2021 IHF Men’s Handball World Championships Daily Preview (25 Jan 2021): Streaming Links, Odds and Predictions)

Today’s Matches on ESPN+ in the U.S

All times are Egypt Local (CET is 1 hr behind; US ET is 7 hrs behind)
Odds courtesy of Bet MGM

If you want to watch the matches that aren’t available on ESPN+ check this article for how to watch geo-blocked matches on YouTube: Link

Main Round Group I

Standings Prior to Matches on 25 January
  • 1630 Uruguay vs Brazil (-15.5) (YouTube)
  • 1900 Hungary vs Spain (-1.5) (YouTube)
  • 2130 Poland vs Germany (-3.5)  (YouTube)

Group I’s QF qualifiers have already been determined and the match between Hungary and Spain will simply determine who will be 1st and 2nd. If Spain wins they’ll take 1st. If Hungary wins or the match is a draw Hungary will take first. In terms of either nation perhaps “picking” who they will play in the quarterfinals the winner will get Norway and the loser will get France. Both top teams, but France (for the moment) looks like they would be a tougher opponent.

Main Round Group II

Standings Prior to Matches on 25 January
  • 1630 Japan (-2.5) vs Bahrain (YouTube)
  • 1900 Qatar (-1.5) vs Argentina (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
  • 2130 Denmark vs Croatia (-1.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary

Japan and Bahrain will play for 5th place and then the real interesting matches start. Argentina, Qatar and Croatia all have chances of taking 2nd place in the Group and joining Denmark in the Quarterfinals.

See below for the different scenarios that will play out.

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.

What Each Team Needs to do to Qualify for the Quarterfinals

With the exception of one scenario (explained below) here’s what each team needs to do on Monday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.

  • Denmark: Will finish 1st in all scenarios
  • Argentina: Win or draw vs Qatar
  • Qatar: Win vs Argentina and have Denmark beat Croatia
  • Croatia: Win vs Denmark and have Qatar beat Argentina

Group 2 Scenario Details: Link

The one scenario that’s a little complicated is the tied point standings that will result if Qatar beats Argentina and then Denmark and Croatia draw (depicted in yellow above). This will result in a 3 way tie between Argentina, Qatar and Croatia all level on 6 points.

The 3 results from their head to head matches are

  • Argentina beat Croatia 23-19
  • Croatia beat Qatar 26-24
  • Qatar beat Argentina (TBD)

Each team will have 2 points, so the next tie breaker is head to head Goad Differential (GD). Croatia is locked in at -2, while Argentina starts at +4 and Qatar starts at -2. The chart below depicts how that GD will change based on Qatar’s margin of victory vs Argentina.

As depicted Croatia has no chance of finishing 1st in this scenario. If Qatar wins by 1 or 2 goals, Argentina will finish 1st in this 3 way tie. If Qatar wins by 4 or more, Qatar will finish first.

If Qatar wins by 3 goals exactly both Qatar and Argentina will have a GD of +1 and the next tiebreaker is Goals For (GF) in head to matches. Should this occur Qatar will advance because they are already ahead on GF 24 to 23 and having won the match whatever is scored they will have increased that lead by 3 goals.

President’s Cup Group I

  • 1630 DR Congo vs Tunisia <Cancelled>
  • 1900 Tunisia (-6.5) vs Angola (YouTube)

Due to Cape Verde’s withdrawal this President’s Cup group will have a forfeit the rest of the way.

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.

Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.

John’s Pick(s):

  • Bankroll: $733 (Yesterday Start) + $165 (Yesterday’s Win) = $898 (Current Bankroll) Bankroll)
  • Yesterday’s Result:
    • France to win (+165 or 2.65) vs Portugal; Bet $100 to win $165: RESULT: Win $165 (France won 32-23)
  • Today’s Pick:
    • Argentina vs Qatar; 1st half total (over 24.5) (+125 or 2.25); Bet $100 to win $125
      • I look for Frankis and Capote to have an easy time scoring against Argentina’s defense and at the same time I see Diego Simonet finding a way to score and keep pace with Qatar’s output. Not sure what will unfold in terms of outcome, but I like for there to me more goals than usual for and Argentine match.

Sharp Action’s Pick(s):

  • Bankroll: Bankroll: $1,251 (Yesterday Start) – $180 (Yesterday’s Loss) = $1,071 (Current Bankroll)
  • Yesterday’s Results:
    • Pick #1: Egypt vs Slovenia; Egypt to win (-137 or 1.73); Bet $200 to win $146; RESULT: Lose $200; Egypt and Slovenia played to a 25-25 draw… The last 15 seconds where Egypt missed a point blank shot and Slovenia then scored didn’t change who qualified for the QF, but it was $346 swing to Sharp Action’s bankroll.
    • Pick #2: Hugo DESCAT over 2.5 goals (+120 or 2.20); Bet $100 to win $120; RESULT: Win $120; Descat led France in scoring with 8 goals
    • Pick #2: Ludovic FABREGAS over 2.5 goals (-155 or 1.65); Bet $100 to win $65; RESULT: Lose $100; Fabregas had 1 goal in limited action
  • Today’s Picks
    • Pick #1: Denmark (+116 or 2.16) vs Croatia; Bet $200 to win $232
      • These odds are off… WAY OFF. Croatia’s offense was pathetic vs Argentina, scoring only 19 goals. Are they going to have new ideas on how they will they score vs the Danish defense and Niklas Landin? After the drama with Head Coach Lino Cervar resigning live on TV, how can Croatia possibly be considered the favorite over world champions, Denmark? Even if Denmark is already qualified they’re not the type of team to play at half speed. Hansen didn’t even get 1 minute of play last match, so he’ll probably play some vs Croatia. And even, if it’s Denmark B team full of talented youngsters, I’m still going with them at these odds which suggest an implied probability of 46%. Denmark is just better than that.
    • Pick #2: Argentina vs Qatar; Youssef Ben Ali over 2.5 goals (+105 or 2.05); Bet $100 to win $105
      • .Ben Ali had a very bad last game scoring only one goal, while Frankis and Capote scored 8 and 9 goals respectively. Argentina will have to go hard on those two long distance threats or they’ll just be unstoppable. This is where spaces are given to Pivots. Argentina will have to pick their poison: Do they let Frankis/Capote light up their keeper, or do they choose to go out on them? I say the latter and that will free up space for Ben Ali.
    • Pick #3: Spain (-2.5) vs Hungary; (-148 or 1.68); Bet $100 to win $59.69
      • Hungary apparently prefers to play France in the Quarterfinals so they play without Mikler, Lekai, Banihdo and Rodriguez. Spain should have few problems with the weaker Hungarian roster.

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