Hugo Descat: Sharp Action’s MVP for the 2021 World Championships.
During the 2021 IHF Handball World Championships, I conducted another daily betting experiment. Joining me this year was Sharp Action, who’s Twitter profile reads, “Former Handball player for HBC Nantes providing expert advice for sport betting.” We both started with a $1,000 bankroll a couple of days after the tournament started. Our bet sizes varied, but the standard “unit bet” was $100. Here’s how our respective bank rolls went up and down on a day to day basis:
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out who had a better campaign. I lost a hypothetical $282 while Sharp Action made a tidy profit of $732.69.
Overall, I made 12 bets, winning 4 and losing 8. As most of my bets were less than 50-50 propositions, a .500 betting mark would not have been required to break even. Probably, a winning percentage of .460 or a 6-7 record if I had made 13 bets instead of 12. Regardless, I clearly fell short of that expectation and lost money.
As mentioned, Sharp Action had a phenomenal tournament with several good calls and far fewer misses. His betting W-L record for the tournament was 18-9. Since he tended to bet favorites this record is a bit inflated, but no matter how you slice it’s pretty damn good.
Arguably, his most astute pick and observation was noticing a huge disconnect on the total goals scored props that were being offered for French left wing, Hugo Descat. Descat was sharing a lot of playing time with veteran Michael Guigou and perhaps the bookies didn’t think he would get enough playing time. Or, maybe they did not recognize what an effective and consistent scorer he was. Regardless, Sharp Action saw that they were really underestimating Descat, and “Victor” Hugo came through 3 times for a nice profit of $273. Seriously, seeing how Descat blew right past 2.5 goals each time, after the fact, it looks like taking candy from a baby.
Sharp Action “Victor” Hugo Bets
Humbling Results, but Don’t Feel Sorry for Me
Well, the hypothetical debt is start to pile up. Last year, I participated in a similar experiment and lost $115. This year I did even worse, losing $282. Maybe, I’ve got a gambling problem? Good thing I moved out of Vegas, but maybe not such a good thing that online sports betting is now legal in Colorado?
Rest assured everyone. I didn’t lose my shorts. Let’s just say my typical betting unit is around $10 (not $100), meaning I loss $28.20 for the bets recorded above. And, did I make other bets? Did I by chance, jump on the Sharp Action bandwagon for some of his suggestions I found persuasive? I sure did. I haven’t done a full accounting, but I’m actually on the plus side for the World Championships in real money.
Really, the only thing I’ve lost is my handball expert pride. Because I clearly don’t have anything to back up my would be knowledge. On the contrary, there’s now documented evidence that clearly demonstrates that I don’t know what I’m talking about. And, this leads to the following rhetorical question:
Ever Wonder Why “Experts” Rarely (if Ever) Make Betting Predictions?
Seriously, there’s probably not a more powerful way to demonstrate how much you really know about a sport then to open your wallet and go out and consistently pick winners.
Well, there are a number of reasons why so called experts don’t make predictions. It could be that they have personal morality issues with gambling or simply don’t want to be seen as endorsing something that others have issue with… But, there’s one reason that rises above all others.
It’s really hard and there’s a solid chance when all is said and done that they are not going to look like much of an expert.
Yeah, your credibility is at stake. It’s better to just take a pass.
Flensburg 2014
At times like this I will always, always take solace with having been remarkably right once. And, that was when I made my EHF Champions League Final Four predictions prior to the 2013-14 season. I selected all 4 teams that would make it to Cologne and the eventual winner, Flensburg before even a single match had been played. It’s on YouTube and no matter how poorly I screw up forever forward, I will always look back and smile… They can’t take that away from me.
But, could someone be more consistently win on handball bets by relying less on hunches and more on discipline and predictive models. The answer appears to be yes and I will explore this in more detail in a follow on commentary
LIDL Star Ligue vs Liqui Moly HBL: Which league is better? A couple of EHF European League matchups today will provide a couple data points for this debate.
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Because it’s the 2nd tier competition and because there are so many matches to list, I don’t normally don’t discuss the EHF European League. However, there are a couple of matches on Tuesday that I’ll highlight since they are Germany-France club showdowns and are a window to the relative strength of the world’s 2 best leagues.
