An Early Xmas Present: EHF to give me the bits for Euro 2010!

As the self proclaimed world’s #1 proponent of internet web streaming of Handball matches I was very pleased and a little surprised by the EHF’s recent announcement of their upcoming Euro 2010 web package. The key sentence:

“All games of the EHF EURO in Austria will be available on the internet at a 500 kbit/s rate as well as at a [u][b]1.5 Mbit/s[/b][/u] rate so that subscribers can optimise the service to their own technical possibilities.”

For those of you who don’t know, 1.5 Megabit/second is a dramatic step up in service compared to previous offerings for the World and European Championships where speeds of 450 and 750 Kb/s have been the norm. 1.5 Mb/s isn’t quite the same picture quality you typically see on TV, but it’s very close and there’s a lot less pixilation when compared to 750 Kb/s.

Unfortunately, the service will not be available everywhere. Sorry handball fans in Germany, France, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Belarus you’ll be restricted to the TV matches in your respective countries. Not too often is it better to be a Handball fan in say, India or the U.S, but as long as TV executives are still living in 1999 instead of 2009 we’ll have to suffer through these archaic rights restrictions.

Finally, perhaps I shouldn’t celebrate too much just yet as it remains to be seen as to whether the actual package will match the advertisement. The Euro 2008 service was to put it kindly, less than satisfactory. The Euro 2010 throws off on 19 January.

EHF (16 Dec 09): Follow the EHF EURO 2010 live on your computer!: http://www.eurohandball.com/article/12777
THN: World Championship Handball Web Streaming: Slow, but Steady Progress (16 Jan 09): https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.673
Handball Video Streaming ($43 vs. Free): Hmmm…. I’ll take Free, Thank You (14 Feb 08): https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.455
THN: Women’s World Championship Video Streaming: More Bits Please (6 Dec 07): https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.423

World Championship Notes

A few items of note from the recent Women’s World Championships in China

Pool play provides a second chance: Runners-up France started this year’s tournament in dismal fashion losing to Brazil 22-20 and Denmark 24-16, before rolling off 7 straight victories over Congo, Sweden, Germany, Angola, Russia, Austria and Spain enroute to the final. A large pool of 6 teams gave France 5 games to get their act together and gel as a team. If the format had been with smaller pools of 4 or 5 teams France might very well have played in the President’s Cup.

Expat Fans: This article tells the story of a small group of French Expats that cheered on their team in China: http://www.globaltimes.cn/www/english/metro-beijing/community/news/2009-12/492415.html

Where were the fans?: The IHF put a brave face on the small numbers in attendance at their final press conference, but early round matches were very poorly attended with official crowds of 100 and in many instances less. One player blog commented that the players outnumbered the crowds in some cases. Other reports indicate that crowds for later matches were larger but inflated by what appeared to be “forced attendance” from groups that were wearing matching uniforms. Speculation aside, China was reportedly the only nation to bid for the event and the IHF should be commended for trying to promote the sport outside of Europe. The simple reality is that Women’s Handball, even more so than the Men’s game, has a very limited appeal outside of Scandinavia and the Balkans.
Chinaview.cn: IHF officials satisfied with handball World Championship in China (20 Dec 09): http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/20/content_12674741.htm

Minnows get whacked: The performance of nations like Australia, Chile and Thailand was less than spectacular and some European blogs and news reports have called for the return of the B World Championships. The B World Championships as the name implies was a secondary championship with lower ranked teams from around the world that the IHF used to hold. Entry into the A World Championships was then limited to the winners of the B World Championships in a promotion-relegation system. I’ll have more to say on this topic after I complete a “ranking of the continents” article, but here’s a story about Thailand’s experience in the meantime:
Haandbold.com: Thailand: Modest goals were achieved (21 Dec 09): http://www.haandbold.com/nyheder.php?id=19315

IHF’s GRTP — A success story, but the hard work needs to continue

Many of you will scratch your heads in trying to figure out what the acronym ‘GRTP’ stands for. I cannot blame you: it is mostly known by the insiders in the world of refereeing. But it stands for ‘[u]Global Referee Training Program’[/u], and I think you will be interested in hearing a bit about it.

