Times above are CET. The Bronze Medal Match will air at 9:30 AM (US ET) and the Gold Medal Match will air at 12:00 PM (US ET)
Sunday, 20 December(Herning, Denmark) All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bronze Medal Match 15:30Croatia vs Denmark (-5.5) (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Paul Bray)
The bronze medal match features hosts Denmark vs “just happy to be here” Croatia. Going into the tournament my one prediction was that this tournament would be unpredictable. And, I guess I was somewhat right. Croatia making the semifinals is a truly out of nowhere outcome that no one saw coming. They came back down to earth on Friday vs France and they would surely like to put on a better show today vs Denmark.
Denmark is surely smarting from the loss to Norway. A game that looked liked within their reach, but gradually slipped away. I suspect, however, that they will shake off that disappointment for a bronze medal. 5.5 goals seems about right to me, though, and I’m staying away from any wage on this match.
Gold Medal Match 18:00 France vs Norway (-2.5) (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch) (Commentary: Paul Bray) EHF Euro website preview: Link
Well, it took awhile for everything to sort itself out, but the 2 strongest favorites going into the tournament will indeed meet each other in Final. Norway looked unstoppable until Friday when they had to dig themselves out of a 3 goal halftime hole vs Denmark. They erased that deficit and went on to win, 27-24. Meanwhile France had no problems whatsoever in their semifinal, easily defeating Croatia, 30-19.
I like France in this match, mostly for their tough, physical defense that can cause real problems for Norway in their set offense. How good can France’s defense be when they put their mind to it? They held Croatia to 5 goals in the first half. Now, obviously, Norway has quite a bit more firepower than Croatia, but that same type of defensive effort should give France a leg up in this match. I like France (+270) to win this match outright.
Will the incredible Croatian fairy tale continue? Photo courtesy of Stregspiller. Check out their Website and Instagram Account.
Friday, 18 December(Herning, Denmark) All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of BetMGM
5th Place Match 15:30Russia (-1.5) vs Netherlands (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Paul Bray)
The big question regarding this match? Why is it even being played? The EHF is awarding 4 direct tickets to the 2021 World Championships and the 5th place match in many instances would serve to identify the 4th ticket. This is because one of the semifinalists might already have a World Championships slot. However, since Spain and the defending World Champions, Netherlands, both failed to make the semifinal all four semifinalists have taken all the direct tickets. Therefore this match is essentially a pointless friendly. And, really pointless in the middle of a pandemic.
Semifinal #1 18:00 France (-4.5) vs Croatia (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch) (Commentary: Paul Bray) EHF Euro website preview: Link
Heading into the tournament Croatia were 100-1 odds to win it all. 40-1 odds to finish in the top 3. They’ve been underdogs in all 6 matches they’ve played and they are outright winners in 5 of those matches, losing like every other team, to Norway. And, get this:
The Croatian women have never played in a semifinal at a major international tournament before.
Never? Yes, kind of surprising when one things of all the success the Men’s team has had over the years. Can they buck all the odds and naysayers yet one more time?
I just don’t think so. On paper, France is clearly the better and more experienced team. Strong defense accompanied by fast breaks should make things rather tough for Croatia. Yes, unfortunately, I think this great story will likely come to an end.
Semifinal #2 20:30 Norway (-4.5) vs Denmark (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch (Commentary: Paul Bray) EHF Euro website preview: Link
Norway has steam rolled over the competition so far barely breaking a sweat. They’ve won the 6 matches they’ve played by an average of 11.5 goals. The Netherlands came closest losing to Norway by just 7 goals. Are they that good? Or… have they largely benefitted from a grouping of weaker competition with a depleted Netherlands side actually being the best team they’ve faced so far?
Meanwhile Denmark has had to fight it out with France and Russia. Could they be the battle tested side ready to take down mighty Norway? Denmark did play Norway close in a couple of friendly matches before the tournament. Losing both contests by scores of 29-26 and 27-25.