Both feature 2nd place clubs hosting a club bit further down in the standings. Up first is Berlin taking on Nimes (currently in 6th place in the French League) at 1845 CET and that match is followed by Montpellier hosting Magdeburg (currently in 5th place in the German league) at 2045 CET. 2 matches are by no means a definitive answer, but it will provide some insight.
CET is 6 hours ahead of US ET. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
American Athletes in Action
Liga ASOBAL (Spain)
Aranda vs Leon (-3.5)(Wednesday, 1800 CET): Video Link
Drew Donlin plays defense and circle runner for Leon.
Leon has struggled in Asobal play since the restart of the competition after the World Championship play and has lost 3 straight matches and slipped to 7th place. Aranda, currently in last place, presents an opportunity to right the ship.
HBL 2 (Germany)
Elbflorenz (-1.5) vs Dormagen (Wednesday, 1930 CET): Link (VPN required; More info; What I use)
Ian and Patrick Hueter play for Dormagen.
In what should be a tightly contested match, 5th place Dormagen travels to 6th place Elbflorenz.
Domagoj Srsen on defense for Team USA at the 2019 PANAM Games
USA National Team athlete, Domagoj Srsen has newly signed with German club, HSG Krefeld. Krefeld plays in the 3rd Division (Central Pool), which has currently suspended operations, but later this spring there are plans to resume the competition with an abbreviated season. Srsen, who is primarily a defensive specialist, has played for several higher level clubs including Hannover in the German HBL and Zagreb in the EHF Champions League. Most recently he played with Wilhlemshaven during the 2019-20 season where he played a key role in their promotion to the 2nd division. According to sources, Srsen was not resigned due in part to an injury he sustained this past summary and budget limitations. The tentative plans for the season restart include an abbreviated competition specifically for 3rd Division clubs seeking promotion to the 2nd Division and the Srsen signing is intended to shore up their defense.
Srsen, who is 30 years old, first played for the U.S. in 2011 and has represented the U.S. at both the 2011 and 2019 PANAM Games. He was also on the 20 Man U.S. roster that would have taken part in the 2021 World Championships if the U.S. had not withdrawn from the competition due to too many positive COVID tests. The Srsen signing will mean that two Americans will be on the Krefeld roster as Paul Skorupa also plays for the Eagles.
Patrick Hueter and his brother play for Dormagen and can be seen in action Friday at 1930 CET / 1330 US ET
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Three matches featuring American athletes can be seen online and there are several French and Spanish league matches as well.
CET is 6 hours ahead of US ET. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
American Athletes in Action
HBL 2 (Germany)Dormagen (-3.5) vs Eisenach (Friday, 1930 CET): Link (VPN required; More info; What I use)
Ian and Patrick Hueter play for Dormagen.
5th place Dormagen takes on 10th place Eisenach in Dormagen’s first match since December
A busy week for Drew Donlin and Leon with matches on Tuesday and Thursday. Both will be available for online viewing.
Would you like to know when and where handball matches can be streamed online? If yes, follow Team Handball News on social media for regular updates: TwitterFacebookInstagram
A real busy week for club handball fans with plenty of action to check out on ehfTV and other platforms. Highlights include the a Barca-Veszprem clash on Tuesday and the EHF CL Match of the Week between Nantes and Aalborg on Wednesday.
CET is 6 hours ahead of US ET. Handicap (point spread) odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
Leon (-1.5) vs Chekhovskie (Tuesday, 2045 CET): Video Link
Drew Donlin plays circle runner and middle defense for Leon
Leon is in 2nd place in Group A and will host 3rd place Chekhovskie
Liga ASOBAL (Spain)
Huesca vs Leon (-1.5) (Thursday, 1955 CET): Video Link
This is a key ASOBAL match for Leon as they’ve lost their first two matches in 2021 and Huesca is tied with them for 4th place in the league standings.
Team USA’s Nicole Andersen and her club, As Cannes Mandelieu Handball play on Saturday at 1800 CET
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The World Championships are over and we didn’t get the chance to see the U.S compete. This weekend, however, you can see four Team USA athletes in action with their club teams.
CET is 6 hours ahead of US ET. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
American Athletes in Action
Pro Ligue (France)
Valence (-1.5) vs Angers (Friday, 2015 CET): Video Link
Abou Fofana plays left back and defense for for Angers
Valence is just 2 points ahead of Angers in the standings and this is an opportunity for Angers to move out of the relegation zone.
