Bahrain’s failure to win the game gets Iran a place in the World Championship

The background is that three teams qualify, in addition to Qatar, who are the hosts for the 2015 World Championships. With the format now being used in the Asian Championship, this means that the top two teams in each preliminary group qualify not just for the semifinals but also for the World Championship. This is because Qatar is the superior team and is already through to the semifinal from their group prior to the final game tomorrow.

In the other group, the top teams appeared to be Bahrain, Iran and Korea. Iran and Korea tied, 24-24, on the first day. Then Bahrain beat Korea 26-25 two days ago. So from a Korean perspective, today they first needed to win against Saudi Arabia, which they did (28-24), and then they were in the very awkward position of needing to trust Bahrain to defeat Iran. A tie would mean that Bahrain would still win the group and avoid Qatar in the semi-finals, but above all it would mean that Iran would get the second place in the group on better goal difference than Korea.

One can imagine the frustration felt by the Koreans. On several occasions in the past, they have suffered the consequences when some of the West Asians have ‘ganged up’ on them. One just needs to remember the fraud that was perpetrated against the Koreans in the qualifying event for the 2008 Olympic Games. So surely Korea would have reasons to be suspicious. On the other hand, given that Iran is seen by the Bahrain government as the culprit, when the Shiite population in Bahrain is revolting against repression from the Sunni minority regime, one would wonder why a Bahraini team would feel encouraged to give a helping hand to precisely Iran.

But the final result of the Bahrain-Iran game will clearly raise some eye-brows, because the outcome was 30-30, after a 17-14 half-time lead for Bahrain. Of course, the two teams seem relatively evenly matched, so such an outcome could be just a fluke. And judging from reliable reports, there are no indications of manipulation. The Bahraini really seemed to be determined to win the game until the very end. One must hope that this is also the way it was viewed by the Koreans, and that they instead blame their own inability to defeat Iran in the opening game. A flare-up of overt geopolitical fights and accusations is not what the handball world needs.

The Algerians celebrate the victory of their men’s team

When a few days ago I predicted that Croatia, Denmark, France and Spain would move through to the semifinals, I was almost hoping that I would be wrong. An event needs some surprises to have real spark, but no other team was capable of causing any upsets towards the end. Poland came back from a weak start in the tournament, but it was not enough. In the fifth place game they lost against Iceland, who confirmed their remarkable ability to stay in the top group year after year. Sweden collapsed in the key games, and the young Russian team did not have the power and experience to make it all the way.

So in the semifinals, we had some rather thrilling match-ups, with Denmark being pressed by Croatia but holding on for a 29-27 win. The Croatians complained about everything being orchestrated to ensure a Danish win. Perhaps the Croatians have forgotten about the World Championship 2009 when they were the hosts and everyone else complained in the same way; not to mention 2007 in Germany which was even more flagrant. That is, whether we like it or not, part of the home court advantage. In the other semi-final we saw a real ‘roller coaster’, with France prevailing 30-27 against Spain. The bronze medal game was the usual kind of anticlimactic affair, with Spain finding slightly more inspiration and winning 29-28.

But who had expected that the final, in front of a fanatic Danish crowd, would become even more anticlimactic? And that we would have ‘déjà vu’ not just in the sense that the French would win their third European title, but that the Danes would collapse in much the same way they did in the World Championship final in Spain last year!? France pulled away with a 13-4 lead en route to a 23-16 half-time result. At that point, they had scored 23 goals on 26 shots, whereas the Danish attack looked desperate and unimaginative. The second half saw France play tactically smart, keeping the lead to between six and ten goals. In the end, all the back-up players got their chance to be on the court, and the result was 41-32 at the final whistle.

Referees in the final were Raluy/Sabroso from Spain, who had their international break-through three years ago when handling the World Championship final in Sweden. As I saw a former colleague put it in an interview: “they may not make fewer mistakes than other couples, but their style and personality make them more convincing”. Yes, a big part of the referee job is indeed to ‘sell’ your ability and your decisions!

In terms of qualifying for the World Championship in Qatar 2015, all the four teams in the medal games are now qualified. Nine slots remain for Europe, and in the draw for the ‘one-on-one’ qualification battles we got some really intriguing match-ups! The referees will really come under pressure in many cases. What do you think about Poland vs. Germany, or Greece vs. FYR Macedonia, or Hungary vs. Slovenia, and even Russia vs. Lithuania!? The other games may not be such ‘hot potatoes’ from a geopolitical standpoint, but there are no really easy ones among Austria-Norway, Romania-Sweden, Serbia-Czech Rep., Montenegro-Belarus, and Bosnia/Herzegovina-Iceland.

