In the coming weeks I will be posting some commentaries that will assess our current athlete talent pools and what steps should be taken to broaden and improve those talent pools. While it’s been a few years since my playing days those experiences are still fresh in my mind and very much shape my perspective. As such, here’s a look at my unremarkable handball career on the fringes of the U.S. National Team and how it’s relevant to our current national team talent pools.

Olympic Festivals: The Old Stepping Stone between Clubs and the National Team

There hasn’t been an Olympic Festival since 1995 so that means a lot of people either have no idea what they were or just an inkling that it was some sort of event where handball was played back in the day. While the latter is true it doesn’t quite do justice to how important Olympic Festivals were for both USA Team Handball and the athletes that played in them.

Basically, Olympic Festivals were like a mini Olympics for the U.S. with athletes representing teams from the North, South, East and West regions of the U.S. Pretty much every Olympic sport was played and then some. There was even a pretty decent opening ceremony with entertainment and an athlete march in to the stadium.

Aside from the pageantry they were 2 weeks long with a lot of training and matches. Rosters were 16 athletes and with 4 teams and 2 genders that was 128 athletes. And, it was entirely paid for by the U.S. Olympic Committee. That’s travel, room, board and attire for athletes, coaches and referees. That was quite a deal for NGBs like USA Team Handball.

And, Olympic Festivals were a really good deal for the participating athletes as they were a great opportunity to demonstrate your potential for national team consideration. Depending on the national team training/travel schedule the national team would participate so teams were typically a mixture of national team veterans, newcomers to the national team (often crossovers from other sports) and club athletes. So, if you thought you were national team material… you had 2 quality weeks of training and competition to demonstrate that.

Cut from an Olympic Festival Team and then Starting at the World Championships 20 Months Later… Never Let anyone Tell you that you’re not Good Enough

I’ve told this story more than a few times and it can be spun multiple ways. Here’s the persistence pays off, coaches don’t know jack, serendipity version.

After I graduated from the AF Academy in 1987 I was assigned to Edwards AFB in California and I played with the Condors club team that was then based in Ventura County. I used to make 4 hour round trips there for practices which seems crazy, but if you live in the middle of nowhere you get used to driving long distances. I was a solid club player and was selected for the 1989 and 1990 West Festival Teams. I did alright during the 89 festival and with the national team largely absent in 1990 I had my chance to really shine. I played pretty well in group play, but in the gold medal match I played a stinker of a game, missing several shots in a close match.

A year later when it came time for the 1991 tryouts I had premonition that maybe my handball career had played itself out. I was 26 years old and I had never been invited for a national team tryout. While I though I had potential and would do well given the opportunity, the powers that be clearly didn’t think so. And, my premonition was confirmed as I didn’t make the cut. I still remember driving home bitterly complaining of my non selection and at the same time contemplating what to do now that my Olympic dreams were over.

And, then a few months later I called up the Air Force Personnel Office to ask when, if ever, they were going to reassign me. At the time all personnel moves were on hold and I was expecting the same old, same old, “Sorry, maybe next year” response. Except this time, the response was, “Wait a second, what did you say your name was again?” followed by a shuffling of papers, and “Hey, you got orders to report to Peterson AFB in Colorado Springs in 45 days. You don’t know about this?”

Without knowing or requesting it the Air Force had decided to send me to where the national team residency program was. Not that I thought I would just show up and train with the national team, but it was nice to already know a few people where I was headed. Except that’s kind of what happened. The guys on the team said I should come to a practice and talk to the coach. Which I did. He was more than happy to have a decent, but not great athlete to round out the team. And, then I just kept coming to practice and getting a little bit better every day. And, over the course of 15 months I went from a warm body to practice against to starting on defense at the 1993 Handball World Championships.

A heartwarming story of perservance, serendipty and the reality that coaches that tell you that you’re not good enough don’t know what they are talking about. Just keep working hard and you’ll get there!