Traditionally, the IHF always had a tough time recruiting talents for the level of international referees from most of the countries outside Europe. These countries generally do not have many resources to train young referees. Similarly, most countries in all continents used to be in the habit of identifying candidates for the international level in the age bracket of 30-40, so that in the past the typical age of IHF referees would be about 35-50.

It was, of course, becoming increasingly problematic that not enough countries could supply candidates. And then the age structure was becoming a problem for a couple of reasons. First, with the increasing demand on the top referees, with many more matches per year, it was becoming evident that not many can stay on to the mandatory retirement age of 50; for work or family reasons, they need to retire at a younger age. Then the stronger emphasis on the fitness of the referees, in line with increasing speed and physical action in a game, was also becoming a reason for a focus on a younger age bracket. Realistically, the career of an IHF referee would now more typically be something like 30-43. (In football, FIFA has a mandatory retirement age at 45!)

The idea of some form of a GRTP had always been supported by the IHF President. However, this support was offset by the impact of micromanagement. About 5 years ago, rather than further debating the precise procedures and methods, the Referee Commission found it possible to move ahead with a particular approach that we believed in, figuring that actual success would lead to retroactive agreement on the details. And the success was soon noticeable, not just in terms of a flow of viable candidates of the right age and from a broad spectrum of countries, but also in terms of a nice and enthusiastic collaboration from the federations concerned.

Since 2005, well over 20 GRTP courses have been held in 4 different continents. Most of the courses outside Europe are for the identification of candidates and initial training. Annually, there are then some major youth tournaments in Europe used as a basis for further training and testing of the candidates. The viable candidates tend to need 2 or 3 courses before they can be seen as beginning to meet the standards for an IHF referee. The testing includes not just match performances and fitness, but also English proficiency and social competence. After all, these young referees are not placed on the IHF List just as an honor or as an indication of talent for the longer term; they must be ready to handle a Junior World Championship typically within a year or so.

Looking at the results in terms of numbers, the quick progress of the GRTP is really astounding. For the 2009-10 season, there are about 80 couples on the IHF List, and almost exactly three quarters of them have come up through the GRTP in recent years. So the overall turnover on the List has been tremendous, something that is partly due to a much higher rate of rate of retirements than had been expected, and partly because the progress of the new talents has enabled the IHF to release some older referees who had begun to stagnate or decline. In other words, the success of the GRTP has really been very fortunate and timely.

The success has not just been noticeable in terms of numbers. The best part of the experience was the widespread praise from coaches and other team officials in connection with the Junior and Youth World Championships this past summer. The assessment was that the standard of refereeing at this type of events was higher than ever. Even more remarkable is that 13 of the 16 couples nominated for the just concluding Women’s World Championship are GRTP ‘graduates’, and the same goes for 7 of the 12 couples nominated for the Men’s European Championship. This experience should really provide a lot of encouragement for future recruits. It is possible, through hard work and determination, to combine one’s talents with the IHF’s support into a strong and rewarding international career.

The only surprising and disappointing note is that some of the countries that in the past, prior to the introduction of the GRTP, always tended to supply good IHF referees, now seem to have become complacent or have not quite understood the new methods and procedures. In some cases, they are stuck in the traditions of giving priority to older referees. The countries I am referring to are mainly to be found among traditional handball countries in ‘western’ Europe, whereas, in nice contrast, almost all countries in ‘eastern’ Europe have quickly taken advantage of the GRTP route. The progress in the other continents has also been remarkable. So, please, ‘wake up’ those of you who must realize that my finger is pointing at you!

