Euro 2022 Qualification Scenarios (Sunday, 2 May)

Posted on May 2, 2021 by John Ryan

**The projected top four 3rd place teams (If the odds predictions are 100% correct)**

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All times are CET which is 6 hours ahead of US ET. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM and/or OddsPortal.

Today (Sunday, 2 May) at 1800 CET, qualification for the 2022 European Handball Championships will wrap up with a mad dash of 15 simultaneous matches. Here are those 15 matches, the current handicap odds and a top level summary of what each team needs to do to qualify. For a way more detailed summary including all possibilities check out this earlier posting: Link

All matches can be seen on ehfTV. You might want to get multiple devices and laptops today. I will also try and tweet with timely updates as to the current qualification situation and which matches have become pivotal: Team Handball News on Twitter

Group 1
- France (-12.5) vs Greece
  - This match is very unlikely to effect qualification
Group 2
- Austria (-0.5) vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
  - Austria: If Austria win they finish in 2nd place. If they lose they head to the 3rd place table with 0 points and they start the day with a -29 GD. Mathematically, in the running, but it would probably take some ridiculous blow outs to advance with that high of a -GD. Should they draw vs Bosnia they would take 1 point to the table, but they would need to have several of the swing matches go there way.
  - Bosnia & Herzegovina: If Bosnia beats Austria they will finish in 2nd place. If they lose, they will take 2 points to the 3rd place table and they start the day with a GD of 0. And, that probably is enough to finish 4th or better. To be on the safe side they will be hoping for results in the other groups that send teams to the table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
    - Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
    - N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Germany (-11.5) vs Estonia
  - This match is very unlikely to effect qualification
Group 3
- Czech Republic (-1) vs Ukraine
  - Czech Republic: The Czech Republic is in pretty good shape. If they beat Ukraine they finish 2nd in their group. If they lose to the Ukraine they will finish 3rd, but will have 2 points and will start the day with a +1 GD.
  - Ukraine: Ukraine’s situation is a little more precarious. If they beat the Czech Republic they qualify, but if they lose they enter the table with just 1 point, meaning they will be looking for results in the other groups that result in teams heading to the 3rd place table with 0 points. Poland will likely need 2 of the 3 results below to happen:
    - Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
    - N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Russia (-7.5) vs Faroe Islands
  - This match has no effect on qualification
Group 4
- Portugal (-5.5) vs LithuaniaLithuania might get in with their 2 points from upsetting Iceland. Key word: might. An upset draw or win, however, should put them through
  - Lithuania: If Lithuania loses to Portugal as expected they will have 2 points, but also a pretty high -GD: -22 plus whatever they lose to Portugal by. This means they will be hoping for results from the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Lithuania will likely need 2 of the 4 results below to happen:
    - Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
    - Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
    - N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Iceland (-10) vs Israel
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification
Group 5
- Netherlands vs Poland (-0.5)
  - Netherlands: They have qualified. There is no possible way for there to be 4 nations with 3 points in the 3rd place table.
  - Poland: Poland is in pretty good shape as they will head to the table with at least 2 points and will start the day with a -3 GD.
- Slovenia (-9.5) vs Turkey
  - This match has no effect on qualification
Group 6
- Belarus (-8.5) vs Latvia
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification
- Norway (-12.5) vs Italy
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification
Group 7
- N. Macedonia vs Switzerland (-2)
  - Switzerland: If Switzerland beat Macedonia they head to the 3rd place table with 2 points and start the day with a -8 GD. 2 points might be enough to qualify and their GD will improve depending on the margin of victory so they might catch up to other teams with 2 points. And, they will also be looking for results in the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
    - Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
    - Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
    - Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
- Denmark (-13) vs Finland
  - This match has no effect on qualification
Group 8
- Montenegro (-1.5) vs Romania
  - Montenegro and Romania: Well, this is the wild card situation…
    - If Montenegro wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they head to the table with 0 points and a -24 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
    - If Romania wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they finish in 4th place and Kosovo takes 3rd, but with 0 points and a -26 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
    - If however, Romania and Montenegro draw Montenegro finishes 2nd and Romania takes 3rd… And, they head to the table with 3 points which will qualify them as well.Will these teams play for a draw? No, that’s tough to manipulate from the first minute of a 60 minute match. And, if either team gets a lead that’s a comfortable way to qualify. That being said, if the match is tied in the waning minutes of the game will there be any incentive to take a risky shot that could turn into an easy fast break for the other team? No… None, whatsoever.
- Sweden (-11.5) vs Kosovo
  - This match is unlikely to effect qualification

