The sports movie is as American as apple pie. American football has Brian’s Song and Remember the Titans. Baseball has Field of Dreams, Bull Durham and the Natural. Basketball has Hoosiers and Hockey has Miracle! and Slap Shot. Soccer has Goal! and Victory. And now Rugby has Invictus.

Invictus (Latin for unbeaten), opened in theaters this weekend in North America and South Africa. The film depicts South Africa’s 1995 Rugby World Cup championship and Nelson Mandela’s statesmanship in using his support of the “whiteman’s game” to help bring his country together. The film is directed by Clint Eastwood and stars Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela and Matt Damon as the South African team captain, Francois Pienaar. It’s a wonderful story line and there is already talk of it being an Oscar contender.

Aside from the movie itself, the promotional impact for the sport of Rugby in the U.S. will be massive. Commercials have been frequently promoting the movie during NFL and college American football games. Literally, millions of potential fans/players will see the movie either in theaters or DVD in the coming year. For youngsters not familiar with the sport, they will soon be asking where can I play this game. For old timers with misconceptions, it will be their first real exposure to the sport and it will squash whatever notions they had that rugby is merely an excuse for college kids to drink beer. Follow on effects will be more players and more customer demand for matches on TV. Add in Rugby 7’s (a modified version of the 15 a side game) recent inclusion to the Olympic program and you could not ask for a better publicity blitz.

Right now, one can only dream of a Team Handball movie with the kind of star power and promotion Invictus has behind it. There have been a couple of films with Handball themes. Korea’s “Forever the Moment” chronicles the 2004 Women’s Olympic team and did pretty good business in that country. The independent film “Machan” tells a fictionalized version of the phony Sri Lankan Handball team that used handball as a ploy to emigrate to Europe. These are nice films, but you really need major studio backing to have an Invictus like impact.

You also would need a compelling story and right now I’m not aware of any Handball story that could be sold to a major studio. Maybe an Iceland Gold medal in Beijing would have fit the bill, but it lacks the inner conflict that South Africa had in 1995 or the USSR-USA rivalry backdrop that USA hockey had in 1980. Maybe Bosnia & Herzegovina could go on an improbable run to an Olympic medal with a multi-ethnic team of Bosnians, Croats and Serbs playing side by side. Certainly, that would be an achievement, but still it would be tough to sell a sport even less well known than rugby.

Got an idea for Handball movie plot: Share it on our Facebook page

VIDEO: Invictus Trailer
THN (27 Aug 07): Can you teach an old dog a new trick
THN (10 Nov 08): In Search of a Handball Zee Ngwenya:
THN (9 Jul 08): Korean Handball Movie Available Online:
THN (3 Sep 08): Sri Lankan Handball Movie Debuts at Venice Film Festival

Philip Hersh, who writes for the Olympics Blog at the Los Angeles Times has a posting on live webcasts of figure skating. He first highlights a statement he made 3 years ago concerning the state of figure skating on TV.

“The forecast is so ominous that it could turn figure skating into primarily an Internet sport as a broadcast commodity, barely a decade after its over-the-air network TV ratings and income were sky high."

He then backtracks from this original statement to note that:
1) The quality of webcasts are improving and younger viewers are more inclined to watch them on their computer
2) The internet is giving more fans the opportunity to watch it live
3) The TV revenue has decreased, but the adspace on the ice rinks are still getting exposure.

As perhaps the world’s biggest proponent of online webcasts for handball, I can only say hear-hear. The IHF is making the Women’s World Championship available and the EHF even provides Champions League matches for free. If only the Liga Asobal, Handball Bundesliga and others would realize that the TV money will come if they make their product available to more folks on line. The sooner the better.

LA Times (8 Dec 09): Webcasts no longer doomsday for figure skating: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/olympics_blog/2009/12/we.html
THN (22 Sep 09): German Bundesliga blocks internet Handball broadcasts to rest of world: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.827

These recent articles in the New York Times highlights a recent soccer match fixing scandal in the lower divisions of German soccer. What’s depicted here could also describe the situation in Handball’s lower leagues in Europe or even to a certain extent the top leagues as Handball players are not nearly as well compensated.

New York Times: Soccer on Fields Ripe for Fixing: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/07/sports/soccer/07soccer.html?pagewanted=all

New York Times: Player Pulled Into Soccer Betting Maelstrom (8 Dec 09):

Perhaps you might have noticed that more clubs seem to be pulling their goalie earlier in matches. Traditionally, this risky tactic has been reserved for the very last minute of a match because the risk of an open net has been seen as too great. Lately, however, more and more clubs are using this tactic when they lose a player for two minutes. The logic apparently being that they are better off keeping an equal 6 on 6 balance while on offense. Typically, the extra court player plays backcourt for about 15 seconds and then substitutes out for the “real” goalie.

And sometimes the “real” goalie plays offense and as Constanta’s Mihai Popescu shows they can even score. Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSP9w83YJ0g

So does the possibility of an 12 meter cannonball strike by your pulled goalie justify the risk of your opposition getting an easy goal into an empty net? My intuitive reaction has been that this strategy is total nonsense. After all, if pulling your goalie was such a good idea why don’t teams do it for an entire game?

