Preview and Odds for the 2017 Men’s World Championship

The Arch of Triumph lit up as a handball goal. The world's dominant team for the past decade is hosting the World Championship, but for the first time in years I'm predicting they'll come up short.

The Arch of Triumph lit up as a handball goal. The world’s dominant team for the past decade is hosting the World Championship, but for the first time in years I’m predicting they’ll come up short.

The 2017 Men’s World Championships starts this Wednesday with hosts France taking on Brazil in the opening match.  Here is some analysis and odds courtesy of the online betting site bet365.com: Link 

Odds to win the championship and odds to finish in the top 3

The Usual Suspects  
France                  1/1         1/5
Denmark             4/1         13/20
Spain                    6.5/1      6/5
Germany              8/1         8/5
Croatia                 12/1       9/4

These 5 sides are strong contenders for the title.  As the host France is an even money favorite and at 1/5 to medal they are a virtual lock to make the semifinals.  France would likely be the favorite if the championships were being staged in another country, but it certainly wouldn’t be as overwhelming.  Personally, I think France is the most vulnerable they’ve been in years.  They still are the best side, but they aren’t as deep as they used to be and the old guard is starting to show signs of age.  Perhaps newer players like Mahe and Remili will step up, but that remains to be seen.  And, this side will be under pressure with new coaches (Dinart and Gille) and the expectation that nothing other than gold will suffice.  Denmark, with an Olympic Gold Medal in its possession has the confidence to know that they can beat France as do Spain and Germany.

The Other Guys
Slovenia               30/1       11/2
Norway                40/1       8/1
Qatar                    40/1       8/1
Sweden                40/1       8/1
Hungary               60/1       11/1
Poland                  60/1       11/1
Russia                   60/1       11/1
Iceland                 70/1       13/1

These 8 sides are solid picks to make the round of 16, but making it to the semifinals could probably be considered a solid accomplishment for these 8 teams.

The Outsiders
Brazil                    200/1     30/1
Egypt                    250/1     40/1
Macedonia          250/1     40/1
Argentina            500/1     100/1
Belarus                500/1     100/1
Tunisia                 500/1     100/1
Japan                    1000/1  200/1

These 7 sides will  be looking to make the round of 16.  Advancing to the quarters would hinge on a major upset.  Making the semifinals would be a major achievement.

The Out-Outsiders
Angola                  2000/1  500/1
Bahrain                2000/1  500/1
Chile                     2000/1  500/1
Saudi Arabia       2000/1  500/1

These 4 sides have probably already booked their transportation to Brest and the President’s Cup.

Here a closer look at the odds (in parentheses) to win each group and my prediction as to the Final Standings

Group A
1) France (1/10)
2) Norway (8/1)
3) Brazil (18/1)
4) Poland (25/1)
5) Russia (14/1)
6) Japan (100/1)

I think Brazil will surprise here, taking advantage of a new look Polish roster and an inconsistent Russian team.  They also played well at the Olympics and the past few World Championships.

Group B
1) Spain (2/9)
2) Slovenia (7/2)
3) Tunisia (30/1)
4) Macedonia (20/1)
5) Iceland (15/1)
6) Angola (100/1)

Wael Jallouz and Tunisia will take advantage of the home crowd.  Expect more than a few Tunisian and French citizens of Tunisian descent in attendance.  Jallouz has shown at Barca how he can take over a game.  Expect him to do just that against Macedonia and Iceland.   Iceland might raise a cup at the WC, but minus Aron Palmarsson it may well be the President’s Cup.

Group C
1) Germany (19/20)
2) Croatia (21/20)
3) Hungary (13/2)
4) Belarus (50/1)
5) Chile (300/1)
6) Saudi Arabia (300/1)

I think this Group will simply follow the oddsmaker’s ranking.  Germany’s hard nosed defense will prevail over Croatia and Hungary.  Chile has an outside shot at upsetting Belarus for a round of 16 opportunity.

Group D
1) Denmark (1/7)
2) Sweden (7/1)
3) Egypt (30/1)
4) Argentina (50/1)
5) Qatar (7/1)
6) Bahrain (300/1)

Can Qatar with one of the world’s best coaches and goalkeepers continue their successful runs in international competition?  No, not with their depleted roster of court players.  Egypt and Argentina will pip Qatar and send them to the President’s Cup.

