Shuffling the deck: Rethinking the seeding of Olympic Qualification Tournaments

Christer Ahl’s preview of the upcoming IHF Congress he noted that Japan and South Korea were proposing changes to Olympic qualification to add more slots for non-European nations.  As anyone who’s watched Olympic handball  knows with the exception of the South Korean women these tournaments have been very heavily weighted towards European nations.  And yes, that reflects actual relative strengths of the continents, but the optics of a mini European tournament on the Olympic stage are problematic.

I haven’t seen the exact proposals, but reportedly they would give Africa, Asia and Pan America 2 guaranteed slots each thus limiting Europe to a maximum of 6 of the 12 slots for the Olympics.  Christer concluded that this was going a bit too far and suggested that instead one of the 3 Olympic qualification tournaments be set aside for the non European nations.

This got me wondering just what exactly this might mean for the Olympic Qualification tournaments in terms of competition so I took a look at the 2012 tournaments and reshuffled them using Christer’s suggested compromise.

2012 Men’s Olympic Qualification (actual tournaments and results)

IHF Qualification Tournament #1
2nd at 2011 WC (Tournament Host): Spain
7th at 2011 WC: Poland
Europe (2nd place at 2012 EC): Serbia
Africa (2nd place at 2012 African Championships): Algeria

Results
1) Spain (3-0-0) 6 Points
2) Serbia (1-1-1) 3 Points +5 Goal Differential
3) Poland (1-1-1) 3 Points -10 Goal differential
4) Algeria (0-0-3) 0 Points

IHF Qualification Tournament #2
3rd at 2011 WC (Tournament Host): Sweden
6th at 2011 WC: Hungary
Pan America (2nd at 2011 PANAM Games):  Brazil
Europe (3rd at 2012 European Championships): Macedonia

Results
1) Sweden (3-0-0) 6 Points
2) Hungary (2-0-1) 4 Points
3) Brazil (1-0-2) 2 Points
4) Macedonia (0-0-3) 0 Points

IHF Qualification Tournament #3
4th at 2011 WC (Tournament Host): Croatia
5th at 2011 WC: Iceland
Asia (2nd at Asian Olympic Qualification Tournament): Japan
Pan America (3rd at 2011 PANAM Games): Chile

Results
1) Croatia (3-0-0) 6 Points
2) Iceland (2-0-1) 4 Points
3) Japan (1-0-2) 2 Points
4) Chile (0-0-3) 0 Points

2012 Men (with proposed alternative)

IHF Qualification Tournament #1
2nd at 2011 WC (Tournament Host): Spain
4th at 2011 WC: Croatia
6th at 2011 WC: Hungary
Europe (2nd place at 2012 EC): Serbia

IHF Qualification Tournament #2
3rd at 2011 WC (Tournament Host): Sweden
5th at 2011 WC: Iceland
7th at 2011 WC: Poland
Europe (3rd at 2012 European Championships): Macedonia

IHF Qualification Tournament #3
Pan America (2nd at 2011 PANAM Games) (Tournament Host): Brazil
Africa (2nd place at 2012 African Championships): Algeria
Asia (2nd at Asian Olympic Qualification Tournament): Japan
Pan America (3rd at 2011 PANAM Games): Chile

2012 Women’s Olympic Qualification (actual tournaments and results)

IHF Qualification Tournament #1
France (2nd at 2011 WC) Host
Montenegro (7th at 2011 WC)
Romania (Europe #2)
Japan (Asia #2)

Results
1) Montenegro (3-0-0) 6 Points
2) France (2-0-1) 4 Points
3) Romania (1-0-2) 2 Points
4) Japan (0-0-3) 0 Points

IHF Qualification Tournament #2
Spain (3rd at 2011 WC) Host
Croatia (6th at 2011 WC)
Argentina (Pan America #2)
Netherlands (Europe #3)

Results
1) Spain (2-0-1) 4 Points (+3 GD in head to head games vs Croatia and Netherlands)
2) Croatia (2-0-1) 4 Points (+0 GD in head to head games vs Spain and Netherlands)
3) Netherlands (2-0-1) 4 Points (-3 GD in head to head games vs Spain and Croatia)
4) Argentina (0-0-3) 0 Points

IHF Qualification Tournament #3
Denmark (4th at 2011 WC) Host
Russia (5th at 2011 WC)
Tunisia (Africa #2)
Dominican Republic (Pan America #3)

Results
1) Russia (3-0-0) 6 Points
2) Denmark (2-0-1) 4 Points
3) Tunisia (1-0-2) 2 Points
4) Dominican Republic (0-0-3) 0 Points

2012 Women (with proposed alternative)

IHF Qualification Tournament #1
2nd at 2011 WC (Tournament Host): France
4th at 2011 WC: Denmark
6th at 2011 WC: Croatia
Europe (2nd place at 2012 EC): Romania

