Group play concluded this weekend with a few minor surprises. Notably, Valladolid’s 9 meter throw with one second left that gave them a draw vs Montpellier and a top seed in the round of 16.

A lot is at stake tomorrow and most of the teams are keeping quiet as to who they’d prefer to play. No sense in saying something to motivate the opposition. We don’t have to worry about that so here’s our assessment of the 16 remaining teams and where they stand relative to each other.

[b]The Powerhouses:[/b] These 4 sides are at the top of their game and will be huge favorites to advance no matter who they draw for the round of 16:

1) Portland San Antonio
2) Ciudad Real
3) Kiel
4) Flensburg

[b]The Second Tier:[/b] These 4 sides will likely be favored going into the next round, but they are beatable especially if they meet one of the members of the next category.

5) Kolding
6) Gummersbach
7) Barcelona
8 ) Valladolid

[b]Dangerous 2nd Seeds: [/b] These are the 4 teams that no one will want to see pulled out of the ping pong ball at the drawing on Tuesday. Montpellier and Celje have both won titles in the past. These teams are capable of an upset against the powerhouses and would battle the second tier teams evenly.

1) Celje
2) Montpellier
3) Veszprem
4) Chehovskie Medvedi

[b]Thanks for Participating, We Have some Lovely Parting Gifts: [/b] Reaching the Round of 16 is an accomplishment for these sides- Going farther in the Champions League will be a lot tougher. If matched up against one of the 4 Powerhouses, it would be a major upset for them to advance. If they draw a 2nd tier team they will have some hope, but even then they will be significant underdogs.

5) GOG Svendborg
6) Pick Szeged
7) Chambery
8 ) Gold Club Kozina

The draw is scheduled for 11:00 AM, Tuesday, 14 November. Drawings have been webcast previously, but the EHF site doesn’t indicate whether this one will be.

[b]Last Week[/b]
[i]Ciudad Real (-9.5)[/i] vs Pick Szeged Bet 200 on Ciudad Real at 1.72 (32-25) LOSE 200
[i]Kolding (-7.5) [/i]vs. Chambery Bet 100 on Kolding at 1.57 (32-32) LOSE 100
[i]Zagreb (+1.5)[/i] vs. Flensburg Bet 200 on Zagreb at 1.85 (21-23) LOSE 200
[i]Veszprem (-1.5)[/i] vs Portland San Antonio Bet 100 on Veszprem at 1.75 (23-21) WIN 75
Gain/Loss: -425 Euros

[b]Season[/b]
200 Euro Bets 4-4; -170
100 Euro Bets 4-4; -70
Current Bankroll: 760 Euros (Started with a 1000)

Back down to earth this week with a disappointing 1-3 performance last week. I still can't believe Chambery pulling out a draw at
Kolding with Vuckovick on the bench. I guess that's why they play the game on the court instead of on paper. The last weekend has some interesting matchups with qualifying and seeding both at stake. The picks are mine, but with some key advice from betting tipster Miguel.

[b]This Week's Picks[/b]

Odds courtesy of Nordicbet: www.nordicbet.com

Celje vs Gummersbach
This is the match of the weekend as first place and in all likelihood an easier round of 16 matchup is at stake. Celje is truly a tough
place to play, but I think Gummersbach is up to the task. The fast style of play they are using this year has them on the top of the standings in the German league. They might lose the match, but they will keep their aggregate 3 goal lead. Take Gummersbach and the 3.5 goals
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Gummersbach (+3.5 goals at 1.85)[/b]

Kadetten Schaufa vs Szeged
A true showdown between a Cinderella upstart and a traditional power from Hungary. Although, some would argue that Kadetten with several top Swiss players, Christian Rose from Germany and Martin Kovar from the Czech Republic is hardly a Cinderella. Kadetten also has the homecourt, but this is balanced out by the tradition and experience of Szeged, who is currently leading the Hungarian league. In my opinion it's a 50-50 toss-up, but since the books are giving Szeged an extra 1.5 goals, I'm going to take them.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Szeged (+1.5 goals at 1.85) [/b]