Projecting the Semifinals and Champion

A lot of handball will be played over the next 10 days so predictions at this point are real hazardous.  Still I’ll go out on a limb and project that France will come up short in it’s quest for a 5th title.  Followers of this website will note that this is quite a departure for me as I have consistently picked France to win every title for the past 10 years or so.  Not that was exceedingly brave.  As I declared over and over, if you have the best GK (Omeyer), best court player (Karabatic) and best defender (Dinart) you should win.  Throw in Narcisse, Fernandez and Abalo as a supporting cast and it was an embarrassment of riches.  But, father time is starting to kick in.  Dinart is now coach, Omeyer is 40 and Karabatic at 32 is starting to seem more human on the court.  Why Hansen and Duvnjak might even be better now.  Maybe the new supporting cast will step up, but I’ve got my doubts.  Maybe the home court advantage will give the old guard one more title, but again I’ve got my doubts.

Right now I’ll project Germany giving coach Sigurdsson a parting gift victory over France in the semifinals and Denmark knocking off Spain in the other. Then Denmark topping Germany in the Final.

USA’s Nico Mukendi Training with Spain’s #2 Club, Naturhouse La Rioja

Team USA's, Nico Mukendi, in action this past summer at the Pan American Championships in Argentina

Team USA’s, Nico Mukendi, in action this past summer at the Pan American Championships in Argentina

Team USA’s, Nico Mukendi is currently training in Spain with the professional club, Naturhouse La Rioja.  Naturhouse La Rioja, located in Logrono, is currently in 3rd place in Spain’s top professional league, the Liga Asobal and for the past few years has been considered the #2 club in Spain, behind perennial powerhouse FC Barcelona. La Rioja is also in 2nd place in Group C of the Champions League (Group’s C/D are a notch below the elite pro squads in Groups A and B.)

Mukendi, age 23, is a native of Hillsborough, NJ and has been with the Residency Program in Auburn since it was established in 2013.  He was identified in 2012 after he broke the record on a performance test conducted by Athletic Standard.  Since joining the program he has participated in several junior and senior national team competitions.  A back court player, he will be practicing with La Rioja informally for 3 days to help assess his development as a player.

Commentary:  This is a great development for USA Team Handball and hopefully he is just the first in a steady stream of players heading to Europe to be evaluated by top clubs.  More importantly, he is one of the few athletes that have joined the Residency Program straight out of high school.  This is important as it takes several years of training to develop technical handball skills and pro clubs are less interested in further developing athletes in their mid to late 20s.  More athletes with his combination of age/athletic ability are needed if the Residency Programs are ever to be successful.

Marca.com article (in Spanish): Link

Athletic Standard video on Mukendi: Link

Commentary on Handball Training Academies in Europe:  Link  (This commentary from 2014 includes a fake news story about Mukendi signing a professional contract in Denmark.)

Podcast:  Netherlands Women’s Handball: How their 10 Year Development Plan Has Vaulted them in to the World’s Elite

How has the Netherlands moved to the top of the pyramid in Women's Handball? By building a pyramid in the Netherlands first.

How has the Netherlands moved to the top of the pyramid in Women’s Handball? By building a pyramid in the Netherlands first.

It wasn’t too long ago that Netherlands Women’s Handball could diplomatically be described as mediocre.  Now thanks to their 5-1 record in preliminary and main round play they are in the semifinals of the European Championships.  Their 3rd consecutive semifinals in a major competition (2015 WC, 2016 Olympics)

How has this remarkable turnaround been accomplished?

To find out I spoke with Netherlands Handball Technical Director, Sjors Rottger and National Team player Lois Abbingh.  Rottger describes the 10 year plan that has been implemented to identify athletes at younger ages and then provide them with the training they need to eventually sign professional contracts by age 19 to 21.  Abbingh reflects on her time at the Handball Academy in Arnhem and how it prepared her for international play and a pro career.

The Netherlands takes on Denmark tomorrow (Friday, 16 December) at 1815 (CET), 1215 (U.S. East Coast) and the match can be seen live on ehftv.com.  The Gold and Bronze medal matches will be on Sunday, also on ehftv.

Netherlands Handball Vision: Link

Lois Abbingh Official Website: Link

 

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Swedish Immigrant to Try Out for U.S. Women’s Team

Elina Linner, shown here playing beach handball will be trying out for the U.S. Women's team next weekend.

Elina Linner, shown here playing beach handball, will be trying out for the U.S. Women’s court team next weekend.

The Desert Sun newspaper, based in Palm Springs, California has an article/video on a potential new member of the U.S. Women’s National Team, Elina Linner.

Desert Sun (9 Dec 2016) La Quinta graduate a unique talent in an unusual sport: Link

Linner played for several years in Sweden for her club team, Lödde Vikings,  prior to immigrating to the U.S. two years ago.  She has been practicing with the LA Team Handball club and is attending tryouts in Auburn next weekend.  Linner, also has a fundraising site to help support her efforts: Link

EHF Magazine Features Brazilians in the Champions League

Brazil's 22 year old plays right back for Poland's Wisla Plock. 1 of 5 Brazilians featured in EHF Inside the Game feature.