It is of course very nice if young referees with relatively limited international experience are already capable of handling the biggest events. But this is not a cause for complacency and relaxation. The experience in the Women’s World Championship has been generally positive, albeit with the usual sprinkling of sudden shakiness, just as among the teams. But this does [u]not[/u] mean that these referees have already become an established ‘elite’. They have climbed quickly to this level, and most of them met the expectations of the IHF and of the teams. But it is a well-known fact that [u]nobody can get firmly established at the top without a lot more experience and, especially, a lot of hard work, year after year[/u].

IHF must now shift gear and focus more on continued [u]nurturing of the already existing talents[/u], i.e., more on solidifying the quality than on just increasing the quantity of GRTP graduates beyond what is really needed. And the respective [u]national and continental federations must also provide strong support[/u]. The top group needs constant coaching and supervision. One particular concern is the lack of continuous international match experience for the non-European members the emerging elite group. For them it is not realistic to remain competitive solely on the basis of the games available within their own respective continents. IHF and the federations in Europe must be willing to offer them frequent opportunities in a systematic manner!

USA Team Handball Board Meets: Announces full certification by the USOC

The USA Team Handball Board of Directors (BOD) met yesterday in Salt Lake City. The meeting was its first as the fully sanctioned National Governing Body recognized by the United States Olympic Committee. On Monday, the USOC Board had removed the “probationary” status granted in April 2008. The move cements USA Team Handball’s status as the recognized Federation for Team Handball in the U.S. and is a significant milestone for the new Federation.

The Board of Director’s meeting covered a number of topics including USA Team Handball’s By-laws and budget. Although not explicitly stated it can also be implied that the Chairman and General Manager’s reports included some discussion in regards to the near term and long term plans for National Team competition and player/grass roots development. Team Handball News has put in a request for budgetary and planning information and will post that information when it becomes available.

USA Team Handball: Board of Directors to meet (15 Dec 09): http://usateamhandball.org/news/2009/12/15/board-of-directors-to-meet/29918
USA Team Handball: USOC formally certifies USA Team Handball (16 Dec 09): http://usateamhandball.org/news/2009/12/16/usoc-formally-certifies-usa-team-handball/29952?ngb_id=42
THN Commentary: USA Team Handball (Year 1 Report Card) (14 Oct 09): https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?extend.847

USOC Narrows CEO field to 6: 1 candidate has a big Handball connection

The United States Olympic Committee (USOC) has reportedly narrowed the field of potential Chief Executives to 6 candidates. The unconfirmed candidates are:

– TD Ameritrade chairman Joe Moglia
– Former baseball executive Sandy Alderson
– Current chief operating officer Norm Bellingham
– Former general counsel and interim CEO of the USOC, Scott Blackmun
– Jet Set Sports president Mark Lewis
– USA Swimming CEO Chuck Wielgus

The candidate with the big Handball connection is Mark Lewis, who’s married to former USA Olympian, National Team Coach and NBC Olympics commentator, Dawn Allinger Lewis. Obviously, the selection of Lewis would result in a CEO very, very much in tune with the trials and tribulations of USA Team Handball. According to a report in the Seattle Times, Lewis is a very strong marketer, bringing in record sponsorship for the Salt Lake City Olympics and later growing Jet Set Sport’s corporate hospitality business. The same article, however, implies that Lewis has also benefitted substantially from the revolving door that is part of what the expose calls the less than transparent “Olympic Family.”

The USOC hopes to select the new CEO in January just prior to the 2010 Winter Olympics.