Liga Asobal (Spain)
Cisne vs Granollers (-4.5) (Saturday, 1655 CET): Video Link
Alex Chan plays center back for Cisne and is their leading scorer
Update: Postponed due to positive COVID Test
D2F (France)
As Cannes Mandelieu vs Asul Vaulx en Velin (Saturday, 1800 CET): Video Link
The U.S. Team training in Denmark. How the U.S. might have fared at the 2021 World Championships.
Summary page of all USA news and commentary related to the 2021 IHF Men’s Handball World Championship: Link
A Missed Benchmarking Opportunity
Participation in a major handball tournament is often a point for further discussion. An opportunity to assess where a program currently stands and where it might be headed. Most definitely, the U.S. Men’s participation in a World Championships for the first time in 20 years would have been such an opportunity. Alas, due to multiple positive COVID test results such benchmarking didn’t get to take place. However, that doesn’t preclude me from providing some informed speculation as to what might have happened.
Projected Team USA Results (Assuming our Full Roster had been Available)
As someone who has seen almost every match the U.S. has played in the past two years I feel that I’ve a pretty good idea of what they were “capable” of achieving and I was really looking forward to the prospect of Team USA surprising the Handball world. I say “surprising” because the expectations of most people were pretty low based on past results that simply weren’t very relevant anymore. In particular, much was written about how Greenland had performed historically better in North American Championships, but such writeups also neglected to mention that the U.S. roster had recently added several accomplished dual citizens to its roster.
Overall, with these new roster additions, I would assess that the U.S. is roughly comparable now to a 2nd Division German Bundesliga team. A big part of this logic are two of those additions, Ian and Patrick Hueter, who both start for Dormagen, currently in 4th place in that league. If one substitutes the other positions at Dormagen with athletes like Drew Donlin (Leon) and Alex Chan (Cisne) who play in the Liga ASOBAL, Pál Merkovszki who plays in Hungary’s top division (Gyöngyösi KK) and Abou Fofana (Angers SCO) in France’s 2nd division, I essentially see another HBL 2 team, perhaps a bit further down in the standings. Further down because our wings and backups at other positions are playing for lower level clubs in Europe. Still some very capable players, but just a notch lower in talent.
And, while a middle of the pack, 2nd Division Germany team would have had little hope against teams like Norway and France, such a side would have done fine vs many of the teams in the President’s Cup. And, if the U.S. had played really well and gotten some luck, they could have even beat Austria, a side that might be comparable (with their 2 top backcourts missing) to an all star 2nd Division Bundesliga side. I’m not in any way saying such a victory would have happened, just that it wasn’t as crazy a proposition some people thought it was.
For a more detailed analysis of the U.S. 20 man roster check out this previous post: Link
Taking into account the relative strength of the U.S. roster and their would have been opponents here is my assessment of how likely each team would have won a head to head matchup
Preliminary Group E
USA (10%) vs Austria (90%)
USA (<1%) vs Norway (>99%)
USA (<1%) vs France (>99%)
President’s Group II
USA (60%) vs Morocco (40%)
USA (15%) vs Chile (85%)
USA (75%) vs S Korea (25%)
Placement Match (would have been one of the following)
For 25th: USA (10%) vs Tunisia (90%) or
For 27th: USA (60%) vs DR Congo (40%) or
For 29th: USA (40%) vs Angola (60%) or
For 31st: USA (win by forfeit) vs Cape Verde
Team USA Results (Assuming our Full Roster had NOT been Available)
It’s worth noting, that the U.S., according to press reports, briefly considered sending a significantly weaker roster to the World Championships after several players tested positive for COVID-19. This roster would have consisted of 12 players that had tested negative with the addition of 8 more athletes from the provisional roster that hadn’t been at the training camp.
I don’t know the exact composition of who would have been on this revamped roster, but U.S. Head Coach, Robert Hedin, is quoted as saying we didn’t have any defense. That could be interpreted in a number of ways, but I’ll interpret it to mean that it wasn’t clear who our goalkeeper would be and that most of our stable of 6’4″ plus defenders in the middle 4 positions would be unavailable.