Brazil’s Jose Toledo plays right back for Poland’s Wisla Plock. 1 of 5 Brazilians featured in EHF Inside the Game feature.

The European Handball Federation (EHF) weekly highlights show includes an “Inside the Game” segment which often includes behind the scenes interviews with players and coaches.  This past week’s segment focused on Brazilian handball players in the Champions League.  Currently, there are 5 Brazilians playing for Champions League Clubs.  They are:

  • Gabriel Jung, Barcelona, Right Back, 19
    Haniel Langaro, La Riolla (Logrono), Left Back, 21
    Jose Toledo, Plock, Right Back, 22
    Rogerio Ferreira, Vardar, Circle Runner, 22
    Thiagos dos Santos, Szeged, Left Back, 27

The video feature can be seen here: Link

Commentary: Four of those players are age 22 or younger and are playing and practicing with some of the top clubs in the world.  This is a testament to the grass roots programs that Brazil has established if they can develop talent that top clubs are willing to sign and further develop as players.

It will be very challenging for the U.S. to take athletes that are older than those players, that have barely played handball before, train them in the U.S. where there is not quality competition, and then beat Brazil in an Olympic qualification match.   And, trust me, “challenging” is a diplomatic choice of words.

All is not doom and gloom, however.  In the most recently posted USA Team Handball Board Meeting minutes it is noted that U.S. Men’s coach Javier Garcia would like to see the players do 1-2 years in Auburn and then head to Europe for competition.  And, that players need to improve in quality in order to facilitate their integration in teams overseas.

For me, this was a sign of a potential change in focus for the residency program at Auburn, away from National Team preparation and more towards athlete development.  Perhaps, not to dissimilar from my commentary two years ago suggesting that the national team residency program at Auburn be rebranded and as a development academy focused on younger athletes with greater potential.  The sooner we can get such a pipeline to Europe going the better our chances will be of competing against the likes of Brazil and Argentina.  Who knows?  Maybe, one day in the not too distant future we’ll see an “Inside the Game” feature on up and coming Americans playing on Champions League Clubs.

 

Podcast:  Redbirds Rising: Coach Ross Miner talks Illinois St Handball

Illinois State Redbirds after winning the 2016 Buckeye Classic.  Coach Ross Miner is in the back row at the far right.

Illinois State Redbirds after winning the 2016 Buckeye Classic. Coach Ross Miner is in the back row at the far right.

The Illinois St Redbirds won the Ohio State Buckeye Classic Tournament last weekend, their first ever major tournament title.  Coach Ross Miner talks about the tourney, the Team Handball Nation website, his experience at the Aarhus Academy and how he got into coaching.

And, what’s a podcast without a little controversy so we try to answer a couple of questions:

  • Is Illinois St is poised to crack into the top 3 hegemony (West Point, Air Force, North Carolina) that has dominated collegiate handball for the last 20 years? (I try to get a little bulletin board material)
  • Should the weekend tournament format for competition should be scrapped in favor of league play?

Some related links to topics discussed
Podcast on the Aarhus Academy: Link
The college handball club graveyard: Link

Sponsor of this week’s podcast:  Team Handball Nation:  “Your U.S. based source for balls, handball shoes and socks”: Link

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Trump’s Victory and its Impact on Handball in the U.S.

makehandballgreatagain

How will the trump victory impact USA Team Handball?

I could be wrong, but I would guess that the somewhat insular Donald Trump is not familiar with the sport of Team Handball.  Perhaps his Slovenian wife has educated him, but more than likely the only handball this native New Yorker is familiar with is the wall version more commonly known in the U.S.  One might think, therefore, that the Trump Presidency will have no impact whatsoever on the sport in the U.S.

But, that neglects taking into account the role that a U.S. President has indirectly or directly in the upcoming IOC host city selection for the 2024 Olympics.  And, should Los Angeles become the host city for the 2024 Olympics, make no mistake, that would be a huge deal for USA Team Handball.  For starters, the U.S. would automatically qualify both its men’s and women’s team.  Overnight this reality would improve recruiting dramatically.  Exposure for the sport would increase and sponsors that wouldn’t give USA Team Handball the time of day before would suddenly be interested in contributing to the sport’s bottom line.  Effortlessly, handball would get a nice little boost.  And with a smart strategic plan the Olympics could even be the catalyst that transforms handball from an unknown oddity to the next lacrosse or rugby.  This series of commentaries provides a broad outline of what that strategy might look like: Link

All well and good, but does a Trump Presidency help or hurt the U.S. chances?  Well conventional wisdom is that it has to hurt.  Donald Trump was able to surprise the pundits and the pollsters by energizing rural America to turn out in greater numbers than anyone expected.  The “coastal elites” were shocked with the result.  The IOC election, however, will hinge around the opinions of around 95 IOC Board Members.  A board that is top heavy with Europeans who probably can be considered to be a lot more coastal elite than salt of the Earth Midwesterner in their outlook.