LA Times Olympics Blog (11 Dec 09): U.S. swim boss, ex-Padres CEO among finalists for U.S. Olympic Committee CEO: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/olympics_blog/
AP (14 Dec 09): Ameritrade chairman USOC CEO finalist: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jD8XlqyUijfWqsZWC8jupreOTmwQD9CJE7VG0
Seattle Times Olympics Insider (11 Dec 09): Report: Jet Set president Lewis a finalist for top USOC job: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/ronjuddsolympicsinsider/2010486875_report_jet_set_president_lewis.html
Seattle Times (17 Nov 09): Olympic business stays in the 'family': http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/olympics/2010284615_olytickets17.html
Seattle Times Special Report: Freezing out the Fans (4 part report on Olympic ticketing): http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/olympicticketing/

Alex Gavrilovic: a true fighter for the global progress of handball (Part 3)

Previous installments focused more on the Sydney Olympics and on the progress of handball in Australia and Oceania. The links are:

Part 1: https://teamhandballnews.com/2009/11/alex-gavrilovic-a-true-fighter-for-the-global-progress-of-handball-part-1/

Part 2: https://teamhandballnews.com/2009/12/alex-gavrilovic-a-true-fighter-for-the-global-progress-of-handball-part-2-of-3/

[i]CA: I am sure that the Londoners are happy to be able to draw on your experience, but what made you decide to get involved in the Olympics a second time? Isn’t there a risk that nothing can ever beat the experience of doing it the first time and furthermore in your own country?[/i]

AG: As elated as I was with my own performance and achievements in Sydney 2000, I felt that handball in the English-speaking world has not generally benefited from Olympics in such countries. As you commented earlier, handball in the USA, and I can certainly confirm similarly in Australia, has not blossomed as a consequence of either Atlanta 1996 or Sydney 2000. These were valuable opportunities which appear to have largely been under-utilised by the sport. There are clear similarities between Sydney 2000 and London 2012, for example in terms of the challenges to prepare handball for an Olympic Games in a nation where handball is not a dominant sport, the challenges to attract spectator and media interest in the sport and in the importance of ensuring that a lasting legacy is achieved as a result of hosting the Olympics.

Accordingly, I felt that my experience in Sydney and my knowledge of the lessons learned and opportunities to come, would be of assistance to LOCOG and British Handball in particular and to handball in English-speaking nations in general. Hence my interest in being involved in London. At a personal level, the opportunity to exceed my achievements in Sydney in another country at another Olympic Games was a challenge I could not resist.

You may be right, I might find that nothing can beat the Sydney 2000 experience at a personal level, but I have so far found that my involvement with London 2012 has regenerated my enthusiasm for the sport and made me even more determined to do whatever I can to promote handball and to make it a truly “world sport”.

[i]CA: At this time, with less than 3 years to go, how do you see the comparison of where the preparations are at, as between Sydney and London, both in handball and overall?[/i]

AG: My impression is that LOCOG is generally substantially in advance of where Sydney was at the same stage in its preparation for the Olympics. What a wonderful coincidence that London, like Sydney, has an area, virtually in the heart of the city, to develop an Olympic site! That handball will be in a “permanent” structure destined to remain a legacy sporting venue is a great boost for the sport. Whilst I am not yet full-time with LOCOG (and due to start there in January 2010) I have had a good deal of contact with them and I am enjoying the opportunity to input into many aspects of the organisation, including the design and construction of the venue’s functional areas, since 2008. Additionally and importantly, I have already had an opportunity to establish a working relationship with the British Handball Association, via Paul Goodwin in particular. I am very comfortable with where planning and construction are for handball at the moment. I think that London 2012 is already doing a great job and achieving major milestones as an organisation.

[i]CA: Especially from a handball standpoint, what do you see as the main remaining challenges for being able to put on a good show in 2012?[/i]

AG: There are of course many challenges in putting on a complex event like an Olympic handball event; however, in no particular order, the challenges include: ensuring that the venue meets the sport’s needs; identifying, recruiting, training and managing a workforce of around 200+ staff and volunteers for the handball competition; managing the expectations and needs of the IHF leading up to, during and after the Olympics; ensuring that there is a strong legacy for handball in the English-speaking world after London 2012; bringing the sport of handball to the media and people of Britain: making them more knowledgeable and aware of the sport and ensuring that attendance at the Olympics exceeds expectations; creating an environment for a technically perfect international handball competition; pushing the boundaries of the presentation of the sport during the Olympics to ensure the best possible spectator experience and impact.

