This year’s World Championships had its fair share of surprises from the upstart nations outside of Europe. Here’s some analysis and numbers to back up just how each of the continents performed and where they stand relative to Europe and each other.

[b]Europe[/b]

Europe’s record vs. the Rest of the World: 31-1-10
Average Match Final Score: 31.5 – 25.0
Average Match Goal Differential: +6.5

Europe is still the top continent for sure, but the Women are not near as dominating as their male counterparts who were 28-1-1. https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.266 And, if you compare Europe’s record vs. the world for the last 3 championships a definite trend downward is occurring.

2003: 34-0-5 (87.1 win percentage)
2005: 32-0-7 (82.1 win percentage)
2007: 31-1-10 (73.8 win percentage)

In 2003, only South Korean could manage a victory against the Europeans. In 2005, Brazil joined South Korea in passing through to the main round and a raw, but athletically gifted Angola beat Slovenia and kept their other games close against the European powers. In 2007, the trend continued with 4 teams (South Korea, Angola, Brazil and Tunisia) beating European sides. Even more revealing was that the average margin of victory was only 6.5 goals. And if you were to throw out the two teams that were most overmatched, Australia and Paraguay, the number drops even further. Several teams managed to scare the Europeans and those easy games in preliminary play where teams traditionally rested are becoming fewer and fewer. All this being said, though, a 73.8 win percentage is still pretty high and the 12 European sides all finished 16th place or better.

[b]Africa[/b]

Record vs. Europe: 6-0-9
Average Match Final Score: 28.3 – 30.7
Average Match Goal Differential: -2.4

Record vs. Rest of the World (non-Europe): 4-0-1
Average Match Final Score: 32.6 – 28.4
Average Match Goal Differential: 4.2

Thanks largely to Angola’s 6-4 overall record and 5-3 record against Europe, Africa had the second best overall continental performance. And with the exception of their 27-40 loss against the eventual champions Russia, Angola was competitive in all of its matches. Even more compelling is the upward trajectory of Angolan performance from the past 3 tournaments

2003: 1-4
2005: 2-3
2007: 6-4

In 2003, Angola likely left the tournament with the realization that the European teams were better, but not that much better. In 2005 they narrowed the gap further, beating a European team (Slovenia), but they just couldn’t close the deal in their other matches. In 2007, however, they came battle tested and ready to do the little things that make the difference between winning and losing tight matches at the highest level. For those who sometime question the point of having weaker nations play mismatches against the European powers, one should consider just what Angola has accomplished. Only 5 years ago they were struggling to rebuild their nation after a 27 year civil war. According to the UN (from this New York Times article in 2003 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?es=9C02EEDF173EF933A05754C0A9659C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1), “80 percent of people have no access to basic medical care. More than two-thirds have no running water. A whole generation of children has never opened a schoolbook. Life expectancy is less than 40 years. Three in ten children will die before reaching their fifth birthday.”

Now five years later they are the 7th best team in the World. But it wasn’t just the Angolans that proved their worth. Congo was competitive in several games and Tunisia knocked off Austria. And in match-ups against non European teams, Africa had a 4-0-1 record with the only loss being Angola’s loss to South Korea. Time will tell whether this is the high water mark for Africa Handball or whether its just the start of a trend to bigger and better things.

[b]Asia[/b]

Record vs. Europe: 3-0-12
Average Match Final Score: 26.4 – 30.4
Average Match Goal Differential: -4

Record vs. Rest of the World (non-Europe) 7-0-4
Average Match Final Score: 31.1 -22.7
Average Match Goal Differential: +8.4

As usual, South Korea carried the flag for Asia with 3 victories over European teams and a 6th place overall finish. China and Japan kept their games vs. the Europeans respectable while Kazakhstan suffered double digit losses to Croatia and France. When it came to matches against non-European sides, Asia had a mixed record. Three of their 7 victories came at Paraguay’s expense and in 3 head to head match ups between the 2nd tier nations of Africa and Asia (Congo-Kazakhstan; Congo-Japan; Tunisia-China) they lost all 3. So Asia can look upon 2007 as some progress, but they also have to recognize that Africa is now the number 2 continent.