Africa

In Africa, the outcome was, if anything, even more predictable in terms of qualifying for the 2015 World Championships. Perhaps it was not so obvious that Algeria’s men would come out of top, ahead of Tunisia and Egypt, but surely these were the three favorites. Angola was the remaining semi-finalist. Among the women, we will see exactly the same three representatives from Africa in the 2015 World Championship as in 2013. But it may have been a bit of a surprise that Tunisia would be the winner, ahead of Dem. Rep. of Congo and Angola. The key here was a dramatic overtime win in the semifinal for Tunisia over Angola. The home team Algeria was the remaining semi-finalist.

The Serbs can only watch when the French knock them out of the event

Denmark had a relatively easy time, while it was a more close call among the other three teams in the group. However, from the outset it became clear that the Czech team really was not up to the level of its golden days some decades ago. By contrast, the Austrians confirmed the observations from recent months that the have made good progress. In the neighboring group, the reigning world champions from Spain were dominant. Iceland show the effect of missing some key players, and Hungary also failed to impress, but on balance both these teams were strong enough to hold off a very young Norwegian team.

Group C had France as the favorites, but the many injuries and new players on the team had made some observers speculate about a possible surprise. But the French seemed solid (and even had nicer uniforms than the traditional ones…) and won all their games. In my preview I described Russia as the team to watch out for, and their new generation of players with a modern style coach came through, at the expense of the Serbs who were very pale compared with when the played for the home crowd. To nobody’s surprise, Croatia and Sweden were the top teams in group D, with the Croats coming out on top. Belarus managed to beat Montenegro in the game for the final place in the main round.

It is now easy to believe that the four group winners, starting out with four points each, will also be the favorites for the places in the semi-finals. The key games Denmark-Spain and France-Croatia come right at the beginning of the main round. But even the loser in the Denmark-Spain game should be able to hold off the other teams in the group. And it is difficult to imagine that Sweden or Poland should be able to displace the loser from the France-Croatia game. So while the games may be more even and interesting in the main round, chances are that the fight for the semi-final spots will not be so exciting.

The referee performances have been a bit uneven so far. Some of the veteran couples have been unconvincing and some of the couples whose nominations seemed marginal have not been able to justify their nomination. It has been a bit frustrating to see that some decisions seem to come in ‘autopilot’ fashion, without the necessary ability to distinguish between serious fouls and smaller infractions which are exaggerated through ‘theater’ by the ‘victim’.

The competition in Algeria is about to start

The African continental handball federation (CAHB) has 50 members, but only about a dozen of these countries tend to take part in the continental championships; the remaining ones participate in regional African competitions and in the African component of the IHF Challenge Trophy. This time there are 12 participants on the men’s side and eight among the women. The groups in the preliminary round are:

Men A: Tunisia, Egypt, Senegal, Cameroon, Gabon and Libya
Men B: Algeria, Morocco, Angola, Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo and Nigeria
Women A: Algeria, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Cameroon and Senegal
Women B: Angola, Tunisia, Congo and Guinea

Among the women, we have the recent participants in the World Championships in the form of Angola (16th place), Tunisia (17th), and Dem .Rep of Congo (20th). It seems that the only teams which could prevent those three from qualifying yet again in 2015 are the host country Algeria and Cameroon.

On the men’s side, the question is likely to be the perennial one: can anyone else prevent the medal round from turning into a ‘North African Championship’. For the continent’s sake, it would probably be a good thing if this trend could be broken. The best chances for that would seem to rest with Angola and Congo, who might have the strength to knock off Morocco in group B.

Yes, Denmark is the right place for this kind of event!

EURO 2014 for men starts in Denmark on Sunday. The format is the now traditional one with four groups of four teams each. Two groups (in Herning and Aalborg) will play Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday, and two groups (in Aarhus and Copenhagen) will play Monday-Wednesday-Friday. Then in the main round, the top three from the Herning group will play the top three from the Aalborg group, with the same system for the top three from the Aarhus and Copenhagen groups.

The composition of the groups is: A/Herning: Denmark, Czech Republic, FYR Macedonia and Austria; B/Aalborg: Spain, Iceland, Hungary and Norway; C/Aarhus: Serbia, France, Poland and Russia; D/Copenhagen: Croatia, Sweden, Belarus and Montenegro. Yes, you have spotted it: Germany did not qualify for this event, and Slovenia is another prominent absentee.

