Author Archives: John Ryan

#1 Ranked Army Holds off Air Force 31-29 to Stay Unbeaten in College Play

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Air Force’s Nate Luther looks to score on West Point GK, Spencer Knudsen.

This past weekend both Air Force and Army participated in the Cal Cup tournament and the two sides met in a college vs college match to open the tournament Friday night.

The two long time rivals had previously met this season at the Air Force Academy with Army dominating that contest for a 40-28 win. Starting out it appeared that this match was heading to a similar scoreline as Army led 10-4 midway through the first half. Air Force then changed tactics on defense with a man to man defense at half court that transitioned to a more traditional defense as Army moved the ball forward. This tactic disrupted Army’s offensive flow, created some turn overs and hurried shots and allowed Air Force to cut the lead to 12-11 before Army closed out the half with 3 goals for a 15-11 lead.

The two team traded goals for much of the second half and Air Force cut the lead to 1 goal several times, but never could quite tie the match. Towards the end of the match Army went on a bit of a run and extended the lead to 30-24 with 3 minutes left. Air Force again applied the pressure and was able to cut into the lead for the final 31-29 victory.

Army’s Luke Windish led all scorers with 9 goals. Kendrick Thomas added 8, while Air Force scoring was led by Quinton Riddle and Anthony Sanders-Oseguera with 7 goals each.

Both teams later lost to Alberta and Cal Heat 2 in pool play and failed to make the semifnals. Both teams did, however, pick up wins vs Chicago Inter in consolation play on Sunday. As far as the overall tournament results go, San Francisco Cal Heat won the Men’s Title and Alberta won the Women’s Title.

Army Team Captain Kendrick Thomas: Whenever Army and Air Force get together, it’s always a hard fought match. Thankfully Army pulled through with the win. We as a team were thankful to be a part of this tournament. We had some great competition out here. It was definitely a learning experience. We are excited for the competition coming up in the future.

Air Force Team Captain Austin Faulkner: The Cal Cup was a huge step in the right direction as we had all our starters for the first time and were missing only two 1st team players.

Despite having a 1-3 tourney record when we look at the quality of the matches and the scores we feel great moving forward. In the game against West Point turnovers hurt us early and often, but we settled in and lost 31-29 which is great compared to how the game at home went. We held Alberta tight and they are a very talented club with some Canadian national team players. The Cal Heat II game was a tough 19-20 loss, but their goalies put forth an amazing effort. The final day we came out and put together a win against a Chicago Inter team that has been competitive in recent tournament and we feel good about our next competition, the Valley of the Sun Tournament in Arizona.

Finally, it was great to see our coach, Mike Cavanaugh, honored for his efforts to develop team handball in California.

Scoring

Army
Luke Windish 9
Kendrick Thomas 8
Michael Turner 5
Will Considine 4
Blake Havern 2
Cedric Davis 1
Robert Purdy 1

Air Force
Anthony Sanders-Oseguera 7
Quinton Riddle 7
Richard Vaughn 6
Emari Hill 4
Nathan Luther 2
Tevin Miller 1
Mark Simpson 1
Benjamin Pagel 1

LINKS

Match Video: Link
Match Photos: Link
Full Tournament Results: Link

2020 Men’s European Handball Championship (Gold Medal Match)

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Spain and Croatia duel for the title.

The European Championships conclude today with the Gold Medal final.

Here are the video links, odds and some predictions for those matches.

How to Watch Spoiler Free: Link

Sunday, 26 January
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>

The match can be seen live on Free TV in the the U.S. on beIN Sports XTRA. (How to watch) Check it out. I like ehfTV, but I personally get a better viewing experience with beIN Sports XTRA. The picture quality is better and it’s more reliable than the web stream.

The final will also be rebroadcast in prime time on the beIN Sports Network (regular TV) at 8:00 PM (US ET).

EHF Preview of today’s match: Link

16:30 Spain (-1) vs Croatia (For 1st Place/Gold)
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.

Odds are from the 10 Bet Sportsbook <Open an account>

John’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 994.92 Euros
– Yesterday’s Result: Germany (-1.5) vs Portugal (1.84, -119); Bet 100 Euros to win 84.03. ; Win 84.03 Euros as Germany won 29-27.
– Today’s Pick: Alternate point spread; Spain (-2.5) vs Croatia (2.3, +130); Bet 100 Euros to win 130. I’ve got nothing to add to Samo’s detailed analysis. He’s got me totally convinced. Heck, I’m tempted to take Spain (-4.5) at (3.45, +245), but I’ll play it relatively safe.

Samo’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1795.25 Euros
– Yesterday’s Results: Did not bet
– Today’s Pick: Money Line bet; Spain to win (1.64/-155); Bet 100 Euros to win 64.51

Today, Spain will try to defend the title they won in at the 2018 EURO in Croatia. And, for multiple reasons I think they will indeed win back to back titles.

