As I see it, today’s Olympic draw serves two main purposes: it allows the participating teams to start preparing in a more focused way on their initial opponents; and it provides handball fans around the world with a more firm basis to begin speculations about the outcome. But I do not think it really affects in a major way the race for the medals. Yes, it sets up some intriguing match-ups in the preliminary groups, but the system that allows no less than four teams in each group to go to the quarter-finals really does not seem to create an unfair or unreasonable burden for any top contender.

Moreover, especially on the women’s side, the recent qualifying event suggests that the field is perhaps more even than ever. I do not see any clear favorites for the medals. And almost any team could advance to the medal round without being seen as a tremendous surprise. Well, I guess I must exclude the home team! Any win for them would be a surprise, despite their famous fighting spirit. Perhaps one should not base too much on the results of the qualifying groups, but the Russian second half against Denmark was impressive, and the same goes for the Montenegro victory in France. Much of the speculation will most likely involve Norway’s chances for a repeat. But I will be more excited about the possibility of a Brazilian surprise or a return to the top level by the Korean team.

On the men’s side, it may seem easier to pick favorites: it would be difficult to ignore any of the medal winners in the 2011 World Championship: France, Denmark and Spain. It may be too early for the Serbs to be a serious medal contender this time; but who knows, perhaps their success in EURO 2012 inspired them enough. Or what about a ‘last gasp’ from the current Croatian generation? Most likely Tunisia and Iceland will act as ‘spoilers’ in some games, but I do not see them as medal winners. And of course I will upset my Swedish friends if I say the same thing about their team…

The speculation about the draw itself had largely focused on what would be the effect of the British privilege to be in the fourth row and, above all, their right to choose groups after the teams from all the other rows had been placed. It had been feared that this might cause a major imbalance. On the women’s side, undoubtedly the teams who will now play Great Britain instead of France will tend to be satisfied. But it is on the men’s side where the effect may be more noticeable. As can be seen below, the teams in Group A who get Great Britain instead of Serbia, will also get an injury-ridden Argentina instead of Denmark, because Great Britain did not hesitate to choose the group with Argentina, even though it will set up an intriguing ‘Falklands/Malvinas’ battle as some have labeled it. And it will revive the anger in Denmark about their unfair treatment as World Championship silver medalist.

Finally, looking at the geographic distribution of the European teams on the men’s and women’s side combined, it is first interesting to see the overall ‘perimeter’ concentration of the participants: the Nordic countries, France/Spain, the Balkans, and Hungary/Russia. What happened to Central Europe (well, the Hungarians may quarrel) and, in particular, where is Germany!? And to take it a step further, it is really amazing that on both the men’s and the women’s side, the ‘Eastern’ teams got clustered in the same groups, while among the women there is a distinctly Scandinavian/Latin combo. Now the groups:

Women A: Montenegro, Russia, Croatia, Great Britain, Brazil, Angola
Women B: Norway, Spain, Denmark, France, Sweden, Korea

Men A: France, Sweden, Iceland, Great Britain, Argentina, Tunisia
Men B: Spain, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, Denmark, Korea

I was explaining the scenario already last night: Spain could today afford to lose by two goals against Croatia and still win the group; they could lose by six and still qualify for London. As we know, from so many similar situations in handball, football and other sports, when there exists such a ‘convenient’ result that rescues BOTH team, then often that is the result we will get. So, the final result was 23-22 in favor of Croatia. Please note that I am NOT accusing anyone of any intentional wrongdoing. But the IHF game schedule did not provide for a logical and fair situation.

 

Netherlands beat Croatia on the first day, and Spain beat Netherlands on the second day. In both these games, both teams desperately needed to do their best. But in the final part of the triangle, today’s Spain-Croatia, the Croatians had the huge advantage of playing against a team that did NOT need to win. If one knows that two teams out of four qualify, and if one assumes that the ranking is often correct, then it would be logical to assume that typically the 2 vs. 3 game will decide, and then it would seem logical, natural to play that game on the LAST day, so that the teams get the same conditions. But IHF keeps sticking to the ‘autopilot’ approach of playing 3–4 and 1-2 on the last day….