[b]Pan America[/b]

Record vs. Europe: 1-1-8
Average Match Final Score: 20.9 – 33.4
Average Match Goal Differential: -12.5

Record vs. Rest of the World (non- Europe): 4-0-4
Average Match Final Score: 21.4 – 25.6
Average Match Goal Differential: -4.2

In 2005 Brazil was the surprise team of the tournament with wins over Austria, Poland and France as they advanced to the Main Round for the first time and finished 8th overall. This time they were a mild disappointment as their Preliminary Round loss to Macedonia sent them to the President’s Cup and an eventual 14th place finish. The biggest consolation they can take is their Preliminary Round draw against the eventual Russian champions which showed that they can still play with the big dogs. Next time around they are sure to remember the Macedonia loss and the fact that one slip up can cost you.

Outside of Brazil, Pan-American performance was dismal, with almost all of Argentina, Dominican Republic and Paraguay defeats being lopsided double digit losses. In fact, the only non-Brazilian victories coming at the expense of Australia.

[b]Oceania[/b]

Record vs. Europe: 0-0-2
Average Match Final Score: 10 – 35
Average Match Goal Differential: -25

Record vs. Rest of the World (Non-Europe): 0-0-4
Average Match Final Score: 11.5 – 27.3
Average Match Goal Differential: -15.8

It might not seem plausible to find any silver lining in the Aussies 0-0-6 record and 24th place, but in comparison to their 2005 performance they’ve made quantifiable progress. In St Petersburg, Australia were also winless in five outings, but their opponents averaged 47.2 goals and were beaten by an average of 36.4 goals. This time around, team Australia held their opponents to a more modest 29.8 goals/game and their average margin of defeat was 18.8 goals. Big numbers for sure, but no one was able to paste a 57-7 drubbing on them like Hungary did two years ago. And for a memorable 25 minutes they held their own against Macedonia in arguably the biggest “you gotta be kidding me” moment of the tournament. Continued improvement could be a challenge, but if several players find their way to competitive European leagues it’s conceivable. Who knows? Maybe they could knock off an overconfident Angolan team four years from now.

Match Scores grouped by Continents are in the Extended Post

[b]Africa vs. Europe[/b]
Angola 33, Austria 22
Angola 26, Norway 32
Angola 29, France 27
Angola 34, Croatia 28
Angola 33, Macedonia 25
Angola 27, Russia 40
Angola 33, Germany 36
Angola 37, Hungary 36
Congo 20, Hungary 33
Congo 24, Spain 29
Congo 28, Ukraine 31
Tunisia 30, Austria 23
Tunisia 23, Poland 29
Tunisia 21, Romania 39
Tunisia 26, Ukraine 31

[b]Africa vs. Rest of World [/b]
Angola 41, Dominican Republic 20
Angola 33, South Korea 41
Congo 27, Kazakhstan 26
Congo 32, Japan 28
Tunisia 30, China 27

[b]Asia vs. Europe[/b]
China 20, Poland 27
China 29, Romania 31
Japan 31, Hungary 35
Japan 29, Spain 36
Kazakhstan 20, Austria 25
Kazakhstan 25, Croatia 35
Kazakhstan 20, France 31
South Korea 25, France 26
South Korea 31, Hungary 26
South Korea 24, Norway 35
South Korea 37, Poland 33
South Korea 27, Romania 31
South Korea 26, Spain 28
South Korea 26, Germany 32
South Korea 26, Ukraine 25

[b]Asia vs. Rest of World[/b]
China 27, Tunisia 30
China 35, Dominican Republic 16
China 23, Paraguay 14
Japan 28, Congo 32
Japan 31, Argentina 20
Japan 36, Paraguay 8
Kazakhstan 26, Argentina 22
Kazakhstan 19, Brazil 36
Kazakhstan 26, Congo 27
South Korea 41, Angola 33
South Korea 50, Paraguay 12

[b]Pan-America vs. Europe[/b]
Brazil 38, Austria 19
Dominican Republic 19, Austria 32
Argentina 18, Croatia 35
Argentina 12, France 37
Paraguay 12, Germany 45
Brazil 22, Macedonia 26
Dominican Republic 19, Norway 42
Brazil 31, Russia 31
Brazil 21, Ukraine 24
Paraguay 17, Ukraine 43

[b]Pan-America vs. Rest of World[/b]
Dominican Republic 20, Angola 41
Argentina 31, Australia 9
Brazil 36, Australia 9
Dominican Republic 26, Australia 14
Paraguay 16, Australia 14
Dominican Republic 16, China 35
Paraguay 14, China 23
Argentina 20, Japan 31
Paraguay 8, Japan 36
Argentina 22, Kazakhstan 26
Brazil 36, Kazakhstan 19
Paraguay 12, South Korea 50