But, that’s conventional wisdom.  A number of pundits like Olympics commentator, Alan Abrahamson, are more optimistic.  Here are some of the reasons supporting the notion that it doesn’t matter who the President is:

  • It doesn’t matter who’s in charge of a particular country and some pretty autocratic nations have won Olympic host city elections recently.
  • Obama was well liked, but the U.S was still humiliated when its 2016 Chicago bid lost in the first round of voting in 2009.
  • IOC electors know that the U.S. could very well even have another President in charge by the time 2024 rolls around.
  • France has its own Presidential election coming up and Marine Le Pen, if elected, might be even more unpalatable to an IOC voter.
  • Trump, if he does play an active role in the bid, is a better schmoozer than people give him credit for.

Still, I for one, have a hard believing that the reality of Donald J. Trump, President of the United States won’t be an overall net effect in the hearts and minds of IOC voters.  Certainly, I don’t see him working the room and changing votes come next September in Lima, Peru the way that Tony Blair did in 2005 for the London 2012 vote.

Betting Markets

Aside from punditry, there is also the betting markets where people can put money down on which city will win.  This site currently lists the odds as:

Paris .62 to 1
LA 2.25 to 1
Budapest 4.5 to1

So, Paris is a better than even money favorite and L.A. is a more than 2-1.  Since the election the odds have shifted a bit in the favor of Paris, but they aren’t much different than they were before the election.  And, strikingly these odds are quite similar to the U.S. Presidential election odds, which suggested that Trump would win 1 out of 3 times.  Maybe lightning will strike twice.  Let’s make handball great again.

 

Additional articles on LA’s prospects in light of the Trump victory:

LA Times: Link
Sports Illustrated: Link

 

France 38 – Belgium 37:  Huh? What?  How did that happen and what can be gleaned from that outcome?

Belgian Captain, Arber Qerimi, scores one of his 7 goals in their near upset of the World Champions

Belgian Captain, Arber Qerimi, scores one of his 7 goals in their near upset of the World Champions

ehfTV has a lot of matches available in its “on demand” bin and sometimes it takes me awhile to getting around to watching them. A couple of days ago I decided to check out the Belgium – France Euro 2018 qualification match.  I generally prefer to watch matches oblivious to the final outcome and I had avoided the final score of this match.  As if, it really mattered.  Belgium is one of the weaker teams in Europe.  Mostly amateurs and just qualifying for the Group Stage is a major achievement.  Meanwhile France has been consistently the best team in the world for the past 10 years or so.  I figured that I would watch a few minutes of this curiosity and then move along to the next match.  Well, that didn’t happen.  I kept waiting and waiting for a blowout that never happened. Why if Belgium hadn’t lost their team captain, Arber Qeremi, to a red card maybe they would have even won.  How did this happen and what can be gleaned?

The 7 Court Player Strategy for Huge Underdogs

Well, we’ve all seen the impact of the new rule allowing any court player to substitute for the goalie.  Most teams when down a man now empty the net and play with 6 on offense.  And, occasionally we’ve seen teams attack with 7 court players, but this was the first national team match where I’ve seen it pretty much used the entire game.  Most interestingly, it’s the first time I’ve also seen it implemented by an overmatched underdog.  And, Belgium player per player was clearly overmatched.  There’s no doubt in my mind that not a single Belgian player could make the French roster.  Heck, it’s doubtful that any Belgian player would make a roster depth chart that went 10 deep into the French national talent pool.

But, the 7 court player strategy evened out that lack in talent dramatically.  With the extra player Belgium was able to score consistently.  How else to explain 37 goals?  37!  And, they controlled the tempo and had France totally out of their game.  It’s a high reward, high risk strategy, but in this one game the rewards far outweighed the risks.

And, it’s surely a strategy to be duplicated (if, it hasn’t already) by overmatched squads everywhere.  What would Team USA have to lose against Brazil, for instance?  If you’re going to get scored upon anyway at the defensive end, you might as well dramatically increase your scoring percentage at the offensive end.  Sure, you might end up with an uglier score line than you would get with a more conventional game.  But, you also might take a good team down to the wire.

It will be very interesting to see how this tactic plays out in the years to come.  It’s surely to be tried again, but most likely top teams will be better prepared to punish this strategy.  Which leads to a big question mark regarding the French national team.

What’s Going on with France?

France’s inability to secure an easy victory against a team composed almost entirely of amateurs raises some big time questions.  Most notably, why wasn’t the team better prepared?  Why couldn’t the team adapt to the situation?  Here are a few possible answers to that question.