Chehovskie Medvedi vs Flensburg
Medvedi needs to tie or win to advance while this game has no bearing on Flensburg as they already have 1st place locked up. There's a lot of debate as to how Flensburg will play. Words off the court rarely have a real impact on the outcome of a match, but I think this game is an exception. Zagreb Coach Klajic's inflammatory comments insinuating that Flensburg wouldn't try very hard to win will come back to haunt him. Flensburg will start out with full motivation to win, but if Medvedi can extend the lead to 4 or 5 goals at some point in the match, chances are Flensburg will ease up a bit. Psychologically, under the surface, they are just not going to feel very bad about not being able to help out Zagreb.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Medvedi (+3.5 goals at 1.70)[/b]

Montpellier vs Valladolid
This match will decide who wins Group H. Montpellier played well last weekend against Bregenz without Hmam and Burdet and they
should be back for Valladolid. Valladolid managed a 9 goal win in the first match in Spain, but threw the aggregate tie breaker out the window with their draw against A1 Bregenz. This match will be close, but I expect Valladolid to fall behind by a couple of goals at some point in the second half. When they overcompensate with aggressive offensive play the game will turn into a fast break duel. Which is never a battle you want to fight at Rene Bougnol as Monpellier celebrates their 100th game in European competition. Add in the fact that Valladolid managed just a 1 goal win at home against 15th place Almeria in their midweek Asobal match and the signs point to Montpellier. Look for them to blow the game open at the end of the match and cover the 4.5 goals.
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Montpellier (-4.5 goals at 1.90)[/b]

Courtesy of NordicBet www.nordicbet.com here are the lines for week 6 of the Champions League. (Please note that some of these lines are preliminary and may not yet be officially posted at the Nordic Bet site)

Key to the betting line: Handicap, 1st Team Win, Draw, 2nd Team Win, 1st Team Handicap Price, 2nd Team Handicap Price

Need Help on Understanding European Betting Lines: Check this tutorial: https://teamhandballnews.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.15

Saturday, 11 November 2006
16:00 Ciudad Real vs Brest 11.5 1.01 19.20 16.00 1.70 2.00
16:15 Veszprem vs Sarajevo 9.5 1.01 19.00 16.00 1.70 2.00
16:15 Chehovskie Medvedi vs Flensburg 3.5 1.30 13.20 3.85 1.70 2.00
16:30 Barcelona vs Athens 14.5 1.01 19.00 16.00 1.85 1.85
17:00 Reykjavik vs Sandefjord DC 1.82 11.25 2.15 x x
17:15 Celje vs Gummersbach 3.5 1.38 12.25 3.35 1.85 1.85
18:00 Povazska vs Portland San Antonio DC 11.00 17.00 1.05 x x
18:00 Kadetten Schaffhau vs Szeged DC 1.60 11.50 2.50 x x
18:00 Yuzhny vs Bregenz 4.5 1.25 13.25 4.40 1.85 1.85

Sunday, 12 November 2006
10:30 Karvina vs Svendborg 3.0 2.95 12.00 1.43 1.90 1.80
14:15 Kolding vs Belgrade 10.5 1.03 18.00 13.00 1.70 2.00
17:00 Zagreb vs Skopje 8.5 1.01 19.20 16.00 1.65 2.10
17:15 Kozina vs Hammarby 4.0 1.22 14.00 4.70 1.85 1.85
19:00 Kiel vs Constanta 11.5 1.01 19.20 16.00 1.85 1.85
17:00 Montpellier vs Valladolid 4.5 1.30 12.75 3.90 1.90 1.80

Week 5 has concluded. Here’s a rundown on the scenarios that will determine who’s in, who’s out and who gets a top seed:

[b]GROUP A [/b]
W D L (GD) Points
1. Portland San Antonio 4 0 1 (40) 8
2. MKB Veszprém KC 4 0 1 (37) 8
3. RK "Bosna" Sarajevo 2 0 3 (-11) 4
4. MSK SIRS Povazska Bystr… 0 0 5 (-66) 0

Portland San Antonio lost in Veszprem by 2 this past weekend, but wins the aggregate tie breaker due to winning the first head to head match by 7. Both teams have qualified for the round of 16 and barring a huge upset loss next weekend Portland San Antonio will be in the first pot for the draw on 14 November.