[b]Oceania vs. Europe[/b]
Australia 13, Macedonia 30
Australia 7, Russia 40

[b]Oceania vs. Rest of World[/b]
Australia 9, Argentina 31
Australia 9, Brazil 36
Australia 14, Dominican Republic 26
Australia 14, Paraguay 16

From Handball-World.com:

The Asian Qualification Tournaments for the Olympic Games for both the women and the mens teams will be replayed. This was announced after todays meeting of the IHF-council in Paris. Both tournaments will be replayed by the end of January 2008. Additionally, the IHF announce further states that, “The organisation and technical details of the tournaments will be under the full responsibility of the IHF and further information will be released within the next 72 hours”.

“We have come to a positive conclusion for the sport of Handball, which follows on from the huge success of the Womens World Championship in Paris", said IHF-President Hassan Moustafa who is under heavy pressure in regards to this issue. As previously reported at handball-world.com, the officiating at the Qualification tournaments in Almaty, Kazakhstan (women) and Toyota, Japan (men) had several grave irregularities. EHF-President Tor Lian took an unequivocal stand on the issue and he is quoted in the Danish news-portal tv2.dk, as saying: “About the worst that could have happened was if a majority would have voted against a rematch. In that case we would have been forced to reconsider our position and I believe that our colleagues from the other continents would have done the same".

[b]Commentary: [/b] This is simply an unprecedented decision, not only for Handball, but as far as I know, for any sport. I’ve seen the video and there was no question in my mind that the Men’s Tournament result was tainted. But, I am surprised at the bold decision to replay the entire tournaments and the implicit acknowledgment that goes with it- namely that the tournaments were fixed. The short statement on the IHF has no mention of reprimands or penalties, but surely they will follow.

I’m also a little surprised that the IHF decided for a replay of the Women’s Tournament. In the Korean news film there is some footage from that tournament and some complaints from the players. As well, it is also pointed out that Japan hadn’t beaten Korea in 31 years. In that tournament, Japan beat South Korea, South Korea beat Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan beat Japan. Those 3 teams also beat winless Qatar, so they were level on points, but Kazakhstan won on head to head goal differential amongst the 3 teams. While a big upset, it didn’t seem out of the realm of possibility that Japan couldn’t surprise Korea on a neutral court in Central Asia. As well, it seemed possible to me that Kazakhstan could lose only by 1 on their home floor. And I don’t know much about the inner politics of the Asian Handball Federation, but there’s no natural cultural alliance between the former Soviet republic and the Arab gulf states. So, I’m guessing there’s more evidence than meets the eye and that evidenced warranted the replay. But, I would also guess that some Kazakhs are not very happy right now.

IHF Notice: http://www.ihf.info/front_content.php?idcat=218&idart=998
Asian Women’s Olympic Qualification Final Results: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.377
Korean News Video: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-908556008345758262

With the Main Round now over, the dust has settled a little on the Olympic Qualifications Tournaments

[b]#2 and #3 for Europe:[/b] As Russia, France, Germany and Hungary are all guaranteed to place somewhere between 1st to 7th, Sweden is locked into the 2nd place Europe spot. The 3rd place slot will boil down to whether Croatia wins the 9th place game (and secures the 7th place WC slot). If Croatia wins, Poland will take the 3rd place Europe slot. If Croatia loses, Croatia will take the 3rd place Europe slot.

[b]#2 and #3 for Asia:[/b] Thanks to South Korea squeaking into the quarterfinals, Japan is now bumped up to the #2 Asia slot and will play in Tournament 2. Qatar moves up to #3.

[b]#1, #2 and #3 for Africa: [/b] The African Championships will be played next month, and based on their performance at the World Championships its hard to imagine that the host, Angola, won’t take the title and the automatic spot in the Olympics. Tunisia and Congo will be the favorites for 2nd and 3rd.

[b]Ranking the Continents: [/b] With Brazil’s failure to qualify for the Main Round the PATHF finished 4th among the continents. This leaves the favored Europeans along with Angola representing Africa and South Korea representing Asia. The Angolans and South Koreans could win it all, but for now I’ll pencil in Europe as the #1 Continent. This means that the 2nd best continent will be determined by which nation places higher, South Korea or Angola. Should South Korea place higher then Angola, lightly regarded Qatar would be placed in tournament 1. If Angola places higher, Congo or Tunisia are the two African nations that will likely finish 2nd or 3rd in the African Championship.