Normally, this match would be in front of a packed house with a Danish crowd cheering on the hosts. Perhaps willing the home team on towards an upset. In the time of Coronavirus, however, it will be a rather quiet surreal affair. And, because of this I suspect the clinical Norwegian side will gradually wear down the Danes for a comfortable victory.
Irun hosts Barcelona in a Liga ASOBAL battle at the top of the table. It could be the best chance for an ASOBAL foe to knock off Barca this season.
The Women’s European Championship wraps up this weekend, but at the same time, there’s still plenty of Men’s pro club action. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
American Athletes in Action
Germany HBL 2: TV Emsdetten (Pick em) vs TSV Bayer Dormagen (pickn (Friday, 1930 CET): Link (VPN required)
Ian and Patrick Hueter play for Dormagen. Dormagen hung tough with co-league leaders, Hamburg earlier in the week for most of the way, but ended up losing 32-26. They will be looking to rebound with 2 points vs Emsdetten, a team that is currently in the relegation zone.
You also might want to check out this video feature on the Hueter Brothers: Link (in German).
France Pro Ligue: Angers vs Besancon (Friday, 2000 CET): Link
Abou Fofana plays for Angers. Last weekend Angers had a dismal 28-20 loss to Sarrebourg, another struggling team at the bottom of the league table. On Friday night they get a chance to end the first half of the season on a positive note as they host Besancon a team just 4 points ahead of them in the standings.
Spain Liga Asobal: Huesca vs Leon (-1.5) (Saturday, 1800 CET): Link
Circle Runner, Drew Donlin plays for Leon. Should be a good battle between 4th place Leon and 5th place Huesca. <<Postponed due to positive COVID tests>>
Paul Bray: 30+ Years and Over 2,000 Handball Matches
Perhaps you’ve been enjoying the 2020 Women’s European Handball Championship and the commentary provided by Paul Bray for the matches in Herning. What you may not know, however, is that Bray has been commentating on handball for over 30 years. Yes, he was commentating even when I was still playing. I’ll never forget watching watching matches during the 1993 World Championships in our hotel room and everyone laughing at the British voice calling an offensive foul… barging.
The IHF World Handball magazine has a great story on Paul Bray to mark his now 30 years of handball commentary. (See images below; for some reason it’s not available yet at the IHF website) It’s a wonderful trip down memory lane for old timers and some great education for newcomers as to just how far handball broadcasts have come.
Some of the same history was covered in this podcast interview with Paul Bray from the 2007 World Championships in Germany. We even speculated a bit about how web streaming might help the sport in the years to come. Dare I say it: we even seem prescient.
Upstarts Croatia take on Germany in one of two direct duel matches for a semifinal berth. (Denmark vs Russia is the other)
It’s decision day for the 2020 Women’s European Handball Championships as the final day of Main Round Group play concludes with 6 matches. When the dust settles we’ll know who will play who in the semifinals on Friday. Here are the standings, scenarios, video links, odds and some preview articles that were written before these matches were played.
Tuesday, 15 December All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Main Round Group I (Herning, Denmark)
Main Round Group I Standings (Prior to Matches on 15 Dec)
Main Round Group I Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
16:00 Montenegro vs Spain (-1.5) (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Paul Bray)
18:15 France (-5.5) vs Sweden (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Paul Bray)
20:30 Denmark vs Russia (-1.5) (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch (Commentary: Paul Bray)
France will play Sweden first and then Denmark will take on Russia. Here are the 9 different possible outcomes for the combination of results for those 2 matches:
Main Round Group I Scenarios
Scenarios to Make the Semifinals
Here is what each nation needs to do to advance to the semifinals:
Denmark: Denmark has to beat Russia in order to qualify for the semifinals.
France: If France wins or draws vs Sweden they will qualify for the semifinals. If France loses to Sweden they can still qualify if Russia beats Denmark or the Russia-Denmark match is a draw. They can even still qualify if Russia loses to Denmark, but it is a mathematical improbability. (See note below)
Russia: If Russia wins or draws vs Denmark they will qualify for the semifinals. If Russia loses to Denmark they will still likely qualify if Sweden beats France. (See note below)
What About 1st Place and Avoiding Norway?