Answer #1) Coach Dinart and Coach Gille are not Ready for Prime Time

Let me go on the record and state what I think is a factual statement:  Didier Dinart is the greatest of all time defensive handball player.  In his prime, for sure, there can be no serious debate that anyone was better at clogging up offenses in the middle of the crease.  It doesn’t show up in a score sheet, but France’s success on the national level for a decade can be closely correlated to his presence.  Heck, to a large extent he created the position of defensive specialist.  Guillame Gille wasn’t quite the player that Dinart was, but he was a reliable mainstay in the backcourt for several years.

But, great players don’t necessarily make great coaches.  And Dinart and Gille have being given the reins to arguably the most historic national team dynasty without either having been a head coach before.  That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in my opinion.  Sure Dinart has been at Claude Onesta’s side for a couple of years, but that’s no substitute for striking out on your own at some club team and doing the day to day preparation and making the game time adjustments necessary to being a successful coach.  Additionally, and as a former defensive specialist myself I hate to say it, Dinart might well lack the expertise to make smart offensive adjustments.

I’m not sure how the French Federation came up with its succession plan, but I can guess that there’s a few head coaches in the LNH who’ve been plying their trade for years wondering why they didn’t get a shot.  Patrice Canayer of Montpellier certainly has a long track record.

Answer #2) Enough with the Co-Coaching Cop Out

Here’s a list of the great co-coaching duos from all major sports:  crickets, crickets, crickets.  There’s a reason for this:  It just doesn’t work.  There’s a reason virtually all teams have one head coach, businesses have one CEO and nations have one political leader.  You can have debate on the decisions to be made, but there can be only one decider.  And one person ultimately responsible for success or failure.  And, this person has to be clearly identified and given the authority to do their job.  France needs to pick one coach and go with it.

Answer #3) Maybe the New Additions to the Roster aren’t that Good

Finally, maybe the close game has more to do with the players, rather than the coaching.  France did a little experimenting with its roster mixing some newcomers with veterans.  Time was when it didn’t seem to matter a whole lot who was on the court as long as Karabatic was there to direct traffic and make everyone around him look better.  Heck, I’ve joked at times that I could be a decent left back on the French National team if Karabatic was at center.  Well, I think there are some cracks in this maxim.  Karabatic is still a great player, but at 32 he’s showing some signs of age and he’s not quite as unworldly as he has been in the past.  And, the new additions in the backcourt aren’t quite up to Jerome Fernandez and Daniel Narcisse quality.  Or even Accambray level for that matter.  Maybe they will be someday, but they’re not there yet.

Premature Obituary?

It’s usually a mistake to look at one match and to conclude that the house is on fire.  Still, a 38-37 win over Belgium for the defending world champs is a huge red flag.  For a decade or so, France has been the team to beat at every major tournament.  They’ll be hosting the World Championships in France in January, so surely they’ll be favorites again.  But, for once I’m not so sure that’s fully justified.

The International Handball Goalkeeper Camp: The Chance of a Lifetime for this American Goalkeeper

USA goalie Joey Williams with Hungary’s Roland Mikler, fellow camper, Alex Djurdjevic, and getting tips from Croatia’s Mirko Alilović

USA goalie Joey Williams with Hungary’s Roland Mikler, fellow camper, Alex Djurdjevic, and getting tips from Croatia’s Mirko Alilović

Joey Williams is a 20 year old goalkeeper from Farmington Hills, Michigan. He plays for the Hope College Team Handball club, and was a member of the U.S. Junior National Team for the 2015 Partille Cup in Sweden. Last summer he attended the International Handball Goalkeeper Camp in Croatia and the following is his account of his experience.

One of the many perks of handball is that it presents the opportunity to connect with new people and places through a shared love of the sport. As the level of competition increases, so do the opportunities to make lifelong memories and friendships. For an American goalkeeper, chances to get proper coaching and bonding time with fellow keepers are few and far between. However, for one week this past summer, I was able to both meet goalkeepers from across the globe and receive personalized coaching from some of the best goalkeepers and coaches on the planet. To any goalkeeper seeking to bring their game to world-class standards, I would recommend attending the 2017 International Handball Goalkeeper Camp in Split, Croatia.

Split, Croatia is somewhere I never imagined myself traveling to when I first started playing handball in 2012. I discovered the camp while scouring the internet for handball drills, and was at first hesitant to travel half-way across the world for a sport that my friends were convinced that I had made up. Further research into the camp’s coaching staff (which had included superstars like Thierry Omeyer, Mirko Alilovic, and Roland Mikler, to name a few) and the realization that time was ticking away at my dream of playing professional handball convinced me that I had no choice but to attend. After months of frugal saving and hernia-inducing lawn work, I was on my way.

