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Could LeBron James Really Become the Best Handball Player in Just 6 Months? Do I really have to explain how crazy that notion is? (Part 1)

The Serbian basketball (with just 1 NBA player) lost narrowly to Team USA in Group play 94-91.  What’s the difference athleticism wise between the Serbian Hoops team and the Croatian and Slovenian Handball teams?  The Serbian hoopsters are a little taller and a little slower, but for all practical purposes, it’s a wash.  And, to think that USA NBAers could learn how to play handball in a few months and take Gold? Against similar athletes who’ve spent their whole lives playing handball?  That LeBron could be the best player in the world in 6 months?   Don’t get me started… Alright, you’ve got me started and I can’t stop.   For handball fans everywhere it’s time to take down these totally ridiculous notions.

The Serbian basketball (with just 1 NBA player) lost narrowly yesterday to Team USA in Group play 94-91. What’s the difference athleticism wise between the Serbian Hoops team and the Croatian and Slovenian Handball teams? The Serbian hoopsters are a little taller and a little slower, so for all practical purposes, it’s a wash. And, to think that USA NBAers could learn how to play handball in a few months and take Olympic Gold? Against athletes who’ve spent their whole lives playing handball? That LeBron could be the best player in the world in 6 months?
Don’t get me started… Alright, you’ve got me started and I can’t stop.
For handball fans everywhere it’s time to take down these totally ridiculous notions.

 

In Adam Kilgore’s recent Washington Post article on handball, “U.S. athletes run fast, jump high, throw hard — why are we so bad at handball?“,  USA Men’s Coach, Javier Garcia Cuesta, was asked how long he thought it would take for LeBron James to become the best player in the world.  Garcia Cuesta replied

“Maybe six months. This is just a hypothetical. He has everything. When you see him playing, your mouth drops.”

I’m thinking/hoping that Garcia Cuesta was just being provocative, but this quote has unfortunately given top cover to every back of the napkin postulation that all the U.S. has to do to be good at handball is convert a few basketball stars and maybe a few other stars from other sports, give them a few months of training and we’ll win the gold medal.

Reverse Angle Perspective #1 (Karabatic to the NBA)

So, let’s take a look at this backwards.  Could we take the world’s best handball player, give him 6 months of basketball training and make that player the best basketball player in the world?

For my money, the best handball player in the world is Nikola Karabatic.  While I think he is a heck of an athlete I think 6 months of solid basketball training would only make him a lower tier NCAA player at best.  There’s a lot of handball that translates well to basketball, but there’s specific skills such as dribbling and shooting that take thousands and thousands of hours of practice to master.  And, really there’s no way to predict whether any one individual is going to excel at the finesse task of shooting.

In short, this is a totally ludicrous notion which hopefully gives you a bit of perspective as to why handball fans are annoyed with the reverse postulate.  Because if you think about it, it means you believe the following:

  1. That the unique handball skills required to be a world class handball player are either relatively simple to learn or perhaps so similar to basketball that there’s not much to learn.
  2. That professional handball players are marginally gifted athletes, a couple of notches below the NBA in terms of athletic skill.

Let’s take a look at each of these beliefs in a bit more detail.

Reverse Angle Perspective #2 (LeBron, the life long handballer tasked with learning basketball

For additional perspective, let’s ask the question of whether a handball player could become the world’s best basketball player again.  But, this time let’s imagine that LeBron didn’t grow up in Akron, but instead grew up in the banlieue on the outskirts of Paris and in this alternate universe he became the world’s best handball player, the old fashioned way: Years of practice and experience in game situations.  (Tsk, tsk, poor Nikola, 2nd fiddle to the world’s greatest year after year…)

Anyway, could this alternate universe handballer LeBron, also become the world’s greatest hoops player? In 6 months? At the age of 31? Anybody want to make that case?  Buehler? Buehler? I didn’t think so.  Because it’s pretty darn ludicrous.  For sure, we know he’s got the raw skills to be the greatest, but anybody who’s played even a little bit of basketball knows there’s simply no way that can be accomplished in 6 months.  Why, it would take at least 2 years for him to be NBA ready and even then he would simply be a stalwart defender, a Dennis Rodman like force with limited offensive skills.

