While only 1 team will claim the title of Champion at the World Championships next week in France, several nations will be playing for 6 spots in 3 Olympic Qualification Tournaments which will take place 28-30 March 2008. The 3 tournaments will consist of 4 teams playing a single round robin over 3 days with the top 2 teams going to the Olympics. Some nations have already earned spots in a qualification tournament, but they will be hoping to improve their chances by placing 2nd to 4th and thereby earning the right to host a tournament. Nations will be assigned to qualification tournaments using the following format:
[b]Tournament 1: [/b]
2nd Place WC (Host)
7th Place WC
2nd Place Europe: Russia
2nd Place PATHF: Cuba
[b]Tournament 2: [/b]
3rd Place WC (Host)
6th Place WC
2nd Place Africa: TBD in January
3rd Place from the Continental Championship for the best Continent at WC (Currently France, Argentina, South Korea or Africa-TBD)
[b]Tournament 3: [/b]
4th Place WC (Host)
5th Place WC
2nd Place Asia: South Korea
3rd Place from the Continental Championship for the 2nd best Continent at WC (Currently France, Argentina, South Korea or Africa-TBD) or Oceania
But it won’t be as simple as taking the teams that finish 2nd through 7th and writing their names in the open space. As some nations have already received automatic qualification for the Olympics they won’t count in the standings. Additionally, there is a hierarchy for each path to qualify, so it’s important that you follow the higher precedence first in order to determine who qualifies. Confused? Let’s follow it step by step:
First, there are 4 ways in which a nation can qualify to participate in the Olympics. Those 4 ways in order of precedence are
Be the host nation (1 slot) ([b]China[/b])
Win the World Championship (1 slot) (TBD)
Win a Continental Championship (4 slots) (Norway, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Africa-TBD)
Place 1st or 2nd in one of 3 Qualification Tournaments (6 slots)
These 4 methods are also in order of precedence. This means that if a nation has qualified via 2 or more methods, its qualification is associated with the higher of the two methods. For example, if the host nation China were to win the World Championship (an unlikely prospect), it would qualify as the host nation, not the World Champion. Similarly, if the European Champion, Norway, were to win the World Championship (a definite possibility) they would qualify for the Olympics as the World Champion. The significance of this precedence order is the bearing it will have on the nations waiting in the wings to secure either an automatic bid or bids to one of the three qualification tournaments. For instance, should Norway with the World Championship, Russia (2nd place at the European Championship) would receive the automatic European slot.
Further complicating matters is that there is an order of precedence to determine who will participate in the 3 qualification tournaments. Nations can qualify for these tournaments in 4 ways
4a) Place 2nd -7th at the World Championships (6 slots)
4b) Place 2nd at their Continental Championship (4 slots)
4c) Place 3rd at their Continental Championship (if their Continent is ranked 1st at the World Championships) (1 slot)
4d) Place 3rd at their Continental Championship (if their Continent is ranked 2nd at the World Championships or Oceania Champion if Oceania places 1-12 at the World Championships) (1 slot)
So, as nations earn their spots at the World Championships the next nation in the pecking order will move up, causing a complex series of musical chairs. Here’s the outlook for the different Nations (grouped by their continent)
[b]EUROPE[/b]
[b]Norway:[/b] Already qualified for the Olympics as the European Champion
[b]Russia:[/b] As the 2nd place team at the European Championship, Russia has already secured an Olympic Qualification tournament bid. Russia, of course, will be looking to win the WC, but the next best think would be a Norwegian victory as that would give them the 1st place European spot and automatic qualification for the Olympics
[b]France:[/b] Barring an unlikely uprising from the non European teams, France has already secured a spot in an Olympic qualification tournament since they are the 3rd place team from the European Championship.
[b]Germany, Hungary, Croatia, Poland, Spain and Austria:[/b] These nations can also secure the 2nd or 3rd place Europe spots. But the farther you go down in the pecking order, the more difficult it will be. Germany simply needs Norway to win the title or for France or Russia to finish in the top seven. Austria, on the other hand would need for 6 or 7 of the teams that placed ahead of them at the European Championships to finish in the top 7. Possible, but not likely. (Scenario details are below)
[b]Macedonia, Ukraine and Romania: [/b] These teams have only 1 way to secure an Olympic Qualification Tournament bid. They have to finish in the top 7.
[b]Sweden:[/b] Sweden isn’t playing in the World Championships, but they still can still get a spot in one of the Olympic Qualification Tournaments as the 2nd or 3rd place European team if teams that placed ahead of them at the European Championships also secure the 1st to 7th place spots at the World Championships. (Scenario details are below)
[b]Denmark:[/b] Well, the Danes are mathematically out. But, if Austria were to qualify in this manner, there will probably be some soul searching in Copenhagen. If Denmark could have placed 10th instead of 11th at the European Championships they would have qualified instead of the Austrians.