While I respect the hard work and effort of all of the athletes on our 35 man provisional roster, there’s a considerable drop off in talent after the first 10 or so players. I would assess that a U.S. team missing several key players would not have won any matches and I suspect some of the losses could have been major blowouts in the 30 goal range. Again, it’s hard to say without seeing exactly who would have been available. But, keep in mind, that most, if not all of the 8 athletes that would have been added had not, due to the pandemic, even played handball for several months. Further, there probably would have been even more positive test results after the team arrived in Egypt that very likely would have resulted in a Cape Verde situation with limited athletes available and an eventual withdrawal from the tournament.
In short, it would have been a very bad look for a U.S. team returning to the world stage. I don’t know how everything was factored into the U.S. decision to withdraw, but this announcement does indicate that the U.S. would have been unable to field a competitive team prior to the first match vs Austria.
The USA Withdrawal Announcement
Benchmarking the USA Team
So, assuming that the U.S. had been able to send a full roster what would have been the overall assessment? Well, this largely becomes an assessment of how the U.S. would have performed in all of their matches. Using the expected win percentages of individual matches above here’s my qualitative assessment of how the U.S. might have fared overall:
Spectacular: Upset over Austria or Winning the President’s Cup; Further, surprisingly competitive matches against top teams like France and Norway.
Great: 3 wins (S Korea, Morocco and RD Congo) for 27th place
Average: 2 wins (S Korea and then either Morocco or Angola) for either 28th or 29th place
Disappointing: 1 win (S Korea) and 30th place
Disaster: No wins and 31st place only because Cape Verde had forfeited
There are so many variables and circumstances to consider here that it would be an increasingly speculative narrative to guess what might have happened. With that in mind, I’ll benchmark with what I think was the most likely outcome: 2 wins in the President’s Cup.
But narratively, there would have been a lot more to talk about than those 2 wins. I think the U.S. would have first performed respectively in the Preliminary Group, perhaps giving Austria a good match before a run of turnovers put the match out of reach. Against France and Norway there would never have been any doubt as to the outcome, but there would also been sequences of good play where folks watching the match would have said, “These Americans are competing. They’re making France/Norway work a little here.”
In the President’s Cup against teams with similar individual talent levels, there would have been more revelations especially with the U.S. picking up a couple of wins and showing further improvement and cohesiveness as a team.
By the end of the tournament, the consensus of most would be that this was a U.S. team that had shown they could play some real handball. Further, thanks to a relatively young roster and an Olympic Games in 2028, it was a side with strong potential for further improvement.
We’ll Never Know… but there’s a Point to this Speculation
Frustratingly, we’ll never know what would have actually happened. So, you might rightly argue what’s the point of this speculation?
Well, the point is that whether folks realize it or not some major decisions will need to be made in the not too distant future regarding the future direction of the U.S. Men’s National Team Program. These decisions will center around how to make the U.S. team more competitive and how much should be spent to make that happen.
And, what does the U.S. want to officially make happen? Well, according to the USA Team Handball Strategic Plan the U.S. wants to finish in the top 12 at the 2023 World Championships, qualify for the 2024 Olympics and finish in the top 6 at the 2028 Olympic Games: Link
Is that realistic? I’ve got my doubts: Link But, regardless if one is going to plan for the future you really, really need to benchmark where you currently stand first. How else can one even begin to project what “more” is needed if you don’t understand what you have?
It would have been far better to have the definitive benchmark of actual competition, but lacking that informed speculation is the next best thing.
So, it’s not perfect, but we’ve got an idea now of “what we have”. In part 2, I’ll address what’s needed to further improve the U.S. Men’s National Team.
You didn’t get a chance to see Alex Chan play for the U.S. at the World Championships, but you can see him in action with his club team later today.
The World Championships finished on Sunday, but there’s not much time to catch your breath as there is plenty of club action this week. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
American Athletes in Action
Liga Asobal
Cuenca (-5.5) vs Cisne (Tuesday, 2025 CET): Video Link
Alex Chan plays center back for Cisne and is their leading scorer
Leon vs Irun (Slight Favorite) (Wednesday, 1855 CET): Video Link
Drew Donlin plays circle runner and middle defense for Leon
Granollers (-2.5) vs Benidorm (Tuesday, 1855 CET) Video Link
Would you like to be informed as to when handball can be streamed online? If yes, follow Team Handball News on social media for updates like this as well as breaking alerts for unplanned opportunities like the free HBL matches that seem to pop up from time to time.