[i]CA: As many of the challenges listed by Alex are really formidable, it really should be reassuring to all of us to have someone like Alex lined up for the absolutely critical job as Competition Manager. There is no risk that he will underestimate the task, he clearly has the best possible experience, and I think you can hear how his enthusiasm is coming through loud and clear. At this point, I will simply thank Alex for making himself available in such a generous manner and we all wish him the very best of luck with the preparations and for a successful event in 2012.[/i]

USA Team Handball Veteran with seat on USOC Reform Group

Former USA National Team Goalie, Matt Van Houten has been selected to be a member of the United States Olympic Committee (USOC) reform advisory group being headed by former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue. The reform group has been tasked to assess the current USOC board and committee structure and make recommended changes.

Van Houten told Team Handball News (THN) that the panel has a good balance of objective outsiders and representatives from the USOC’s key constituent groups. He also believes that it will be a positive step towards improving the overall position of the US Olympic family both domestically and internationally. Van Houten, who is no stranger to the challenges a smaller National Governing Body (NGB) faces within the USOC structure indicated that a less influential NGB like team handball can only benefit from this process.

This is the second key appointment for Van Houten, who is also a member of the committee that will select the next USOC CEO.

LA Times Olympics Blog: Latest USOC reform group shows promise by avoiding usual suspects: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/olympics_blog/2009/12/latest-usoc-reform-group-shows-promise-by-avoiding-usual-suspects.html
Associated Press: USOC critic, Chicago bid chief join advisory panel: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hYxUVXZza67KgwSXEchGtHqh7AHgD9CGU8B00
Associated Press: Ex-NFL commish looks for solutions at USOC: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hxeQCi82qvrlBhEIu2tbfA9yzvAgD9CHKH9O0

In search of a Handball Invictus

The sports movie is as American as apple pie. American football has Brian’s Song and Remember the Titans. Baseball has Field of Dreams, Bull Durham and the Natural. Basketball has Hoosiers and Hockey has Miracle! and Slap Shot. Soccer has Goal! and Victory. And now Rugby has Invictus.

Invictus (Latin for unbeaten), opened in theaters this weekend in North America and South Africa. The film depicts South Africa’s 1995 Rugby World Cup championship and Nelson Mandela’s statesmanship in using his support of the “whiteman’s game” to help bring his country together. The film is directed by Clint Eastwood and stars Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela and Matt Damon as the South African team captain, Francois Pienaar. It’s a wonderful story line and there is already talk of it being an Oscar contender.

Aside from the movie itself, the promotional impact for the sport of Rugby in the U.S. will be massive. Commercials have been frequently promoting the movie during NFL and college American football games. Literally, millions of potential fans/players will see the movie either in theaters or DVD in the coming year. For youngsters not familiar with the sport, they will soon be asking where can I play this game. For old timers with misconceptions, it will be their first real exposure to the sport and it will squash whatever notions they had that rugby is merely an excuse for college kids to drink beer. Follow on effects will be more players and more customer demand for matches on TV. Add in Rugby 7’s (a modified version of the 15 a side game) recent inclusion to the Olympic program and you could not ask for a better publicity blitz.

Right now, one can only dream of a Team Handball movie with the kind of star power and promotion Invictus has behind it. There have been a couple of films with Handball themes. Korea’s “Forever the Moment” chronicles the 2004 Women’s Olympic team and did pretty good business in that country. The independent film “Machan” tells a fictionalized version of the phony Sri Lankan Handball team that used handball as a ploy to emigrate to Europe. These are nice films, but you really need major studio backing to have an Invictus like impact.

