1) Who realistically can make it to the semifinals?
This year’s championships does not have quarterfinals, so the only two places that matter in each main round group is 1st and 2nd . Going 5-0-0 or 4-1-0 (W-D-L) will get you in for sure. 4-0-1 will also likely qualify, with the only negative scenario being a 3 way group tie for first place and losing the goal differential tie breaker. Getting through with a 3-1-1 or 3-0-2 record, however, is a little dice and generally requires the 1st place team going 5-0-0 and the rest of the group knocking each other off.
So with that little math lesson taken care of here’s a quick run down for each group
[b]Group I Current Standings[/b] (3 games left for each team)
France 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Croatia 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Sweden 2-0-1 2 Pts (Win all 3 games and have Croatia beat France)
Hungary 0-1-1 1 Pt (Win all 3 games and have France win all 3)
Slovakia 0-1-1 1 Pt (Win all 3 games and have France win all 3)
S Korea 0-0-2 0 Pts (Win all 3 games, have Croatia win all 3 games and win a tiebreaker at 6 Pts)
I don’t see France losing 2 games. Perhaps Hungary could knock off Croatia and sneak through. Unlikely, but possible. Look for France and Croatia to advance.
[b]Group II Current Standings[/b] (3 games left for each team)
Denmark 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Germany 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Serbia 2-0-1 2 Pts (Win all 3 games and have Denmark beat Germany)
Macedonia 2-0-1 1 2 Pts (Win all 3 games and have Germany beat Denmark)
Norway 0-0-2 0 Pts (Win all 3 games, have Denmark win all 3 and win a tiebreaker at 6 Pts)
Poland 0-0-2 0 Pts (Win all 3 games, have Germany win all 3 and win a tiebreaker at 6 Pts)
This Group is a lot more interesting, as any of these teams can beat one another without it being a major surprise. In fact, I would argue that each of these teams with the possible exception of Macedonia could run the table in the next 3 games. It won’t surprise me one bit if a 3-0-2 record and 6 points is enough to get 2nd place. At that point the tiebreakers, head to head and goal differential will kick in.
2) Can South Korean get 9th place and why does that matter? Yes, this is certainly in the realm of possibility as all they need to do is beat either Slovakia or Hungary to get 5th place in their group and then play in the 9th place match. It matters, because 9th place would give Asia an extra slot at the 2011 World Championships. This assumes, of course, that the IHF doesn’t change the qualification rules.
3) Who’s the biggest disappointment of this year’s tournament? Without question it has to be Spain. 3rd at the Olympics 5 months ago they’ve been banished to the President’s Cup. I’m sure they’re relishing their key matchup against Australia later today. Iker Romero has even apologized to his fellow countrymen: http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_19753.shtml A close second is Russia. Look for those two teams to play each other for 13th place in what are perhaps the two best teams to fail to make it out of the preliminary round.
4) Who’s the biggest surprise of this year’s tournament? 3 teams, Serbia, Macedonia and South Korea share that mantle so far. South Korea has definitely impressed, giving Croatia a scare in the opener and then beating Spain for the first time ever.
Korea Times Article on victory against Spain: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/01/136_38431.html
Macedonia is riding the back of standout Right Back, Kiril Lazarov. Lazarov leads all scorers with 53 goals in 5 matches. Macedonia fans have made the Croatian arenas feel like home and this article indicates that more are on the way for Main Round:
http://www.makfax.com.mk/look/novina/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=2&NrArticle=138724&NrIssue=879&NrSection=10
Serbia, has a more balanced attack and has the greatest potential to continue their success into the main round. They had a surprising loss to Brazil, but were able to bounce back and knock Norway off 27-26. And they should have won their match against Denmark. They led by 7 with 20 minutes left and let Denmark rally for the victory on a last second shot. What will be interesting to see, however, is the reception the Serbs will receive in Zadar. This article notes that the Serb fans were welcomed in Porec, a resort town not to far from Italy. Zadar, however, was attacked by Serbs during the Balkan wars and tensions may be higher there: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/16168/
5) Can anybody stop France? Anything’s possible, but as I’ve said before, if you have the World’s best goalie, Thierry Omeyer, the world’s best court defender, Didier Dinart, and the World’s best all-around player, Nikola Karabatic you are the team to beat. Additionally, the memory of their loss to Germany at the 2007 WC in Germany is still fresh in their minds. They should know what it takes to beat a good team hosting the World Championships. So, if anybody can stop France… it will be themselves.