The biggest longshot winner of the tourney: All Star GK, Andreas Palicka at 17-1; But, if he had been listed, I wonder what Qatar’s Frankis Marzo would have gotten as top scorer?
Here’s a wrap up of the 2021 IHF Men’s Handball World Championships odds bet winners.
Preliminary Groups
Key
Green: Group Winner
Yellow: Qualified for Main Round
Red: Sent to the President’s Cup
Biggest positive surprise: Russia winning Group H at 7 to 1
Biggest negative surprises: Slovenia, Norway and Germany not winning their groups
Biggest “almost” surprises: Morocco, Angola and Chile almost qualified for the Main Round
No surprise: Most of the likely President’s Cup participants went to the President’s Cup. The only minor exception was Uruguay and they would have likely lost to Cape Verde if Cape Verde hadn’t had to withdraw due to too many positive COVID tests.
Main Round Groups
Key
Green: Group Winner
Yellow: Qualified for Quarterfinals
Red: Tournament over
Biggest positive surprises: Sweden winning Main Round Group IV and Qatar qualifying for the Quarterfinals
Biggest negative surprises: Slovenia, Croatia and Germany failing to make the Quarterfinals
Biggest “almost” surprise: Argentina almost qualifying for the Quarterfinals.
No surprise: Denmark and Spain easily winning their respective Groups.
To Win the Championship Odds
Key
Green: Champion
Tan: Runner Up
Yellow: Lost in Semifinals
Blue: Lost in Quarterfinals
Biggest positive surprises: Sweden finishing second
Biggest negative surprise: None really
Biggest “almost” surprise: Egypt almost beating Denmark to make the semifinals; and honorable mention: Hungary almost beating France.
No surprise: Pre-Tournament favorite Denmark taking the title.
MVP and All Star GK
No major surprise with Mikkel Hansen winning the MVP at 3 to 1 odds, but Andreas Palicka was a nice payday at 17 to 1. Hard to say for sure, but if Sweden won the title, Gottfridsson would have returned 30 to 1 and… there was no line for Palicka. Or, for a “field” bet which is kind of messed up, in my opininon
Top Scorer
And, why is not having a field bet messed up? Because, you never know what might happen. Frankis Marzo of Qatar led the competition in scoring with 58 goals and he wasn’t listed. One can only assume, if listed individually, he would have been around 200-1 or so.
Betting Picks
For the record here’s mine and Sharp Actions picks from the Final day. Not the best campaign for me, but don’t feel sorry for me. I jumped on the Sharp Action bandwagon and did alright for myself. I’ll have a full accounting of our betting action later in the week.
Pick #1: Hugo DESCAT Over 2.5 goals; (-147 or 1.68); Bet $100 to win $68; RESULT: Descat scored 7 goals; Win $68
Pick #2: Magnus LANDIN Over 2.5 goals (+110 or 2.10); Bet 100$ to win $110; RESULT: Landin scored 2 goals; Lose $100
Pick #3: Daniel PETTERSSON Over 1.5 goals (-200 or 1.5); Bet 100$ to win $50; RESULT: Pettersson scored 2 goals; Win $50
Pick #4: Lasse SVAN HANSEN Over 2.5 goals (-167 or 1.60); Bet $100 to win $60; RESULT: Svan Hansen was injured, saw limited action and scored 0 goals; Lose $100
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The 2021 Men’s World Handball Championship Final today. Live on ESPN+ at 11:30 AM (US ET)
All times are Egypt Local (CET is 1 hr behind; US ET is 7 hrs behind) Odds courtesy of Bet MGM
If you want to watch the matches that aren’t available on ESPN+ check this article for how to watch geo-blocked matches on YouTube: Link
Finals
Bronze Medal Match: 1530 France vs Spain (-1.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary (Paul Bray)
Gold Medal Match: 1830 Denmark (-2.5) vs Sweden (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary (Paul Bray)
Can the young, new look Sweden team keep surprising all the way to a title? Or, will the defending champions claim another title? We’ll soon find out.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve been doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me is, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
France vs Sweden; Alternate Handicap; France (-3.5) (+188 or 2.88); Bet 100 to win 188; RESULT: Sweden won 32-26; Lose $100
Sunday’s Pick:
Denmark vs Sweden; Denmark (-2.5) (-105 or 195); Bet 105 to win 100
This Sweden team has proven me (and others) wrong over and over during this tournament. Can, they do it yet one more time? I don’t think so. Denmark is a better, more experienced team. I’m also thinking Landin will do better than France’s 11% GK save rate in the Semifinal. But, I’m giving this Sweden some respect. I was tempted to take the -4.5 alternate handicap at +180 to get to on the plus side for the tourney, but I’ve seen enough now to believe this Sweden team is more than capable of keeping it close.