Norway has looked very strong and has already won Main Round Group II. This means finishing first in the Group and avoiding Norway in the semifinals is highly desirable.
There are multiple scenarios, but Russia is in the strongest position as they are likely to win any tiebreakers with France. France is in the next strongest position as they win any tiebreakers with Denmark. Finally, Denmark does have one possibility for finishing first: Demark beating Russia and Sweden beating France
A side note on a mathematical improbability*
Russia and France are level on points and played to a 28-28 draw earlier in the competition. This means that should they finish level on points the first tiebreaker will be goal differential in all matches. Russia is currently +14 and France is +5. This means that if both France/Russia lose or both France/Russia win, France would have to gain 10 goals on Russia in the matches played. While this is possible given the teams playing it seems unlikely that much ground could be made up. Additionally, Russia playing second would know exactly what margin they would need to maintain a goal differential advantage.
Main Round Group II (Kolding, Denmark)
Main Round Group II Standings (Prior to Matches on 15 Dec)
Main Round Group II Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
16:00 Netherlands (-4.5) vs Romania (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
18:15 Croatia vs Germany (-1.5) (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
20:30 Hungary vs Norway (-7.5) (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
Norway is undefeated and has already beaten Germany and Croatia so no matter the outcomes of matches played Tuesday they will finish first. This leaves Croatia and Germany fighting for 2nd. The Netherlands can no longer qualify, but their match vs the Romania may have an impact on which team gets second. Here are the 9 different possible outcomes for the combination of results for those 2 matches:
Main Round Group II Scenarios
Scenarios to Make the Semifinals
Here is what each nation needs to do to advance to the semifinals:
Norway: Norway is guaranteed to finish first. Their match vs Hungary will have no bearing on the final standings.
Croatia: If Croatia wins or draws vs Germany they will qualify for the semifinals. If the Netherlands beats Romania they can also still qualify for the semifinals with a 1 goal loss to Germany. (See note below)
Germany: If Germany wins vs Croatia they will qualify for the semifinals. They will also have to win by 2 goals in the Netherlands beats Romania. (See note below)
Why the Netherlands has been eliminated, but their match with Romania could still impact qualification
Should the Netherlands beat Romania and Germany beat Croatia all three teams will be level on 6 points. The next tiebreaker is head to head goal differential n the 3 matches played. The table below depicts the current goal differential for each team and how that goal differential will change based on Germany’s margin of victory in the their match vs Croatia
As you can see the Netherlands has already played their two matches and is stuck at -1 goal differential. And, it is a mathematical impossibility for a -1 goal differential to ever head to the top of the table. If the Netherland had managed a 2 or larger goal win they would have had ever increasing chances. As it is, however, Croatia goes through if Germany wins by 1. If Germany wins by two or more they will go through to the semifinals.
A big challenge for Dormagen and the Hueter brothers on Tuesday
The 2020 EHF Women’s Handball European Championships is in full swing, but there’s still plenty of Men’s club action to watch this week as well. Here’s a summary of the next 3 days.
American Athletes in Action
Germany HBL 2: Hamburg (-3.5) vs Dormagen (Tuesday, 1800 CET): Link (VPN Required)
The Hueter brothers, Ian and Patrick play for Dormagen
Dormagen looked sharp last Friday, a 27-19 victory over Hamm-Westphalia. Now they travel to Hamburg to take on 2nd place Hamburg. A side with clear aspirations to move up to the HBL next season
Hungary K&H League: Gyöngyös vs Eger (Wednesday, 1800 CET): Link
GK, Pal Merkovszki, plays for Gyongyos
This will be the last game of the year for Gyongyos
Check out Merkovszki from this match earlier vs Komlo: Link
The Netherlands narrow 28-27 victory over Germany has made things clearing in Main Round Group II. Here are the standings with just the Hungary-Romania match remaining prior to the final match day on Tuesday.
