Going into the tournament France and Croatia were the heavy favorites. With only a few hiccups they’ve marched towards destiny and a final game full of anticipation. Both sides had easy wins in their semifinal matches and should be well rested. France dispatched Denmark without defensive standout Didier Dinart, but he is expected to play in the Final. They’ll need him and his strength to handle Croatian circle runner Igor Vori, who is having an outstanding tournament. Croatia has rested Ivano Balic throughout the tournament, but expect him to play more in this final than he has all tournament

So who’s going to win? Well man for man, I give the edge to France. If I had both sides in which to fill out one roster it would have 5 French starters: Guigou and Abalo at wing; Karabatic and Narcisse in the backcourt and Ohmeyer in goal. Croatia would add Vori at Circle Runner and Metlicic at right back. And, of course, I would have Dinart subbing in on defense. But, this match is being played in Zagreb, so these personnel shortcomings are offset by a loud and raucous crowd.

The bookies have called this game a pick em, with neither side favored. I’m going to give the edge, however, to France. They lost a close semifinal game to Germany two years ago in which the home crowd and some friendly officiating resulted in a narrow loss. They know, or they should know, that they will need their “A” Game to overcome the intangibles of playing a very good team in their home country. I think they will get an early lead and keep Croatia at arms length for the rest of the match.

If and when that happens the next discussion will be about whether we are seeing the beginnings of a dynasty taking shape.

1) What’s the significance of Croatia’s 22-19 victory over France. With both teams already qualified and resting key players the match was the equivalent of a “friendly”. One would be wise not to make too much of it. Still, a win is a win and Croatia’s win means that they will have a slightly easier opponent (Poland, instead of Denmark) in the semifinals.

2) Is it better preparation for the semifinals to play tough “win or go home“ matches or easy matches? France and Croatia had a relatively easy time of it in their main round group. Group II, however was a dogfight, with almost every match closely contested. Poland carried 0 points into the main round and needed 3 victories in 3 matches to have any chance of advancing. They did just that with convincing victories over Denmark and Serbia before squeaking out a victory in the waning seconds against Norway. Essentially, they’ve won 3 straight “elimination matches” while Croatia has been on cruise control since an opening match scare against South Korea. So, the answer to the question? It depends. In Poland’s case it’s probably helped their psyche some, but it can also be emotionally draining. For France and Croatia, it’s been a tremendous opportunity to rest their players, something both sides needed. All in all, at this level, I’d say the players will be ready for the semifinals regardless of how they got there. Being well rested is a good thing.

3) Has Didier Dinart fully recovered from his thigh injury? In Saturday’s match against Sweden, Dinart came up limp with a thigh (perhaps hamstring?) injury. He exercised on Thursday and will play in Friday’s semifinal, but whether he’s 100% or not remains to be seen.

4) What exactly is so special about Dinart anyway? Dinart’s name doesn’t show up in the score line much, but he is clearly the key to France’s excellent 5-1 defense. In the 5-1 defense Dinart plays the “3” or middle position along the 6 meter line. What make’s Dinart so effective is his ability to tie up the offensive circle runner player and at the same time step up quickly to defuse breakthrough situations and jump shots at 9 meters.

Playing the 5-1 defense helps disrupt the backcourt players and get them out of their rhythm for their jump shots, but it’s a tradeoff, in that the 5-1 is more susceptible to offensive breakthroughs. It’s all a matter of the amount of court space that you have to cover. With a 6-0 defense, 6 players are covering the arc, so the distance around the arc is split 6 ways. With a 5-1, 5 players cover the arc, so each player is responsible for a little more space on either side of him. That extra foot or two may not seem like much, but as a former defensive specialist myself, I know firsthand that just a little more quickness (or a little less ground to cover) makes all the difference when you’re guarding 1 on 1 or helping out a teammate. Dinart has that quickness and his ability to cover so much ground in the center makes it almost seem sometimes as if France is playing a 6-1 defense instead of a 5-1. If Dinart is full strength look for France to advance. But if he isn’t, Denmark’s chance are as good as France’s are.