Pick #1: Hugo Descat; Over 2.5 goals (-118 or 1.85); Bet $100 to win $85; RESULT: Descat scored 5 goals; Win $85
Pick #2:Nedim Remili; Over 2.5 goals (-147 or 1.68); Bet $100 to win $85; RESULT: Remili scored 4 goals; Win $68
Pick #3:Spain to win (Draw- no bet) (+110 or 2.1); Bet $100 to win $110; RESULT: Spain lost to Denmark, 35-33; Lose $100
Sunday’s Picks
Spain vs France
Pick #1: Hugo DESCAT Over 2.5 goals; (-147 or 1.68); Bet $100 to win $68.
As we say in French, “on ne change pas une équipe qui gagne” or maybe as you Americans would, “keep going to the well until it runs dry.” I haven’t lost a single prop on Hugo Descat. The bookies are starting to adapt and his odds are far from where they were earlier in the tournament, but they’re still not a bad deal. As I’ve said before, he doesn’t need a lot of minutes to score a lot.
Denmark vs Sweden :
Pick #2: Magnus LANDIN Over 2.5 goals (+110 or 2.10); Bet 100$ to win $110
Pick #3: Daniel PETTERSSON Over 1.5 goals (-200 or 1.5); Bet 100$ to win $50
Pick #4: Lasse SVAN HANSEN Over 2.5 goals (-167 or 1.60); Bet $100 to win $60
For this match it’s very simple. I’m just taking every single line for any winger on either team that is set at 1.5 or 2.5 goals. With the quality these wingers have shown and the propensity both teams have to finish their attacks from the wing it just makes sense. And, of course both teams also have quite a few fast breaks. Both teams have real rockets on the wings, very technical, fast and accurate. You can almost call them 100 percenters.
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Semifinal World Championship Handball (Live on ESPN+)
All times are Egypt Local (CET is 1 hr behind; US ET is 7 hrs behind) Odds courtesy of Bet MGM
If you want to watch the matches that aren’t available on ESPN+ check this article for how to watch geo-blocked matches on YouTube: Link
Semifinals
1830 France (-1.5) vs Sweden (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary (Paul Bray)
2130 Denmark (Slight favorite) vs Spain (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary (Paul Bray)
It will be tough to match Wednesday’s quarter final drama with Egypt losing to Denmark in a penalty shootout and France needing Extra Time to take care of Hungary, but these 4 handball heavyweight should put on a good show.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
Denmark vs Egypt; Alt Handicap Denmark (-3.5) 1st half (+160 or 2.6); Bet $100 to win $160; RESULT: Denmark 16-13 at HT; Lose $100
Today’s Pick:
France vs Sweden; Alternate Handicap; France (-3.5) (+188 or 2.88); Bet 100 to win 188
It’s quite an accomplishment for this “new look” Sweden team to make it to the semifinals. But, the big match that did it for them wasn’t really the win vs Qatar. No, their big win of the tournament was their 24-23 upset victory over Egypt in the Preliminary Round. Winning that match allowed them to follow the easy path that Egypt was supposed to take to get to the Semifinals. But, now the easy path has come to dead end. Line up the French roster vs the Swedish roster and it’s abundantly clear. France is clearly better at every position except GK and right wing. And, France has faced much stiffer competition throughout the tournament as well. Of course, you never know when France will have an off game like they did vs Hungary where they went down 7-1 in the first 10 minutes. I think, however, this game will look a lot more like their 32-23 beat down of Portugal.
