It’s decision day for the 2020 Women’s European Handball Championships as the final day of Main Round Group play concludes with 6 matches. When the dust settles we’ll know who will play who in the semifinals on Friday. Here are the standings, scenarios, video links, odds and some preview articles that were written before these matches were played.
Tuesday, 15 December
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Main Round Group I (Herning, Denmark)
Main Round Group I Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
16:00 Montenegro vs Spain (-1.5) (Live on ehfTV)
(Commentary: Paul Bray)
18:15 France (-5.5) vs Sweden (Live on ehfTV)
(Commentary: Paul Bray)
20:30 Denmark vs Russia (-1.5) (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch (Commentary: Paul Bray)
France will play Sweden first and then Denmark will take on Russia. Here are the 9 different possible outcomes for the combination of results for those 2 matches:
Scenarios to Make the Semifinals
Here is what each nation needs to do to advance to the semifinals:
Denmark: Denmark has to beat Russia in order to qualify for the semifinals.
France: If France wins or draws vs Sweden they will qualify for the semifinals. If France loses to Sweden they can still qualify if Russia beats Denmark or the Russia-Denmark match is a draw. They can even still qualify if Russia loses to Denmark, but it is a mathematical improbability. (See note below)
Russia: If Russia wins or draws vs Denmark they will qualify for the semifinals. If Russia loses to Denmark they will still likely qualify if Sweden beats France. (See note below)
What About 1st Place and Avoiding Norway?
Norway has looked very strong and has already won Main Round Group II. This means finishing first in the Group and avoiding Norway in the semifinals is highly desirable.
There are multiple scenarios, but Russia is in the strongest position as they are likely to win any tiebreakers with France. France is in the next strongest position as they win any tiebreakers with Denmark. Finally, Denmark does have one possibility for finishing first: Demark beating Russia and Sweden beating France
A side note on a mathematical improbability*
Russia and France are level on points and played to a 28-28 draw earlier in the competition. This means that should they finish level on points the first tiebreaker will be goal differential in all matches. Russia is currently +14 and France is +5. This means that if both France/Russia lose or both France/Russia win, France would have to gain 10 goals on Russia in the matches played. While this is possible given the teams playing it seems unlikely that much ground could be made up. Additionally, Russia playing second would know exactly what margin they would need to maintain a goal differential advantage.
Main Round Group II (Kolding, Denmark)
Main Round Group II Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
16:00 Netherlands (-4.5) vs Romania (Live on ehfTV)
(Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
18:15 Croatia vs Germany (-1.5) (Live on ehfTV)
(Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
20:30 Hungary vs Norway (-7.5) (Live on ehfTV)
(Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
Norway is undefeated and has already beaten Germany and Croatia so no matter the outcomes of matches played Tuesday they will finish first. This leaves Croatia and Germany fighting for 2nd. The Netherlands can no longer qualify, but their match vs the Romania may have an impact on which team gets second. Here are the 9 different possible outcomes for the combination of results for those 2 matches:
Scenarios to Make the Semifinals
Here is what each nation needs to do to advance to the semifinals:
Norway: Norway is guaranteed to finish first. Their match vs Hungary will have no bearing on the final standings.
Croatia: If Croatia wins or draws vs Germany they will qualify for the semifinals. If the Netherlands beats Romania they can also still qualify for the semifinals with a 1 goal loss to Germany. (See note below)
Germany: If Germany wins vs Croatia they will qualify for the semifinals. They will also have to win by 2 goals in the Netherlands beats Romania. (See note below)
Why the Netherlands has been eliminated, but their match with Romania could still impact qualification
Should the Netherlands beat Romania and Germany beat Croatia all three teams will be level on 6 points. The next tiebreaker is head to head goal differential n the 3 matches played. The table below depicts the current goal differential for each team and how that goal differential will change based on Germany’s margin of victory in the their match vs Croatia
As you can see the Netherlands has already played their two matches and is stuck at -1 goal differential. And, it is a mathematical impossibility for a -1 goal differential to ever head to the top of the table. If the Netherland had managed a 2 or larger goal win they would have had ever increasing chances. As it is, however, Croatia goes through if Germany wins by 1. If Germany wins by two or more they will go through to the semifinals.