Main Round Group II Standings (After NED-GER Match)
Norway is undefeated and has already beaten Germany and Croatia so no matter the outcomes of matches played Tuesday they will finish first. This leaves Croatia and Germany fighting for 2nd. The Netherlands can no longer qualify, but their match vs the Romania may have an impact on which team gets second. Here are the 9 different possible outcomes for the combination of results for those 2 matches:
Main Round Group II Scenarios
Scenarios to Make the Semifinals
Here is what each nation needs to do to advance to the semifinals:
Norway: Norway is guaranteed to finish first. Their match vs Hungary will have no bearing on the final standings.
Croatia: If Croatia wins or draws vs Germany they will qualify for the semifinals. If the Netherlands beats Romania they can also still qualify for the semifinals with a 1 goal loss to Germany. (See note below)
Germany: If Germany wins vs Croatia they will qualify for the semifinals. They will also have to win by 2 goals in the Netherlands beats Romania. (See note below)
Why the Netherlands has been eliminated, but their match with Romania could still impact qualification
Should the Netherlands beat Romania and Germany beat Croatia all three teams will be level on 6 points. The next tiebreaker is head to head goal differential n the 3 matches played. The table below depicts the current goal differential for each team and how that goal differential will change based on Germany’s margin of victory in the their match vs Croatia
As you can see the Netherlands has already played their two matches and is stuck at -1 goal differential. And, it is a mathematical impossibility for a -1 goal differential to ever head to the top of the table. If the Netherland had managed a 2 or larger goal win they would have had every increasing chances. As it is, however, Croatia goes through if Germany wins by 1. If Germany wins by two or more they will go through to the semifinals.
The Netherlands and Germany square off today in a Main Round match that both need to win to improve their chances of qualifying for the semifinals. The Netherlands is a 1.5 goal favorite, but I’m taking them with an alternative handicap bet of -2.5 goals at +155. Here’s my rationale for this pick.
The Netherlands are the defending World Champions. Yes, they miss Estavana Polman big time. At times during the European Championships it’s been almost painful to watch how anemic their attack has been. But, after 4 matches they are starting to show some signs of life. In particular, their 2nd half (15-16) vs Norway on Sunday was a good sign.
Germany’s match vs Norway, an eye popping 42-23 loss shows what can happen to Germany if things go south a bit. As, in they can really, really go south. Could strong defense and goal keeping from Tess Wester lead to a flurry of fast breaks? Yes, it sure could.
The only scenario for the Netherlands to make the semifinals requires that there be a 3 way tie at 6 points with the Netherlands, Germany and Croatia. The Netherlands lost to Croatia 27-25 so they are already at -2. This hole means that they really need to win by 4 or 5 goals to get their margin up to +2 or +3. Even higher would be better.
Honestly, if Bet MGM was offering -3.5 or -4.5 I probably would look at putting a wager at that handicap too.
The 2020 Women’s European Handball Championships continues with 2 main round matches from Group II. Here are the standings, odds and links to a preview article that was written before these matches were played.
Monday, 14 December All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Main Round Group II (Kolding, Denmark)
Main Round Group II Standings (Prior to Matches on 14 Dec)
The Netherlands and Germany play first and and both teams still have chances to make the semifinals. A German win or draw in today’s match will set up a winner take all match between Germany and Croatia tomorrow.
A Netherlands victory in today’s match will keep their hopes alive, but they can only qualify on Tuesday if the final table results in a 3 way tie between Croatia, Germany and the Netherlands. Should that happen only the results of the 3 matches between the teams will count. As a result, Netherlands not only needs to win, they need to win by several goals to improve their chances of reaching the semifinals. At a minimum, they need to win by 2 goals. And, with each goal higher than 2 they improve their chances.
The Hungary vs Romania match is strictly for pride and will have no bearing on the semifinals. Main Round Group II Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
18:15 Netherlands (-1.5) vs Germany (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch) Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
20:30 Hungary (-1.5) vs Romania (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch) Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
Only three teams (Russia, France and Denmark) can still advance from Main Round Group I. Two of these three teams will advance while the other will play for 5th place.