You also would need a compelling story and right now I’m not aware of any Handball story that could be sold to a major studio. Maybe an Iceland Gold medal in Beijing would have fit the bill, but it lacks the inner conflict that South Africa had in 1995 or the USSR-USA rivalry backdrop that USA hockey had in 1980. Maybe Bosnia & Herzegovina could go on an improbable run to an Olympic medal with a multi-ethnic team of Bosnians, Croats and Serbs playing side by side. Certainly, that would be an achievement, but still it would be tough to sell a sport even less well known than rugby.

Got an idea for Handball movie plot: Share it on our Facebook page

VIDEO: Invictus Trailer
THN (27 Aug 07): Can you teach an old dog a new trick
THN (10 Nov 08): In Search of a Handball Zee Ngwenya:
THN (9 Jul 08): Korean Handball Movie Available Online:
THN (3 Sep 08): Sri Lankan Handball Movie Debuts at Venice Film Festival

World Championship format — there are good solutions!

A World Championship serves many purposes, so there are inevitably conflicting objectives and views regarding the best format. Almost any format will help us determine the medal winners in a fair manner. But beyond that, there are many different opinions.

Some argue that a World Championship with x teams should have as it overriding objective the participation of the x best teams in the world. (It seems to me that football could argue that they come close to that, but no one has explained how this could be easily achieved in a sport like handball). Others note that the main thing is to have close and exciting games between evenly matched teams, for the sake of attractive TV coverage and good PR for our sport. But many remind us that we are talking about a [u]World[/u] Championship and that all continents must have a chance to participate fully.

Unfortunately, there has been too little debate about how these seemingly conflicting objectives could come together under one particular format. Most of the ‘debate’ has focused on whether 24 teams should be divided into 6 groups of 4 or into 4 groups of 6. Sorry, but this is just a bit too ‘myopic’. If experienced people came together, surely many interesting ideas could come out of a thorough and uninhibited brainstorming. I am prepared to offer one particular idea, without any claims that it is the ‘best’ idea, let alone the only idea. But at least it shows that one can find ways of combining objectives.

The teams from the non-European continents want to participate in THE World Championship. They do not want to be told to go and play in a ‘B’ World Championship. They want to see and learn from the top teams. But they are sometimes a bit naïve: I read that the players from Thailand saw it as’ the best thing that had ever happened to them’ that they had had the chance to play against Russia, even if they lost 8-45. I am afraid that nobody else is interested in, or helped by, such a game. This is not why we organize a World Championship.

But there are stronger teams, ‘just below the top’, from all continents, who genuinely want to have a chance to play against solid teams from other continents, where the winners advance to the final stages and games against the real top teams. These teams deserve such a chance. And it should happen within the framework of one big event.

The top teams, who often also have many of the top individual players, who are already ‘stretched to the limit’ in their club teams, probably would not mind an event that is somewhat shortened for them and where they avoid some of the most one-sided games. So what does this point to?

The idea would be to keep 24 teams (qualifying in the same way as the 24 teams who are now in China) but to allow 8 top teams to go directly to a ‘main round’, saving 4-5 days for them. These would be the highest-seeded teams, but with the caveat that Africa, America, and Asia would need to be represented among the 8, so typically there would be the top 5 Europeans and 3 Continental champions.

The teams ranked 9-24 would play in 4 preliminary groups of 4, with more or less the current seeding procedures, so that the teams would get to play teams from the other continents. The best two in each group would advance to the main round, while the lowest two would go to a President’s Cup for the places 17-24, ensuring them enough games in total to make the experience worthwhile.

In the ‘main round’, there would again be 4 groups of 4, with 2 of the 8 top teams in each group, together with 2 each of the other 8 teams that had just shown (the days before, not one or two years before) that they were the most competitive ones of the remainder, deserving an opportunity to play against the top teams for a chance at the absolute top positions. This ‘main round’ format with 4×4 teams then lends itself to many different possibilities for the final stage, with quarterfinals, with 2 semifinal groups or whatever you want.