First of all, Vargas – Corrales GK duo is much better than Šego – Ašanin. I know both Šego and Ašanin have made some big saves in the final minutes of important matches during this tournament, but Vargas is consistent throughout. He is one of the best goalkeepers in the world and even if he is having a slightly worse day, there is always Corrales, another world class GK. There is just no debate: Spain have better goalkeepers.

Croatia’s strongest asset is their back line, but will Cindrić be ready? He has problems with his knee and he wasn’t able to play in the semifinal the way we all expect him to. But ok, they still have Karačič and most importantly, Duvnjak. What a player! He set everything up in the final minutes and overtime. And, not just one overtime, but two overtimes against Norway.

And yes, this 80 minute match will impact their play today. Croatia doesn’t have a great bench, and players like Mamič/Šarac/Hrstič are not (yet) players who can make a big impact in a EURO final. And we all saw how tired were Karačič and Duvnjak at the end of last couple of matches. Sure, there is also Stepančič, their ONLY right back. (I still don’t understand how Červar didn’t bring another RB.) And, because Stepančič is playing 50+ minutes per match in both attack and defense his shooting has not been the best. Only 52% and he is also taking a lot of shots: 54 attempts in 8 matches.

Marič, Croatia’s pivot, had a great match vs Norway, but Spain plays a different style of defense and I don’t think he will get very many useful balls today. As far as wingers go, Spain is much better at this positionl. Their wingers are playing for Barcelona and both of Croatia’s wingers are playing for Zagreb: Enough said.

Finally, let’s talk about each side’s defense. Croatia’s 5-1 defense has been fantastic. Duvnjak should probably win the best defensive player award as well as MVP. He has been amazing. But, will the 5-1 work so well against Spain? Spain is using their wings a lot, and if they can past Duvnjak in the middle they can stretch this Croatian defense out. And, I think they have players to do so. Dujshebaev is playing fantastic, he is in great form and working great with Entrerrios. Plus, there are also Sarmiento, Fernandez and Maqueda, all with solid tournaments so far and this allows Ribera to rotate and keeping playing at a high tempo in attack. Croatia will really need to perform on another level in defense to stop all the possible threats Spain has to offer.

The best part of this Spain team is (still) their defense. Combined, Morros and Guardiola are 71 years old, but they are still one of the best defensive pairs in the world. Croatia are the most dangerous in the middle, but this is also where Spain’s defense is the strongest. Any and all turnovers are punished as we saw in semifinal against Slovenia. And, rest assured with Croatia playing their 9th match in 17 days, there will be mistakes. Croatia will try to slow down the game to limit Spain’s fast break opportunities much the same way they did against Norway.

Overall, Croatia has an amazing back line, but you need more than that to win against Spain. They will have 10k+ fans behind them and players will feel like they are playing at home, but Spain won their last EURO with fewer fans backing them and they are just too good to not do it again.

2020 Men’s European Handball Championship (Saturday, 25 Jan)

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Norway and Slovenia face off today for a direct ticket qualification to the 2021 World Championships.

The European Championships has a couple of consolation matches today that can be seen on ehfTV.

Here are the video links, odds and some predictions for those matches.

How to Watch Spoiler Free: Link

Saturday, 25 January
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>

EHF Preview of today’s matches: Link

16:00 Germany (-1.5) vs Portugal (For 5th Place)
Match Video (Live): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

18:30 Norway (-2.5) vs Slovenia (For 3rd Place/Bronze)
Match Video (Live): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

The 5th place match between Germany and Portugal doesn’t have any ramification for qualification, but as both teams are somewhat rested they may well put on a decent show. Meanwhile, Norway and Slovenia, both undoubtedly exhausted after yesterday’s matches will play for bronze and a direct ticket to the 2021 World Championships. So, they actually have something to play for as the loser will have to play a 2 leg qualification match for World Championship qualification in June.

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.

Odds are from the 10 Bet Sportsbook <Open an account>

John’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 910.89 Euros
– Yesterday’s Result:   Norway’s Sander Sagosen, Under 6.5 goals; (2.1, +210); Bet 100 Euros to win 110; Lost 100 Euros as Sagosen poured in 10 goals.
– Today’s Pick: Germany (-1.5) vs Portugal (1.84, +119); Bet 100 Euros to win 84.03. Germany plays solid defense and they will stifle Portugal’s creative offense. They simply are the better team here and it’s impossible now for Portugal to sneak up on anybody anymore. Germany will be ready.

Samo’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1795.25 Euros
– Yesterday’s Results: Norway’s Goran Johannessen Total Goals – Over 3.5@ (2.00 /+100); Bet 100 Euros to win 100; Win 100 Euros as Johannessen scored 4 vs Croatia
– Today’s Pick: No picks today.

The Race For Olympic Qualification Tournament Slots (UPDATE 24 Jan)

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The IHF recently posted an article highlighting the status of Olympic Qualification and specifically, the Olympic Qualification Tournaments that will take place 17-19 April.

It’s kind of complicated as to how the dominoes fall, so I’ve created a chart (above) that shows which nations could be placed in each tournament based on how high each nation will place at either the European or African Championships which are both ongoing.