Every Athlete has a Ceiling: Here was Mine

Well, that’s one way to spin it. Certainly, it’s the way I’ll tell it after I’ve had a couple of beers. While persistence is usually an admirable trait and it’s funny how important a role luck sometimes plays in the twists and turns of life… the reality is that the coach who cut me made the right decision. Far removed from that day and having watched and evaluated dozens of national team athletes over the years it’s pretty obvious to me.

I was a hard working, determined athlete with decent skills, but with limited future potential. Don’t get me wrong… I was pretty good at some things. Defending on the 6 meter line in a 6-0 defense, directing traffic and blocking long range jump shots… I think I did that as good or better as anyone I ever played with. But, playing the middle in a 3-2-1 with more ground to cover side to side? Not so good; adequate at times, but brutally exposed against quicker, world class athletes. (Read how HBL MVP, Michael Kallman exposed me) And, that’s just on defense. On offense, I was a good circle runner for a U.S. club, but on a national team level I never really got there for a number of reasons.

Don’t get me wrong… I had gotten better practicing regularly for 1.5 years in a structured environment. Good enough to start on defense at a World Championship, but I had now come really, really close to my ceiling as a handball athlete. I just wasn’t going to get much better. I didn’t want to believe it at first, but I eventually came to that conclusion with a little help. While, I could have gotten out of the Air Force and stretched my career a little longer in all likelihood it was just a matter of time before more gifted athletes would have beaten me out.

Small Talent Pools and How they Warp Athlete Ceilings

So what’s the point of this trip down memory lane? Well, it’s to illustrate how the size of a talent pool can really warp athlete ceilings. This is because your ceiling as an athlete isn’t just dependent on improving your abilities as an athlete. No… you can greatly improve your chances of success simply by choosing to compete against a smaller talent pool.

This is something that EVERY stateside handball athlete knows. And, this is because as far as I know EVERY stateside handball athlete has crossovered to handball only after they’ve reached their ceiling in a previously chosen sport. Not most athletes… EVERY SINGLE ATHLETE. This ceiling comes at different times for different athletes. Sometimes during high school, sometimes post high school and sometimes post college. But, make no mistake that ceiling comes for every athlete. Some folks play handball just for fun, but many athletes also see the smaller talent pool and they also see opportunity. Opportunity to play at a national team level and maybe even go to an Olympics.

For the most part, there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s actually a great carrot to bring more people into the game. Because while some folks start out looking for Olympic glory and vanish as soon as they figure out they can’t get there, others fall in love with the sport, stick around and help grow the game.

Where it starts to become a concern, however, is when the overall quality of the athlete talent pool is simply too low to field a “competitive” team in international competition. A national team can still be “competitive” with a few athletes (like me on defense in 1993) with low ceilings playing complimentary roles. But, when the bulk of the roster is populated with athletes with limited potential and the team is not competitive it’s really problematic.

In the coming weeks I will take a closer look at that problem and what should be done to address it. I suspect in doing so I may upset a few people. So be it. Hopefully, at least a few may now understand that I also know firsthand what it’s like to be told that you’re not good enough…

With the 2021-24 Olympic Quadrennium now over for the USA Men here’s a review of the 2023 PANAM Games competition and a quick look ahead to the next Olympics

2023 PANAM Games Review

Group Play Results

• USA – Argentina 14-28 (10-11)
• USA – Cuba 30-28 (17-14)
• USA – Uruguay 34-30 (19-15)

The U.S. started their tournament with maybe their best half performance of the competition vs the eventual champions, Argentina. They even had a 3 goal lead with 6 minutes left in the 1st half before Argentina woke up to take a 10-11 lead at the half. Then, arguably the U.S. played their worst half of the tournament as Argentina outscored them 3-17 the rest of the way. Their match against NORCA rivals, Cuba was a really tight affair and Cuba even led 27-28 with 3.5 minutes to go before the U.S. closed out the match with a 3 goal run to win 30-28. The match against Uruguay was close most of the 1st half, but the U.S. broke out of a 13-13 tie with a 6-2 run to create a 4 goal gap that was the eventual margin for the final scoreline of 34-30. So overall, the U.S. lost to the big favorite, but took care of business against Cuba and Uruguay to advance to the semifinals