The Croatians will undoubtedly prefer the easier explanation: in the ‘triangle’ they had the second-best goal difference, so that is why they now have their tickets for London. But for a neutral observer it leaves a bad taste. (And one should also note that the IHF format makes the other two groups totally anticlimactic today, as the teams ranked 1 and 2 are already qualified). The Dutch, with their young, exciting team will now need to focus on getting their revenge in December when they play EURO 2012 in front of their home crowd. And many of their talents will have an even earlier opportunity in July, during the U-20 World Championship. They were runners-up in the EHF U-19 last year, so they are clearly among the favorites. Good luck!

All the participants in London are now known, and the draw for the groups, for both women and men, will take place on Wednesday May 30th. The seeding rows for the women’s competition are now as follows: 1. Norway and today’s group winner France/Montenegro; 2. Spain and the group winner Denmark/Russia; 3. Croatia and loser Denmark/Russia ; 4. the loser France/Montenegro and Great Britain; 5. Sweden and Brazil; 6. Korea and Angola. Each one of the bottom four teams undoubtedly hopes that Great Britain will choose the group that THEY are placed in, as this might make the path to the quarter-finals slightly easier.

Full summary of Olympic Qualification competition:  https://teamhandballnews.com/2012-olympic-qual-women/ (Note:  Always available in our links section on the right.)

Just like in the men’s qualifying event last month, there is not much left to decide on the final day. Two of the three groups are already settled, with France, Montenegro, Denmark and Russia having secured their places. To some extent, this is due to the unfortunate game sequence; with two teams out of four qualifying from each group, it does not make sense to have the games 1 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 4 on the final day. Instead, it would make sense to have 2 vs. 3 to maintain more suspense.

This would have meant that Croatia and the Netherlands would have a directly deciding game tomorrow. Instead they must depend on the efforts of a Spanish team that can afford to lose against Croatia. If they lose by one or two goals, they will still win the group, and the Dutch are out. If Spain win by three to six goals, they still qualify as runner-up, and with Croatia as group winner. In a normal game tomorrow, Spain should win on the basis of the level they and Croatia has shown until now, but who knows what might happen when winning is not strictly necessary.

In the other groups, France and Denmark did their job against Japan and the Dominican Republic, respectively. Montenegro had an easier time than expected, but it was tough for Romania to keep up in the absence of Neagu and after an early injury for Vizitiu. The final score was 34-23. Russia had the advantage of having observed Tunisia on the first day, so they were not about to get caught by surprise. But at an early stage they were unable to pull away, managing only a 9-7 lead. However, then the Russian machine had the steam up, and the result changed to 17-7 and 27-10, before they relaxed a bit and allowed a final score of 33-20.

Well, in my focus yesterday on Tunisia and Japan, and on the hope for surprises, I gave short shrift to the Dutch women. They have proud traditions, through a strong and exciting team roughly in the period 1995-2005. Their best result was a fifth place in the 2005 World Championships. But if this new generation of Dutch players were to gain a place in London, as now seems realistic, then it would be the first appearance in the Olympics for Dutch handball. Today they played an even game against Croatia for 40 minutes and then seized control. They had a three-goal lead but the final margin was 29-28. A win against Argentina on Sunday should be enough, unless the Croatian team surprises against Spain.

France made the task difficult for themselves against Romania by playing in a less than concentrated way. They were saved by their goalkeeper and by the fact that the Romanians were making even more mistakes at times. So it may come down to a thriller tomorrow between Romania and Montenegro, although the Montenegrins were almost caught by surprise in the opening game against Japan. The Japanese women showed no respect and even had the lead for a brief moment in the second half. But in the end Montenegro managed to pull away and win 30-24.

Russia had no problems with an inexperienced team from the Dominican Republic, but they may have to show more determination against the surprisingly strong Tunisians. I had commented about their progress, but nobody, especially not the Danish team and their supporters had expected such a tough fight. And the special twist was that the star for the Tunisian team was Mouna Chebbah, who plays for the Danish club Viborg, although normally in a more modest role. Tunisia had 13-12 at half-time and were only two goals behind close to the end, before the final result was set at 28-24 in favor of Denmark.