The Possible Outcomes (Just the Likely Ones)

Here are the most likely 3rd place teams and the results that would head to the best 3rd place table. (For every single possible outcome: Link)

**Possible 3rd Place Results (The Likely Ones)**

Projected Results (Based Strictly on the Odds)

Taking the odds above as to which teams would win and by how many goals (the handicap was rounded up) these are the teams that would qualify

Teams that qualify by finishing 2nd in their group: Poland, Czech Republic, Austria, Montenegro

Teams that will finish in 3rd place and the resulting top 4 teams: Netherlands, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lithuania

Teams currently in contention that would finish in 4th place: Romania

Of course, this is just one possible outcome of many. And, with 5 matches projected to be close it’s pretty unlikely that this is what will occur. Switzerland could lose to Macedonia, Bosnia could be Austria, etc, etc.

Halftime Projection (To be filled at halftime)

As fast as I can possibly do it, I will update the table at halftime. And, I will try to post updates on Twitter as the matches head to the finish. Key word… Try. It can be very hard to post and watch 5 matches at the same time. And, it goes without saying I’m not infallible. Hopefully, there won’t be any mistakes.

Team Handball News on Twitter: Link

Scenarios: 2022 European Men’s Handball Championship Qualification

Posted on April 29, 2021 by John Ryan

NOTE: This is a work in progress. Check back for updates.

Euro 2022 Qualification Format

The qualification picture for the Men’s 2022 European Championships is starting to become clearer, but there is still quite a bit yet to be resolved this Sunday when 15 qualification matches will be simultaneously played at 1800 CET. Yes, you read that right: 15 matches will be played simultaneously. Although, I haven’t seen it stated anywhere, I’m guessing this is being done to make it tougher (if not impossible) for any manipulation of the results to favor one over another possible. And, to avoid the possibility of a situation where a draw might be advantageous for both nations and this is clearly known before the start of a match.

All, well in good, but this results in quite a bit of a headache for teams trying to figure out what they need to do in order to qualify. And, this is especially true when trying to determine which teams will qualify as the 4 best 3rd place teams. The 3rd place teams from all 8 groups will be ranked based on the points and goal differential they’ve obtained in Group Play vs the 1st and 2nd place teams in their group. (Results against the 4th place team are thrown out.) As you might expect this means picking off 2 points for a win or 1 point for a draw against the top two teams in your group are likely to be critical for qualification.

Current 3rd Place Standings (A Little Bit Misleading)

Here are the current 3rd Place Standings (from the Wikipedia Euro 2022 Qualification Page):

**Euro 2022 Qualification (3rd Place Standings after matches played on April 30)**

These standings, however, can be a bit misleading because the teams that are currently in 3rd place might not end up in 3rd place. No group demonstrates this more clearly than Group 8. Right now Romania is in 3rd place and thanks to a 36-27 win over 2nd place Montenegro they have 2 points and a GD of -2. Unfortunately, for Romania, however, is the reality that they also have a loss and a draw vs 4th place Kosovo and should they end up tied with Kosovo they will slip into 4th place on head to head tiebreakers. And, then Kosovo would make this table, but they would have 0 points and a GD of -26 or even worse depending on their last match with Sweden.

Euro 2022 Group Scenarios

Below for each group are the current standings, potential final standings (if necessary) and the potential 3rd place points and goal differential that will go to the overal 3rd place standings. Also, highlighted in light blue is what I think the more likely outcomes are.

Group 1

**Standings after matches played on April 29**

Group 1 is pretty straightforward. Serbia and France have already qualified and Greece is guaranteed to finish in 3rd place. In order to qualify, Greece will likely need an upset win over France on Sunday. And, even that win might not be enough with the -21 GD they will start with. In blue, is what I project to be the most likely scenario.

Group 2

Group 2 is a bit complicated. Germany is guaranteed to finish in first place while Austria will host Bosnia & Herzegovina in a match that will likely determine 2nd and 3rd place. Likely, but not guaranteed as there is one scenario where Estonia can sneak into 3rd place.

Barring Estonia pulling an epic upset over Germany, the Austria – Bosnia match will determine who gets 2nd place. As can be seen in the table below Austria probably needs a win as their 3rd place table will be 0 points and a GD worse than -29. Whereas Bosnia would probably be in pretty good shape with 2 points from their victory against Austria earlier in qualification.