5) Who will win? I’m banking on a France – Croatia final this Sunday. The sports books are as well. Croatia is a 4 goal favorite over Poland, while France is a 2.5 goal favorite over Denmark.

1) Who realistically can make it to the semifinals?

This year’s championships does not have quarterfinals, so the only two places that matter in each main round group is 1st and 2nd . Going 5-0-0 or 4-1-0 (W-D-L) will get you in for sure. 4-0-1 will also likely qualify, with the only negative scenario being a 3 way group tie for first place and losing the goal differential tie breaker. Getting through with a 3-1-1 or 3-0-2 record, however, is a little dice and generally requires the 1st place team going 5-0-0 and the rest of the group knocking each other off.

So with that little math lesson taken care of here’s a quick run down for each group

[b]Group I Current Standings[/b] (3 games left for each team)
France 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Croatia 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Sweden 2-0-1 2 Pts (Win all 3 games and have Croatia beat France)
Hungary 0-1-1 1 Pt (Win all 3 games and have France win all 3)
Slovakia 0-1-1 1 Pt (Win all 3 games and have France win all 3)
S Korea 0-0-2 0 Pts (Win all 3 games, have Croatia win all 3 games and win a tiebreaker at 6 Pts)

I don’t see France losing 2 games. Perhaps Hungary could knock off Croatia and sneak through. Unlikely, but possible. Look for France and Croatia to advance.

[b]Group II Current Standings[/b] (3 games left for each team)
Denmark 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Germany 2-0-0 4 Pts (2 more wins and they’re in)
Serbia 2-0-1 2 Pts (Win all 3 games and have Denmark beat Germany)
Macedonia 2-0-1 1 2 Pts (Win all 3 games and have Germany beat Denmark)
Norway 0-0-2 0 Pts (Win all 3 games, have Denmark win all 3 and win a tiebreaker at 6 Pts)
Poland 0-0-2 0 Pts (Win all 3 games, have Germany win all 3 and win a tiebreaker at 6 Pts)

This Group is a lot more interesting, as any of these teams can beat one another without it being a major surprise. In fact, I would argue that each of these teams with the possible exception of Macedonia could run the table in the next 3 games. It won’t surprise me one bit if a 3-0-2 record and 6 points is enough to get 2nd place. At that point the tiebreakers, head to head and goal differential will kick in.

2) Can South Korean get 9th place and why does that matter? Yes, this is certainly in the realm of possibility as all they need to do is beat either Slovakia or Hungary to get 5th place in their group and then play in the 9th place match. It matters, because 9th place would give Asia an extra slot at the 2011 World Championships. This assumes, of course, that the IHF doesn’t change the qualification rules.

3) Who’s the biggest disappointment of this year’s tournament? Without question it has to be Spain. 3rd at the Olympics 5 months ago they’ve been banished to the President’s Cup. I’m sure they’re relishing their key matchup against Australia later today. Iker Romero has even apologized to his fellow countrymen: http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_19753.shtml A close second is Russia. Look for those two teams to play each other for 13th place in what are perhaps the two best teams to fail to make it out of the preliminary round.

4) Who’s the biggest surprise of this year’s tournament? 3 teams, Serbia, Macedonia and South Korea share that mantle so far. South Korea has definitely impressed, giving Croatia a scare in the opener and then beating Spain for the first time ever.