A few notes of explanation.

Hierarchy of Qualification

There are several ways to qualify for the Olympics, but a nation can only qualify once and there is a hierarchy to that qualification.

  1. Host Nation (Japan)
  2. World Champion (Denmark)
  3. Continental Champion
    1. Asia (Bahrain)
    2. Pan America (Argentina)
    3. Africa (Egypt or Tunisia)
    4. Europe (Spain or Croatia)
  4. Olympic Qualification Tourney (6 nations from 3 Tourneys)
    1. Seeded based on WC places 2-7
      • 2nd (Norway)
      • 3rd (France)
      • 4th (Germany)
      • 5th (Sweden)
      • 6th (Croatia)
      • 7th (Spain)
      • 8th – Egypt
      • 9th – Brazil
    2. Seeded based on 2nd or 3rd at Continental Championship

So with this hierarchy, there is a domino effect. As an example if Norway were to win the European Championship they will qualify as a continental champion and they will be removed from the Olympic Qualification Tourney seeding. And, then every nation on the list would move up one spot and slide over to another tournament based on the arrows indicated.

2020 African Championships

Egypt and Tunisia will play in the gold medal match and Angola and Algeria will play for Bronze on Sunday, 26 January.

Africa was the 2nd best continent at the 2019 World Championships so Africa has 2 slots in the Olympic Qualification Tournaments. Egypt was also the 8th place team at the World Championships, so if they lose to Tunisia on Sunday they will secure an OQT slot through that path. If that happens Africa will have 3 nations qualifying for an OQT. Tunisia, will automatically qualify, Egypt will be in Tourney #1 and then Angola and Algeria will have the Africa 2 and Africa 3 slots. However if Egypt wins Tunisia will be Africa 2 and the winner of the Angola-Algeria match will be Africa 3.

2020 European Championships

Thinks are a lot more clear now with the European Championships.

Only 1 Domino: With Croatia being the 6th place team at the last world championships and Spain being 7th there’s only 2 possible outcomes. Either Spain or Croatia will automatically qualify for the Olympics and the loser will be slotted into Tournament #2.

Europe 2 and Europe 3 slots are now set

  • Slovenia will finish either 3rd or 4th and has secured the Europe 2 slot
  • Portugal will finish either 5th or 6th and has secured the Europe 3 slot.

Brazil’s Situation

Brazil will qualify for Tournament #1 if Egypt wins the African Championship

Easy – Peasy Tournament #1

As usual, on paper, Tournament #1 is the place to be as it will only have 1 European nation fighting for 2 slots. France would surely have preferred for Norway to win the title. Now they will face their new nemesis, Portugal and the loser of Spain-Croatia. Nothing against Chile and S. Korea, but they just aren’t at the level of those sides.

I will update this article as more results become known.

2020 Men’s European Handball Championship “Spoiler Free” Links, Match Odds and Predictions (Friday, 24 Jan)

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Can Domagoj Duvnjak and the Croatian defense slow down Sander Sagosen and Norway? Yes, I think they can.

The 2020 Men’s European Handball Championship Semifinals are today. Here are the video links, odds and some predictions for those matches.

How to Watch Spoiler Free: Link

Friday, 24 January
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>

EHF Preview of today’s matches:
– Slovenia vs Spain: Link
– Norway vs Croatia: Link

Both semifinal matches can be seen live on Free TV in the the U.S. on beIN Sports XTRA. (How to watch) Check it out. I like ehfTV, but I personally get a better viewing experience with beIN Sports XTRA. The picture quality is better and it’s more reliable than the web stream.

Both matches will also be rebroadcast in prime time on the beIN Sports Network (regular TV) at 7:00 PM (US ET) and 8:30 PM (US ET)

18:00 Norway (-2) vs Croatia
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

20:30 Spain (-3) vs Slovenia
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.

Odds are from the 10 Bet Sportsbook <Open an account>

John’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1,010.89 Euros
– Wednesday’s Result:   Sweden (-1.5) vs Iceland 1.86/-115; Bet 100 Euros to win 86.95; Result: Win 86.95 Euros as Sweden won 32-25
– Today’s Pick: Norway’s Sander Sagosen, Under 6.5 goals; (2.1, +210); Bet 100 Euros to win 110. Norway has been on a roll and totally dominated Main Round Group II, but Croatia will be a tougher opponent than they’ve faced so far. Croatia is a veteran side and plays great defense. I think this will be a low scoring game and Croatia will keep Sagosen in check.

Samo’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1695.25 Euros
– Wednesday’s Results: Portugal to win vs Hungary; 1.79/-133 Bet 100 Euros to win 75.82 ; Win 75.82 as Portugal won the match 34-26.
– Today’s Pick: Norway’s Goran Johannessen Total Goals – Over 3.5@ (2.00 /+100); Bet 100 Euros to win 100; Johannessen will be very important for Norway today. Without Rod in attack they will need Reinkind in great form, but there is also Johannessen who has great shot and won’t hesitate to shoot as well. I think we will see big game from him today.