Group 3

**Standings after matches played on April 30**

Russia has won the group and qualified and the Faroe Islands has been eliminated. The Czech Republic – Ukraine match will decide 2nd and 3rd place. Ukraine needs to win the match to finish 2nd while the Czech Republic will finish 2nd with either a win or a draw. The Czech Republic is also in a good position to qualify as a 3rd place team since they will take 3 points with them into the 3rd place table. The Ukraine might also qualify, but 1 point (for their draw with Russia) might not be enough.

Group 4

Group 4 is relatively straight forward. Portugal and Island will finish in the top 2 places while Lithuania will finish in 3rd place in 8 of the 9 scenarios. If Israel were to upset Iceland and Portugal were to beat Lithuania Israel would finish ahead of Lithuania due to a better goal differential in their two meetings.

Lithuania thanks to the 2 points earned for their upset win over Iceland have good chances to secure one of the best 3rd places. Israel’s chances are a real long shot as it would require an upset victory over Iceland in Iceland. The most like scenario will be for both Portugal and Iceland to earn victories on Sunday.

Group 5

Group 5 appears to have 3 qualifiers. Slovenia due to tiebreaker advantages is guaranteed to finish either 1st or 2nd. The result of the Poland – Netherlands match will determine which of those teams will finish in 3rd place. If Poland beats the Netherlands, the Netherlands will finish in 3rd place. If the Netherlands wins or if the match is a draw Poland will finish in 3rd place. Winless Turkey is guaranteed to finish 4th.

Should the Netherlands finish in 3rd place they will take 3 points with them into the third place table, so it’s hard to see them not finishing in the top four. Poland should they finish in 3rd place will take 2 point with them so they should also have good chances. In blue are the two most like outcomes on Sunday.

Group 6

Norway and Belarus have qualified and either Italy or Latvia will finish in 3rd place. Italy has the tiebreaker advantage over Latvia,

Both Italy and Latvia need a big upset win in order to have a chance in the 3rd place table. And, even that might not be enough as they have a big GD deficit. Both teams are big underdogs in their last match and the most likely outcome is that they will both lose.

Group 7

Group 7 is all about Switzerland as they are guaranteed to finish in 3rd place. The only question is whether they can beat N. Macedonia in N. Macedonia to head to the 3rd place table with 2 points.

Group 8

Sweden is guaranteed to finish 1st, but Montenegro, Romania and Kosovo are duking it out for 2nd and 3rd. Montenegro has a tiebreaker advantage over Kosovo while Kosovo has a tiebreaker advantage over Romania

Here’s where it really gets interesting… If undefeated Sweden beats Kosovo as expected the Montenegro – Romania will decide who gets 2nd and it’s essentially a winner take all situation.

If Montenegro wins, Romania is eliminated as Kosovo is the 3rd place team due to to their victory and draw vs Romania
If Romania wins, Montenegro is the 3rd place team, but they take 0 points and a (-24 + the amount of their loss) as a GD. Barring a bizarre turn of events Montenegro is eliminated.
Winner take all, except there are also draws in handball. And should that happen, both teams will qualify. Montenegro as the 2nd place team and Romania as a 3rd place team taking 3 points into the table which is surely enough to qualify as a best place 3rd team.

Putting it All Together

Here are the “likely results” from each of the 8 groups roughly in order from strongest to weakest