Pick #1: Spain vs Norway; Spain (+120 or 2.2) to win (including extra time/penalties); Bet $100 to win $120; RESULT: Spain won 31-26; Win $120
Pick #2: 2 leg parlay; Denmark vs Egypt and Tunisia vs Austria
Leg 1: Denmark to win (-345 or 1.29); Denmark won 39-38
Leg 2: Tunisia to win (-136 or 1.74); Tunisia won 37-33
Parlay odds: (+124 or 2.24); Bet $100 to win $124: RESULT: both legs won; Win $124
Pick #3: Denmark vs Egypt; Emil Jacobsen (over 2.5 goals) (-200 or 1.5); Bet $50 to win $25; RESULT: Jacobsen had just 1 goal; Lose $50
Pick #4: Denmark vs Egypt; Svan Hansen (Over 2.5 goals) (-167 or 1.6); Bet $50 to win $30: RESULT: Hansen scored 6 goals; Win $30
Today’s Picks
Pick #1: France vs Sweden
Hugo Descat; Over 2.5 goals (-118 or 1.85); Bet $100 to win $85
Once again I’m going with Descat, but this time the bookies didn’t make the mistake to set his line at + money. He’s very efficient from his wing and is also one of the 7 meters shooters. I don’t think he will need a lot of minutes to reach 3 goals just like we saw in the 2nd Half of the Portugal game where he scored 8 goals.
Pick #2: France vs Sweden
Nedim Remil; Over 2.5 goals (-147 or 1.68); Bet $100 to win $68
I think this is a low line for a long distance threat like Nedim REMILI, who will have to have a big role today. He plays as right back when Kentin MAHE is the playmaker, but like he often does with PSG, he will also play center back if Mahe is out, like he did in the match vs Hungary.
Pick #3: Spain vs Denmark
Spain to win (Draw- no bet) (+110 or 2.1); Bet $100 to win $110 (Note: if the match goes to Extra Time, the wager is returned)
I stand with my pre-tournament prediction of Spain to win it all. Like in the Norway game, I don’t think Los Hispanos should be the underdog here. They are simply a more complete team. Bottom line: This team has all the ingredients not only to play good handball, but also to win titles. Those two things may seem to be the same thing, but they are actually very different. And, that’s why Spain will win this match
Would you look like regular reminders of great handball web streaming options all season long? Quick alerts on matches that pop up on line?
Why not watch These 2 Huge Quarterfinals on Thursday. Even with Bonus English Language Commentary from me and Chris O’Reilly.
I haven’t written about “time shifting” in a while, but with 3 quarterfinal matches scheduled for the exact same time… There may never be a better time for handball fans to adopt this viewing strategy.
What’s Time Shifting?
Basically, it’s just a fancy way of saying watching something later instead of live. It’s certainly not rocket science, but honestly I’m a bit puzzled why more folks don’t do it. Basically, all you’re sacrificing is real time social media engagement. And, yes it actually is a bit of a sacrifice when you’re watching a match alone. Reading tweets and IG during the match and at halftime can create a fun “two screen” community experience.
But, with 3 matches all at the same time? It won’t be a two screen experience. No, it will be a 4 screen experience and that any pilot will tell you that is “task saturation.” Honestly, two matches at the same time is impossible for me… At least from a true enjoyment/engagement perspective. I typically end up spending 90% of my time on one match and occasionally glancing at the other during timeouts. Heck, I often even find myself psychologically happy when the other match is a blowout because I can say to myself, “Well, I’m not missing much.” But, tomorrow, I won’t be surprised if all 3 of those late matches are close. Surely, at least two of the three will be.
Don’t Worry. We Got You Covered
So here’s the game plan for the quarterfinals. Watch the 1st match between Denmark and Egypt which is on all by itself and then watch the Sweden-Qatar match live. Both of these will have English language commentary with Paul Bray. In the U.S. you can watch these matches on ESPN+. In the rest of the world you can watch them on the IHF Youtube channel. Depending on where you live though you might need to take some extra measures.
Then after you’ve watched those 2 matches live you can watch Norway-Spain and France-Hungary at your leisure. And, with the semifinals not taking place until Friday, you will have all of Thursday to watch.