One factor that could be important for the predictions is the unusual number of injuries and last-minute adjustments to the teams. Some other players who used to be key members of their teams have retired since last time. For instance, the French team may be particularly vulnerable for this reason. But it also means that we have the hope of seeing some emerging stars coming to the forefront. And which countries have the deepest talent pools?

It is difficult to imagine that Denmark is not in a good position to compete for the medals. They will have an enormous support of the spectators and the entire country. Moreover, they start out in what may seem to be the weakest group. Iceland is a team with many question marks, and it is tough to anticipate which team will fail to advance from group B. Group C may be the most difficult one to predict. Russia may be the ‘dark horse’ here. Croatia is probably seen by many as the favorite in group D, and here the team that seems to give the ‘experts’ the headaches in Sweden. Will the Swedes be a serious contender or are they destined for a let-down?

Well, I will stop there and ask YOU: who will be number 1, 2, 3 and 4 in this event? Who will be offer the biggest positive surprise, and who will be the negative surprise? Who will win be the Most Valuable Player, and who will win the scoring title? I cannot offer any fancy prices: the competition is just for the honor…

Is this the right environment for the Olympic Games?

Personally I had to get up to speed quickly on issues related to Sochi a couple of months ago, when I was suddenly ‘asked’ to take on the task of introducing the topic of Sochi and chairing a panel debate, during the Play the Game conference in Denmark. This meant getting ready to manage a dialog on topics such as the following. Please be forewarned, I will basically leave it up to you to answer the questions!

—Was it right that Russia got the Winter Olympics? Most people recognize that Russia has the capacity and is a country with great traditions in winter sports. But we know that the host country gets a great chance to ‘make propaganda’. And it does seem a bit awkward that these days we see mostly countries run by dictators, oligarchs and oil sheikhs in contentions as hosts. On the other hand, who is really in a position to disqualify others, and what potential hosts would be left if we applied very tough criteria?

—But why did they choose Sochi as the site? Unless you can read the mind of President Putin, you may not find a clear answer. The fact that Stalin once had a ‘dacha’ here cannot be the only reason. Sochi is one of the least winter-like sites in the entire country, and it seems that better alternatives would exist. But if propaganda is a factor, then one can see why Putin would feel that Sochi offers a comfortable and attractive setting that should impress the visitors and the TV viewers. And there is no risk for frost-bite!

—Can we expect that the venues for the competitions will be first-rate? This is probably one of the most positive aspects. Assuming that buildings do not collapse due to shoddy construction, everything will be brand new and intended to meet the highest standards. The competition sites are split into two clusters, not far from each other, so transportation should not be a problem either. The Athletes Village seems to have passed inspection with flying colors.

—Did Sochi really have the infrastructure to make it an easy site? Here the answer is clear. Essentially everything has had to be built and provided from scratch, such as roads, railways, airports, power supply, technological capacity, hotels and other facilities for the tourists. Normally, this would be a big negative for a candidate, as the IOC is generally quite concerned about such huge expenditure and the risk that things will not be finished on time.

—Does this not set the stage for major cost over-runs and corruption? These tend to be problem areas for most Olympic hosts, but in Russia it has been much worse than ever. Part of it is the normal level of corruption in the country. But we have the added issue that it is a huge matter of prestige for Putin to finish all projects on time, when everything had to be built. He will not care that the cost overrun is 500% and that half of the money goes into the pockets of people, as long as it is ready by February 6.

—What about reports of mistreatment of the workers? It is hard to know if things are worse than elsewhere in Russia, or in Qatar for the World Cup, as human rights observers have not had much access. The conditions look fine on paper, but if wages are not paid, if the hours are doubled to meet deadlines, if safety measures are non-existent, and proper health care and insurances are lacking, then reports of ‘slave labor’ may not be exaggerated. It is the principle that ‘the end justifies the means’.

—What about security concerns? The good news is that Russia has vast expertise and resources for both heavy-handed and sophisticated efforts. But the bad news is that different ethnic groups and terrorist outfits are beginning to show their intentions to use the Olympics as a target or at least an occasion. It is awkward to know that Sochi is situated not far from known danger zones in the North Caucasus, but it may be of some consolation that the Sochi area might be relatively easy to isolate and protect. There is security zone of 1500 square miles, where nobody without credentials gets in.

