Champions League Analysis

Week 4 has concluded and here’s an update on who’s in, who’s out, and who’s hanging on.

Group A: Portland San Antonio and Vezsprem will advance, but the top seed is still undecided. Portland San Antonio has a 7 goal advantage, but Veszprem hosts the return leg.

Group B: Ciudad is in control and on their way to a 6-0 record. Kadetten Schaffhausen’s is in the driver’s seat to take 2nd place after securing an away draw at Hungary’s Pick Szeged. For Pick to advance they will likely need to beat Kadetten Schaffhausen in Switzerland.

Group C: Kolding should win the Group and Chambery appears to have the inside track to 2nd place. As they have been hot and cold, though, I wouldn’t be surprised for Wisla Plock to beat Chambery when they host them in November. As the Group play tiebrakers are head to head competition and then head to head goal differential 2nd place will likely come down to the Plock-Chambery aggregate, meaning that Plock will need to win by 9. Advantage- Chambery, but not out of the question for Plock

Group D: I’m going to backtrack a little on my earlier analysis. In losing by only 5 goals to Medvedi on Saturday, Zagreb did secure the head to head advantage against Medvedi. Medvedi, however, still controls their own destiny. If Zagreb loses to Flensburg in week 5, Medvedi can still advance with a win or tie against Flensburg in week 6. If Zagreb beats Flensburg, Medvedi can advance if they also beat Flensburg by 3 goals more than Zagreb did the previous week. As Skopje will probably lose every match the tiebreaker for a 3 way tie is points, followed by Goal Differential in the matches involving all 3 teams. Currently, those standings look like this.

Flensburg: 2 wins; 0 losses; +12 Goal Differential
Zagreb: 1 win; 2 losses; -5 Goal Differential
Medvedi: 1 win; 2 loses; – 7 Goal Differential

Group E: Kiel has this group wrapped up and should finish with a 6-0 record. GOG Svendborg should take 2nd as their 16 goal win against Constanta on Sunday gives them the head to head aggregate should they tie for 2nd.

Group F: Gummersbach and Celje will advance. Gummersbach won the first leg match against Celje by 3, but the 2nd match is in Slovenia. This is a toss-up as far as I’m concerned.

Group G: Barcelona is in control and appears to be headed to a 6-0 finish. 2nd place should be a showdown between Gold Club Kozina and Hammarby. Hammarby will likely need to win at Kozina in week 6 to advance.

Group H: Montpellier should be sending complimentary wine to A1 Bregenz thanking them for their draw on Saturday vs Valladolid. For the second year in a row (last year they upset Madgeburg) it appears that this Austrian Club has pulled off an unexpected result to give Montpellier a top seed. Now instead of having to turn around a 9 goal aggregate deficit against Valladolid all they have to do now is simply beat them at home.

Note: The Champions League and most National leagues are off next week as National Team competition takes center stage. Week 5 will start with the Thursday matches on 2 November.

Projecting the Seeds

Likely # 1 Seeds
Ciudad Real

#1 or #2 Seeds (aggregate will decide)
Portland San Antonio or Veszprem
Gummersbach or Celje

Likely #2 Seeds
GOG Svendborg

Battle for #2 Seeds
Kadetten Schaffhausen or Pick Szeged
Chambery or Wisla Plock
Zagreb or Chehovskie Medvedi
Hammarby or Gold Club Kozina