Korea Times Article on victory against Spain: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/01/136_38431.html

Macedonia is riding the back of standout Right Back, Kiril Lazarov. Lazarov leads all scorers with 53 goals in 5 matches. Macedonia fans have made the Croatian arenas feel like home and this article indicates that more are on the way for Main Round:
http://www.makfax.com.mk/look/novina/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=2&NrArticle=138724&NrIssue=879&NrSection=10

Serbia, has a more balanced attack and has the greatest potential to continue their success into the main round. They had a surprising loss to Brazil, but were able to bounce back and knock Norway off 27-26. And they should have won their match against Denmark. They led by 7 with 20 minutes left and let Denmark rally for the victory on a last second shot. What will be interesting to see, however, is the reception the Serbs will receive in Zadar. This article notes that the Serb fans were welcomed in Porec, a resort town not to far from Italy. Zadar, however, was attacked by Serbs during the Balkan wars and tensions may be higher there: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/16168/

5) Can anybody stop France? Anything’s possible, but as I’ve said before, if you have the World’s best goalie, Thierry Omeyer, the world’s best court defender, Didier Dinart, and the World’s best all-around player, Nikola Karabatic you are the team to beat. Additionally, the memory of their loss to Germany at the 2007 WC in Germany is still fresh in their minds. They should know what it takes to beat a good team hosting the World Championships. So, if anybody can stop France… it will be themselves.

In Part 1 http://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?extend.671, I sought to frame the argument by defining some key terms in the official complaint. Namely what it means to be a federation and what it means to be a sanctioning authority. In Part 2, I look below the surface in an attempt to understand what really is going on.

[b]Underlying Relationships, Possible Agendas and Playing Nice[/b]

[b]Underlying Relationships[/b]

To fully understand the dynamic of what’s going on here a little history lesson is in order. As most everyone knows, Team Handball in the USA has never had much success. In 2005, this lack of success and toxic infighting between Board Members and then USA Team Handball President, Mike Hurdle, led to the USOC’s decision to withdraw all its funding support and eventually decertify USA Team Handball as the sport’s National Governing Body (NGB). The USOC then took direct responsibility for the sport’s administration on an interim basis and in 2007 requested bids from organizations to become the sport’s new NGB.

Two camps submitted bids, the Utah Team Handball Federation (UTHF) and the American Team Handball Association (ATHA). The UTHF bid, which eventually was selected, was led by Dieter Esch. The ATHA bid, was more of a group effort and had three prominent spokesman, Marius Wartalowicz, Cristian Zaharia and Bogdan Pasat. And if all of those names don’t sound familiar here’s a short cheat sheet:

Dieter Esch: The current President of USA Team Handball
Mariusz Wartalowicz: The current Technical Director of USA Team Handball
Cristian Zaharia: The principal organizer of the Miami Tournament and ATHF Senior Vice President of Sports Operations
Bogdan Pasat: ATHF Member and one of the Editors/writers of Team Handball News

As I reported earlier http://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.381, there were pros and cons for both bid packages. I felt that the ATHA bid had a much more developed plan, but that the UTHF had a greater likelihood of securing funding. In particular, it had Dieter Esch’s marketing connections and a promise of $350K (either 7 Board of Directors at $50K each or $350K of his own money). But as ATHA’s bid unraveled with Zaharia and Pasat resigning due a disagreement with Wartalowicz, it was (at least in my opinion) a foregone conclusion that the UTHF was the likely winner and this was confirmed with the USOC’s announcement in May 2008.

Since that time Mariusz Wartalowicz has been hired http://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.657by the new Federation… while Bogdan Pasat was not. This was at least partly due to a negative article he wrote on the new Federation in August of last year. If you check out the comments you‘ll notice his quotation of an email he received from Steve Pastorino: http://teamhandballnews.com/comment-n585.html And, of course, most recently we have the announcement of a new Federation, the American Team Handball Federation (ATHF), which sounds curiously like the name of the failed bid, American Team Handball Association (ATHA).

[b]Possible Agendas[/b]

Now as I head into this section, I’m treading into an area that I try to stay out of for the most part. This is because, even if you can make a compelling argument, you can never prove what people are thinking.

