will finish in 3rd place and the resulting top 4 teams: Netherlands, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lithuania

Teams currently in contention that would finish in 4th place: Romania

Of course, this is just one possible outcome of many. And, with 5 matches projected to be close it’s pretty unlikely that this is what will occur. Switzerland could lose to Macedonia, Bosnia could be Austria, etc, etc.

Halftime Projection (To be filled at halftime)

As fast as I can possibly do it, I will update the table at halftime. And, I will try to post updates on Twitter as the matches head to the finish. Key word… Try. It can be very hard to post and watch 5 matches at the same time. And, it goes without saying I’m not infallible. Hopefully, there won’t be any mistakes.

Team Handball News on Twitter: Link