[b]GROUP B[/b]
1. BM Ciudad Real 5 0 0 (34) 10
2. Kadetten Schaffhausen 2 1 2 (0) 5
3. SC Pick Szeged 2 1 2 (-1) 5
4. Brest HC Meshkov 0 0 5 (-33) 0

Ciudad Real has 1st place locked up. Schaffhausen pulled off the biggest surprise of the Champion’s League earlier this season with their away tie at Szeged and will seek to continue their Cinderella story when they host Szeged on Saturday. Schaffhausen – Szeged are level on points, so the winner of the match will advance to the round of 16. In the event of a tie Schaffhausen will also advance due to their 1 goal lead in the next tiebreaker that would apply (Goal Differential in all group games).

[b]GROUP C [/b]
1. KIF Kolding Elite A/S 4 1 0 (35) 9
2. Chambery Savoie HB 3 1 1 (9) 7
3. Crvena Zvezda Beograd 1 0 4 (-14) 2
4. Wisla Plock S.A. 1 0 4 (-30) 2

Despite playing without their leading scorer, Nenad Vuckovick, an inspired Chambery team pulled off an away tie at Kolding. This away tie and Wisla Plock’s loss propels Chambery into the round of 16. Kolding, due to its aggregate 6 goal advantage is guaranteed to finish 1st.

[b]GROUP D [/b]
1. SG Flensburg-Handewitt 5 0 0 (41) 10
2. Chehovskie Medvedi 3 0 2 (12) 6
3. RK Zagreb 2 0 3 4
4. RK Metalurg Skopje 0 0 5 (-50) 0

Flensburg took care of business on Saturday with an away win at Zagreb to guarantee a 1st place finish in the group. Zagreb must now hope that Flensburg will still play hard and win at Chehovski Medvedi on Saturday. If Medvedi wins or ties they will take the 2nd seed. If they lose Zagreb (assuming they take care of Skopje) will advance as they won the head to head aggregate vs Medvedi.

[b]GROUP E [/b]
1. THW Kiel 5 0 0 (58) 10
2. C.S. HCM Constanta 2 1 2 (-17) 5
3. GOG Svendborg TGI Gudme 2 0 3 (18) 4
4. HC Banik OKD Karvina 0 1 4 (-59) 1

Kiel has won the group and barring a colossal upset by Constanta vs Kiel on Sunday, Svendborg will control their own destiny when they play at Karvina, also on Sunday. A Svendborg win or tie will give them 2nd place. A loss will put Constanta in the round of 16.

[b]GROUP F [/b]
1. VfL Gummersbach 5 5 0 0 183 : 146 (37) 10
2. Celje Pivovarna Lasko 5 4 0 1 174 : 141 (33) 8
3. Sandefjord TIF 5 1 0 4 148 : 174 (-26) 2
4. Fram Reykjavik 5 0 0 5 135 : 179 (-44) 0

Gummersbach and Celje will both advance and 1st place will be decided on Saturday in Slovenia. Gummersbach won the first match by 3 so Celje will need to win by 3 to take 1st place. (Note: In the event of a 3 goal win by Celje, Celje will also advance due to the lead they will then have in the next applicable tiebreaker (Goal Differential in all Group Games). While they are currently behind by 4 goals, if they were to win by exactly 3, they will move ahead of Gummersbach, +36 to +34)

[b]GROUP G [/b]
1. FC Barcelona-Cifec 5 0 0 (43) 10
2. RK Gold Club Kozina 2 0 3 (-14) 4
3. Panellinios AC Athens 2 0 3 (-27) 4
4. Hammarby IF HB 1 0 4 (-2) 2

Barcelona has 1st place all wrapped up. 2nd place, however, is still in doubt. Athens is out of the picture unless they pull off a major upset in Barcelona. Which means 2nd will come down to the Gold Club Kozina – Hammarby match on Sunday. If Gold Club wins or ties they will advance on points. If Hammarby wins there will be a 3 way tie in points between Gold Club, Hammarby and Athens. The three way standings are currently

1. RK Gold Club Kozina 2 0 1 (+6) 4
2. Pannellinios AC Athens 2 0 2 (-12) 4
3. Hammarby IF HB 1 0 2 (+6) 2

The resulting 3 way tie would give Hammarby 2nd place due to the fact that they would move ahead of Gold Club on Goal Differential.