[b]The ATHF Agenda?[/b]

Let’s start out with an interesting, “what if” scenario to contemplate what might be behind some of the ATHF motivation: What if we still didn’t have a new Federation? How would the USOC view an organization staging the Miami Tournament and how would that impact NGB selection? Clearly it would have given instant credibility to an ATHA resume which was long on handball experience, but pretty thin on business related management. Arguably, (and of course we’ll never know) it would have tipped the scales to the USOC selecting the ATHA as the NGB. Surely, the ATHA crowd has contemplated this timing at least at the subconscious level.

The reality is, though, that the Utah bid was selected and they’ve already become the NGB for USA Team Handball. Or as Cristian Zaharia, mentioned 6 times in the answers to the questions http://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?extend.668 I sent him, they have become the “probationary NGB” for USA Team Handball. I guess there could be a number of reasons to fixate on the word, probationary, but one of those reasons might be to emphasize that USA Team Handball’s position isn’t permanent and could be taken away. And, if it was taken away by the USOC for poor execution, could NGB status then be bestowed on another organization…..? Perhaps an organization with proven Handball management know-how as evidenced by a flawlessly executed Miami Tournament?

Further fueling speculation on possible motivation are some of the answers to written questions the ATHF provided to Team Handball News shortly after it was established http://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.645 http://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?extend.647.. While the ATHF is set up as a for-profit Federation, many of the goals it sets for itself are towards developing the sport. While sports development is a worthy cause, it’s generally not a profitable undertaking. Additionally, it appears that the ATHF wants to go forward with these development plans with no coordination with the not-for-profit entity trying to accomplish the same end result. If you’re truly seeking to develop the sport, logic dictates that you would seek common ground with another organization with similar long term goals.

[b]The USA Team Handball Agenda?[/b]

The same “what if” scenario also applies when assessing USA Team Handball motivation. Perhaps USA Team Handball is also concerned with their probationary status and the slow start they’ve had since being established last May. Could they see the ATHF as a threat to their long term viability? Possibly, but my sense is that they probably already feel somewhat safe with the working relationships that they have established with the USOC. It would probably take multiple missteps at this juncture to have their NGB status stripped.

What then could be their motivation to insist on sanctioning and dissolution of the ATHF?

The stated reason that the ATHF muddies the water while they are trying to establish partnerships and sponsorships has some validity, but I would argue that potential partners and sponsors are smart enough to know the difference. Additionally, it doesn’t explain the negative attitude that USA Team Handball had with the tournament from the first inkling of its existence. I saw this first hand at the summit meeting in St Louis last year when comments that I made that the new Federation should embrace the tournament were not seen in a very positive light.

Furthermore, the new Federation saw to it that one of their first acts was to have the newly minted competition rulebook http://usateamhandball.org.ismmedia.com/ISM3/std-content/repos/Top/News/USATH%20Rule%20Book%202008-2009.pdf specifically address international tournaments in its own section. This section, Article VII, spelled out the need for sanctioning, numerous fees and gate percentage requirements. As a long time observer of Handball in the USA, I thought that the whole section was unwarranted and out of place. Why 5 years ago, no one would have even contemplated such a tournament even happening. The thought that we would actually try and set up barriers to make it less likely to happen was absurd.

As there was a comment period for review, I submitted the following comment concerning Article VII last September:
“DELETE THIS SECTION
Rationale: I find this entire section troubling as it appears to be primarily directed at the Miami French Coupe de la Ligue tournament. Adding this section appears to be petty and symptomatic of the “not invented here” syndrome that has plagued Team Handball in the past. Quite frankly, USA Team Handball should be embracing the Miami tournament instead of creating new rules to try and undermine it. Besides my personal opinion of what seems to be underlying this section, I don’t think it fits into the basic construct of a “competition rulebook.” Not sure where it belongs, but it should be codified somewhere else.”

Needless to say this is one comment that was not accepted during the review process.

As I don’t find a whole lot or rational reasons for USA Team Handball’s negative attitude towards the Miami Tournament my gut feeling is that it is primarily a case of the “not invented here” syndrome http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_Invented_Here in action. For the simple reason that the Miami Tournament wasn’t their baby an overtly and somewhat irrational negative posture has been exhibited.