[b]9th Place Equals 7th Place and that Game Will be Pivotal for Spain, Croatia and Poland: [/b] Norway has already qualified, so they won’t count in the standings, and Angola will be very heavily favored to win the African Championships, so they, in all likelihood, won’t count either. This means that the 9th place game between Spain and Croatia should secure the 7th place WC spot. For Spain this is their only chance to qualify, so this is a must win situation. For Croatia, they’ve already probably qualified for Tournament 2 as the #3 European team, but they would probably prefer the competition in Tournament 1. Both Tournaments 1 and 2 will be hosted by a top team (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary, Romania or South Korea), but 2nd place at Tournament 1 will be easier and likely come down to beating Sweden on a neutral floor. Whereas Tournament 2 will require beating another team from that same top team grouping of Russia, France, Germany, Hungary, Romania or South Korea. And watching all of this will be Poland, who can only qualify with a Croatian victory.

[b]Looking Ahead: The Battle for Bronze?:[/b] As previously mentioned, this game might be worth losing, but it’s still impossible to predict. As Norway, Angola, and possibly Russia won’t count in the standings it’s hard to say which placing game will actually be for 3rd or 4th place

[b]Current Possibilities (Assumes Angola wins African Championships)[/b]

[b]Tournament 1: [/b]
2nd Place WC (Host) (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary, Romania or South Korea)
7th Place WC Croatia or Spain
2nd Place Europe: [b]Sweden[/b]
2nd Place PATHF: [b]Cuba[/b]

[b]Tournament 2: [/b]
3rd Place WC (Host) (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary, Romania or South Korea)
6th Place WC (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary, Romania or South Korea)
2nd Place Africa: TBD in January (likely either Congo or Tunisia)
3rd Place from the Continental Championship for the best Continent at WC (Croatia or Poland)

[b]Tournament 3: [/b]
4th Place WC (Host) (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary, Romania or South Korea)
5th Place WC (Russia, France, Germany, Hungary, Romania or South Korea)
2nd Place Asia: [b]Japan[/b]
3rd Place from the Continental Championship for the 2nd best Continent at WC (likely either Congo, Tunisia or Qatar)

As you can see, there are still a lot of variables. After each day’s games it will become a little clearer. We’ll continue to update the narrowing possibilities at this link: https://teamhandballnews.com/page18.html

Going into the final day of Main Group play, here are the possibilities for the final standing of each Group:

[b]Main Group I: [/b] Norway is locked in as the #1 Seed and France is locked in as the #4 Seed, so they will play a meaningless warm up game on Tuesday. Russia and Angola will play head to head for 2nd place. In the event of a draw Russia will take 2nd on goal differential. Croatia and Macedonia will play for 5th place with the winner having the opportunity to play for 9th place. And as Norway has already qualified for the Olympics as the European Champion and Angola, is likely to do the same for Africa, the 9th place winner could very well be for the 7th and last spot in an Olympic Qualification tournament.

1) Norway
2) Russia or Angola
3) Russia or Angola
4) France
5) Croatia or Macedonia
6) Croatia or Macedonia

[b]Main Group 2:[/b] The picture in Main Group II is a little less clear. Germany currently leads the group with 7 points and Romania and Hungary are right behind with 6 points each. The winner of the Germany – Romania game will likely take 1st place. The loser will take 2nd or 3rd place depending on how well Hungary does against South Korea. Hungary will likely get 2nd place if they beat South Korea and 3rd place if they lose. And theoretically, Hungary can still get 1st place if Germany and Romania draw, but they would have to pick up 10 goals in goal differential. Spain controls their own destiny and with a win or draw against Poland they are through to the quarterfinals. South Korea needs to beat Poland and hope for a Spanish loss to make the quarterfinals.

1) Germany, Romania or Hungary
2) Germany, Romania or Hungary
3) Germany, Romania or Hungary
4) Spain or South Korea
5) Spain or South Korea
6) Poland

[b]Potential Quarter Final Pairings[/b]

[b]Upper Bracket[/b]
I-1st Place vs. II-4th Place (Norway) vs. (Spain or South Korea)
II-2nd Place vs. I-3rd Place (Germany, Romania or Hungary) vs. (Russia or Angola)

[b]Lower Bracket[/b]
II-1st Place vs. I-4th Place (Germany, Romania or Hungary) vs. France
I-2nd place vs. II-3rd place (Russia or Angola) vs. (Germany, Romania or Hungary)