Handball: A simple game to learn, but a hard game to learn really well

So, what makes folks who’ve never played handball, have only watched it for a few days think that the reverse could be done.  Well, they must think the game of handball is pretty simple. And, it is a simple game, but deceptively so.  Having played thousands and thousands of hours of both sports I will tell you first hand that handball is an easier game to learn.  Basketball with its dribbling and shooting components is significantly harder to learn and requires more finesse.  That being said, it’s one thing to get halfway decent at handball, but another thing entirely to learn the skills necessary to become world class.

For sure, LeBron would almost immediately grasp the fast break aspects of the game.  They are remarkably similar to basketball and I can envision him flying through the defensive area and burying shots past the goalie.  He’s also got great court sense in the open floor and I think he would be pretty good at delivering passes on the break.  He would also figure out how to play defense pretty quickly as it is similar to basketball except that you can grab players in front of you and it’s more physical.  (Yes, newbies, when hoops players play their first handball game they are always taken aback the first time they get hit hard at 9 meters.  And, they are sore the next day.)

Where LeBron would struggle, though, is the same place everyone new to the game struggles: playing in a set offense.  The world’s best backcourts run, jump and shoot from 9 meters with accuracy all at the same time they are aware of their surroundings for that smart drop off pass to the wing or circle.  They make it look easy, but it ain’t.  The timing, footwork and decision making required to do so against quality defenders effectively and consistently takes years of practice and game time experience.  Try as I might, I never could do so and that’s one of the reasons I played the far simpler position of circle runner.  And, that’s just at a club level.

Of course, I’m no LeBron James, but trust me wouldn’t learn how to become an effective offensive threat overnight especially against a professional defense.  Christ, the U.S. has only had a handful of backcourts that were respectable from 9 meters and that was only after years of training.  They too weren’t LeBron James, but they were still solid athletes with D1 talent.  Sure LeBron’s learning curve would be better, but not that much better.

To sum up I think LeBron could play handball professionally as a defender immediately, but he would struggle offensively.  Teams could play him at circle runner, but even at that simpler position it would take him a year to get comfortable offensively.  Finally, at age 31 I’ve got my doubts as to whether he could really learn how to play backcourt effectively at the highest level. As his handball skills improved his athletic skills would also steadily decline.  And, as he learned the ins and outs offensive attacks with limited technical skill would be meant routinely by stiff defense.  LeBron’s 30 something body would be real sore.

The NBA:  The World’s Greatest Athletes, but not that much ridiculously greater

I suppose it depends on your criteria, but I would argue that the NBA has the world’s greatest athletes.  Probably, being an American and loving the sport of basketball since childhood has something to do with that, but I think a pretty solid case can be made that this is true.  Take the 100 best players in the NBA and the 100 best handball players in the world and handball would come out short in terms of raw athleticism.

Some then argue that this superior athleticism would carry the day.  They look at the handball national teams playing at the Olympics and think, “Those Croatian guys look like the Weber State (or insert your favorite marginal D1 school) basketball team.  LeBron would jump over them and run circles around them.

To which I say, are you conveniently forgetting some not too recent history?  Remember the 2004 Olympics and the U.S. Bronze Medal in basketball?  The U.S. squad lost to Puerto Rico, Lithuania and Argentina.  How did our superior athleticism work out in those matches? In a sport where we are also really, really skilled?  Suffice to say I would say that the athleticism of many of the national basketball teams in the Olympic tournament is very comparable to the athleticism of the national basketball teams.

Take for example, Team Australia which lost to Team USA 98-88.  Is there any doubt that the USA is more athletic, but that the Australians weren’t in awe?  Or that the Australian team might even be a little less athletic than some of the handball teams in Rio?  For sure, I don’t think France would be intimidated by Matt Dellavedova at Center Back.  Andrew Bogut would be too slow to do much of anything on a handball court.

So in a sport where we’ve always been the best, for sure athletically, and probably technically too, we may dominate, but not by a crazy amount.  To think that a technically weak LeBron would run roughshod over handball opposition because he’s a man among boys has no grasp in reality.  The athleticism gap is there, but it’s not that great.

Chill out dude:  It’s just a fun bar stool “What if” question. It’s never going to happen anyway.

Well, I would chill out.  I really would.  Except for the fact that the logic flows like this:  Well, we can’t get LeBron, but we can still get some pretty good athletes a notch or two below.  And, it will take longer than 6 months, but it won’t take that much longer.