[b]Playing Nice[/b]

So my basic premise here is that neither side in this conflict comes clean due to their underlying agendas. USA Team Handball appears to be against the tournament for the simple reason it wasn’t their idea and then writes a specific section in a new rule book to legislate against it. The Miami Tournament organizers ignore the sanctioning requirements and then create a new Federation to thumb their nose at USA Team Handball. USA Team Handball then seeks to go above the Miami Tourney organizers with mediation by the IHF and threats of further consequences.

As often is the case in a confrontation, each side has upped the ante as this has played out. What is frustrating to me as a somewhat informed observer is that this confrontation is truly pointless. Why is it pointless? Sadly, in life there are situations in which only one side can win. You win because you beat the other guy. This conflict is pointless because it doesn’t have to be that way. It really doesn’t take a genius to come up with a compromise which is a win-win for both sides. Case in point, this earlier blog post which highlighted one framework that was win-win. http://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.613 Surely, there are other constructs as well.

So why wasn’t a compromise reached? I suspect, and there’s really no way I can prove this, that either one or both sides are simply not playing nice in the sandbox. Steve Pastorino chose the “on the record” comment of being treated with contempt to characterize his discussion with the ATHF on this topic. Cristian Zaharia was pretty clear that they didn’t think they needed USA Team Handball permission to do anything. (If your position is 180 out from what the other side wants it’s a little harder to have a dialogue) My guess is that there wasn’t much conversation, if any, and this simple lack of conversation is exacerbating the problem. Maybe somebody like the IHF or the French Federation, even if their actual jurisdiction role is questionable, can get both sides talking to each other and then maybe cooler heads will prevail.

But, if cooler heads won’t prevail it’s important to remember that some battles aren’t worth fighting

Coming up
[b]Part 3: Some Battles aren’t Worth Fighting[/b]

The tournament has already kicked off with the opening match between Croatia and South Korea, so, I’m a little bit late on this preview. Here are the answers to 10 burning questions:

1) Will Australia win a match? Not likely. Without Olympic backcourt veteran Darryl MacCormack Australia will really struggle this tournament. Their best chances will likely be against Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

2) Will any Cubans miss their flight back to Havana? Very likely. The possibility of defection is very high based on other recent International tournaments and quite frankly, I’m amazed that they are even making this trip.

3) How will the officials fare in the charged atmosphere? With mixed results. Certain matches in 2007 were a disaster in the minds of a lot of observers. Expect more complaints again, but there’s bound to be an improvement.

4) Will the Croatian crowd boo/whistle IHF President Moustafa? To be determined. I’m not sure how well the press is covering the IHF scandals of recent weeks. And perhaps the IHF President will wisely keep a low profile.

5) Will any non-European teams advance to the Main Round? Yes. Egypt will squeak through in Group D. Everybody else will be relegated to the little kid’s table (i.e., the President’s Cup)

6) How will the other former Yugoslavian teams fare? Macedonia and Serbia will both fail to make the Main Round. It will also be interesting to see what the atmosphere in the arenas will be like when Serbia plays.

7) Is Germany’s success in 2007 now a distant memory? Yes, and based on Spain’s recent shellacking in a friendly it could be a long tournament for the Germans. It’s also highly unlikely that they will benefit from friendly officiating in Croatia this time around.

8 ) How will Spain fare under their new coach? Spain’s performance in some Euro 2010 qualification matches left a lot to be desired as they had an unimpressive win vs. lowly Cyprus and suffered a loss to Ukraine. Their recent performance in friendly matches seems to indicate that they’ve righted the ship. I still doubt they have the firepower to knock off France or Croatia to make the Semifinals out of Group 1. (Miguel Garcia has a different view and you can read his predictions in the extended post.)

9) How much will France miss Bertrand Gille at Circle Runner? Not so much on offense, where Cedric Sorhaindo will emerge as a force along the 6 meter line. On defense, however, he will be definitely missed. I think France has enough weapons to make up for his departure though.