The USA Team Handball – Verizon Sponsorship Deal: A Big Opportunity that Could Well be Epic

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The new USA Verizon jersey signed by USA Team Handball CEO, Barry Siff and Verizon CEO, Hans Vestberg

Earlier this week the long awaited USA Team Handball – Verizon Sponsorship deal finally came to fruition.  Long awaited in that it was no secret that USA Team Handball CEO, Barry Siff and Verizon CEO, Hans Vestberg were friends.  And, that Vestberg is a big handball supporter, and the former President of the Swedish Handball Federation and the Swedish Olympic Committee.

As one might expect I was flooded with feedback regarding the deal.  I’ll give the glass half empty / glass half full perspectives and my own two cents.

Glass Half Empty:  Little Money and not Historic

Most of the negative feedback centers around the small dollar figure associated with the deal.  (An official dollar figure was not revealed, but multiple sources have indicated that it is somewhere between $100K – $200K.)  In terms of a total amount this is not historic… not even close.  In fact, the biggest sponsorship signing for USA Team Handball was for $1M with “The Weather Channel” from 1994-1996.  Factoring inflation that sponsorship deal would be worth around $1.7M in 2020 dollars or roughly 10 times the amount of the Verizon deal.  Of course, that deal was directly tied to the Atlanta Olympics, but even recent sponsorship deals related to the residency program at Auburn or with Grundfos in the 2009-10 time frame were of similar value. 

Compared to the amount of sponsorship dollars Verizon pays to the NFL ($500M/year) and the reality that there is no other USA company so conveniently headed by such a stronger backer of handball the reaction of the naysayers is: 

We waited for this?  Is this all you got?  This doesn’t even make a dent into the lack of revenue the organization currently has. A budget so paltry that our national team athletes have to pay for their own travel to represent their country in official competition.

Glass Half Full:  A Real Big Opportunity for More Deals and Better Promotion

While much of the feedback was negative there was also a lot of positive comments about getting such a “Name” sponsor on board.  And, make no mistake, Verizon is a really big name.  As Barry Siff told Sports Business Journal:

“Verizon’s a legitimizer for the sport of team handball.  It’s as simple as that”

Yes, putting Verizon on the front of U.S. jerseys is a really good thing.  And, there’s a solid chance that other businesses might follow suit, thinking “What’s good enough for Verizon, is good enough for us.”

Making me feel even better about the situation is the sales and marketing agency, Innovative Performance Group 360 that has been hired to help secure those new deals.  If one checks out their website you’ll see that they’ve done this before.  In particular, check out the testimonial and some of the work they’ve done for another U.S. Sports National Governing Body (NGB):  Link

Yes, no surprise here as the new USA Team Handball CEO also sits on the USA Triathlon Board.  Still, if one looks at some of their promotion work like this video it’s not hard to envision something similar or even better being done as handball is a tailored made spectator sport.

My Own Thoughts:  A Glass that Could Well be Filled, but How is that Money Going to be Spent?

Overall, I’m more in the glass half full category.  Sure, I would like for the deal to have been for more money, but I also know how hard it is to sell team handball in this country.  Getting companies and/or TV networks to even talk to you can be tough.  We don’t even have a real handball product to market in the U.S. yet. 

Now we’ve got somebody on board.  A company (Verizon) with immense resources.  And, a company (IPG 360) that knows how to sell and market.  Based in Santa Monica too… Where the LA Olympics will be in 8 years.  Plus, our once every four years Olympics TV boost is coming this summer.  Oh, and a new mega 10 year EHF Champions League TV contract with requirements to market in the U.S. also starts this fall.  Could handball broadcasts move to a major U.S. network?   Really, there is a big confluence of events coming that could well be capitalized upon and it seems the wheels may be in motion to actually do it. That’s all good.  It’s really good.  In fact, it could really be legitimately historic.  Epic even.

But… I then hear and read things about how some of that new money might be spent and I get a bit antsy.  There’s going to be an Open National Team Tryout in a few months?  Why that raises so many questions in terms of what is hoped to be accomplished and practicality that I don’t even know where to start. What would we do with great raw talent transfer athletes from say, water polo, if they show up?  Start another residency program?  Ship the newbies to some European club for a 3 year project? 

The Sports Business Journal article talks about a Pro League starting in 2023 with 10 franchises costing from $3-5M.  Hey, that sounds awesome… just not practical.  Who’s going to invest that kind of money? Where are you going to find the players?

Sigh… Such efforts can be done, but they won’t be cheap. They would empty our newly flush bank account very quickly and more importantly, they would drain resources away from the long hard slog that is true grass roots development. Similar choices have been made in the past. Similar choices that have put the sport right where it is now.

But, what do I know?  Maybe, I’m just someone part of the old culture that has kept handball from growing in the U.S. A culture of naysayers that think small when when they should have been thinking audaciously.  Or, maybe… I’m someone who has seen it all before, knows what the challenges are, what has worked, what hasn’t worked and why. In short, someone who really knows what they are talking about. 