Knockout Phase

• Semifinal: USA – Brazil 27-40 (13-23)
• 3rd Place: USA – Chile 27-28 (13-15)

I didn’t get to see these matches due to the PANAM Sports Channel’s decision to broadcast other sporting events taking place at the PANAM Games. I’ve no idea how that decsion was made, but it was truly disappointing because unlike most of the other competitions handball had an Olympic Games slot on the line. Based on the scorelines and the stats the match against heavily favored Brazil went according to expectations while the match vs Chile exceeded expectations as the U.S. took host team Chile down to the wire apparently missing a shot in the closing seconds to tie the match.

Individual Athlete Statistics: Link

Here are a few notes on some individual performances:

Wings: Sam Hoddersen and Sean Corning both had solid, consistent performances throughout the tounament. And, Hoddersen’s 13 goals on 16 shots vs Cuba is probably up there on the list of all time USA wing performances in an individual match

Backcourt: The U.S. struggled at times to get consistent scoring from all 3 backcourt positions. In particular, Abou Fofana’s shooting accuracy seemed to be either be on or off. When he was “on” and scoring on jump shots from 9-10 meters at a high percentage it changed the whole complexion of the U.S. offense, freeing up scoring options on the wing, circle and breakthough goals for the other backcourt players. But, when he was “off” it had a reverse effect as the team struggled to score in a set offense. Ian Huter, had a typical solid performance quarterbacking the team at centerback and Joey Stromberg, given his first real opportunity for extended playing time also played well at times.

Circle Runners: The tandem of Drew Donlin and Domagoj Srsen did a solid job of anchoring the defense, but Donlin’s shooting percentage of 60% (15 of 25) was significantly lower than than his 88% at the WC. Conversely, Srsen, who normally just plays defense was 7 for 7.

Goalkeepers: Both Merkovsky and Otterstrom had their moments, but their save percentages were lower than their World Championship performances and with the 5 U.S. opponents at the PANAM Games being weaker than the opposition at the World Championship expectations would have seen those percentages improve a bit.

The Key Missing Player: Not having Alex Chan on the roster was a big loss for the U.S. I think if he had been available the matches vs Cuba and Uruguay would have been more comfortable wins and maybe one more experienced backcourt option would have put the U.S. over the top in the bronze medal match.

Overall Assessment

Overall, it’s hard to be displeased with a 4th place finish. After all, it’s the best USA Men’s finish since the 2003 PANAM Games when the U.S. finished 3rd. And, while it’s hard to compare different eras, the teams the U.S. faced back in 2003 weren’t nearly as strong as the teams are today as Argentina and Brazil were just starting to improve to the level of play they have had for the last decade or so.

But, make no mistake… the U.S. is not to the level of Argentina and Brazil. Just as they did at the 2023 World Championships, the U.S. showed that they can compete with top teams, but the team lacks the depth and consistency to do so for a full 60 minutes. Beating a top tier team is now possible, but it’s perhaps around a 1 in 15 probability.

Conversely, the U.S. demonstrated that they are a notch above Uruguay and Cuba. Those matches, particularly, the one vs Cuba were closer than I would like, but in crunch time we took care of business. We didn’t beat ourselves and that’s a key step towards beating better teams in future competitions.

Finally, taking a team like Chile down to the wire on their home floor is a positive sign and a confirmation that the USA Men belong in the next rung below teams like Argentina and Brazil. Chile has qualified for the past 7 Handball World Championships and prior to the PATHF split to NORCA and SCAHC and the expansion of the WC to 32 teams they were the target team that had to be beaten to qualify for a WC. We are now at that level. The USA, thanks to an IHF decision granting us wild cards, doesn’t need to qualify for the 2025 and 2027 World Championships, but we clearly belong now anyway,

Looking Ahead to LA 2028

While most handball nations are constantly preparing their handball teams for the next event the U.S. has traditionally been very focused on Olympic competition. There are a number reasons for this different focus, but it’s primarily due to the increased emphasis on the Olympics in our country and the accompanying support from our Olympic Committee. In simple terms are Olympic Committee doesn’t really care much as to what happens in other competitions.