IHF Qualification Tournament #2
3rd at 2011 WC (Tournament Host): Spain
5th at 2011 WC: Russia
7th at 2011 WC: Montenegro
Europe (3rd at 2012 European Championships): Netherlands

IHF Qualification Tournament #3
Pan America (2nd at 2011 PANAM Games) (Tournament Host): Argentina
Africa (2nd place at 2012 African Championships): Tunisia
Asia (2nd at Asian Olympic Qualification Tournament): Japan
Pan America (3rd at 2011 PANAM Games): Dominican Republic

Analysis

If one compares the actual tournaments that took place and the hypothetical tournaments that would have taken place a few trends can be discerned.  Here are the major impacts as I see it:

1) Every nation would have a shot at qualifying:  In theory, this was already the case, but in reality the prospect of any of the non-European teams knocking off 2 European teams at a tournament staged in Europe was pretty remote.  Intead those non-European teams would have legitimate chances with a tournament featuring evenly matched 2nd tier nations.  I suspect that Brazil and Algeria would have qualified in the Men’s tournament, but I wouldn’t have counted out Japan or Chile.  With the Women’s tournament I’m guessing that Tunisia and Japan would have qualified, but Argentina as the theoretical host would have been in the mix as would have been the athletic Dominicans.  And it goes without saying that any of the European sides could have envisioned themselves placing 2nd in the European tournaments.

2) Every nation would have a a very real possibility of not qualifying.   Conversely, those European nations would also face a very real prospect of slipping up and not qualifying.  Again, this was already the case, but pretty unlikely.  Most egregious are the 3rd qualification tournaments with 2 European and 2 non-European teams.  Those tournaments have been essentially glorified exhibitions that unfairly reward the 4th and 5th place WC qualifiers with all but free tickets to the Olympics.  With 4 European nations participating in the alternative setup even the host nations would have to be very wary of a slip up against 3 opponents each capable of beating them.

3) Tournaments worth watching:   A corollary of 1 and 2 above, from a fan perspective is that 3 tournaments with relatively predictable results would be replaced with 3 wide open tournaments.  Instead of perhaps 1 or 2 interesting matches among the 3 tournaments almost every match in the alternative setup will be competitive.  Heck, I would even bet that some of those tournaments would see a final day with every side still having a chance at qualification.  Talk about TV worth watching!

4) New nations qualifying for the Olympics.  Aside from the better qualification tournaments, opening up 2 spots provides an Olympic opportunity for nations like Japan, Algeria, Chile and the Dominican Republic.  Participating in an Olympics can provide a tremendous boost to the development of the sport in countries where the sport is less popular.  While, I’ve seen first hand how this boost wasn’t  sustained as much as I would have liked it to have been in the U.S. after the 84 and 96 Olympics it still was significant.  (For instance this website surely wouldn’t even exist.)  And while the U.S. example might not be a good one, take a look at what has happened in countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Brazil, Argentina and South Korea.  Creating more opportunities for more nations means more potential for making the sport truly global.

5) Two European nations would miss out.  Of course, this is the corollary to #4.  Is it fair to “punish” a better European side, perhaps a side that could beat the non-European side by 10 goals?  Should a professional player who’s devoted his/her life to the sport sit at home while an amateur player who’s played for a few years walks into an Olympic Stadium during the opening ceremonies?  It’s hard not to be sympathetic to the plight of those would be athletes.

6) The quality of the Olympic Tournament would decline.  Obviously, if you take out 2 of the top 9 nations of the world and replace them with 2nd tier nations the overall quality of the tournament will decline.  The question then becomes one of how serious of a decline would it be?   Realistically, at this point in time I don’t think any of the 2nd tier nations that would be capable of reaching the semifinals.  Whereas, the 8th and 9th European representative would have a legitimate outside chance of doing so.  So, we would be replacing a really long shot with just a long shot.   And there would likely be a couple more lopsided scores, but I think these 2nd tier nations are capable of playing competitively against the top nations maybe even getting an upset along the way.   In other words, losses of 5-10 goals instead of 20 goal shellackings.

Overall, I would argue that the benefits of  the proposed tweaking of the qualification system to allow more non-European nations outweigh the negative consequences.  As Christer suggested, balance is what’s desired.  Adding 2 non European nations seems about right at this point in time and it would help the growth of the game.

Rasmus Lauge-Schmidt is a huge fan of American Football.  How about finding and creating some American footballers who are fans of Team Handball?

The ehfTV “Rewind” show is highlight show of Champions League action with a few interviews thrown in for good measure. Last week, as an American I did a double and triple take when I saw the “Inside the Game” profile with Kiel’s Danish center back Rasmus Lauge-Schmidt. The cause of the double take? The video shows Lauge-Schmidt practicing a bit of American Football in full pads.