Bonus English Language Commentary
As an additional bonus I’ll post some English language commentary for both of those matches. I’m doing the France-Hungary match while ehfTV commentator, Chris O’Reilly will do commentary for Norway-Spain. These commentaries will be on an MP3 file and I will provide instructions on how to synch up the English with the video here: Link
UPDATE: Here are Direct Links to the Video and Audio
1st Half (Set YouTube Clock to 8:00): 1st Half Mp3
2nd Half (Set YouTube Clock to 1:00:00): 2nd Half Mp3
Social Media Habits Die Hard
Of course, for maximum enjoyment you’ll want to watch oblivious to the final outcome. And, doing so can be real hard…But, just do it. Put down the phone. Trust me, you’ll be glad you did.
1st Half (Set YouTube Clock to 8:00): 1st Half Mp3
2nd Half (Set YouTube Clock to 1:00:00): 2nd Half Mp3
If you are bummed that 3 of the most important games of the year are being played at the same time you are not alone. Of course, that doesn’t mean you can’t just watch each match one at a time later. Nobody’s holding a gun at your head making you check the scores on social media either. What are you going to watch on Thursday anyway? To add to your experience we will also add some audio that you can synch up to the YouTube video. I will be doing commentary on the France – Hungary match and Chris O’Reilly will be providing commentary on the Spain – Norway match.
President’s Cup
31st Place Cape Verde vs S Korea (Cape Verde Forfeit)
29th Place 1830 Angola (-2.5) vs Morocco (YouTube)
27th Place 1600 DR Congo vs Chile (-5.5) (YouTube)
25th Place 1830 Tunisia (-1.5) vs Austria (YouTube)
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
Argentina vs Qatar; 1st half total (over 24.5) (+125 or 2.25); Bet $100 to win $125; RESULT: ARG led 13-12 at HT; Win $125
Today’s Pick:
Denmark vs Egypt; Alt Handicap Denmark (-3.5) 1st half (+160 or 2.6); Bet $100 to win $160
Egypt are the hosts, but Denmark is simply a much better team. Perhaps if this match was being played in front of a large crowd I would a little bit differently about Egypt’s chances. Regardless, this match is still being played in Egypt and Denmark will have extra incentive to build up a solid lead early which is why I’m going with the first half bet.
Pick #1: Denmark (+116 or 2.16) vs Croatia; Bet $200 to win $232; RESULT: Denmark won 38-26; Win $232
Pick #2: Argentina vs Qatar; Youssef Ben Ali over 2.5 goals (+105 or 2.05); Bet $100 to win $105: RESULT: Ben Ali had 3 goals; Win $105
Pick #3: Spain (-2.5) vs Hungary; (-148 or 1.68); Bet $100 to win $59.69; RESULT: Spain won 36-28; Win 59.69
Today’s Picks
Pick #1: Spain vs Norway; Spain (+120 or 2.2) to win (including extra time/penalties); Bet $100 to win $120
For Spain-Norway the odds opened as a 50-50, but they have since drifted in favor of Norway. I think it should be the other way, with Spain as the slight favorite and I’m happy to have the + money. I think Spain is more complete. They have a better defense and a better pair of keepers. They also have had the same core players for a long time now. They know each other, are well coached, and they’re not dependent on one player’s performance the way Norway is with Sagosen. I’ll go with the more complete team here to win.
Pick #2: 2 leg parlay; Denmark vs Egypt and Tunisia vs Austria
Leg 1: Denmark to win (-345 or 1.29)
Leg 2: Tunisia to win (-136 or 1.74)
Parlay odds: (+124 or 2.24); Bet $100 to win $124
I have a hard time seeing Denmark losing this match, but at -345 it’s a pretty steep “to win” price, hence I’m pairing it with Tunisia which is a slight favorite in their game vs Austria. From my vantage point the parlay turns Tunisia into a slight favorite and a good value play.
Pick #3: Denmark vs Egypt
Emil Jacobsen (over 2.5 goals) (-200 or 1.5); Bet $50 to win $25
Jacobsen has a very high percentage of goals / shots and Denmark is a team who unlike many others actually uses their wingers. Also he often is ends up as the scorer on many fast breaks.
Pick #4: Denmark vs Egypt
Svan Hansen (Over 2.5 goals) (-167 or 1.6); Bet $50 to win $30
Same explanation as Jacobsen above.
Would you look like regular reminders of great handball web streaming options all season long? Quick alerts on matches that pop up on line?
