2020 Men’s Olympic Qualification Tournaments Preview (Sunday- Day 3)

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NOTE: The U.S. and Canada Start Daylight Saving Time (DST) on Sunday 14 March, but Europe doesn’t start until 28 March. So USA and Canadian residents need to subtract 1 hour less than normal.

CET is currently 5 hours ahead of US ET. Odds courtesy of 10 Bet.

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Tournament 1 (Verde Complex, Podgorica, Montenegro)

Standings after Day 2
  • Brazil (-6.5) vs Chile (Sunday, 1730 USET / 1230 US ET) Video Link
    • Brazil’s 30-24 victory over S Korea yesterday puts them in a good position to secure 2nd place in this tournament and to to qualify for the Olympics. Assuming S Korea loses to Norway, Brazil will qualify with a win, draw or even with a loss to Chile by 3 goals or less.
    • A 4 goal Chile victory would see Chile head to Tokyo. While unlikely, Chile did upset Brazil 32-29 at the 2019 PANAM Games. Chile lost 38-23 to Norway yesterday, but rested some of their players for the Brazil match.
  • S Korea vs Norway (-9.5) (Sunday, 2000 CET / 1500 US ET) Video Link
    • Barring a remarkable performance by S Korea, Norway should have no problems securing their 3rd victory.
KOR-BRA-CHI 3-Way Tie Goal Differential Scenario

Tournament 2 (AccorHotels Arena, Paris)

Standings after Day 2
  • Croatia (-7.5) vs Tunisia (Sunday, 1830 CET / 1330 US ET) Video Link
    • Croatia needs to take care of business vs Tunisia and then hope for a French win or draw vs Portugal
  • Portugal vs France (-2.5) (Sunday, 2100 CET / 1600 US ET) Video Link
    • Includes English Language commentary with Paul Bray
    • On Saturday, Portugal was up 16-10 vs Croatia early in the 2nd half and seemed to be on their way to Tokyo, but a furious Croatian comeback resulted in a 25-24 win for Croatia. All is not lost, however, as a Portugal win over France will see them qualify thanks to a guaranteed goal differential advantage over Croatia or France.
    • Beating France, of course, is easier said than done and there’s definitely some history between these two sides. With a World Championship quarterfinal spot on the line in January, France crushed Portugal 32-23. But, a year earlier, Portugal helped send France home in the Preliminary Group phase of the European Championships with a 28-25 victory.
    • France for all practical purposes has probably qualified as it will likely take an 8 goal loss vs Portugal for them to slip behind Croatia in the goal differential standings. (see below)
Top Level Scenarios assuming that Croatia beats Tunisia

FRA-POR-CRO 3-Way Tie Goal Differential Scenario
  • Should France lose by 7 to Portugal, Head to Head goals for the 3 matches is the next tiebreaker. Croatia’s GF is 51, and France’s GF will be 30 plus whatever they score vs Portugal, so if they score 22 goals or more they would qualify. If they score 20 or less Croatia would qualify.
  • Should France lose 28-21, Croatia and France would be tied at 51 on head to head goals. The next tiebreaker is goal differential in all matches… Enough. If this looks like it might happen I’ll tweet the details.

Tournament 3 (Max-Schmeling-Halle, Berlin)

Standings after Day 2
  • Algeria vs Germany (-10.5) (Sunday, 1545 CET / 1045 US ET) Video Link
    • Heavily favored Germany should officially punch their ticket with a victory over Algeria
  • Sweden (-2.5) vs Slovenia (Sunday, 1815 CET / 1315 US ET) Video Link
    • Includes English Language commentary with Paul Bray
    • Slovenia was demolished by Germany, 36-27 on Saturday, but that loss will be easily forgotten with a win over Sweden. The math is simple (assuming Germany beats Algeria): Slovenia wins they Qualify for Tokyo. If Sweden wins or the match is a draw, Sweden qualifies.
Top Level Scenarios assuming that Germany beats Algeria