Group IV Scenarios: 4 Teams Battling for 2 QF Slots on the Last Match Day

Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group IV, four teams are bunched at the top. Here’s the current standings:

Group IV Standings Heading into the Final Match Day

The final match day will see N Macedonia and Belarus play for 5th place, followed by Slovenia vs Egypt play first and closing out with Sweden vs Russia. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from those two matches:

Main Round Group IV Scenarios

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.

What Each Team Needs to do to Qualify for the Quarterfinals

Sometimes what looks like it will be a jumbled mess turns out to be pretty simple. That’s certainly the case with Group IV and here’s what each team needs to do on Sunday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.

  • Egypt: Win or draw vs Slovenia
  • Slovenia: Win vs Egypt
  • Sweden: Win or draw vs Russia
  • Russia: Win vs Sweden

It really is that simple. There are, however, several two team ties that will decide which team finishes first or second in the group. I’ve already assembled the standings based on tiebreakers and here are the relevant earlier head to head results:

  • Sweden beat Egypt 24-23
  • Russia beat Slovenia 31-25
  • Egypt beat Russia 28-23
  • *Sweden-Slovenia was a 28-28 Draw

Since Sweden and Slovenia played to a draw if they should end up level on points the next tiebreaker is Goal Differential. Under that identified scenario Sweden would have played Russia to a draw and therefore would be locked in with a GD of +13 while Slovenia starts the day at +8. Therefore, if Slovenia beats Egypt by 1-4 goals Sweden would finish in 1st place. Should Slovenia beat Egypt by 6 or more goals, Slovenia would finish in 1st place. And, finally, should Slovenia beat Egypt by 5 goals then the next tiebreaker would be goals scored in all matches.