But, being that I’m an Engineer (in my day job) I decided to run some numbers to back up my intuition. In doing so I was surprised to find out that this strategy isn’t as foolhardy as I thought. In fact, depending on how likely you think different outcomes are it’s a sound strategy.

For the sake of argument let’s make the following assumptions:

Likelihood of Team A scoring when:
– Down a man (5 on 6): 15%
– Pulling a goalie (6 on 6): 30% (note: this is not the same as a regular 6 on 6 since the “6th man” often stays back a little in order to be ready for the substitution

Likelihood of different Team A readiness levels on their next defense as a result of their trying to score with a pulled goalie:
– Fully ready (Made goal): 30%
– Fully ready (no fastbreak opportunity for Team B ): 20%
– Partially ready (partial fastbreak; resulting in the goalie not being fully ready to defend): 30%
– Open goal (turnover or easily recovered missed shot results in an open net): 20%

Likelihood of Team B scoring:
– When Team A is fully ready: 60%
– When Team A is partially ready: 80%
– When there is an open net: 98%

Using these percentages it can then be calculated that the pulled goalie strategy is marginally superior. (For those so inclined the math is in the in the extended text.) With the pulled goalie strategy a team can expect to be up a goal 12% of the time; tied 33%; and down 1 goal 55%. The traditional strategy results in being up a goal 6% of the time, tied 43%, and down 1 goal 51%. Or to think of it in terms of expected value, pulling a goalie results in a -.436 deficit vs. -.45 for the traditional strategy. A razor thin margin for sure, but still a slight nod to the pulling the goalie strategy.

Now we can argue if the percentages chosen are “representative”. Truth be told, they will vary greatly depending on the teams playing. Accordingly, so should the decision on what strategy should be taken. In general, if your defense is not very good under normal circumstances, the more sense it makes to pull your goalie. In other words, if they are going to score against you anyway, you might as well improve your chances to score against them. Conversely, if Thierry Omeyer is in the goal it would be foolish not to keep him in the goal where even an uncontested fast break is no sure thing. This is why I question former Norway National Team coach, Marit Breivik’s use of this tactic. With one of the best teams in the world and a more than competent goalie the odds suggests that this might have been a suspect strategy.

Another question worth contemplating is whether certain clubs might even want to consider playing 7 on 6 full time. And indeed some of the weaker Champions League clubs have done exactly this against the elite clubs for significant stretches of a match. Such a move is very disruptive, but it usually doesn’t take too long for the top clubs to adjust and punish the tactic. Reportedly, the Argentine women have been using this tactic at the World Championships in China, but based on results it hasn’t been too successful.

For more on the math involved see the extended text

For a traditional defense where the goalie stay put it’s relatively simple
Percent Team A scores (5 on 6) – Percent Team B scores (when Team A is fully ready on defense) or simply .15 -.60 = -.45

Or to think of it another way if this situation happens 100 times the resultant outcomes would be
9% Team A: 1; Team B:1
6% Team A: 1; Team B:0
51% Team A:0; Team B:1
34% Team A:0 Team B:0

The calculation for pulling the goalie is a little more complex due to the varying states of defensive readiness and the varying times they face that particular state of readiness:

Percent Team A scores (6 on 6) –
[(% Team B scores against fully ready Team A x % time Team A scores) +
(% Team B scores against fully ready Team A x % time Team B has no fastbreak opportunity) +
(% Team B scores against partially ready Team A x % time Team A is only partially ready) +
(% Team B scores against empty net x % time there is a an empty net)]

.30 – [(.60 x .3) + (.60 x .2) + (.80 x .3) + (.98 x .2)] = -.436

18% Team A: 1; Team B:1
12% Team A: 1; Team B:0
55% Team A:0; Team B:1
15% Team A:0 Team B:0

Promoting Team Handball in nations where the sport struggles for any media attention can be a challenge. In fact, in these nations any article in a mainstream news outlet about the sport is usually a cause of minor celebration. As a result of not being covered, national and regional federations, as well as clubs, usually do a fair amount of self promotion. I’ve written a few times about how important this is https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.540, and about how sometimes the self reporting has been a little bit misleading https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.787.

Recently, the Alberta Women’s team travelled to Chicago to participate in the Windy City tournament. As part of their self-reporting the team posted 5 video blogs on Youtube http://www.teamhandball.ab.ca/league.php?scriptName=LEAGUEINFO&leagueID=12092&leagueInfoID=47877 (Scroll to the bottom). For the uninitiated, a video blog can perhaps best be described as informal video containing information similar to what you might read in a written blog post. In Alberta’s case the video blogs were part travelogue, part “shout out” to the folks back home, and part recaps of the club’s matches. If I were in charge the content provided would have been more related to the matches, but I highly doubt that I was part of the targeted demographic.