And, then my friend, you will have the history of the U.S. national teams for the last 44 years or so.  Marginal respectability in the 70s and 80s when the Euros weren’t fully professionalized yet.  No respectability as the sport has become professionalized and we’ve gotten further and further behind nations like Brazil which have developed grass roots programs.  The USA is not going to win any medals with a “LeBron lite” strategy of taking pretty good athletes in their mid 20s and training them for several years.  And my very real fear is that despite overwhelming evidence that this strategy hasn’t worked, it’s where USA Team Handball is headed yet again.

In part 2, I’ll highlight some practical problems with first convincing athletes like LeBron to switch to handball and then I’ll address the complications with getting them up to speed on the finer points of the game.  In the meantime, if you’re interested you can read some of my earlier commentary on handball in the USA: Link

Podcast (Episode 4): New Rules Follow Up

Christer Ahl and John Ryan discuss how the new handball rules have impacted play so far at the 2016 Olympics.

Note:  The Team Handball News Podcast is now available on iTunes or as an RSS Feed

iTunes: Link

RSS Feed: Link

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Throw Back Thursday: Memo to the Main Stream Media: Give us your naive solutions if you must, but also keep promoting the sport after the Olympics

Throw Back Thursday. What's old is new again: Main Stream Media Reports on handball and quickly figures out how to make the U.S. better.

Throw Back Thursday. What’s old is new again: Main Stream Media Reports on handball and quickly figures out how to make the U.S. more competitive in 2008, 2012, 2016….

Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post has written a nice story/commentary on Team Handball

Aug 2012 (Washington Post): U.S. athletes run fast, jump high, throw hard — why are we so bad at handball?: Link

So, far it’s the main stream media story about handball that has gotten the most traction.  For sure, it makes a number of assumptions and provides some back of the napkin analysis that drives the few handball fanatic in this country a little batty, but hey it’s great publicity for our sport.

It definitely has some great quotes including a mind-boggling one from U.S. Men’s coach, Javier Garcia Cuesta, assessing that LeBron James could become the best handball player in the world in just 6 months.  I’m guessing (really hoping) that coach Garcia was just being provocative, because he surely knows better or he has completely forgotten how long it took him to turn some pretty decent athletes  back in the 80s into just competitive player.  And that was when handball was far less professional.

Kilgore’s article is not the first article to propose solutions.  Back in 2008 Sean Gregory of Time Magazine provided some analysis in.
Aug 2008 (Time Magazine): Hey, America, What about Handball: Link

Annoyed, I provided a detailed critique:
Aug 2008 (Team Handball News): Thanks for promoting team handball, but save us your naïve solutions: Link

Prior to the 2012 Olympics I wrote this commentary as a plea to the articles that were sure to follow
July 2012:  Memo to the Main Stream Media: Please do your research prior to posting your Team Handball stories:  Link

It didn’t do a whole lot to stop the flood of articles. Bill Simmons of Grantland and now the host of HBO’s Any Given Wednesday had a great article, but again with naïve solutions.
Aug 2012 (Grantland) London Chronicles Part 2:  Handball, Handball, Handball: Link

To date, the only mainstream writer to get his handball facts straight for the most part has been Stefan Fatsis.
May 2009 (NY Times): Handball has it all, but an American interest: Link

I would assess this simply from his willingness to maintain interest with the sport beyond a 4 year cicada like presence.  You watch, you learn, you appreciate and in the case of Fatsis you find every little excuse you can to promote this woefully under reported sport.

Sorry, if I come off a little petulant.  In the end, I can’t complain too loudly. Any promotion is really good promotion when it comes to Team Handball.  Every time someone sees the sport it picks up a new fan.  At some point there will indeed be a tipping point by which the sport gets the following it should have in this country.  And, once that happens it will only be a matter of time before we’re cheering on Team USA in an Olympics.  So, if you must intrepid main stream reporters give us your wisdom, but at the same time please keep promoting the sport beyond 20 August 2016

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Podcast (Episode 3): Olympic Handball: Review and Predictions Halfway through Group Play

Crowd favorite, goalie Teresa Almeida, and her Angolan teammates surprised with victories over Romania and Montenegro before coming back to earth against defending champs, Norway

Crowd favorite, goalie Teresa Almeida, and her Angolan teammates surprised with victories over Romania and Montenegro before coming back to earth against defending champs, Norway

In this podcast episode John Ryan and Christer Ahl review group play at the halfway point. Surprises, disappointments and predictions for the quarterfinals.

