Note: This analysis was done prior to the matches on day 2. A new update prior to match day 3 is available here: Link
On paper, Olympic Qualification Tournament #2 will likely be decided by the head to head results in the 3 matches between France, Croatia and Portugal. Tunisia is certainly capable of pulling off an upset and should they win or draw against those 3 teams all of this analysis will no longer be valid.
With that in mind here are the scenario possibilities taking into account these 3 matches
- Friday, 12 March, France 30, Croatia 26
- Saturday, 13 March, Croatia 25, Portugal 24
- Sunday, 14 March, France vs Portugal
On match day 1, France beat Croatia 30-26 to give France 2 points. It is also assumed that all three teams will pick up 2 points vs Tunisia. This chart depicts the 6 basic scenarios with the 2nd match between Croatia and Portugal depicted on the left and the 3rd match between France and Portugal depicted on the top.
The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Olympics, red indicates the team will finish in 3rd place and yellow indicates that 2 or 3 teams are level on points and subsequent tiebreakers will be required to determine placing.
Here are some top level notes regarding today’s pivotal match between Portugal and Croatia
- If Portugal beats Croatia, Portugal and France qualify for Tokyo and Croatia is eliminated
- If Portugal and Croatia draw, France qualifies for Tokyo. 2nd place between Portugal and Croatia will then depend on the outcome of the Portugal-France match on Sunday. A Portugal win or draw vs France qualifies Portugal. If Portugal loses to France it will then come down to Goal Differential in all matches played.
- If Croatia beats Portugal qualification for Tokyo for all 3 teams will depend on the outcome of the Portugal-France match on Sunday. If France beats or draws vs Portugal, France and Croatia will qualify for Tokyo. If, however, Portugal beats France qualification will come down to tiebreakers for a 3 way tie between France, Portugal and Croatia (See below)
3 Way Tie Between France, Croatia and Portugal (Level on 4 Points)
Should Croatia beat Portugal and Portugal beat France qualification on Tokyo will be decided by head to head goal differential for the 3 matches between those teams. The charts below highlight the possibilities regarding the margin of victory in all 3 matches.
The first column simply depicts the the Goal Differential Standings after the first match, which is a result we already know, France 30, Croatia 26. The second column depicts the Goal Differential Standings for Croatia beating Portugal by margins from 1 to 8 goals
- The 1st column simply depicts the the Goal Differential Standings after the first match, which is a result we already know, France 30, Croatia 26.
- The 2nd column depicts the Goal Differential Standings for Croatia beating Portugal by margins from 1 to 8 goals.
- The 3rd column depicts the final Goal Differential Standings for Portugal beating France by margins of 1 to 8 goals
- Green indicates qualifying for Tokyo; Red indicates 3rd place and Yellow indicates a tie which would then be settled by Head to Head Goals scored.
Some top level notes
- Croatia needs to win by 5 over Portugal to guarantee qualification in this scenario
- A 4 goal Croatia win would also qualify Croatia under most outcomes in the Portugal-France Match
- A 3 goal Croatia win leaves a few possibilities
- A 2 or 1 goal Croatia win is unlikely to help Croatia in this scenario as it would require big win by Portugal over France
- If Portugal loses to Croatia by 1 or 2 goals they can still qualify for Tokyo if they beat France by just 1 goal. However, as the margin a Croatian victory grow they have to beat France by a greater and greater margin of victory.
- France will likely qualify in this scenario as it requires Portugal to not only win, but win big in most scenarios.