The Final Match Day is today and the scenarios for finishing 1st or 2nd in the competition could get a little complicated. Canada or the USA will finish 1st, but it’s still possible for those teams to finish 3rd. Mexico and Greenland also have chances to finish 2nd. Here’s my attempt to simplify the possibilities. And, I should emphasize that while I think my calculations are correct they are by no means official.
First off, I’m going to assume that the U.S. will defeat winless St Kitt’s & Nevis in the 2nd game of the day. Considering the scorelines for the first four matches this is a pretty same assumption.
The first match of the day, however, between Mexico and Puerto Rico is more up in the air. If Mexico wins they will finish with 7 points and there will be 3 different tie breaking scenarios for the result of the Canada – Greenland match (CAN win, GRL win and CAN-GRL draw). And, then there are also 3 different scenarios if Mexico loses or draws vs Puerto. Here’s a look at the 6 different scenarios
Scenarios 1A, 1B and 1C: Mexico Loses or Draws vs Puerto Rico
If Mexico fails to defeat Puerto Rico in the first match of the day, here are the 3 relatively straightforward scenarios for the final match of the day:
- 1A (Canada defeats Greenland)
- Canada finishes 1st with 8 pts; USA finishes 2nd with 7 points
- 1B (Greenland defeats Canada)
- USA and Greenland finish with 7 pts
- Tiebreaker (USA defeated Greenland) USA 1st, Greenland 2nd)
- USA and Greenland finish with 7 pts
- 1C (Canada – Greenland draw)
- Canada and USA finish with 7 pts
- Tiebreaker (Canada defeated USA) Canada 1st, USA 2nd
- Canada and USA finish with 7 pts
Scenarios 2A, 2B and 2C: Mexico Wins vs Puerto Rico
If Mexico defeats Puerto Rico in the first match of the day, here are the 3 more complicated scenarios for the final match of the day:
- 2A (Canada defeats Greenland)
- Canada finishes 1st with 8 pts; USA and Mexico finish 2nd with 7 points
- Tiebreaker (USA defeated Mexico) USA 2nd, Mexico 3rd
- Canada finishes 1st with 8 pts; USA and Mexico finish 2nd with 7 points
- 2B (Greenland defeats Canada)
- USA, Mexico and Greenland finish with 7 pts
- Tiebreaker 1 (Points in the common matches: USA defeated Greenland, 31-22; USA defeated Mexico, 22-21; Mexico and Greenland played to a 26-26 draw) USA 1st with 4 pts; Greenland and Mexico with 1 pt each; go to 2nd tiebreaker
- Tiebreaker 2 (Goad Differential in the common matches: USA +10; Mexico -1; Greenland -9) Mexico 2nd, Greenland 3rd
- USA, Mexico and Greenland finish with 7 pts
- 2C (Canada – Greenland draw)
- Mexico, Canada and USA finish with 7 pts
- Tiebreaker 1 (Points in the common matches) Canada defeated USA, 26-22; USA defeated Mexico, 22-21; Mexico defeated Canada, 35-34) All 3 teams with 2 points each; go to 2nd tiebreaker
- Tiebreaker 2 (Goad Differential in the common matches: Canada +3; Mexico 0; USA -3) Canada 1st, Mexico 2nd, USA 3rd
- Mexico, Canada and USA finish with 7 pts