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Qatar’s Rafael Capote: What a Long Strange Trip it’s Been

In 2007 Cuban Handball Player Rafael Capote defected in Rio at the PANAM Games. Nine years later he’s back in Rio, this time playing for Qatar. Can his journey to become an Olympian actually make you cheer a bit for the mercenary team in maroon and white jerseys?

In 2007 Cuban Handball Player Rafael Capote defected in Rio at the PANAM Games. Nine years later he’s back in Rio, this time playing for Qatar. Can his journey to become an Olympian actually make you cheer a bit for the mercenary team in maroon and white jerseys?

Well, in the midst of reports chronicling the mercenary nature of Qatar’s national team there’s surely been a couple of questions folks have been wondering.  How does a Cuban become a world class handball player? And, how does a Cuban end up playing for Qatar?

Well, the answer to the first question is that he’s a product of Cuba’s development system.  Perhaps the last remaining example of a communist style sports program, even if it’s been running on life support for the last decade or so.  Handball is not a huge sport in Cuba, but nevertheless it’s gotten some level of government support for years.  Players with potential are identified and they train together as a national team.  I’m sure there’s some choice in doing so, but the arm of the government also surely makes recruitment easier and participation strongly encouraged for those selected.

And, because other nations in Pan America put little emphasis on the sport Cuba has traditionally been a power in this hemisphere.  At times, they’ve even been competitive on the world scene.  But, every time this has happened defections have decimated the team.  Two notable players from earlier times are Rolando Urios and Carlos Perez who played for Spain and Hungary, respectively.

Capote’s defection is more recent and ironically enough Capote has now come back full circle to the city of his defection.  At the 2007 PANAM Games in Rio, Capote snuck out of his room with the clothes he had on, $300 and in the pouring rain he took a taxi to Sao Paulo where a former teammate was living.  Just 19 at the time, Capote then began a rather eclectic handball journey.  Playing first in Brazil, surely at a semi-professional or low paid level before moving on to Italy.  Italy is by no means a handball power, but for some reason it’s league that has been a stepping stone for a number of players from Latin America.  Obviously he played well otherwise he wouldn’t have been signed in Spain where he really started to get noticed, even becoming the EHF player of the week.  And, then when Qatar was awarded the World Cup, and hired a Spanish coach, it probably didn’t take Coach Rivera to consider bringing along a Cuban who hasn’t played internationally for several years.  Heck, I’m guessing that the crafty Rivera figured he could turn this pretty good back into a great back with a little time.  Something that’s clearly been accomplished and is just but one piece to the puzzle that has made this collection of decent cast offs a medal contender.

I wonder how Capote feels now having returned to the scene of his defection?  Just 9 years ago, he was 19 years old, scared, making the decision to leave the country of his birth (perhaps forever).  Surely not really knowing if this risk was worth taking.  Think about the “big decisions” you’ve made in your life and whether they pale in comparison. Talk about a leap of faith and crossing the Rubicon!  He could not have even imagined a journey that would take him from Brazil to Italy to Spain to Qatar and back to Rio nine years later as an Olympian. Walking into the opening ceremonies in flowing Arabic robes representing a country he probably had never heard of before.?  Heck, I can hardly imagine it.  And, while I’m no fan of the mercenary nature of the Qatari team I can’t fault Capote for taking this monetary and career opportunity.  Heck, I can’t help but root for him.

Rafael Capote Wikipedia page (Spanish): Link

Brazzil.com article on his defection in 2007: Link

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Podcast (Episode 2): New Handball Rules (Part 2)

I know what you are thinking regarding whether I’m going to call passive play: Do you have to shoot on goal yet? Have you made 5 passes or 6?  Do you feel lucky? Do ya, punk?

I know what you are thinking regarding whether I’m going to call passive play: Do you have to shoot on goal yet? Have you made 5 passes or 6? Do you feel lucky? Do ya, punk?