My leap of faith had paid off immediately as I brushed shoulders with handball superstar Nikola Karabatic when I was picking up my bags at the Split airport (a complete coincidence considering he was not affiliated with the camp, but I took it as a blessing from the handball gods nonetheless). From there, the sense of awe and wonder only continued. My driver happened to be German national who played professional American football in Germany (ironic,right?). It was difficult for me to chat about football or handball though, because I was busy picking my jaw up from the ground as I gazed at the scenery on either side of the road. To our right were striking mountains that provided a geographic backdrop to the city of Split, while to our left was the stunning blue of the Adriatic Sea. When I arrived for the opening meeting I was greeted by a round of applause from about 100 parents, campers, and coaches as handball goalkeeper guru Vanja Radic pointed me out as being the first American to attend the camp (and probably the first American handball player many of them had ever seen in person up to that point). Although being the lone American did little to help my handball skills, it did provide me with some humility that comes from both being a newcomer to the game and a representative of my country. Not to mention a level of gratitude that came from finally being immersed in the world of handball goalkeeping.  

The week was filled with sweat, memories, and more sweat. We had 2 training sessions a day with different coaches and a new emphasis at each session. The coaching staff included a variety of legendary coaches and players. Coaches Haris Porobic (KC Veszprem), Vladimir Vujovic (Croatian National Team),Vlatko Đonovic (Buducnost), and many others led practices and provided input and guidance for campers. Roland Mikler (KC Veszprem), Jelena Grubisic (Bucharesti), and Mirko Alilovic (KC Veszprem) both demonstrated drills and offered feedback to players. Some of the world’s finest young goalkeepers were in the mix among the campers. Egypt’s junior national team goalkeeper, a former Mauritius national team keeper, and an 18-year Serbian who rose through the ranks of Veszprem to be on the first team behind Mikler and Alilovic, were in attendance. Campers and coaches alike were able to bond during the 2 hour training sessions as well as during a half day boating excursion to a few of Croatia’s thousands of islands.

In addition to physical development, the camp offered a unique opportunity for both mental and social growth. Karina Aas, a sports psychologist for several Norwegian national teams, lectured on ways to increase mental toughness and resilience in both goalkeeping and life. I gained a lot of confidence and perspective from these sessions and they were definitely a highlight for me. Socially,  I was able to make friends with people from all over the world, from Scandinavia to Egypt. My friends Eske, Alex, Ludwig, Lovro, Sindre, and Magnus immediately took me in as one of their own both on and off the court. Their patience, kindness, and knowledge of the sport made my time in Croatia exponentially more memorable and fun.

In addition to creating new friends, this camp created an opportunity to expand my handball network, which is essential for anyone aspiring to play handball in Europe. The connections I made both personally and professionally, in addition to the experience and expertise I gained, made attending the 2016 International Handball Goalkeeper camp an incredible investment. To any handball goalkeepers seeking to take the next step in their development, make plans to attend the 2017 International Handball Goalkeeper Camp. I’ll see you there.

International Handball Goalkeeper Camp website: Link 

For information or questions, please email me: 14williamsj@gmail.com

Podcast:  Craig Rot Talks Youth Development in the U.S.

USA and Alberta Youth Teams at recent XPS Network North American Cup. Coach Rot is on the far right.

USA and Alberta Youth Teams at recent XPS Network North American Cup. Coach Rot is on the far right.

For the past 7 years Craig Rot has been at the forefront of youth development in the U.S., first in Minnesota and now in the Chicago area.  In this wide ranging podcast we discuss his efforts to introduce handball in schools and his after school program which is starting to produce more technically sound players.  Players that are playing key roles on youth national teams that Rot has coached at the Partille Cup, IHF Challenge Tournaments and most recently a 3 game series vs Alberta.

And, what’s a podcast without a little controversy so we debate the following topics:

  • The pros/cons of focusing on lateral growth to expose the sport at a top level to as many athletes as possible vs more in depth training on a select group
  • The challenge of getting “elite” athletes to play handball vice a more established sport
  • The pros/cons of dual citizen athletes playing on USA youth teams

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USA Beach Handball Men’s National Team vs Brazil

USA and Brazil in action this past weekend.

USA and Brazil in action.

This past weekend the U.S. Beach Handball Men’s National Team traveled to Niterói, Brazil (near Rio de Janeiro) to take on the Brazilian National Team in a couple friendly matches to celebrate Brazil’s first world title in Beach Handball in 2006. The U.S. lost an informal match Saturday 2 sets to 0, and an official match on Sunday, also 2 sets to 0. The score of the first set was 22-16 and the second set was 28-11.

