Group II Scenarios: Denmark Guaranteed 1st; Argentina and Qatar play for 2nd; Croatia with a Possible Back Door Entry

Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group II, Denmark is guaranteed, but 3 teams (Argentina, Croatia and Qatar) each have chances to take 2nd place

Group II Standings Heading into the Final Match Day

The final match day will see Japan and Bahrain play for 5th place, followed by Argentina vs Qatar and closing out with Denmark vs Croatia. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from those two matches:

Main Round Group II Scenarios

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.

What Each Team Needs to do to Qualify for the Quarterfinals

With the exception of one scenario (explained below) here’s what each team needs to do on Monday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.

  • Denmark: Will finish 1st in all scenarios
  • Argentina: Win or draw vs Qatar
  • Qatar: Win vs Argentina and have Denmark beat Croatia
  • Croatia: Win vs Denmark and have Qatar beat Argentina

The one scenario that’s a little complicated is the tied point standings that will result if Qatar beats Argentina and then Denmark and Croatia draw (depicted in yellow above). This will result in a 3 way tie between Argentina, Qatar and Croatia all level on 6 points.

The 3 results from their head to head matches are

  • Argentina beat Croatia 23-19
  • Croatia beat Qatar 26-24
  • Qatar beat Argentina (TBD)

Each team will have 2 points, so the next tie breaker is head to head Goad Differential (GD). Croatia is locked in at -2, while Argentina starts at +4 and Qatar starts at -2. The chart below depicts how that GD will change based on Qatar’s margin of victory vs Argentina.

As depicted Croatia has no chance of finishing 1st in this scenario. If Qatar wins by 1 or 2 goals, Argentina will finish 1st in this 3 way tie. If Qatar wins by 4 or more, Qatar will finish first.

If Qatar wins by 3 goals exactly both Qatar and Argentina will have a GD of +1 and the next tiebreaker is Goals For (GF) in head to matches. Should this occur Qatar will advance because they are already ahead on GF 24 to 23 and having won the match whatever is scored they will have increased that lead by 3 goals.

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