Before it all started, many of us surely found the qualifying groups rather predictable: Croatia and Iceland would have an easy time, Sweden and Hungary would be favorites but would have more of a struggle, and Spain should not realistically fail at home. And that is what we also could confirm last night. So today it all came down to ‘Serbia or Poland’. But this anticlimax, with only one place to be decided today, could have been avoided if the IHF had decided that, if two teams out of four will advance from each group, then it makes sense to have the teams seeded no. 2 and no. 3 play each other on the last day.

This would also have felt more fair and straight-forward. Now Serbia and Poland had to depend not just on their own performance but also on the attitude of two teams that already knew that they were in or out. This could easily lead to an issue of motivation that might have too much influence on the outcome. Poland had only defeated Algeria by one goal in a nervous game on the opening day. Today the Serbians knew that they could force Poland to gain at least a tie against Spain if they could beat Algeria with a margin of at least four goals. And they built a five-goal lead during the first 18 minutes, a lead which they then gradually increased in last part of the game. Vujin and especially goalkeeper Stanic were the key players today, in this comfortable 26-18 victory.

So Poland desperately needed to avoid a loss, while Spain could play in a more relaxed manner. And it very soon became clear that the pressure that goes with desperation was a handicap. But one should also emphasize that the Spanish team simply was too good today. From goalkeeper veteran Hombrados (who turned 40 during the weekend) to the strong defense and the very agile and powerful attack, the Spanish team looked superior throughout the game. An impressive start led to 4-0 and eventually 18-9 by half-time. Against a clearly demoralized Polish team, this was increased to a 14-goal margin close to the end, before the final score was settled at 33-22. Perhaps there is some sense of fairness in seeing Serbia qualify at Poland’s expense, because Serbia was the silver medalist in EURO 2012, while Poland was the last team to ‘sneak in’ and gain a place in a qualifying group, but I doubt that the Polish team will view it this way…

In other games today, Brazil saved the image of the non-Europeans by giving a very motivated performance and defeating FYRO Macedonia 28-27. The aggressive Brazilian defense caused the opponents to work hard for each goal instead of scoring easily from a distance. The teams took turns scoring in spurts of three to four goals but Brazil was mostly ahead throughout the game and deserved the victory. — Sweden clearly wanted to win in front of the home crowd, and a win would also yield what could be seen as a slight edge in the draw for the groups in the Olympics. The game was even, with Hungary enjoying a narrow 12-11 half-time lead, even though the Hungarians rested some key players. But Sweden showed will-power and turned a 20-21 deficit into a 26-23 victory during the final ten minutes.

Perhaps the Chileans had had some hope of finally confirming their nice impression from the 2011 World Championships. But although Emil Feuchtmann showed his strength with nine goals, the more balanced attack of Japan, combined with a tenacious defense, made the difference. Japan jumped to a 6-1 lead after 7 minutes, and thereafter they maintained a lead of at least four-five goals en route to a 33-26 triumph. — Iceland managed to stay very even with Croatia during the first half, which ended with 18-15 for Croatia. But during the second half there was really no doubt about the outcome. Croatia maintained a lead of about five-six goals throughout, although at the very end Iceland reduced to 31-28.

The implications for the seeding of the two groups in London are that the 12 teams will be placed as follows: level 1 – France and Spain; level 2 – Sweden and Croatia; level 3 – Iceland and Hungary; level 4 – Serbia and Great Britain; level 5 – Denmark and Argentina; level 6 – Korea and Tunisia. After the teams from all the other five levels have been drawn into two groups, Great Britain will be allowed to choose one of the groups. All the speculation is that Great Britain, unless they somehow want to avoid a confrontation flavored by ‘Falklands/Malvinas’, will choose the group that includes Argentina at level 5. This is in part because for Great Britain the chance to reach the quarterfinals clearly depends on the slim hope of beating the lower-ranked teams in their group.

So this is also what underscores the unfair treatment of World Championship silver medalists Denmark (as I have discussed in an earlier article), as they are bound to face four strong European teams in their group. And unless Great Britain voluntarily goes for a stronger opponent, it will also create suspense and inequities for the teams in level 1-3 and 6; from each level, one team would face Serbia + Denmark while one team will face Great Britain + Argentina!

Finally, after this criticism, credit should at least be given to the IHF for very efficient results service throughout the three game days.

