Note: This analysis was done prior to the matches on day 2. A new update prior to match day 3 is available here: Link
On paper, Olympic Qualification Tournament #3 will likely be decided by the head to head results in the 3 matches between Germany, Sweden and Slovenia. Algeria is a respectable side and has shown they can compete with top sides (losing to France 29-26 at the World Championships) but, it is still an unlikely proposition.
With that in mind here are the scenario possibilities taking into account these 3 matches
- Friday, 12 March, Germany 25, Sweden 25
- Saturday, 13 March, Germany vs Slovenia
- Sunday, 14 March, Slovenia vs Sweden
On match day 1, Germany and Sweden played to a 25-25 draw, giving both sides 1 point each. It is also assumed that all three teams will pick up an additional 2 points vs Algeria. This chart depicts the 6 basic scenarios with the 2nd match between Germany and Slovenia depicted on the left and the 3rd match between Slovenia and Sweden depicted on the top.
The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Olympics, red indicates the team will finish in 3rd place and yellow indicates that 2 or 3 teams are level on points and subsequent tiebreakers will be required to determine placing.
Here’s what each team needs to do to qualify for the Olympics
- Germany
- Win their match vs Slovenia OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and (have Sweden beat Slovenia or Slovenia beat Sweden) OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and have Sweden-Slovenia play to a draw and beat either Sweden or Slovenia in the 3 way tiebreakers OR
- Lose their match vs Slovenia and have Slovenia beat Sweden and beat Sweden on subsequent tiebreakers
- Sweden
- Win their match vs Slovenia OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and (have Germany beat Slovenia or Slovenia beat Germany) OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and have Germany-Slovenia play to a draw and beat either Germany or Slovenia in the 3 way tiebreakers OR
- Lose their match vs Slovenia and have Slovenia beat Germany and beat Germany on subsequent tiebreakers
- Slovenia
- Win their match vs Germany OR
- Win their match vs Sweden OR
- Draw both matches vs Sweden and Germany, and then beat either Germany or Sweden in the 3 way tiebreakers