So while I might have changed what was recorded, I am intrigued by the possibilities it presents for clubs and federations. As some theoretical examples of what could have been, consider the USA Women’s trip to Poland, the Canadian Men’s Team trip to the Dominican Republic or Australia’s upcoming participation in the World Championships. 5 minutes of recording, consisting of game footage, post game interviews, and sure, why not a little bit of travelogue would be greatly appreciated by the fans back home. And, if we’re thinking about targeted demographics these types of videos are bound to enhance recruiting as perspective players (ages 12-20) get a better glimpse of just what an opportunity these trips are.

Now some of you might say that players travelling on national team trips to important competitions don’t have time to be recording and editing video. Instead they should be resting or preparing for the next match. To which, I say, “Pullease, give me a break!” Maybe things have changed since I took a couple of overseas trips, but I still fondly remember never having more free time to read and play cards in my entire life. Amongst 12-15 players and support staff the workload to create video and web posts would not be overwhelming. More likely, there’s bound to be 1 or 2 tech savvy folks that probably would have to be pulled away from doing it. I contacted the primary creator of the Alberta postings, Sara Cyrankiewicz, and she indicated that she spent about 30 minutes or so editing each clip. Factor in that she’s done it a few times and we’re probably talking about 2-3 hours of “work” for a team before they get better at it through practice.

So the question for Federations out there shouldn’t be, “Can we do it?” Instead, the question should be, “Why aren’t we?”

THN (Jul 2008): Australian Junior Women In Macedonia: Getting Beat on the Court, but Reporting on it in Style: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.540
THN (Jul 2009): Real news from official Handball websites?: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.787
Alberta Sr Women page with link to Youtube videos: http://www.teamhandball.ab.ca/league.php?scriptName=LEAGUEINFO&leagueID=12092&leagueInfoID=47877

The Pan American Team Handball Federation’s (PATHF) Junior Women’s Division 1 Championship are currently taking place in San Jose, Costa Rica. Through 2 match days, Mexico and the Dominican Republic look to be the class of this (Under 20) competition, while relative newcomers Colombia, Costa Rica and Guatemala appear to be at least one step down in class. Barring a major change in performance Mexico and the Dominican Republic should advance to the PATHF Junior Championship next year where they will take on Brazil, Argentina, Greenland, Uruguay, Puerto Rico and Chile. The top 3 teams from that tournament will then advance to the Junior World Championships next summer in South Korea.

Meanwhile, a U.S. Women’s team consisting of players ranging in ages from 14-25 traveled to Poland where they took on the Polish Women’s National Team and participated in an under 21 tournament against Norway, the Czech Republic and Poland. Predictably, for a very inexperienced team taking on quality competition, the scores ranged from ugly (33-12 against the Poland Jrs) to downright brutal (59-11 to Norway). While, some might argue that those scores indicate that the trip was a waste of time, I don’t fall into that camp. As I wrote back in 2006 https://teamhandballnews.com/news142.html, even the worst blowout is a valuable learning experience for the players of the losing team and nations also get a very clear benchmark of where they stand and how far they need to go.

That being said, however, when the gap becomes too great there are diminishing returns for the losing side. Ideally, a trip will include a match or two against top sides, as well as matches against comparative foes. This is why I’m a big fan of the current World Championships format which gives sides like Australia a “lesson” during group play, but then gives them an opportunity to compete on a more equal footing in the President’s Cup.

Arguably, the ongoing PATHF tournament in Costa Rica would have been just such a tournament for the U.S. In all likelihood, the U.S. would have been smoked by Mexico and the Dominican Republic, but they would have been competitive against the other 3 sides. These tournaments would also have given the U.S. players a taste of what competition is like in Latin America. On down the line as the U.S. improves one can also hope that the U.S. will qualify for World Junior and Youth championships where players get great exposure to scouts for professional clubs.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s pretty well documented that I’m not a big fan of PATHF. But, I still have the same questions that I raised last month when the U.S. didn’t participate in the Men’s senior Div 1 Championships. Except in this case an even stronger argument could be made that the ongoing “youth movement” would have been served pretty well by this tournament.

USA Team Handball is expected to release some of its planning documentation in the near future. Here’s hoping it clearly explains what the grand strategy is in terms of which teams will play where and why?

Canadian side note: According to the Canadian Federation Facebook page, Canada didn’t even get an invite to this tournament. It should also be noted, though, that they probably wouldn’t have participated anyway due to their current focus on the Sr. Programs.

USA Team Handball: Dipping Toes in International Waters: http://usateamhandball.org/news/2009/11/22/dipping-toes-in-international-waters/29259
THN (Sep 2006): Is it Better to Get Blown Out or to Just Stay Home?: https://teamhandballnews.com/news142.html
THN (Oct 2008): Analyzing the US decision to not participate in PATHF: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.854
PATHF Div 1 Juniors Results: http://www.panamhandball.org/index.php?option=com_joomleague&func=showResultsRank&p=8&Itemid=26
Canadian Federation Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Canadian-Team-Handball-Federation/165918018883