Main Round Group I Standings (Prior to Final Match Day)
On Tuesday, France will play Sweden first and then Denmark will take on Russia. Here are the 9 different possible outcomes for the combination of results for those 2 matches:
Main Round Group I Scenarios
Scenarios to Make the Semifinals
Here is what each nation needs to do to advance to the semifinals:
Denmark: Denmark has to beat Russia in order to qualify for the semifinals.
France: If France wins or draws vs Sweden they will qualify for the semifinals. If France loses to Sweden they can still qualify if Russia beats Denmark or the Russia-Denmark match is a draw. They can even still qualify if Russia loses to Denmark, but it is a mathematical improbability. (See note below)
Russia: If Russia wins or draws vs Denmark they will qualify for the semifinals. If Russia loses to Denmark they will still likely qualify if Sweden beats France. (See note below)
What About 1st Place and Avoiding Norway?
Norway has looked very strong and has already won Main Round Group II. This means finishing first in the Group and avoiding Norway in the semifinals is highly desirable.
There are multiple scenarios, but Russia is in the strongest position as they are likely to win any tiebreakers with France. France is in the next strongest position as they win any tiebreakers with Denmark. Finally, Denmark does have one possibility for finishing first: Demark beating Russia and Sweden beating France
A side note on a mathematical improbability*
Russia and France are level on points and played to a 28-28 draw earlier in the competition. This means that should they finish level on points the first tiebreaker will be goal differential in all matches. Russia is currently +14 and France is +5. This means that if both France/Russia lose or both France/Russia win, France would have to gain 10 goals on Russia in the matches played. While this is possible given the teams playing it seems unlikely that much ground could be made up. Additionally, Russia playing second would know exactly what margin they would need to maintain a goal differential advantage.
The 2020 Women’s European Handball Championships continues with 2 main round matches from Group I. Here are the video links, odds and some preview articles that were written before these matches were played.
Sunday, 13 December All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Main Round Group I (Herning, Denmark)
Main Round Group I Standings (Prior to Matches on 13 Dec)
Montenegro and Sweden play first and since neither team can make the semifinals this match is for pride only. Spain has also been eliminated, but if Denmark can either pick up a draw or a win vs Spain their last match on Tuesday vs Russia will be for a semifinal spot. Main Round Group I Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
18:15 Montenegro (-1.5) vs Sweden (Live on ehfTV) (Commentary: Paul Bray)
20:30 Denmark (-2.5) vs Spain (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch) (Commentary: Paul Bray)
The 2020 Women’s European Handball Championships continues with 2 matches from Main Round Group II. Here are the standings, video links, odds and some preview articles that were written before these matches were played.
Saturday, 12 December All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Main Round Group II (Kolding, Denmark)
Main Round Group II Standings (Prior to Matches on 12 Dec)
Hungary and Germany play their first Main Round match. Germany starts with 2 points and if they win out they can qualify for the semifinals. Hungary starts with no points and they will need some help in order to qualify. The second match features unbeaten sides, but there’s no doubt which team is considered the pretender and which one is the contender. Norway is a 9.5 goal favorite over Croatia. Main Round Group II Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
16:00 Hungary (-1.5) vs Germany (Live on ehfTV) Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
18:15 Croatia vs Norway (-9.5) (Live on ehfTV) Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Clayton Lucas)
The 2020 Women’s European Handball Championships continues with 2 main round matches from Group I. Here are the video links, odds and some preview articles that were written before these matches were played.
Friday, 11 December All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Main Round Group I (Herning, Denmark)
Main Round Group I Standings (Prior to Matches on 11 Dec)
Russia and France both hung on for victories yesterday and are tied at the top of the table. A win for either side doesn’t quite guarantee a semifinal, but it practically does. Denmark and Sweden play the nightcap and the winner there will keep their hopes for a semifinal berth alive. Main Round Group I Daily Preview at the Euro 2020 official site: Link
18:15 France (-1.5) vs Russia (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)
20:30 Denmark (-1.5) vs Swedem (Live on ehfTV and beIN Sports Xtra: How to watch Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)