Regardless, the next few months should be real interesting.  Real interesting.

2020 Men’s European Handball Championship “Spoiler Free” Links, Match Odds and Predictions (Wednesday, 22 Jan)

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Roland Mikler and Hungary need a win vs Portugal to still have a chance at making the semifinals.

Main Round play at the 2020 Men’s European Handball Championships concluded today. Here are the video links, odds and some predictions for those matches.

How to Watch Spoiler Free: Link

Wednesday, 22 January
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>

EHF Preview of day’s matches: Group I Group II

Main Round Group I (Vienna, Austria)

Current Standings

16:00 Spain (-1) vs Croatia
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)

18:15 Belarus vs Austria (-0.5)
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)

20:30 Germany (-5) vs Czech Republic
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)

The Match of the Day in Group I will be the first match between Spain and Croatia. The winner here will top the Group and will likely avoid a tougher semifinal vs Norway. Belarus and Austria will then play a match to determine 4th place in the Group. At first glance this match appears meaningless, but depending on the results of the other Group and the Semifinals the winner could actually secure a slot to an Olympic Qualification Tournament. The day closes out with a match between Germany and the Czech Republic which is truly just for pride.

Current Standings

All 3 matches in this Group can be seen on Free TV in the the U.S. on beIN Sports XTRA. (How to watch) Check it out. I like ehfTV, but I personally get a better viewing experience with beIN Sports XTRA. The picture quality is better and it’s more reliable than the web stream.

16:00 Hungary vs Portugal (-1)
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

18:15 Norway (-1.5) vs Slovenia
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

20:30 Sweden (-1) vs Iceland
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

All three matches in this Group will impact the standings and which nations will secure a semifinal berth and/or a slot in an Olympic Qualification Tournament. In the first match of the day, Hungary needs a win to keep it’s semifinal chances alive. Portugal has no chance for a semifinal, but they still have good chances for 3rd place and a likely slot in an Olympic Qualification Tournament. The importance of the second match will hinge on what Hungary does in the first game. If Hungary beats Portugal, Slovenia will be in a must win situation to make the semifinals. But, even if Hungary loses, Slovenia will still be interested in winning and securing the top spot in the Group. The final match of the day between Iceland and Sweden will impact the which nations get the “backup” Olympic Qualification slot. An Iceland win will put Iceland or Portugal in that slot, while a Swedish win will give that backup slot to the winner of Belarus – Austria in the other group.

For all the possible scenarios click here: Link

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’re doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.

Odds are from the 10 Bet Sportsbook <Open an account>

John’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 923.94 Euros
– Yesterday’s Result:   Norway (-3) vs Iceland 1.73/-135; Bet 100 Euros to win 74.07; Push, as a last second Iceland goal was scored for a 31-28 Norway win.
– Today’s Pick: Sweden (-1.5) vs Iceland 1.86/-115; Bet 100 Euros to win 86.95; Result: Back to back matches will take more of a toll on Iceland and Sweden will look to finish strong in front of the home crowd.

Samo’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1619.43 Euros
– Yesterday’s Results: Slovenia (-1.5) vs Portugal; 1.79/-133; Bet 100 Euros to win 75.82; Win 75.82 as Slovenia won the match 29-24.
– Today’s Pick: Money Line Bet: Portugal to win vs Hungary; 1.79/-133 Bet 100 Euros to win 75.82; Hungary were still playing against Sweden just 18-19 hours ago. Awful scheduling and a big advantage for Portugal. Both are very motivated, but for me Portugal is the better team, with a lot of creativity in attack. Hungary’s confidence is hurt and I don’t think they will recover in such little time.

EHF EURO 2020 Main Round Group II Scenarios (UPDATE)

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The final day of Main Round Group play for 2020 European Men’s Handball Championships is tomorrow and there are multiple scenarios impacting both the semifinals and slots for Olympic Qualification Tournaments. Here are the 27 top level scenarios based on the 3 matches to be played.

The first match of the day is Portugal vs Hungary and the following 3 charts reflect the 3 outcomes of that match (Portugal Win; Hungary Win and Draw). Then based on the outcome of that match 2 of the 3 big charts are eliminated. The 2nd match is Norway vs Slovenia and based on that match’s result 6 more accounts are eliminated. And, then for the final match there are only 3 possibilities left.