10) Will Croatia thrive at home or succumb to the added pressure? Yes, to both. Croatia will ride the wave of enthusiasm their fans will provide all the way to the final. Along the way there, they will only lose to France in the Main Round of competition. In the Semis they will then knock off Denmark before they fall to France again before a full house in Zagreb.

(Editor’s Note: As you might have guessed this was written before Croatia’s squeaker victory over South Korea.)

My entire predictions (as well as Bogdan Pasat’s and Miguel Garcia’s)are in the extended post.

[b]John Ryan's Predictions[/b]

Group A
1) France
2) Hungary
3) Romania
———-
4) Slovakia
5) Argentina
6) Australia

Group B
1) Spain
2) Croatia
3) Sweden
——-
4) South Korea
5) Cuba
6) Kuwait

Group C
1) Russia
2) Poland
3) Germany
—————
4) Tunisia
5) Macedonia
6) Algeria

Group D
1) Denmark
2) Norway
3) Egypt
————-
4) Serbia
5) Brazil
6) Saudi Arabia

Main Group 1
1) France
2) Croatia
————
3) Spain
4) Hungary
5) Sweden
6) Romania

Main Group 2
1) Denmark
2) Russia
—————
3) Poland
4) Norway
5) Egypt
6) Germany

3rd Place Denmark over Russia
1st Place France over Croatia

[b]Miguel Garcia's Predictions[/b]

Group A
1. France
2. Hungary
3. Slovakia
4. Romania
5. Argentina
6. Australia

Group B
1. Croatia
2. Spain
3. Sweden
4. South Korea
5. Cuba
6. Kuwait

Group C
1. Poland
2. Russia
3. Germany
4. Tunisia
5. Macedonia
6. Algeria

Group D
1. Denmark
2. Norway
3. Egypt
4. Serbia
5. Brazil
6. Saudi Arabia

Group I
1. Croatia
2. Spain
3. France
4. Sweden
5. Hungary
6. Slovakia

Group II
1. Denmark
2. Poland
3. Russia
4. Germany
5. Norway
6. Egypt

Semifinals:
CROATIA – Poland
Denmark – SPAIN

Bronze: DENMARK
Silver: SPAIN
Gold: CROATIA

Croatia has been preparing this World Championship for the last couple of years, they managed to brought superstar Ivano Balic home to meet most of his teammates in RK Zagreb and head coach Lino Cervar, and I believe the atmosphere in Zagreb will be terrific for their opponents and for the referees. You will surprise that I picked Spain as a runner up, but they have the best coach in handball history, Valero Rivera, in the bench now, and a very talented and hungry generation and they are very optimistic after the 28-17 victory over Germany last weekend. I could have picked Denmark as runner up as well, since that hypotetical Denmark-Spain semifinal would be totally tight, impossible to decide who would win. Denmark still keeps the same team for the last 5 years, they have the strongest defense and one of the most perfect fastbreak game. And for the 4th place I have picked Poland, pretty much because they have a quite accessible bracket, since the Germany they will face is not the Great World Champion Germany from 2 years ago, Russia has been going downhill nonstop in the last championships and they are a mystery without Maximov. From the other side of the bracket, I think France will be missing Bertrand Gille loss too much in their matches against Spain and Croatia, and Sweden is not still ready to come back to the medals fight, especially in this side of the bracket.

[b]Bogdan Pasat's Picks[/b]

Group A:
FRA
ARG
ROM
SLK
HUN
AUS

Group B:
CRO
COR
SPA
SWE
KUW
CUB

Group C:
RUS
GER
POL
TUN
MAC
ALG

Group D:
DEN
SRB
EGY
BRA
NOR
SAR

Group I:
FRA – CRO – SPA – COR – ARG – ROM

Group II:
DEN – GER – RUS – SRB – POL – EGY

3rd Place: GER
2nd Place: CRO
1st Place: FRA

Denmark is my “sleeper team”