My discussion with Christer Ahl, the former IHF head for Playing Rules and Competition, continues.  In part 2 we discuss the new rules regarding passive play, the last 30 seconds of a match and blue cards

Point-Counter Point on Handball’s Last Minute Problem from 2009 (Or why I was so gleeful at Christer’s mea culpa)

Part 1: John: Time to add a technical penalty shot: Link
Part 2: Christer: John has good intentions, but gets his solutions from the wrong sources: Link
Part 3: John: No, Christer, post game sanctions are not working and referees should be empowered and trusted: Link

It’s not very often (heck, this might be the only time) that I’ve gotten Christer to side with me.  There’s a reason for this: He knows handball rules about 10 times better than I do.  But, every dog has his day

If the Dirty Harry reference has no meaning to you, here’s a link to the classic scene: Link

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2016 Olympics:  Men’s Team Handball Preview

The World's best court player and the world's best goalie.  Why would you predict any other side to win?

The World’s best court player and the world’s best goalie play for France which took gold in 2008 and 2012. Why would you predict any other side to win?

Tournament Format:  12 Men’s teams will be competing in the Olympics and preliminary play will consist of a round robin competition in 2 groups of 6.  The top 4 teams in each group will then advance to a knock out tournament consisting of quarter finals, semifinals, and finals (gold and bronze medal games).

Recent Results: The 2016 European Championships held this past January and the 2015 Men’s World Championships held in January 2015 are the most relevant recent reference points.  France won the World Championship with Qatar taking 2nd and Poland 3rd.   The more recent European Championships were won by a surprising German side which played excellent defense with a roster which featured several younger players.  Spain, which surprising failed to qualify for the Olympics placed 2nd and Croatia took 3rd.   France which has usually been in the semifinals of every major tournament finished a disappointing 5th.

2015 WC Results: Link

2016 EC Results: Link

Bookmaker Odds to Win Gold:  Below are the pre-tourney odds for each team to win the gold medal

France                  7-5
Denmark             7-2
Croatia                  7-1
German               10-1
Poland                  18-1
Qatar                     22-1
Slovenia               25-1
Sweden                28-1
Brazil                     50-1
Tunisia                  300-1
Egypt                     500-1
Argentina            2,000-1

These odds seem pretty accurate to me.  I would probably give Brazil, Tunisia and Egypt odds that are a bit closer to the lower tier European sides.  It’s hard to see them winning gold, but they can play with the Europeans.  Argentina could to, but minus injured star Diego Simonet they will likely not win a match.

Assessing Group Play:  First a few thoughts on the format.  Because 4 out of 6 teams will move on to the all important knockout tournament the first goal is simply to make it out of Group play.  Yes, a higher placement in the group should improve the odds that you will have a weaker quarterfinal opponent, but all too often this has not been the case.  And with Group A being a lot stronger (on paper) it could really be the case in this tournament.

Bookmaker Odds to Win Group A

France                  5-4
Denmark             11-4
Croatia                  5-1
Qatar                     10-1
Tunisia                  55-1
Argentina            225-1

I’ll start from the bottom and point out that Argentina will likely lose all 5 matches.  The next question, then is whether Tunisia can crack its way into the top 4.  I think they will put up a good fight in a couple of matches, but I don’t see them qualifying for the quarterfinals.  And, as previously discussed this is a ridiculously strong group.  France, Denmark, Croatia and Qatar could each win their quarterfinal match against their opponents coming from Group B.  Yes, Group A could simply be some friendly match previews of the semifinals when the outcomes will really count.

Bookmaker Odds to Win Group B

Germany             9-4
Poland                  7-2
Slovenia               7-2
Sweden                6-1
Brazil                     11-1
Egypt                     110-1

In my opinion this group is totally wide open with every side having a legitimate shot at reaching the quarterfinals.  The German wall in defense was very effective at the European Championships and they along with Poland should make it through.  Slovenia and Sweden, however, should watch out for Brazil and Egypt.  In fact, I think hosting will help propel Brazil to the knockout stage.

Overall Predictions:  As has been the case for the past decade or so there’s one big question.  Will France show up or not?  Basically, they win or the they somehow beat themselves.  Why is this the case?  Well, they’ve got the best player in the world, Nikola Karabatic, and the best goalkeeper in the world, Thierry Omeyer.  The supporting cast, however, isn’t quite what it used to be and that’s one of the reasons they disappointed at the recent European Championships.  I’m thinking they will show up and win their 3rd straight Olympic title.