A few notes on semifinal qualification and slots for Olympic Qualification Tournaments

  • Norway and Slovenia have qualified for the semifinals
  • Europe has 2 slots for Olympic Qualification Tournaments. Slovenia, Hungary, Portugal, Iceland are eligible for these slots from Group II; Belarus and Austria are eligible in Group I.
  • Croatia, Spain and German (Group I) and Norway and Sweden (Group II) are not eligible for these slots since they already have earned slots from the World Championships
  • Whoever qualifies for the semifinals (Slovenia or Hungary) will receive the Europe 2 slot if they don’t win the tournament. The Europe 3 slot will then go the Main Round Group II team that finishes 3rd. (Germany will finish 3rd in Main Round Group I)
  • If Slovenia wins the European Championship the Europe 2 slot will go the Main Round Group II team that finishes 3rd (Portugal). The Europe 3 slot will then likely be awarded to the Main Round Group II team that finishes 4th (Hungary). This is likely because the 4th place teams in Main Round Group I (either Belarus or Austria) are way behind in goal differential. If, however, Sweden places 4th in Main Round Group II, the winner of the Belarus-Austria will secure the Europe 3 slot.
  • In the chart above the nation in Green will receive either the Europe 2 or Europe 3 slot. If Slovenia wins the Championship, the nation in Blue will receive the Europe 3 slot. If Sweden finishes 4th (depicted in Orange) than either Belarus or Austria will get the Europe 3 slot.
  • More detail on Olympic Qualification Tournaments: Link
  • Details for 3 team ties are provided below.

2020 Men’s European Handball Championship “Spoiler Free” Links, Match Odds and Predictions (Tuesday, 21 Jan)

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Norway takes on Iceland in Main Round Group II

The 2020 Men’s European Handball Championships continues today with the first matches of Main Round Group II. Here are the video links, odds and some predictions for those matches.

How to Watch Spoiler Free: Link

Friday, 16 January
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>

EHF Preview of day’s matches: Link

Main Round Group II (Malmo, Sweden)

Current Standings

All 3 matches can be seen on Free TV in the the U.S. on beIN Sports XTRA. (How to watch) Check it out. I like ehfTV, but I personally get a better viewing experience with beIN Sports XTRA. The picture quality is better and it’s more reliable than the web stream.

16:00 Slovenia (-1.5) vs Portugal
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

18:15 Norway (-3) vs Iceland
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

20:30 Sweden (-0.5) vs Hungary
Match Video (On Demad): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

You gotta love Main Round Group II and the dog fight it has become. Norway leads the group and seems to be on a glide path to qualification. Sweden has been disappointing and has been eliminated from semifinal contention. But, the other 4 teams (Slovenia, Hungary, Portugal and Iceland)? They’ve been up and down and these 2 days of back to back games are going to be really interesting.

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’re doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.

Odds are from the 10 Bet Sportsbook <Open an account>

John’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 923.94 Euros
– Yesterday’s Result: Austria’s Nikola Bilyk (Under 5.5 goals) 1.80/-125; Bet 100 Euros to win 80 ; Won 80 Euros as Bilyk scored 5 goals in the match.
– Today’s Pick: Norway (-3) vs Iceland 1.73/-135; Bet 100 Euros to win 74.07; This match should be a total track meet and in the end, I don’t think Iceland has enough depth to keep up for 60 minutes. I’m even tempted to go with an alternative spread with a blowout win, but I’ve learned my lesson and will just go with the conservative -3 goals.

Samo’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1,543.61 Euros
– Yesterday’s Results: Croatia vs Czech Republic (over 52.5); 1.8/-125; Bet 100 Euros to win 80 Euros . Lost 80 Euros as Croatia won the low scoring match 22-21.
– Today’s Pick: Slovenia (-1.5) vs Portugal; 1.79/-133; Bet 100 Euros to win 75.82; I can’t wait for this match. Two teams with creative offenses in a super important match for both teams. I think Slovenia has the slightly better team and they are a lot more experienced than Portugal. These advantage should be crucial today.

The Race for Olympic Qualification Tournament Slots

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Current Status (22 Jan 2020)

The IHF recently posted an article highlighting the status of Olympic Qualification and specifically, the Olympic Qualification Tournaments that will take place 17-19 April.

It’s kind of complicated as to how the dominoes fall, so I’ve created a chart (above) that shows which nations could be placed in each tournament based on how high each nation will place at either the European or African Championships which are both ongoing.

A few notes of explanation.

Hierarchy of Qualification

There are several ways to qualify for the Olympics, but a nation can only qualify once and there is a hierarchy to that qualification.

  1. Host Nation (Japan)
  2. World Champion (Denmark)
  3. Continental Champion
    1. Asia (Bahrain)
    2. Pan America (Argentina)
    3. Africa (Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Angola)
    4. Europe (Spain, Croatia, Norway or Slovenia)
  4. Olympic Qualification Tourney (6 nations from 3 Tourneys)
    1. Seeded based on WC places 2-7
      • 2nd (Norway)
      • 3rd (France)
      • 4th (Germany)
      • 5th (Sweden)
      • 6th (Croatia)
      • 7th (Spain)
      • 8th – Egypt
      • 9th – Brazil
    2. Seeded based on 2nd or 3rd at Continental Championship

So with this hierarchy, there is a domino effect. As an example if Norway were to win the European Championship they will qualify as a continental champion and they will be removed from the Olympic Qualification Tourney seeding. And, then every nation on the list would move up one spot and slide over to another tournament based on the arrows indicated.