This gives ALL the 24 teams a chance, not just to play until the end, but to move towards the final round IF they really are good enough. It eliminates some of the worst one-sided games and conversely, it leads to proportionately many more games where the result is extremely important. Again, I have no vested interest in this specific approach, but I do believe it shows that new, useful ideas can come up if one only really tries.

Feedback would be appreciated, including your own alternative ideas!
Chime in our our Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Team-Handball-News/108817968908

Online sports viewing: Skeptic changes tune

Philip Hersh, who writes for the Olympics Blog at the Los Angeles Times has a posting on live webcasts of figure skating. He first highlights a statement he made 3 years ago concerning the state of figure skating on TV.

“The forecast is so ominous that it could turn figure skating into primarily an Internet sport as a broadcast commodity, barely a decade after its over-the-air network TV ratings and income were sky high."

He then backtracks from this original statement to note that:
1) The quality of webcasts are improving and younger viewers are more inclined to watch them on their computer
2) The internet is giving more fans the opportunity to watch it live
3) The TV revenue has decreased, but the adspace on the ice rinks are still getting exposure.

As perhaps the world’s biggest proponent of online webcasts for handball, I can only say hear-hear. The IHF is making the Women’s World Championship available and the EHF even provides Champions League matches for free. If only the Liga Asobal, Handball Bundesliga and others would realize that the TV money will come if they make their product available to more folks on line. The sooner the better.

LA Times (8 Dec 09): Webcasts no longer doomsday for figure skating: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/olympics_blog/2009/12/we.html
THN (22 Sep 09): German Bundesliga blocks internet Handball broadcasts to rest of world: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.827

Are lower division Handball leagues subject to corruption?

These recent articles in the New York Times highlights a recent soccer match fixing scandal in the lower divisions of German soccer. What’s depicted here could also describe the situation in Handball’s lower leagues in Europe or even to a certain extent the top leagues as Handball players are not nearly as well compensated.

New York Times: Soccer on Fields Ripe for Fixing: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/07/sports/soccer/07soccer.html?pagewanted=all

New York Times: Player Pulled Into Soccer Betting Maelstrom (8 Dec 09):

Pulling the goalie outside the last minute: Statistical nonsense?

Perhaps you might have noticed that more clubs seem to be pulling their goalie earlier in matches. Traditionally, this risky tactic has been reserved for the very last minute of a match because the risk of an open net has been seen as too great. Lately, however, more and more clubs are using this tactic when they lose a player for two minutes. The logic apparently being that they are better off keeping an equal 6 on 6 balance while on offense. Typically, the extra court player plays backcourt for about 15 seconds and then substitutes out for the “real” goalie.

And sometimes the “real” goalie plays offense and as Constanta’s Mihai Popescu shows they can even score. Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSP9w83YJ0g

So does the possibility of an 12 meter cannonball strike by your pulled goalie justify the risk of your opposition getting an easy goal into an empty net? My intuitive reaction has been that this strategy is total nonsense. After all, if pulling your goalie was such a good idea why don’t teams do it for an entire game?

But, being that I’m an Engineer (in my day job) I decided to run some numbers to back up my intuition. In doing so I was surprised to find out that this strategy isn’t as foolhardy as I thought. In fact, depending on how likely you think different outcomes are it’s a sound strategy.

For the sake of argument let’s make the following assumptions:

Likelihood of Team A scoring when:
– Down a man (5 on 6): 15%
– Pulling a goalie (6 on 6): 30% (note: this is not the same as a regular 6 on 6 since the “6th man” often stays back a little in order to be ready for the substitution

Likelihood of different Team A readiness levels on their next defense as a result of their trying to score with a pulled goalie:
– Fully ready (Made goal): 30%
– Fully ready (no fastbreak opportunity for Team B ): 20%
– Partially ready (partial fastbreak; resulting in the goalie not being fully ready to defend): 30%
– Open goal (turnover or easily recovered missed shot results in an open net): 20%

