EHF Euro 2020 Group B Scenarios

Heading into the final match day Group B is… complicated. All 4 teams have a feasible path to qualification. The EHF Euro website has most of the scenarios worked out in this article: Link

Read all the scenarios and there will be a quiz later. I failed the quiz so I put together a table that outlines the 9 basic outcomes based on the two matches to be played.

Group B Top Level Scenarios

Green means advance to the main round, red means eliminated and yellow means further tiebreakers. As you can see there are two such tie breakers and here’s how those break down.

This tiebreaker is relatively simple and also is the only path for Ukraine to go through. If Austria beats North Macedonia, Ukraine will need a two goal victory over the Czech Republic.

If, however, North Macedonia beats Austria and then the Czech Republic beats Ukraine we will have this complicated little gem to work with. And, it all comes down to the margin of victory in that first game. From the chart, if the margin of victory is 2, 3 or 5 there are no more tiebreakers needed. If, however, the margin is exactly 1 or 4 it will be necessary to go to the next tiebreaker: Goals scored in the 3 matches for the two remaining teams.

And, this is where it gets pretty complicated.

For the CZE-MKD tiebreaker the magic number is 31. If Macedonia scores more than 31 goals they pass the Czech Republic on offensive goals (GF) and advance. If they score less than 31 goals, than the Czech Republic goes through.

For the CZE-AUT tiebreaker the magic number is 24. If Austria scores more than 24 they advance. If they score less than 24, the Czech Republic advances.

So, you’re probably wondering in the above two scenarios: What happens if Macedonia scores exactly 31 or Austria scores exactly 24. Well, the next tiebreakers are GD in all games followed by GF in all games. I’ve done the tables for them and guess what… The ties continue and it’s possible that lots could be drawn should the matches have these outcomes tomorrow.

North Macedonia – Czech Republic (Draw Lots)
MKD 31, Aut 30
CZE 26, UKR 25

Austria – Czech Republic (Draw Lots)
MKD 28, AUT 24
CZE 34, UKR 30