2020 African Championships

Four nations (Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Angola) have already qualified for the semifinals. On Wednesday, 22 January they will play for semifinal seeding. On Friday, 24 January the semifinals will be played and on Sunday, 26 January the Finals will be played.

Africa was the 2nd best continent at the 2019 World Championships so Africa has 2 slots in the Olympic Qualification Tournaments. Egypt was also the 8th place team at the World Championships, so they might be in a position to secure an OQT slot through that path. But, that path will only open up if Norway, Croatia or Spain win the European Championships. If that happens, it’s possible that Africa could end up with 3 nations qualifying for an OQT. One scenario would be Tunisia winning the title and qualifying automatically, Egypt finishing second (securing the WC slot) and then Angola and Algeria securing the Africa 2 and Africa 3 slots.

2020 European Championships

A lot is still up in the air with the European Championships. I’ll try and break down some of the key scenarios.

Dominoes or No Dominoes: 3 of the 12 nations still playing (Norway, Croatia and Spain) have WC slots and if they win the title they will move those dominoes. 4 nations in Main Round Group II (Slovenia, Hungary, Portugal and Iceland) do not have a WC slot and if one of these nations wins the title there will be no dominoes. (Sorry Egypt; Sorry Brazil)

What different places (final ranking) could secure the Europe 2 and Europe 3 slots? You might think this would be a simple determination, but there are actually several possibilities.

  • 2nd, 3rd or 4th place: Slovenia could secure the Europe 2 position by qualifying for the semifinals and then failing to win the championship
  • 5th/6th place: Portugal has secured the Europe 2 or Europe 3 position by finishing 3rd in Main Round Group II. They will play Germany for 5th place, but since German has a WC slot the match result wouldn’t matter
  • 7th/8th place: If Slovenia wins the title then the Europe 3 slot will go to the 7th place team. Since the 7th place team, Sweden, has already qualified for an OQT via the World Championship, the next ranked team (Austria) will get a slot as Europe 3.

Brazil’s Situation

Brazil will qualify for OQT #1 if both of these events occur
– Norway, Croatia or Spain win the European Championship
– Egypt wins the African Championship

And, both of these events are quite possible so they will likely be doing some scoreboard watching on Sunday

Easy – Peasy Tournament #1

As usual, on paper, Tournament #1 is the place to be as it will only have 1 or 2 European nations fighting for 2 slots. France will surely be cheering on Norway to win the title so they can slide into that cup cake tourney. Seriously, here’s a possible tourney 2 lineup: France, Spain, Tunisia, Portugal. Nothing against Chile and S. Korea, but they just aren’t at the level of those side.

I will update this article as more results become known.

2020 Men’s European Handball Championship “Spoiler Free” Links, Match Odds and Predictions (Monday, 20 Jan)

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Spain looks to confirm their place in the Semifinals today with a win or a draw vs Belarus.

The 2020 Men’s European Handball Championships continues today with matches main Main Round Group I. Here are the video links, odds and some predictions for those matches.

How to Watch Spoiler Free: Link

Thursday, 16 January
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>

EHF Preview of day’s matches: Link

Main Round Group I (Vienna, Austria)

Current Standings

16:00 Croatia (-3) vs Czech Republic
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)

18:15 Spain (-5.5) vs Belarus
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)

20:30 Germany (-3) vs Austria
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)

Main Round Group I continues, but after Croatia’s victory over German on Saturday there’s not a whole lot of drama left. Croatia has already qualified for the semifinals and Spain can join them with a win or draw vs Belarus. In fact, Belarus is the only team remaining with a “realistic” chance of taking Spain’s place. All they need to do is upset Spain, beat Austria in their final match and get Croatia to beat Spain. Not easy, but easier than Germany’s path which requires those things to happen and for Belarus to beat Spain by 7.

In short, the remaining drama is mostly waiting for the Croatia-Spain match on Wednesday to determine who will finish first and likely avoid Norway in a semifinal. The only other side drama will be the battle for the 2 Olympic Qualification slots. The nations in Main Round Group I that need a slot (Austria, the Czech Republic and Belarus) will likely need to take 3rd in the group to compete with the nations in Main Round Group II that need an Olympic slot (Slovenia, Hungary, Iceland and Portugal). Those nations seem poised to likely finish 2nd and 3rd, meaning that a 3rd place showing in Group I would set up a 5th place match for the last Euro placement qualifying slot.

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’re doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.

Odds are from the 10 Bet Sportsbook <Open an account>

John’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 843.94 Euros
– Yesterday’s Result: Money Line bet: Iceland (to win) vs Portugal 2.70/+170; Bet 100 Euros to win 170; Won 170 Euros as Iceland beat Portugal 28-25
– Today’s Pick: Austria’s Nikola Bilyk (Under 5.5 goals) 1.80/-125; Bet 100 Euros to win 80; Bilyk scored 6 goals or more against weaker opposition, but managed only 3 goals against Spain and Croatia. Germany has little chance of making the semifinals, but they will stay play hard on defense and make it tough for Bilyk to score.

