Champions League Analysis (A Rundown on the Scenarios)

Week 5 has concluded. Here’s a rundown on the scenarios that will determine who’s in, who’s out and who gets a top seed:

[b]GROUP A [/b]
W D L (GD) Points
1. Portland San Antonio 4 0 1 (40) 8
2. MKB Veszprém KC 4 0 1 (37) 8
3. RK "Bosna" Sarajevo 2 0 3 (-11) 4
4. MSK SIRS Povazska Bystr… 0 0 5 (-66) 0

Portland San Antonio lost in Veszprem by 2 this past weekend, but wins the aggregate tie breaker due to winning the first head to head match by 7. Both teams have qualified for the round of 16 and barring a huge upset loss next weekend Portland San Antonio will be in the first pot for the draw on 14 November.

[b]GROUP B[/b]
1. BM Ciudad Real 5 0 0 (34) 10
2. Kadetten Schaffhausen 2 1 2 (0) 5
3. SC Pick Szeged 2 1 2 (-1) 5
4. Brest HC Meshkov 0 0 5 (-33) 0

Ciudad Real has 1st place locked up. Schaffhausen pulled off the biggest surprise of the Champion’s League earlier this season with their away tie at Szeged and will seek to continue their Cinderella story when they host Szeged on Saturday. Schaffhausen – Szeged are level on points, so the winner of the match will advance to the round of 16. In the event of a tie Schaffhausen will also advance due to their 1 goal lead in the next tiebreaker that would apply (Goal Differential in all group games).

[b]GROUP C [/b]
1. KIF Kolding Elite A/S 4 1 0 (35) 9
2. Chambery Savoie HB 3 1 1 (9) 7
3. Crvena Zvezda Beograd 1 0 4 (-14) 2
4. Wisla Plock S.A. 1 0 4 (-30) 2

Despite playing without their leading scorer, Nenad Vuckovick, an inspired Chambery team pulled off an away tie at Kolding. This away tie and Wisla Plock’s loss propels Chambery into the round of 16. Kolding, due to its aggregate 6 goal advantage is guaranteed to finish 1st.

[b]GROUP D [/b]
1. SG Flensburg-Handewitt 5 0 0 (41) 10
2. Chehovskie Medvedi 3 0 2 (12) 6
3. RK Zagreb 2 0 3 4
4. RK Metalurg Skopje 0 0 5 (-50) 0

Flensburg took care of business on Saturday with an away win at Zagreb to guarantee a 1st place finish in the group. Zagreb must now hope that Flensburg will still play hard and win at Chehovski Medvedi on Saturday. If Medvedi wins or ties they will take the 2nd seed. If they lose Zagreb (assuming they take care of Skopje) will advance as they won the head to head aggregate vs Medvedi.

[b]GROUP E [/b]
1. THW Kiel 5 0 0 (58) 10
2. C.S. HCM Constanta 2 1 2 (-17) 5
3. GOG Svendborg TGI Gudme 2 0 3 (18) 4
4. HC Banik OKD Karvina 0 1 4 (-59) 1

Kiel has won the group and barring a colossal upset by Constanta vs Kiel on Sunday, Svendborg will control their own destiny when they play at Karvina, also on Sunday. A Svendborg win or tie will give them 2nd place. A loss will put Constanta in the round of 16.

[b]GROUP F [/b]
1. VfL Gummersbach 5 5 0 0 183 : 146 (37) 10
2. Celje Pivovarna Lasko 5 4 0 1 174 : 141 (33) 8
3. Sandefjord TIF 5 1 0 4 148 : 174 (-26) 2
4. Fram Reykjavik 5 0 0 5 135 : 179 (-44) 0

Gummersbach and Celje will both advance and 1st place will be decided on Saturday in Slovenia. Gummersbach won the first match by 3 so Celje will need to win by 3 to take 1st place. (Note: In the event of a 3 goal win by Celje, Celje will also advance due to the lead they will then have in the next applicable tiebreaker (Goal Differential in all Group Games). While they are currently behind by 4 goals, if they were to win by exactly 3, they will move ahead of Gummersbach, +36 to +34)

[b]GROUP G [/b]
1. FC Barcelona-Cifec 5 0 0 (43) 10
2. RK Gold Club Kozina 2 0 3 (-14) 4
3. Panellinios AC Athens 2 0 3 (-27) 4
4. Hammarby IF HB 1 0 4 (-2) 2

Barcelona has 1st place all wrapped up. 2nd place, however, is still in doubt. Athens is out of the picture unless they pull off a major upset in Barcelona. Which means 2nd will come down to the Gold Club Kozina – Hammarby match on Sunday. If Gold Club wins or ties they will advance on points. If Hammarby wins there will be a 3 way tie in points between Gold Club, Hammarby and Athens. The three way standings are currently

1. RK Gold Club Kozina 2 0 1 (+6) 4
2. Pannellinios AC Athens 2 0 2 (-12) 4
3. Hammarby IF HB 1 0 2 (+6) 2

The resulting 3 way tie would give Hammarby 2nd place due to the fact that they would move ahead of Gold Club on Goal Differential.

[b]GROUP H [/b]
1. CBM Valladolid 4 1 0 (35) 9
2. Montpellier HB 4 0 1 (29) 8
3. HC Portovik Yuzhny 1 0 4 (-26) 2
4. A1 Bregenz HB 0 1 4 (-38) 1

Valladolid and Montpellier will advance and 1st place will be decided on Sunday in Montpellier. Montpellier must win, while Valladolid will take 1st with a draw or a win.

[b]Projecting the Seeds[/b]
(Bold indicates teams that are mathematically locked in as a #1 or #2 Seed)

Top Seeds
[b]Ciudad Real
Kolding
Flensburg
Kiel
Barcelona[/b]
Portland San Antonio

#1 or #2 Seed
Gummersbach or Celje
Montpellier or Valladolid

Likely #2 Seeds
[b]Chambery [/b]
GOG Svendborg
Veszprem

Battle for #2 Seeds
Kadetten Schaffhausen or Pick Szeged
Zagreb or Chehovskie Medvedi
Hammarby or Gold Club Kozina