Likelihood of Team B scoring:
– When Team A is fully ready: 60%
– When Team A is partially ready: 80%
– When there is an open net: 98%

Using these percentages it can then be calculated that the pulled goalie strategy is marginally superior. (For those so inclined the math is in the in the extended text.) With the pulled goalie strategy a team can expect to be up a goal 12% of the time; tied 33%; and down 1 goal 55%. The traditional strategy results in being up a goal 6% of the time, tied 43%, and down 1 goal 51%. Or to think of it in terms of expected value, pulling a goalie results in a -.436 deficit vs. -.45 for the traditional strategy. A razor thin margin for sure, but still a slight nod to the pulling the goalie strategy.

Now we can argue if the percentages chosen are “representative”. Truth be told, they will vary greatly depending on the teams playing. Accordingly, so should the decision on what strategy should be taken. In general, if your defense is not very good under normal circumstances, the more sense it makes to pull your goalie. In other words, if they are going to score against you anyway, you might as well improve your chances to score against them. Conversely, if Thierry Omeyer is in the goal it would be foolish not to keep him in the goal where even an uncontested fast break is no sure thing. This is why I question former Norway National Team coach, Marit Breivik’s use of this tactic. With one of the best teams in the world and a more than competent goalie the odds suggests that this might have been a suspect strategy.

Another question worth contemplating is whether certain clubs might even want to consider playing 7 on 6 full time. And indeed some of the weaker Champions League clubs have done exactly this against the elite clubs for significant stretches of a match. Such a move is very disruptive, but it usually doesn’t take too long for the top clubs to adjust and punish the tactic. Reportedly, the Argentine women have been using this tactic at the World Championships in China, but based on results it hasn’t been too successful.

For more on the math involved see the extended text

For a traditional defense where the goalie stay put it’s relatively simple
Percent Team A scores (5 on 6) – Percent Team B scores (when Team A is fully ready on defense) or simply .15 -.60 = -.45

Or to think of it another way if this situation happens 100 times the resultant outcomes would be
9% Team A: 1; Team B:1
6% Team A: 1; Team B:0
51% Team A:0; Team B:1
34% Team A:0 Team B:0

The calculation for pulling the goalie is a little more complex due to the varying states of defensive readiness and the varying times they face that particular state of readiness:

Percent Team A scores (6 on 6) –
[(% Team B scores against fully ready Team A x % time Team A scores) +
(% Team B scores against fully ready Team A x % time Team B has no fastbreak opportunity) +
(% Team B scores against partially ready Team A x % time Team A is only partially ready) +
(% Team B scores against empty net x % time there is a an empty net)]

.30 – [(.60 x .3) + (.60 x .2) + (.80 x .3) + (.98 x .2)] = -.436

18% Team A: 1; Team B:1
12% Team A: 1; Team B:0
55% Team A:0; Team B:1
15% Team A:0 Team B:0

Egypt reverses decision: Will host African Championships after all

According to the Egyptian website, Yallakora.com, the Egyptian Handball Federation has reversed their earlier decision to withdraw as host for the African Championship next February. On Monday, the Egyptian Federation had notified the African Handball Federation (CAHB) that they would not host the tournament due to lingering safety concerns due to heightened tensions following the controversial Egypt-Algeria World Cup soccer qualifying matches in November.

As a result of Egypt’s withdrawal the CAHB had offered other nations the opportunity to host the event. Morocco, Tunisia and Libya had expressed interest in hosting, but did not formally apply. Instead, it appears that Algeria was the lone bidder for the tournament. Faced with the possibility that the Egyptian team would have to travel to Algeria, the Egyptian Federation informed the CAHB that they would be able to host after all.

Yallakora.com: Egypt is declining in its decision and the governing African Cup of Nations Handball: http://www.yallakora.com/arabic/news/details.aspx?id=104459&Catid=5&region