Samo’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1,623.61 Euros
– Yesterday’s Results:
Sweden(+4) vs Norway (-119/1.84); Bet 100 Euros to win 84: Won 84 Euros as Sweden lost by 3, 23-20
– Today’s Pick: Croatia vs Czech Republic (over 52.5); 1.8/-125; Bet 100 Euros to win 80 Euros; Absolutely meaningless game for Croatia today against the Czech Republic. Coach Červar will look to avoid injuries and rest key players… But, they still have just 16 players available, so there is no B team that can play today. This will mean a lot more playing time for players like Šarac and Matanović. The over/under goal line looks a bit low for match like that.

Handball Halls in Europe have me Singing “Take Me Home, Country Roads…”: And, Now there’s actually Handball in West Virginia

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Almost, heaven, West Virginia. And, now home to the #3 college handball team in the country.

I’ve always been amused with the adoption of American arena anthems at European handball venues. First it was “Sweet Caroline” and then little by little “Take Me Home, Country Roads” has gotten more airplay. I first heard it during a 2017 Kielce Champions League match and wrote this whimsical post: Link

Now it seems like it’s being played during every match at the European Championships. So much that it’s got me humming around. Yes, when my wife asked me why on earth I was singing an old John Denver tune my honest reply was, “Because I’ve been watching so much handball.”

What’s funny, is that handball is now actually being played at West Virginia University (WVU), where logically, the song first became a sporting anthem. It’s played at every American football game there and for most other sports as well.

The WVU handball side is even currently ranked as the #3 college program in the country. I doubt, though, that “Take Me Home, Country Roads” has ever rang out a handball match yet. The WVU roster is composed entirely of Middle East students who likely aren’t well versed in WVU traditions. But, maybe since the song is now a handball tradition it will get some air play.

Why not? The guy that wrote the song had never stepped foot in West Virginia prior to writing it. I’m thinking 99% of the fans in Malmo, Vienna and other venues have never visited the state. The song is clearly a state of mind, not a state of residency. But, for sure these guys now have more claim to it then any other handball fans or players in the world.

West Virginia Handball
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2020 Men’s European Handball Championship “Spoiler Free” Links, Match Odds and Predictions (Sunday, 19 Jan)

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Is Portugal really on a path to the Semifinals? Or, are they due for a letdown? (I think they are due)

The 2020 Men’s European Handball Championships continues today with three matches from Main Round Group II. Here are the video links, odds and some predictions for those matches.

How to Watch Spoiler Free: Link

Sunday, 19 January
All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs)
Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>

EHF Preview of day’s matches: Link

Main Round Group II (Malmo, Sweden)

Current Standings

14:00 Portugal (-1.5) vs Iceland
Match Video (On Deman): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)
(Also available on beIN Sports XTRA: Link)

16:15 Slovenia (-3.5) vs Hungary
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)

18:30 Norway (-3) vs Sweden
Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)
(Also available on beIN Sports XTRA: Link)

Main Round Group I continues with some interesting contests. First up is Portugal vs Iceland. Fresh off a 10 goal victory over Sweden, Portugal is now a favorite and a contender for the semifinals. Are they really for real? Or can Iceland put those upstarts in their place and keep their hopes for a SF alive? Then Slovenia takes on Hungary. Which Hungary will show up? The team that dismantled Iceland or the team that was dismantled by Norway? Is Slovenia really the 2nd best team here? The nightcap features hosts Sweden taking on undefeated Norway. Still reeling from a 10 goal loss to Portugal can the hosts regroup for a big upset? Or, does Norway just keep rolling along?

So many questions. Let’s get some answers.

Betting Predictions

For this tournament we’re doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.

Odds are from the 10 Bet Sportsbook <Open an account>

John’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 673.94 Euros
– Yesterday’s Result: Spain (-5) vs Austria 1.86/-116; Bet 100 Euros to win 86.20 ; Lost Euros as Austria put up a good fight prior to losing 30-26.
– Today’s Pick: Money Line bet: Iceland (to win) vs Portugal 2.70/+170; Bet 100 Euros to win 170; When a team used to being the underdog becomes the favorite at some point there’s usually a bit of a let down. I think that let down comes down today in the form of an Iceland victory.

Samo’s Pick(s):
– Current Bankroll: 1,539.61 Euros
– Yesterday’s Results: Croatia (-1) vs Germany (-114/1.87); Bet 100 Euros to win 87.71; Result was a push thanks to Sego’s save to preserve a 25-24 Croatia victory.
– Today’s Pick: Sweden(+4) vs Norway (-119/1.84); Bet 100 Euros to win 84; Before the Euro started Sweden were 6/1 to win this Euro while Norway were 8/1. There is no doubt Norway is in much better form and are favorites today, but I think the bookies are overreacting a bit. Sweden is still a great team, there are two new players in the squad for today (Pettersson and Lagergren) and they are playing at home. I think it should be fairly close game.