Group III Scenarios: Portugal Qualifies with a Win; Norway Needs French Help

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Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group III, France (except for one very unlikely scenario) has all but qualified, Portugal is in with a win and Norway needs help from France.

Group II Standings Heading into the Final Match Day

The final match day will see Switzerland and Algeria play first, followed by Norway vs Iceland and closing out with France vs Portugal. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from the two matches that matter:

Main Round Group III Scenarios

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.

With the exception of one scenario (explained below) here’s what each team needs to do on Monday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.

  • France: Win, draw and or lose by 6 goals or less vs Portugal
  • Portugal: Win vs France or if Norway loses to Iceland, a draw will suffice
  • Norway: Has multiple scenarios, but all of them involve finishing better or tied with Portugal on points. In most cases this simply means France beating Portugal. Yes, even if Norway loses to Iceland, France can still bail them out by beating Portugal

One scenario, which is also quite likely is a 3 way tie with France, Norway and Portugal all level on 8 points (depicted in yellow above)..

The 3 results from their head to head matches are

  • France beat Norway 28-24
  • Norway beat Portugal 29-28
  • Portugal beat France (TBD)

Each team will have 2 points, so the next tie breaker is head to head Goad Differential (GD). Norway is locked in at -4, while France starts at +4 and Portugal starts at -1. The chart below depicts how that GD will change based on Portugal’s margin of victory vs France.

As depicted Portugal is guaranteed to finish either 1st or 2nd and qualify for the Quarterfinals. If they win by 1 or 2 goals, France will finish 1st and Portugal will finish 2nd. If Portugal wins by by 3 or more goals they would win the group. Norway is starting in a really big hole and would need Portugal to win by 8 goals in order to pass France in GD. Should Portugal win by 7 goals exactly, France and Norway will be tied on GD and the next tiebreaker is Goals For (GF) in head to matches. Should this occur France will need to have scored more than 25 goals to pass Norway’s GF of 53. Should France score 25 goals exactly the next tiebreaker is GD in all games played and Norway would have the advantage there.