It turns out that the 22 year old, Lauge-Schmidt is a huge fan of the National Football League (NFL), the professional football league in the USA. So much so that every Sunday night he watches from 7:00 PM until the early hours of the morning. (As a former resident of Europe, I can attest to doing the same thing; That time change certainly alters your NFL viewing clock.) I haven’t confirmed with Lauge-Schmidt, but I’m pretty sure that his fandom has been restricted to viewing and he’s never actually played the game. I suspect that the EHF set up a mock practice with the local club in Kiel to provide some good optics for the interview. After all, it can be a little boring to just watch someone talking. And the interview did get me thinking about the current status of American Football in Europe and some lessons that might be applicable to Team Handball in the U.S.

American Football popularity abroad

A lot of people in the U.S. are probably under the impression that the game isn’t played much outside of the U.S and Canada and while that’s certainly true to an extent, the sport is played in most European nations. I was first made aware of this many years ago when I stumbled upon a full contact scrimmage of the London Ravens in Hyde Park. Long time LA handball player, Mika Maunala, amused me with stories of playing QB in Helsinki and I had a German work colleague in Paris that played, by coincidence for the club in his hometown, Kiel. (Yes, ironically I was the bigger handball fan in my office.) Sure enough Lauge-Schmidt photo op was with the local club there, the Kiel Baltic Hurricanes.

It’s hard to fully gauge how popular a sport is from a few personal anecdotes, but clearly American Football is gaining a foothold in Europe. NFL broadcasts are readily available in most countries even if it’s usually with a cable outlet. In London the NFL now plays two regular season matches to sell out crowds of 80,000 plus at Wembley Stadium.  There’s quite a list of nations with leagues even if it’s uncertain as to the level of amateurism/professionalism, but at least some of the teams appear to draw decent crowds. The Hurricanes for instance drew 7,000 fans for a semifinal match recently. While that doesn’t even begin to approach a typical crowd at an NFL game the U.S. right now can only dream of a crowd approaching that for a handball match in this country.

Such a foothold wasn’t obtained through osmosis. Sure, it’s a great game to watch and generally when newcomers are exposed to the sport they become fans. Lauge-Schmidt is but one example. Virtually every expat I’ve met who’s emigrated to the U.S. has become a fan of the sport. (count my colleague, Christer Ahl in that category.)  There’s lots of sports that fall into that category and just like American Football generally newcomers to Team Handball like what they see when exposed. And that’s where the NFL is the difference maker as they do an absolutely masterful job of packaging and promoting the sport. Perhaps this can best be summed up by what I heard French basketball player Tony Parker say once in describing American sports production:  “They make every weekend of games seem like the World Cup.”  The pageantry, aesthetics and TV production involved in packaging the sport are simply unmatched. And the promotion is strategically planned both home and abroad. For years the NFL has cultivated a following. Even going so far to create an NFL developmental league there for several years. While that league eventually folded it surely played a key role in the sports development overseas.

Proof that foreigners can learn to play an alien game at the highest level

If there ever was greater proof staring the handball world in the face that it’s possible for a game totally alien to a country’s sporting culture to take root there is no better example than American Football in Europe. Sure, the sport isn’t as popular as many other sports, but think of all the crazy obstacles it’s overcome to reach the level of popularity it has. First off, there are probably only a handful of games more expensive to play. Unlike the typical school team in the U.S. with equipment handout on the first day of practice every player has to buy his own personal set of pads. Then think of the complexities of the game that have to be learned. The idiosyncrasies of the rules and the penalties might seem second place if you’ve watched it all your life, but coming in cold it’s pretty complex. Finally, think of all the unique skills like blocking and tackling that have to be taught and learned. Not to mention the concept of intricate play calling where every single player has to memorize responsibilities and formations for every single play. With all those obstacles to overcome it’s a wonder that the sport is played anywhere outside the U.S. and Canada.

Yet, amazingly the level of play has risen to the point where there’s now a trickle of foreigners getting recruited by American colleges and then eventually making it into the ranks of the NFL. Notably, there are now two established German players, Bjoern Werner and Sebastian Vollmer. Probably not household names back home, but with salaries of $2M and $4M respectively they make more on a yearly basis than anyone playing handball in the German Bundesliga. If Germans can learn to play American Football to the highest level it’s not so difficult to think that Americans can do the same with Team Handball. And while it has indeed happened in recent times, Americans (who learned the game in the U.S) haven’t ascended to anywhere near the highest levels in Europe. For instance, arguably America’s current best player, Gary Hines, plays for German 3rd Division side, HC Bad Neustadt.

Probably, for Americans to make the leap into the upper pro ranks in Europe, it will take a greater number of athletes picking up the game at younger ages. And then those athletes heading over to Europe at younger ages with enough time to further develop as players so that top clubs are interested in signing them.

Or, alternatively, some absolutely top quality athletes could be enticed to give Team Handball a try after their career with their first sport winds downs. In Part 2, I’ll take a closer look at this possibility with a focus on the American Football to Team Handball pipeline.