The U.S. roster consisted of Darryl Yarbrough, Ebiye Udo-Udoma, Taylor Lapin, Kenneth McKagan, Bill Bigham, Matt Singletary, Bryan Cook, Ethan Pickett and Michael Hinson. Singletary, Cook, Pickett and Hinson each made their international debut as players. Brazil is a world power in beach handball, placing 2nd at the 2016 World Championships after winning the title in 2006, 2010, 2012 and 2014.

The Sunday match was broadcast on Brazilian TV and when video is made available we will add a link to it.

Canadian National Team in Brazil

Canadian men on defense against Cuba.  Cuba won the match played yesterday in Brazil 35-30.

Canadian men on defense against Cuba. Cuba won the match played yesterday in Brazil 35-30.

This past week the Canadian Men’s National Team traveled to Sao Paulo, Brazil to participate in a 4 Nation tournament with hosts Brazil, Chile and Cuba.  The Canadians finished last, but Coach Alexis Bertrand was quoted on the Brazilian website as being pleased, stating “We need this type of tournament to evolve our handball. It is important for us to play against skilled teams, just so we evolve in the sport.”   Both Brazil and Chile had several of their European based players competing as club teams were on break due to 2018 European Championship qualification matches being played this week.

Results

Friday, 4 November
Chile 37 x 24 Cuba
Brazil 46 x 12 Canada Canada Goals: Vachon (4) Larouche (2), Touzel (2), Chaduvet (1 .) Dupéré (1) Fischer (1) and Rousselle (1)

Saturday, 5 November
Canada 21 x 37 Chile
Brazil 45 x 17 Cuba Canada Goals: Larouche (5), Vachon (4), Touzel (3), Gaudet (2), Rousselle (2), Danulet (1), Van Wijk (1), Mercier (1), Dereck Dupéré (1) e Chauvet (1)

Sunday, 6 November
Brazil 40 x 29 Chile
Cuba 35 x 30 Canada Canada Goals: Vachon (11), Gaudet (7) Rousselle (3), Chauvet (3) Fischer (2) Mercier (2), Gordulic (1) and Dupéré (1).

The EHF Champions League Group Stage:  Mostly Meaningless, but Still Entertaining

In the updated Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, the entry for Earth was changed from “Harmless” to “Mostly Harmless”.  I’ll take a page out of that book and update the importance of Champions League Group Stage games from “Meaningless” to “Mostly Meaningless”.

In the updated Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, the entry for Earth was changed from “Harmless” to “Mostly Harmless”. I’ll take a page out of that book and update the importance of Champions League Group Stage games from “Meaningless” to “Mostly Meaningless”.

ehfTV Commentator Tom O’Brannigain wrote an interesting commentary a while back taking issue with a German blogger Sascha Staat’s characterization of the Group Stage of the EHF Champions League as meaningless.  Staat’s commentary pointed out that there wasn’t much difference between placing 1st or 6th place, rendering many of the matches meaningless.  And, that this was particularly true for the German clubs that had to cope with the more competitive Bundesliga (HBL) while clubs like Barca and Kielce could coast along in their easy national leagues.

O’Brannigain, counterpoint was that it sure didn’t seem that way from his viewpoint watching the hotly contested matches.  He also pointed out that except for last season, the HBL has largely been dominated by Kiel.

Staat has followed up with a counterpoint which I largely agree with.  I hadn’t seen it, though until I was mostly finished with this commentary.  I’ll amplify some key points though as to why the matches are mostly meaningless, but still quite entertaining.

Round of 16 (if seeded after 5 rounds)

First off, as a reference point let’s take a look at what the Round of 16 matchups would be today after just 5 rounds of group play.  Below are the pairings and how the teams would be grouped for quarterfinal matches. (Barca and Kielce are in first place in Groups A and B respectively, so they would both get a bye to the Quarterfinals.)

Barca (A1) Bye
Szeged (B4) vs Flensburg (A5)

Kielce (B1) Bye
Veszprem (A4) vs Brest (B5)

Paris S-G (A2) vs the winner of Logrono (C1)/Besiktas (D2)
R-NL (B3) vs Bjerringbro (A6)

Vardar (B2) vs the winner of Nantes (D1)/Montpellier (C2)
Kiel (A3) vs Kristianstad (B6)

Taking a look at these pairings, I’ll say with around 95% confidence that the quarterfinals would be

Barca (A1) vs Flensburg (A5)
Kielce (B1) vs Veszprem (A4)
Paris S-G (A2) vs R-NL (B3)
Vardar (B2) vs Kiel (A3)

Honestly, I think the only 2 teams capable of crashing the quarterfinal party are Szeged and surprising Nantes.  But, even then it’s a long shot.  Of course, as Zagreb showed last year, anything can happen.  It’s just not likely, though, that an undermanned team will prevail in a 120 minute aggregate format.