[b]ASIA[/b]
[b]China:[/b] Already qualified as Olympic Host
[b]Kazakhstan: [/b] Already qualified for the Olympics as the Asian Champion
[b]South Korea:[/b] As the second place team at the Asian Championship they’ve already secured a spot in an Olympic Qualification Tournament. The defending Silver medalists will be looking to bounce back from their surprising failure to secure the automatic Asian spot and place in the top 4, so they can host an Olympic Qualification Tournament
[b]Japan: [/b] As the third place team at the Asian Championship they will be hoping that Asia can secure the 2nd best continent. If Asia does, Japan will be placed in an Olympic Qualification Tournament
[b]PATHF[/b]
[b]Brazil:[/b] Already qualified for the Olympics as the PATHF Champion
[b]Argentina: [/b] As the third place team at the PATHF Championship they will be hoping that Brazil can secure the 2nd best continent for the PATHF.
Dominican Republic, Paraguay: These teams have only 1 way to secure an Olympic Qualification Tournament bid. They have to finish in the top 7.
[b]Cuba: [/b]Cuba won’t be at the WC, but as the 2nd place team at the PATHF Championship they’ve already secured a spot in an Olympic Qualification Tournament.
[b]AFRICA[/b]
[b]Angola, Tunisia, Republic of the Congo:[/b] Africa’s continental championship will be played in January 2008, so the automatic Olympic bid is TBD. One of these teams will likely get that automatic bid, but for now they will need a top 7 finish
[b]OCEANIA[/b]
[b]Australia:[/b] Oceania doesn’t have an automatic bid for the Olympics. To get a place in an Olympic Qualification Tournament Australia will need to get 12th place or better.
[b]Unintended Consequences?: [/b] Because the IHF chose to use a set formula for assigning teams to the Qualification Tournaments the Bronze medal game could result in the 2 nations participating questioning the benefits of winning. Why? Well, by that point in the tournament it will likely be clear as to which teams will be participating in each tournament. And in all probability hosting Tournament 3 will be a much better proposition than hosting Tournament 2. Tournament 2 will include the 6th place World’s Team, an African team and a European team while Tournament 3 will have the 5th place World’s Team, an Asian team (South Korea if they don’t finish top 7, otherwise Japan), and probably either Cuba or Qatar. If South Korea places in the top 7, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to quickly assess that Tournament 3 would be a much easier tournament for qualification. And in order to get the better tournament you would [b][i]need to lose the Bronze Medal game[/i][/b]. Of course, things could pan out differently, but the teams will know before they take the court who their potential opponents will be. The solution: Next time around a seeded draw would be a way to avoid that situation.
[b]Detail for European 2nd or 3rd place:[/b] As there are several European teams at the World Championship, its fairly complex as to the different exact scenarios. Additionally, Norway’s threat to win the title complicates the scenarios as a title victory for them also gives Russia automatic qualification. Suffice to say here’s the details for those so inclined.
[b]If Norway wins the WC[/b]
To get the Europe 2nd place spot….
France: Needs no help
Germany: Needs France to place from 2nd to 7th
Hungary: Needs all of the following nations (France, Germany) to place from 2nd to 7th
Sweden: Needs all of the following nations (France, Germany, Hungary) to place from 2nd to 7th
To get the Europe 3rd place spot….
Germany: Needs no help
Hungary: Needs 1 of the following nations (France, Germany) to place from 2nd to 7th
Sweden: Needs 2 of the following nations (France, Germany, Hungary) to place from 2nd to 7th
Croatia: Needs all of the following nations (France, German, Hungary) to place from 2nd to 7th
Poland: Needs all of the following nations (France, German, Hungary, Croatia) to place from 2nd to 7th
Spain: Needs all of the following nations (France, German, Hungary, Croatia, Poland) to place from 2nd to 7th
Austria: Needs all of the following nations (France, German, Hungary, Croatia, Poland, Spain) to place from 2nd to 7th
[b]If Norway doesn’t win the WC[/b]
To get the Europe 2nd place spot….
Russia: Needs no help
France: Needs Russia to place from 1st to 7th
Germany: Needs all of the following nations (Russia, France) to place from 1st to 7th
Hungary: Needs all of the following nations (Russia, France, Germany) to place from 1st to 7th
Sweden: Needs all of the following nations (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary) to place from 1st to 7th
To get the Europe 3rd place spot….
France: Needs no help
Germany: Needs 1 of the following nations (Russia, France) to place from 1st to 7th
Hungary: Needs 2 of the following nations (Russia, France, Germany) to place from 1st to 7th
Sweden: Needs 3 of the following nations (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary) to place from 1st to 7th
Croatia: Needs all of the following nations (Russia, France, German, Hungary) to place from 1st to 7th
Poland: Needs all of the following nations (Russia, France, German, Hungary, Croatia) to place from 1st to 7th
Spain: Needs all of the following nations (Russia, France, German, Hungary, Croatia, Poland) to place from 1st to 7th
Austria: Needs all of the following nations (Russia, France, German, Hungary, Croatia, Poland, Spain) to place from 1st to 7th