With Paris 2024 qualification now an impossiblity the focus turns to 2028 and the guaranteeed Olympic qualification that comes with it. And, although it’s 5 years away, I’ll just slightly modify what I’ve been saying for the past couple of years.

What I’ve been saying: We already know around 70-80% of the athletes who will make up our roster at the 2028 Olympics

What I’m saying now: We already know around 95% of the athletes who will make up our roster at the 2028 Olympics

In 2019 I took an in depth look at our National Team (Part 1 Part 2) and I’ll hopefully/eventually get around to an update, but there are probably just around 25-30 athletes with realistic prospects of making a 2028 roster. Basically, it’s the athletes on the roster for the PANAM Games and 2023 Sr World Championshps and a handful of prospects from our Jr and Youth teams). And, for the most part it will be dual citizens who by happenstance have provided us with a golden generation by American standards. While there are plenty of athletes who have played either none or very little handball with the raw talent to become great players they don’t have the time and/or structure to realistically get to the level needed to beat out the athletes in our current talent pool.

While we have a solid group of athletes that will hopefully continue to improve I think it’s going to be challenging, however, to see a jump to the next level; to a team that can beat a top team like Argentina or Brazil 50% of the time. This is because our top athletes are just a rung lower in quality, we lack team depth and while we have some quality up and coming players there are not enough of them to do more than simply replace the attrition we’ll likely see as some of our athletes age out.

In terms of how well we’re likely to do at the 2028 Olympics we’re in for some tough competition. In all likelihood the weakest team we’ll face will be the Asian representative. In 2020 that was Bahrain. In 2024 it will be Japan. A team we could beat, but right now would be favored against us. And, then the rest would be Africa (Egypt?), Pan-America (Argentina or Brazil?) and the best European teams. To make a quarterfinal would likely require beating an Asian team and a top 10 team, probably from Europe. Can we do that? Anything is possible. But, I will say this with a high degree of confidence: We’ll compete. We won’t embarrass…and I won’t be shocked if we really push a top team to an upset or near upset. But, we could lose every match too.

There are multiple ways to look at this situation. On the one hand we all want to dream of the U.S. standing on the medal stand. But, on the other hand… most of us have seen U.S. teams that haven’t been very competitive. Qualifying for and winning games at the World Championships seemed like a real stretch not too long ago. Ask me ten years ago if I’d take our current team and its recent performances and I would have said, “Absolutely” with zero hesitation.

And, if you had told me that we would have such a team to cheer on without having to spend a penny on an artificial residency program that does nothing to develop the grass roots in this country… I would have been overcome with joy.

Yes, overall we should count our lucky stars that we are where we are with our Men’s program because while it maybe could be a little bit better it could be whole lot worse.

As the graphic indicates, since the 2019 PANAM Games the U.S. Women’s Sr National Team has not won a game in a major official competition. And, I’m not 100% sure, but I’m pretty sure we also haven’t won a friendly match either. Further, the scorelines have either been bad or downright ugly. We’re losing badly to peer nations (avg loss is 11 goals) in our hemisphere and getting totally clobbered (probably in the high 20s) by better competition. In short, over a two year period this has been the most uncompetitive team that the U.S. has ever fielded. The results starkly demonstrate this. It’s not even debatable.

A REALLY BIG DISCLAIMER

All that said, let me very clear about the following:

• I don’t blame the athletes. They’re doing the best that they can and most, if not all, have made ENORMOUS sacrifices to represent their country. And, often they are paying to do so out of their own pockets. We’re talking thousands of dollars.
• I don’t blame the “coaching” that the coaches have done. A coach works with the athletes they have to help them perform the best they possibly can. I’ve seen quite a few matches. As bad as things have been… they could’ve been worse. There were opportunities for things to go totally off the rails, but they’ve managed to keep the team fighing and competing under very challenging circumstances.