**Definitely will result in 2 or 3 points**

**Definitely will result in at least 1 point**

**Swing groups that could result in 0 points or 2 points**

**The wild card group where a drawn match could really shake things up**

**Two groups that are unlikely to matter**

Here’s a rough summary of what each nation needs to happen in order to qualify

Netherlands: They have qualified. There is no possible way for there to be 4 nations with 3 points in the 3rd place table.
Poland: Poland is in pretty good shape as they will head to the table with at least 2 points and will start the day with a -3 GD.
Lithuania: If Lithuania loses to Portugal as expected they will have 2 points, but also a pretty high -GD: -22 plus whatever they lose to Portugal by. This means they will be hoping for results from the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Lithuania will likely need 2 of the 4 results below to happen:
- Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
- Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
- N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
Czech Republic: The Czech Republic is in pretty good shape. If they beat Ukraine they finish 2nd in their group. If they lose to the Ukraine they will finish 3rd, but will have 2 points and will start the day with a +1 GD.
Ukraine: Ukraine’s situation is a little more precarious. If they beat the Czech Republic they qualify, but if they lose they enter the table with just 1 point, meaning they will be looking for results in the other groups that result in teams heading to the 3rd place table with 0 points. Poland will likely need 2 of the 3 results below to happen:
- Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
- N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
Bosnia & Herzegovina: If Bosnia beats Austria they will finish in 2nd place. If they lose, they will take 2 points to the 3rd place table and they start the day with a GD of 0. And, that probably is enough to finish 4th or better. To be on the safe side they will be hoping for results in the other groups that send teams to the table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
- Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
- N. Macedonia beating Switzerland
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
Austria: If Austria win they finish in 2nd place. If they lose they head to the 3rd place table with 0 points and they start the day with a -29 GD. Mathematically, in the running, but it would probably take some ridiculous blow outs to advance with that high of a -GD. Should they draw vs Bosnia they would take 1 point to the table, but they would need to have several of the swing matches go there way.
Switzerland: If Switzerland beat Macedonia they head to the 3rd place table with 2 points and start the day with a -8 GD. 2 points might be enough to qualify and their GD will improve depending on the margin of victory so they might catch up to other teams with 2 points. And, they will also be looking for results in the other groups that send teams to the 3rd place table with less than 2 points. Those results include:
- Ukraine beating the Czech Republic
- Bosnia & Herzegovina beating Austria
- Montenegro and Romania not ending in a draw
Montenegro and Romania: Well, this is the wild card situation…
- If Montenegro wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they head to the table with 0 points and a -24 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
- If Romania wins they take 2nd in the group. If they lose they finish in 4th place and Kosovo takes 3rd, but with 0 points and a -26 GD (little chance of finishing in the top 4)
- If however, Romania and Montenegro draw Montenegro finishes 2nd and Romania takes 3rd… And, they head to the table with 3 points which will qualify them as well.
  - Will these teams play for a draw? No, that’s tough to manipulate from the first minute of a 60 minute match. And, if either team gets a lead that’s a comfortable way to qualify. That being said, if the match is tied in the waning minutes of the game will there be any incentive to take a risky shot that could turn into an easy fast break for the other team? No… None, whatsoever.
Italy, Greece, Latvia and Israel: These sides could pull off big upsets and get 2 points, but it’s hard to see that happening. Should it occur, though, their situation would be essentially the same as Lithuania’s above.

Scenarios: Men’s Olympic Qualification Tourney #2

Posted on March 13, 2021 by John Ryan

Note: This analysis was done prior to the matches on day 2. A new update prior to match day 3 is available here: Link

On paper, Olympic Qualification Tournament #2 will likely be decided by the head to head results in the 3 matches between France, Croatia and Portugal. Tunisia is certainly capable of pulling off an upset and should they win or draw against those 3 teams all of this analysis will no longer be valid.

With that in mind here are the scenario possibilities taking into account these 3 matches

Friday, 12 March, France 30, Croatia 26
Saturday, 13 March, Croatia 25, Portugal 24
Sunday, 14 March, France vs Portugal

**Men’s Tourney #2 Scenarios (Assuming Tunisia loses all 3 of their matches)**

On match day 1, France beat Croatia 30-26 to give France 2 points. It is also assumed that all three teams will pick up 2 points vs Tunisia. This chart depicts the 6 basic scenarios with the 2nd match between Croatia and Portugal depicted on the left and the 3rd match between France and Portugal depicted on the top.

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Olympics, red indicates the team will finish in 3rd place and yellow indicates that 2 or 3 teams are level on points and subsequent tiebreakers will be required to determine placing.

Here are some top level notes regarding today’s pivotal match between Portugal and Croatia

If Portugal beats Croatia, Portugal and France qualify for Tokyo and Croatia is eliminated
If Portugal and Croatia draw, France qualifies for Tokyo. 2nd place between Portugal and Croatia will then depend on the outcome of the Portugal-France match on Sunday. A Portugal win or draw vs France qualifies Portugal. If Portugal loses to France it will then come down to Goal Differential in all matches played.
If Croatia beats Portugal qualification for Tokyo for all 3 teams will depend on the outcome of the Portugal-France match on Sunday. If France beats or draws vs Portugal, France and Croatia will qualify for Tokyo. If, however, Portugal beats France qualification will come down to tiebreakers for a 3 way tie between France, Portugal and Croatia (See below)

3 Way Tie Between France, Croatia and Portugal (Level on 4 Points)

Should Croatia beat Portugal and Portugal beat France qualification on Tokyo will be decided by head to head goal differential for the 3 matches between those teams. The charts below highlight the possibilities regarding the margin of victory in all 3 matches.