While that’s the scenario for the current standings there’s sure to be some fluctuation over the course of the Group Stage.  Still, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to assess that in Group A, there is a significant gap in quality between the top 5 (Barca, Paris, Kiel, Veszprem and Flensburg) and the bottom 3 (Bjerringbro, Plock and Schaffhausen).  At least I will be very surprised if any of those last 3 teams crack the top 5.

Group B is a little harder to read, and overall I think it is significantly weaker than Group A.  With this group I think the separation line is between the top 3 (Kielce, Vardar and R-NL) and the bottom 5 (Szeged, Brest, Kristianstad, Celje and Zagreb.  Maybe Szeged or Brest are above the line, but I’ve got my doubts.

With Groups C and D (also known as the little kids table) I think whoever gets matched up against the 2nd seed in Group B will have a puncher’s chance of making the quarterfinal, particularly if they play Vardar, but it’s still a longshot.

All told, shuffle the standings for the top 5 in Group A and the top 3 in Group B, however you want I’m betting those 8 teams (Barca, Paris, Kiel, Veszprem, Flensburg, Kielce, Vardar and R-NL) will make the quarter-finals.  But, unlike the round of 16 every single one of those quarterfinal clubs will have a realistic expectation of making the final four regardless of who their opponent is.  There won’t be a gimme matchup for any club.

So what’s the point of all this analysis?  Well Staat is wrong when he says it doesn’t matter if you make 1st place or 6th place.  At least it matters, if you want a relatively easy round of 16 matchup.  If you’re a top team in Group A, you can be happy with 5th place, but you’ll want to avoid 6th place.  And, if you’re a top team in Group B, you’ll want to avoid dropping down to 4th place.  But, once you are firmly established in the top 5 of Group A or top 3 of Group B it doesn’t matter very much where you end up.  You’re going to get a Round of 16 match you should win and then you’re going to get a challenging quarterfinal.   But Staat has the right sentiment; Win, lose or draw doesn’t it matter a lot, as long as you don’t slip below the demarcation line.

Odds according to Nordic Bet

And, it’s not just me that’s come up with that analysis.  The oddsmakers also see a huge gap in quality as the odds of winning the title drop off dramatically after the top 8 teams.

Paris 2-1
Veszprem 3.4-1
Barca 4.5-1
Kielce 7-1
Kiel 7-1
Flensburg 11-1
R-NL 11-1
Vardar 12.5-1
Szeged 94-1
Plock 94-1
Brest, Celje, Zagreb, Nantes, Bjerringbro Silkeborg, Logrono, Holstebro, Zaporozhye, Schaffhausen, Bucharest, Medvedi 249-1
Kristianstad, Metalurg, Elverum, Presov, Besiktas, Braga 749-1
Still Entertaining

But, I’ll give O’Brannigain his due regarding the competitiveness of the matches.  Despite the lack of meaning, so to speak, there’s been a lot of quality, entertaining handball being played.  Players are playing hard and they clearly want to win.  There’s even been a few surprise losses to the top 8 teams, but I still have a hard time believing that those top teams will slide below the demarcation lines in their groups.  For sure they won’t rest their best players in a CL match if that’s in danger of happening.

Other Formats to Consider

Staat also has a point regarding too many teams (6 of 8) reaching the knockout stages.  This all but ensures a team with a losing record will advance.  But, the old format with four teams qualifying wasn’t much better.  This is because the groups had more 2nd tier teams, again ensuring that a top team would reach the Round of 16 unless they suffered a total meltdown.  So, basically the only real difference in the format is that the group stages have more matchups between elite teams.  Overall, this is a good thing even if there aren’t any real consequences to these showdowns.

There’s no perfect format for a league, but in principle when the match outcome has significant consequences you’re going get a more compelling match.  This is why the knockout stages of the CL are so compelling.  And, it’s why the Group Stage matches are not.

If you want to make the Group Stages more compelling you will need to have fewer clubs advancing, but the EHF would also need to make the groups stronger top to bottom.  And, right now the only way to do that would be to add some more German Clubs, which wouldn’t make very many people happy.  The German clubs don’t want more challenging matches in the first place and here you would be adding even more German teams to the fray.  Scandinavia and other leagues are already not happy with the creation of Groups C and D and under this scenario they would be totally pushed out.

At the other end of the spectrum, if you really wanted to get radical you could make the knockout stages more compelling by having more matches of consequence between the elite clubs. Why just play two in the Quarterfinals?  Why not a best of 3 or best of 5 NBA format?  Or better yet skip the Final Four weekend and give handball the full NBA treatment:  play a best of 7 for the semis and finals.  That would be phenomenal!

But, I know that won’t be happening anytime soon due to the number of matches that would have to be played and for how it would mess up the domestic league schedules.  Still, I can dream, can’t I?