—Can one believe that freedom of the press will exist? This is of course in issue in Russia also in normal circumstances, both for Russian media and for foreigners. At my conference, a key Russian participant was from RIA Novosti, the main Russian news agency. But this agency no longer exists. It has been replaced by what looks like a propaganda machine. And it is feared that foreign media will be carefully monitored and restricted beyond a very narrow reporting from the sports events.

—So what about the atmosphere for the athletes and the spectators? It is likely that the legitimate security concerns will become an excuse for managing both athletes and spectators very carefully. The Russians will try to make the security presence less obvious, but monitoring of communications and movements is expected to be part of the picture. I have experienced tough security measures at several Olympic Games, but not to the extent that it has had a negative effect on the atmosphere and the Olympic camaraderie. Here one can have serious doubts, but we will just have to wait and see.

—Will the issue of the new, strict anti-gay laws in Russia have a major impact? Clearly, the IOC has handled this issue very poorly. Russian reassurances have just been taken at face value, and the IOC had claimed that there is no breach of the Olympic Charter. Much will depend on whether any groups or individuals will endeavor to use the event for explicit demonstrations in one direction or the other, well beyond the U.S. gesture of including prominent gay and lesbian ex-athletes in the official delegation. One would think that, after all the attention the issue has had, the Russian authorities will go out of their way to avoid provocations, but the issue has become so full of prestige that it is hard to know.

What the IHF needs are goals, strategies, plans and transparency, NOT a ‘Santa Claus approach’

When I say that it ‘should’ mean good news for the IHF, I deliberately use this cautious expression, because it creates a huge issue regarding how this money should and will be spent. If the IHF were being run properly, this would be a relatively easy task, because such decisions would be taken in a democratic and transparent manner, in accordance with well-established goals, strategies and plans. But sadly this is not the reality of today’s IHF, which is being run in a very different manner. There are essentially no agreed goals, strategies and plans. Moreover, while there is an IHF Council and an IHF Executive Committee, virtually all members of those bodies simply allow the autocratic president to make all the major decisions regarding financial matters. Therefore, we have absolutely no reassurance that the new resources, which are huge by IHF standards, will be used in a systematic, sensible and fair manner. Instead we have reason to worry that, as tends to happen when there is an absence of insight and control, an increase in resources may lead to an increase in waste and corruption.

As I noted when I recently commented on the proposed budget at the IHF Congress, the proportion of the money available that is being used for development efforts around the world is embarrassingly small. Despite the introduction of the IHF Challenge Trophy, and despite recent efforts to by somewhat more systematic and listen to the need of the national federations and the continental confederations, the overwhelming proportion of the IHF resources go towards expenses related to the World Championships, the IHF administration and the remuneration and activities of the IHF top officials. The main reason for the IHF to exist should be the support and development of handball at the grassroots level, especially in the many small and new member countries. Handball now has about 199 member federations, although actual handball activities may be hard to find in many of those countries. So the need for support and resources is enormous, but that is certainly not reflected in the current IHF budget.

Theoretically, therefore it should be easy to find appropriate ways of putting the new resources to good use. I already mentioned the needs of the new and small member federations. But in the context of my comments on recent World Championships, I have also pointed out that we cannot see any trend for the relatively more advanced member federations in Africa, America and Asia to catch up with their European rivals. We must not let the impressive and welcome success of Brazil overshadow the reality that, among the women, the perennial Asian and African powers from Korea and Angola had sunk to 12th and 14th place respectively, with Japan, Tunisia, China and Argentina showing only modest signs of future competitiveness. Apart from Brazil’s many victories, Koreas win against Netherlands in the preliminary round was the only time that a non-European team was able to win against a European opponent. So this group of 10-20 nations, which hypothetically could close the gap with the Europeans in the next 10-20 years, desperately need help in order to have a chance. Another point of focus, as it has recently been suggested by the IHF president, should be the importance of rapid improvement in some of the largest countries such as China, India and the United States. But I very much doubt that the IHF even appreciates the magnitude of the support that would be needed for such an effort to succeed.

Clearly, the IHF would never be able to build up its own personnel resources to such a level that the IHF could directly implement all the global development efforts that the new resources would permit. It would continue to be necessary to draw on experienced and interested technical experts from the advanced handball countries. But the planning and coordination efforts will need to be expanded, and the dialog with the recipients of the support will also require an improved structure and added resources. The member federations, directly and through its representatives within the IHF, simply must step forward now and help ensure that the new resources are put to the best possible use. This is a critical moment and handball cannot afford to miss this opportunity, so the IHF president must be given help in reaching the best decisions and ensuring an efficient implementation.