Management (or a Lack of Management) is the Issue

Of course, this situation is disappointing to anyone that cares about handball in the United States. For some old timers it’s hard to wrap their heads around the reality that the U.S. is so uncompetitive. That it’s commonplace now for the U.S. to lose badly to nations that we used to easily beat without even breaking a sweat. Others look at a clearly more competitive U.S. Men’s team and wonder why the U.S. Women can’t simply duplicate their success.

These top level assessments are pretty simplistic, but they do point to straightforward management strategies that have either worked in the past or are working today. (Well, “worked” to some extent.) Unfortunately, while the Keep it Simple, Stupid (KISS) strategy is often a smart way to go… it’s just not in this case. There are multiple reasons why the U.S. Women’s program can’t simply roll back the clock or copy the U.S. men’s “strategy.”

I won’t get into all of the management issues in this introduction. Quite frankly, there are just too many to capture in one post. This is a complex problem with a lot of moving parts. Heck, it’s not even easy to define what the “problem” is exactly. Sure, we want our Women’s team to perform better. But, what does “better” mean exactly? How much better? What’s the timeframe? And, at what cost?

And, that gets to the crux of the matter. As a close observer of all things handball in the U.S., if any of these questions were considered and defined it has been done so very quietly. Certainly, no plan or strategy has been publicly articulated. It’s one thing to watch our national team get beaten, but know it’s part of a structured plan to get better. It’s another thing to watch and get the sense that I’m watching a team thrown together by happenstance based on whoever happened to be available from our very, very small talent pool.

Burning Questions

So, I’m certainly not going to get to all the answers with this introduction, but I’ll try to identify some questions that need to be answered. Questions that I’ll address in follow-on posts.

• Partner Related Questions
  • Does the IHF have a minimum performance expectation for the U.S. Women’s team? (i.e. Would the IHF actually consider not awarding the U.S. a slot for the 2028 Olympics?)
  • What might the IHF contibute to improve U.S. National Team performance prospects?
  • Will the USOPC increase funding and support to impove U.S. National Team perfomance at a U.S. hosted Olympics?
• Philosophical Questions
  • Should the U.S. implement “quick fix” solutions to improve national team performance?
    • If so, how much funding and resources should be diverted from grass roots related efforts?
  • If the U.S. switches to a focus on talent transfer athletes who’ve never played handball how should it communicate this to current handball athletes that have made significant sacrifices?
• “Out of the Box” Questions
  • Could a reality style documentary help fund and support U.S. National Team efforts?
  • Does it make sense to have non USA Team Handball organizations address ways to improve U.S. National Team performance?
    • If so, how should these organizations coordinate with USA Team Handball and it’s partners like the IHF and USOPC?
• Dual Citizen Focus Questions
  • Why have efforts to find and recruit talented dual citizen handball athletes for the U.S. Women fallen way short of the U.S. Men?
  • How coud efforts related to dual citizen utilization be ramped up?
• Competitive Performance Related Questions
  • How do we best define performance levels or how “competitive” our national team is?
  • How do we best define the peformance level of individual athletes and their potential to improve over time?
  • What metrics should be used to quantify and assess performance?
  • Why is our currrent national team performing at it’s current level of competitiveness?
  • Given the current talent pool, how much can our team improve over time?
  • Given a group of high quality raw talent prospects what performance level could they achieve over time?
• Athlete Development Program Questions (Note: whether it’s called a residency program, development center, academy, or some other name this refers to any special effort to identify and train athletes for national teams.)
  • How successful can these programs be at identifying and training athletes to be national team athletes?
  • What types of athletes should be targeted?
  • How quickly can they bring athletes up to speed?
  • How much will these different programs cost?
  • Where should these programs be located?
  • How should these programs be managed?