The first column simply depicts the the Goal Differential Standings after the first match, which is a result we already know, France 30, Croatia 26. The second column depicts the Goal Differential Standings for Croatia beating Portugal by margins from 1 to 8 goals

The 1st column simply depicts the the Goal Differential Standings after the first match, which is a result we already know, France 30, Croatia 26.
The 2nd column depicts the Goal Differential Standings for Croatia beating Portugal by margins from 1 to 8 goals.
The 3rd column depicts the final Goal Differential Standings for Portugal beating France by margins of 1 to 8 goals
Green indicates qualifying for Tokyo; Red indicates 3rd place and Yellow indicates a tie which would then be settled by Head to Head Goals scored.

Some top level notes

Croatia needs to win by 5 over Portugal to guarantee qualification in this scenario
A 4 goal Croatia win would also qualify Croatia under most outcomes in the Portugal-France Match
A 3 goal Croatia win leaves a few possibilities
A 2 or 1 goal Croatia win is unlikely to help Croatia in this scenario as it would require big win by Portugal over France
If Portugal loses to Croatia by 1 or 2 goals they can still qualify for Tokyo if they beat France by just 1 goal. However, as the margin a Croatian victory grow they have to beat France by a greater and greater margin of victory.
France will likely qualify in this scenario as it requires Portugal to not only win, but win big in most scenarios.

Scenarios: Men’s Olympic Qualification Tourney #3

Posted on March 12, 2021 by John Ryan

Note: This analysis was done prior to the matches on day 2. A new update prior to match day 3 is available here: Link

On paper, Olympic Qualification Tournament #3 will likely be decided by the head to head results in the 3 matches between Germany, Sweden and Slovenia. Algeria is a respectable side and has shown they can compete with top sides (losing to France 29-26 at the World Championships) but, it is still an unlikely proposition.

With that in mind here are the scenario possibilities taking into account these 3 matches

Friday, 12 March, Germany 25, Sweden 25
Saturday, 13 March, Germany vs Slovenia
Sunday, 14 March, Slovenia vs Sweden

**Men’s Tourney #3 Scenarios (Assuming Algeria loses all 3 of their matches)**

On match day 1, Germany and Sweden played to a 25-25 draw, giving both sides 1 point each. It is also assumed that all three teams will pick up an additional 2 points vs Algeria. This chart depicts the 6 basic scenarios with the 2nd match between Germany and Slovenia depicted on the left and the 3rd match between Slovenia and Sweden depicted on the top.

Here’s what each team needs to do to qualify for the Olympics

Germany
- Win their match vs Slovenia OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and (have Sweden beat Slovenia or Slovenia beat Sweden) OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and have Sweden-Slovenia play to a draw and beat either Sweden or Slovenia in the 3 way tiebreakers OR
- Lose their match vs Slovenia and have Slovenia beat Sweden and beat Sweden on subsequent tiebreakers

Sweden
- Win their match vs Slovenia OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and (have Germany beat Slovenia or Slovenia beat Germany) OR
- Draw their match vs Slovenia and have Germany-Slovenia play to a draw and beat either Germany or Slovenia in the 3 way tiebreakers OR
- Lose their match vs Slovenia and have Slovenia beat Germany and beat Germany on subsequent tiebreakers

Slovenia
- Win their match vs Germany OR
- Win their match vs Sweden OR
- Draw both matches vs Sweden and Germany, and then beat either Germany or Sweden in the 3 way tiebreakers

Group III Scenarios: Portugal Qualifies with a Win; Norway Needs French Help

Posted on January 23, 2021 by John Ryan

Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group III, France (except for one very unlikely scenario) has all but qualified, Portugal is in with a win and Norway needs help from France.

**Group II Standings Heading into the Final Match Day**

The final match day will see Switzerland and Algeria play first, followed by Norway vs Iceland and closing out with France vs Portugal. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from the two matches that matter:

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.

With the exception of one scenario (explained below) here’s what each team needs to do on Monday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.

France: Win, draw and or lose by 6 goals or less vs Portugal
Portugal: Win vs France or if Norway loses to Iceland, a draw will suffice
Norway: Has multiple scenarios, but all of them involve finishing better or tied with Portugal on points. In most cases this simply means France beating Portugal. Yes, even if Norway loses to Iceland, France can still bail them out by beating Portugal

One scenario, which is also quite likely is a 3 way tie with France, Norway and Portugal all level on 8 points (depicted in yellow above)..

