In recent time there has been much debate about the international competition calendar and the excessive pressure on the top players.  The risk for injuries and other health problems has been mentioned as a serious concern.  It seems that, based on reports from many of the participating countries in the upcoming Men’s World Championship, there are already an unusual number of key injuries to reckon with.  However, most coaches seem to take this in strides, noting that this is beyond their control and that back-up solutions always must exist.  But it may become a factor in the tight competition for positions in the main round and in the semi-finals.

On the day before my departure for Sweden, I will take the risk of offering some predictions, on the basis of reports from teams, media analyses, and some of my own speculation.  Starting with the group of the host country, which is generally viewed as the “easiest” one, I am not yet convinced that this will be another occasion where the home team excels.  Many Swedish experts and fans also seem to be skeptical.  The same doubts seem to affect the Polish team.  So apart from the game between the two, it seems that Sweden and/or Poland might be in for a surprise in one of the other group games.  The most obvious candidate for creating such a surprise might be Korea, who tend to be rather unpredictable on the men’s side.  I also would not be surprised if Argentina were to be able to upset one of their European foes.

The other group on the same half of the draw includes two of the strong favorites, Denmark and Croatia.  Personally, I would be not be surprised if these two teams do well both in the initial group and then also make their way through to the semi-finals.   There should then be an interesting battle for the remaining main round slot between Serbia and Romania.  The traditional powerhouse from Romania is trying to fight their way back to the top after many years in the doldrums.  It is likely to be a close contest but I would not mind seeing the Romanians be successful here.  There should be excitement also among the spectators in this group in Malmo and Lund, with a huge influx of Danish fans and a large pool of Balkan immigrants living in this part of Sweden.  I also hope that Australia get good crowd support for their traditionally tireless efforts against stronger opponents.

The “group of death”, as the now so popular concept is, clearly must be the label deserved by the group seeing the top Europeans from Germany, France and Spain taking on Egypt and Tunisia.  The French have been plagued by injuries, but I am convinced that their team is deep enough to do well, and Spain seems to have been able to prepare nicely without any distractions.  Then one wonders if all the concerns expressed by the German coach Heiner Brand are part of efforts to keep a low profile or indications of genuine problems.  If it is the latter, then the Germans may be the ones who have to worry about a surprise caused by one of the North African teams.  In any case, I am prepared to believe, which would not be a very brave or original prediction, that both France and Spain are in a good position to advance to the semi-finals.

In the group where the Nordic powers of Iceland and Norway seem set to dominate, I am this time more ready to put my money on the Norwegians.  Somehow I believe that they might be the “stealth” team having some success in the fight for a semi-final spot.  Hungary seems to be in a weaker position this time, in part due to injuries, and it is hard to know if they will be able to conquer their Austrian neighbors.  But I am not so convinced that Austria will be able to repeat their success from EURO 2010, now that they play away from home.  So perhaps the shock in this group might be that Brazil will be the team grabbing the third place!?

Anyway, as I pull out my boots and heavy winter coat, I must say that I really do look forward to this event.  It will be the first time in over 30 years that I will have the opportunity to experience a handball World Championship as a tourist and spectator, without the usual 18-20 hour workday and constant worries about the many aspects of the organization of the event.  I will now be able to sit back and relax, enjoying the performances of teams and individual players.  But I must admit that I will remain considerably interested in the performances of the referees and I do hope that this relatively young group of referees, many of whom are in a men’s World Championship for the first time, will live up to the expectations and contribute to a first-rate event with good PR for handball.

Once upon a time, more precisely on August 16, 1987, there was a fabulous women’s handball match played between USA and Canada. The match was the final in the PanAmerican Games in Indianapolis, and the result was 22-20 in favor of the home team. Until this day, it was probably the best women’s handball ever played between two PanAmerican teams. It is another story that, in terms of drama, it may have been overshadowed by the men’s final played a couple of hours later between USA and Cuba. Here the USA victory came in overtime, 34-32 after a fantastic battle. It was a special evening.

Yes, it is easy to become nostalgic when thinking back to such memorable events. And, somewhat unfairly, it is unavoidable to see last week’s USA-Canada encounters in the light of what happened 23 years ago. One begins to think about the trajectory for U.S. (and Canadian) handball that seemed realistic at that point, and one starts wondering about why we are where we are today. But I do not want to ruin the excitement from last week by looking back too much. Given the circumstances in which handball tries to make headway in the two countries today, there are several reasons to ‘view the glass as half full rather than half empty’.

I say this not just in the sense that each country got a team qualified for the 2011 PanAmerican Games, but because one could find some nuggets of hope for the future. The U.S women’s team may have had some luck in the sense that the Canadian opponents fielded many players who were brand new on the team and lacking in experience. Moreover, the Canadians did not even enjoy their traditional advantage in terms of physical strength and stature. But the U.S. team had to draw on several teenagers to combine with a number of older but not particularly experienced players. What made the difference in the end was some inspired goalkeeping in the second match (especially Natascha King) and some sudden ‘bomb throwing’ by Karoline Borg.

What do these two players have in common? Well, they are affiliated with well-known clubs in Denmark and Norway. So the idea of gaining experience abroad shows signs of promise, but the choice of setting has to be carefully thought out. And it is not enough to have just a small nucleus of well-trained players with serious match experience. Moreover, match experience is fine, but what really tends to do a team in is the lack of playing together as a team. Nothing else makes up for knowing each other on the court, having clear and well-established roles, and having familiar routines to fall back on in tight situations. This now has to be the key issue in preparing the team for the PanAmerican Games in October 2011. For instance, an abundance of tough practice matches next summer is a must.

Quite possibly the U.S. federation might have preferred to see the men’s team qualify, simply because the men’s team in some ways might be closer to be ready to do battle with the opponents in the PanAmerican Games. While the competition might be tighter on the men’s side, that are several other teams that depend even more on raw talent and physical strength. So the U.S. men’s team just might have the collective qualities and the individual stand-outs that could take a team to the semi-finals. There are not many other teams with a skilled trio such as Gary Hines, Adam El Zogby and Martin Clemons Axelsson. The crux would be to find reliable goalkeeping and good choices for complementary roles; and then again the team cohesiveness through opportunities to play together. One can only hope that the resources are available to allow this team to try to qualify through the ‘second chance’ tournament.

My colleague John has written several articles lately about the precarious state of the U.S. federation in financial terms and the resulting need for tough and controversial choices. The support from the USOC has been cut back etc., so the players have had to pitch in substantially. Believe it or not, the Canadians may still be somewhat envious, as they have no such support at all the next two years and will receive a meager $25.000 per year in government support the following three years. There is no equivalent of the U.S. Handball Foundation, and the national teams are totally self-funded, i.e., the players pay to play.

So perhaps it is against this background of shared sacrifices and a mutual respect that it was so refreshing to see the excellent spirit of sportsmanship last week. When the women have the slot decided on ‘more away goals’ after a tie in the aggregate score, and the final men’s game goes to overtime after identical wins for the home teams, then there are obviously serious battles on the court. But the fouls were typically caused by a flailing arm or a desperate lunge, not by a cynical tackle or nasty hit. And there were no tendencies to theatrics, protests or provocations. Congratulations!