Please note change from initial version: it appears that the IHF has changed the seeding for London to a more logical approach in one particular respect, compared with the version which they briefly published in February on the IHF web page. It has now been confirmed that Iceland (as a higher ranked team) is correctly at level 3, while Serbia is at level 4. By contrast, the mistreatment of Denmark remains. (I had initially reflected the previous IHF version which would have improperly put Serbia at level 3 and Iceland at level 4).

The first day of games in the three groups did not offer any real surprises. Perhaps some will think that Algeria and Brazil offered more resistance than expected, but the opponents were most likely prepared for a battle. Here are some observations, based on web reports and input from people who were present:

Sweden did manage to win against Brazil with 25-20, but it was not an impressive victory. The attack was characterized by mistakes and the defense leaked. So the goalkeepers Palicka and Sjostrand deserve a lot of credit. The result was 16-16 at one point in the second half, but then came the decisive Swedish move to 20-16. Sweden had success with fast-breaks but they were a disastrous 1 for 5 from the 7-meter line. Brazil were hampered by very erratic shooting from distance. The conclusion is that Sweden must play much better to have a comfortable time against FYRO Macedonia tomorrow.

This was also confirmed in the Hungary-FYROM matchup, where the Hungarians fell behind from the beginning and did not manage to assert themselves until some strong shooting from oldtimer Carlos Perez gave them a chance to pull ahead late in the first half. From there on they managed to maintain a slim lead. The final result was 28-26 for Hungary, after some drama near the end, when FYROM had a chance to tie the game. Hungary got a large number of 2-minute suspensions, but despite good efforts by playmaker Mojsovski, FYROM did not manage to take advantage. This game may well turn out to have been the critical one in the group.

Poland seemed to get a solid start against Algeria, but soon they found themselves behind and the half-time score favored the Algerians, 16-13. Szmal had started the game without much success, so a switch to Wichary may have been decisive. And then, during a ten-minute period early in the second half, the experienced Polish team got the game under control with a partial score of 9-2. From there on they were never really threatened, and with the Jurecki brothers showing the way, they built the lead to 28-22, before Algeria managed to score the last five goals of the game for a 28-27 final result. Poland’s strength was in efficient scoring from the 6-meter line and the wings, while the Algerians undermined their cause through some wild shooting.

Spain is in what seems to be the toughest group, but at least they have home court advantage in Alicante. The Spanish team had also made rather confident statements ahead of time, suggesting that they are simply too good a team to miss out on the Olympics. But the game against Serbia turned out to be just as difficult as the strong performance of Serbia in EURO 2012 would suggest. The half-time lead for Spain was 11-10, after a nervous start from the home team and a gradual comeback. In the second half it was very close until a few minutes from the end, and Serbia had the lead a couple of times. Ilic was the outstanding scorer for Serbia, although some of the goals came from the 7-meter line. The Spanish scoring was more evenly spread, but the tradition held up, with many successful fast-breaks and a lot of shots attempted from the wings.

If from the game Croatia-Japan one first noticed the half-time result, 16-14, one may have begun to wonder. But a closer examination shows that the Croatians had a 12-6 lead before they relaxed. And in the second half there was never any doubt. The home team pulled away to 28-17 and kept up their concentration to the end. The final result was 36-22. It was telling that 47 of 51 shots from the Croatians were on target, with Cupic and Horvat as the top scorers. Alilovic and Losert had an easier time as no less than 18 of 53 Japanese shots were blocked or went wide. It just is not enough to score eight goals from distance in international competition.

It had been generally assumed that Chile is the weakest one of the teams participating in the qualifying. Against this background, a final victory for Iceland with 25-17, after 12-7 at half-time does not seem so overwhelming. But Iceland in fact had the lead by 20-9 and 24-12, so the win really came more easily than the final result suggests. One factor was that Chile had far too many turnovers, and they also failed to take advantage of a large number of Icelandic 2-minute suspensions. Sigurdsson dominated the scoring for Iceland with ten goals, many of them on fast-breaks. Chile also allowed too many penetrations on the 6-meter line. None of the Chileans managed to score more than two goals.

It would not be a complete surprise if all the groups are decided on the second day, causing the games on Sunday to be meaningless. But let us hope that we get at least one unexpected result tomorrow! At least it is difficult to see Poland as clear favorite against Serbia, and perhaps the Swedish group will also see an upset…