The Netherlands and Germany square off today in a Main Round match that both need to win to improve their chances of qualifying for the semifinals.  The Netherlands is a 1.5 goal favorite, but I’m taking them with an alternative handicap bet of -2.5 goals at +155.  Here’s my rationale for this pick.

• The Netherlands are the defending World Champions.  Yes, they miss Estavana Polman big time.  At times during the European Championships it’s been almost painful to watch how anemic their attack has been.  But, after 4 matches they are starting to show some signs of life.  In particular, their 2nd half (15-16) vs Norway on Sunday was a good sign.
• Germany’s match vs Norway, an eye popping 42-23 loss shows what can happen to Germany if things go south a bit.  As, in they can really, really go south.  Could strong defense and goal keeping from Tess Wester lead to a flurry of fast breaks?   Yes, it sure could.
• The only scenario for the Netherlands to make the semifinals requires that there be a 3 way tie at 6 points with the Netherlands, Germany and Croatia.  The Netherlands lost to Croatia 27-25 so they are already at -2.   This hole means that they really need to win by 4 or 5 goals to get their margin up to +2 or +3.  Even higher would be better.

Honestly, if Bet MGM was offering -3.5 or -4.5 I probably would look at putting a wager at that handicap too.