The 3 results from their head to head matches are

France beat Norway 28-24
Norway beat Portugal 29-28
Portugal beat France (TBD)

Each team will have 2 points, so the next tie breaker is head to head Goad Differential (GD). Norway is locked in at -4, while France starts at +4 and Portugal starts at -1. The chart below depicts how that GD will change based on Portugal’s margin of victory vs France.

As depicted Portugal is guaranteed to finish either 1st or 2nd and qualify for the Quarterfinals. If they win by 1 or 2 goals, France will finish 1st and Portugal will finish 2nd. If Portugal wins by by 3 or more goals they would win the group. Norway is starting in a really big hole and would need Portugal to win by 8 goals in order to pass France in GD. Should Portugal win by 7 goals exactly, France and Norway will be tied on GD and the next tiebreaker is Goals For (GF) in head to matches. Should this occur France will need to have scored more than 25 goals to pass Norway’s GF of 53. Should France score 25 goals exactly the next tiebreaker is GD in all games played and Norway would have the advantage there.

Group II Scenarios: Denmark Guaranteed 1st; Argentina and Qatar play for 2nd; Croatia with a Possible Back Door Entry

Posted on January 23, 2021 by John Ryan

Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group II, Denmark is guaranteed, but 3 teams (Argentina, Croatia and Qatar) each have chances to take 2nd place

The final match day will see Japan and Bahrain play for 5th place, followed by Argentina vs Qatar and closing out with Denmark vs Croatia. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from those two matches:

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.

What Each Team Needs to do to Qualify for the Quarterfinals

With the exception of one scenario (explained below) here’s what each team needs to do on Monday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.

Denmark: Will finish 1st in all scenarios
Argentina: Win or draw vs Qatar
Qatar: Win vs Argentina and have Denmark beat Croatia
Croatia: Win vs Denmark and have Qatar beat Argentina

The one scenario that’s a little complicated is the tied point standings that will result if Qatar beats Argentina and then Denmark and Croatia draw (depicted in yellow above). This will result in a 3 way tie between Argentina, Qatar and Croatia all level on 6 points.

The 3 results from their head to head matches are

Argentina beat Croatia 23-19
Croatia beat Qatar 26-24
Qatar beat Argentina (TBD)

Each team will have 2 points, so the next tie breaker is head to head Goad Differential (GD). Croatia is locked in at -2, while Argentina starts at +4 and Qatar starts at -2. The chart below depicts how that GD will change based on Qatar’s margin of victory vs Argentina.

As depicted Croatia has no chance of finishing 1st in this scenario. If Qatar wins by 1 or 2 goals, Argentina will finish 1st in this 3 way tie. If Qatar wins by 4 or more, Qatar will finish first.

If Qatar wins by 3 goals exactly both Qatar and Argentina will have a GD of +1 and the next tiebreaker is Goals For (GF) in head to matches. Should this occur Qatar will advance because they are already ahead on GF 24 to 23 and having won the match whatever is scored they will have increased that lead by 3 goals.

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Group IV Scenarios: 4 Teams Battling for 2 QF Slots on the Last Match Day

Posted on January 22, 2021 by John Ryan

Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group IV, four teams are bunched at the top. Here’s the current standings:

**Group IV Standings Heading into the Final Match Day**

The final match day will see N Macedonia and Belarus play for 5th place, followed by Slovenia vs Egypt play first and closing out with Sweden vs Russia. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from those two matches:

The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.

What Each Team Needs to do to Qualify for the Quarterfinals

Sometimes what looks like it will be a jumbled mess turns out to be pretty simple. That’s certainly the case with Group IV and here’s what each team needs to do on Sunday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.

Egypt: Win or draw vs Slovenia
Slovenia: Win vs Egypt
Sweden: Win or draw vs Russia
Russia: Win vs Sweden

It really is that simple. There are, however, several two team ties that will decide which team finishes first or second in the group. I’ve already assembled the standings based on tiebreakers and here are the relevant earlier head to head results:

Sweden beat Egypt 24-23
Russia beat Slovenia 31-25
Egypt beat Russia 28-23
*Sweden-Slovenia was a 28-28 Draw

Since Sweden and Slovenia played to a draw if they should end up level on points the next tiebreaker is Goal Differential. Under that identified scenario Sweden would have played Russia to a draw and therefore would be locked in with a GD of +13 while Slovenia starts the day at +8. Therefore, if Slovenia beats Egypt by 1-4 goals Sweden would finish in 1st place. Should Slovenia beat Egypt by 6 or more goals, Slovenia would finish in 1st place. And, finally, should Slovenia beat Egypt by 5 goals then the next tiebreaker would be goals scored in all matches.