As far as the other sides go, as I’ve implied I think Group A will sweep Group B in the quarters.  Only Germany and Poland have a decent chance.  Germany has shown they can play great defense, but I think they lack quality and consistency on the offensive end.  Poland is experienced and capable, but I also think they will come up short.

So, I’ll predict a final four of France, Denmark, Croatia and Qatar.  Qatar, as they’ve just shown with their 1st round convincing win over Croatia, is more than just a flash in the pan.  Still I think they are a bit thin depth wise and they will be a bit spent by the time the semifinals roll around.  Denmark has been a disappointment the past couple of tournaments, but they are due for a return to form.  I’ll go with France beating Denmark for Gold and Croatia beating Qatar for Bronze.

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2016 Olympics:  Women’s Team Handball Preview

Brazil celebrating their world championship in 2013.  Can the hosts also win an Olympic title?

Brazil celebrating their world championship in 2013. Can the hosts also win an Olympic title?

Tournament Format:  12 Women’s teams will be competing in the Olympics and preliminary play will consist of a round robin competition in 2 groups of 6.  The top 4 teams in each group will then advance to a knock out tournament consisting of quarter finals, semifinals, and finals (gold and bronze medal games).

2015 World Championship Results: The 2015 Women’s World Championships held last December is a good, if somewhat flawed reference point for projecting the tournament favorites.  Norway won the championship with the Netherlands and Romania taking 2nd and 3rd.  Norway has also won the last 2 Olympic tournaments and is the clear favorite on paper.  The Netherlands success has been more recent, but they also have a solid team.  Russia placed 5th at the worlds, but had an 8-1 record at the tournament including a 26-25 win over Norway.  Tournament hosts Brazil finished a disappointing 12th, but this was a result of losing to a strong opponent, Romanian in the round of 16.  Having won the 2013 World Championships and being the host they surely are a team to reckon with.

2015 WC Results: Link

Bookmaker Odds to Win Gold:  Below are the pre-tourney odds for each team to win the gold medal

Norway               15-8
Russia                   5-1
Brazil                     7-1
Netherlands       9-1
Romania              14-1
France                  16-1
Montenegro      16-1
Spain                     16-1
Sweden               22-1
S Korea                 35-1
Angola                  2,000-1
Argentina            4,000-1

These odds seem pretty reliable to me.  I would probably give Brazil a bit better odds, though then 7-1.  (Editor’s note:  I’m writing this after Brazil’s opening win against Norway, but I’d still say this even if Brazil had lost the match.)  I would also give South Korea a little more respect as they usually perform above expectations in Olympic tournaments.

Assessing Group Play:  First a few thoughts on the format.  Because 4 out of 6 teams will move on to the all important knockout tournament the importance of each individual game is minimized.  The first goal is simply to make it out of Group play.  Yes, a higher placement in the group should improve the odds that you will have a weaker quarterfinal opponent, but all too often this has not been the case.  And the way these groups have been drawn it’s a virtual certainty that there will be no cakewalk opponents in the quarterfinal.

Bookmaker Odds to Win Group A

Norway              13-10
Brazil                     7-2
Montenegro      8-1
Spain                     8-1
Romania              12-1
Angola                  275-1

These odds suggest that Norway and Brazil will go 1-2, while Montenegro, Spain and Romania will battle for the other 2 quarterfinal slots.  Angola is a real longshot.  They could conceivably surprise one team, but it’s a stretch to think they could pull off two wins.

Bookmaker Odds to Win Group B

Russia                   13-8
Netherlands       7-2
France                  5-1
Sweden                8-1
S. Korea               10-1
Argentina            600-1

Much like the Group A odds, this group is projected to be Russia-Netherlands 1-2 with France, Sweden and South Korea battling for the other 2 slots and Argentina being an even longer shot than Angola.  I’ll buy into that logic.

Overall Predictions:  I would assess Norway as a virtual lock for the semifinals.  And, based on Brazil’s first game win, one has to think that Brazil will be there as well.   I’m thinking Russia will be there as well and having missed out at the last world championships I’m thinking they’ll be pretty focused in their quarterfinal match.  The other semifinal slot could belong to any of the other teams except Angola and Argentina.  And, when it comes right down to it, everything will depend on those all important quarterfinal matchups.  A lot of handball is yet to be played, but if I’ve got to predict now I’ll go with Brazil knocking off Norway in a rematch for the gold with Russia taking 3rd.