[b]GROUP H [/b]
1. CBM Valladolid 4 1 0 (35) 9
2. Montpellier HB 4 0 1 (29) 8
3. HC Portovik Yuzhny 1 0 4 (-26) 2
4. A1 Bregenz HB 0 1 4 (-38) 1

Valladolid and Montpellier will advance and 1st place will be decided on Sunday in Montpellier. Montpellier must win, while Valladolid will take 1st with a draw or a win.

[b]Projecting the Seeds[/b]
(Bold indicates teams that are mathematically locked in as a #1 or #2 Seed)

Top Seeds
[b]Ciudad Real
Kolding
Flensburg
Kiel
Barcelona[/b]
Portland San Antonio

#1 or #2 Seed
Gummersbach or Celje
Montpellier or Valladolid

Likely #2 Seeds
[b]Chambery [/b]
GOG Svendborg
Veszprem

Battle for #2 Seeds
Kadetten Schaffhausen or Pick Szeged
Zagreb or Chehovskie Medvedi
Hammarby or Gold Club Kozina

[b]Last Week[/b]
[i]Yuzhny (+4.5)[/i] vs Montpellier Bet 200 on Yuzhny at 1.85 (24-27) WIN 170
[i]Chehovskie Medvedi (-4.5) [/i]vs. Zagreb Bet 200 on Chehovskie Medvedi at 1.70 (29-24) WIN 140
[i]Svendborg (-4.5)[/i] vs. Constanta Bet 100 on Svendborg at 1.90 (33-17) WIN 90
Chambery vs. [i]Belgrade (+7.5)[/i] Bet 100 on Belgrade at 1.95 (34-28) WIN 95
Gain/Loss: +495 Euros

[b]Season[/b]
200 Euro Bets 4-2; +230
100 Euro Bets 3-3; -45
Current Bankroll: 1,185 Euros

Well, it’s always nice to go 4-0 and climb out of debt. However, I’ll chalk up at least part of this success to simple good fortune. I’m not ready to quit my day job just yet. Miguel and I have teamed up for this week. Let’s hope we can continue the lucky streak.

[b]This Week's Picks[/b]

Odds courtesy of bwin: www.bwin.com

Ciudad Real vs Pick Szeged
Real still has some injured players (Fis and Stefanson) but, Davis and Belaustegui have recovered. This Szeged squad isn’t as strong as last years. Evidence of this includes Kadetten Schaffhausen's draw and Ciudad Real's earlier 5 goal win in Hungary. The score for that game might have been worse, but the refs were a little bit more permissive than usual on defense. In Ciudad Real, the refs will rediscover that their whistles work and Ciudad Real will run up the score accordingly. 9.5 goals is a lot, but they should be able to do it.
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Ciudad Real (-9.5 goals at 1.72)[/b]

Kolding vs Chambery
Kolding has already beaten Chambery by 6 in France, so they should be able to do the same thing on their home floor. Kolding is in control of the group, and while there might be some danger of complacency I don’t think Chambery is currently capable of a strong road performance. Certainly their second half meltdown in Paris(13-13 at halftime, 31-23 loss at full time) in a key LNH match on Wednesday, doesn’t forecast any reason for a better performance in Denmark.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Kolding (-7.5 goals at 1.57) [/b]

Zagreb vs Flensburg
Flensburg is undefeated in Group D, but they have two tough matches ahead (this week at Zagreb and next week at Medvedi). Zagreb should be highly motivated to win and strengthen their hold on 2nd place in the group. While they can still qualify with a loss, they run the risk of Medvedi beating an unmotivated Flensburg (they will have 1st locked up) the following week. Add the fact, that Flensburg will have the tough task of playing in front of the Dom Sportova faithful and you have the makings of an upset.
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Zagreb (+1.5 goals at 1.85)[/b]

Veszprem vs Portland San Antonio
This match will decide 1st place for Group A. Portland San Antonio currently has a 7 goal lead against Veszprem on aggregate, but they are not at full strength with Kristian Kjelling out due to injury. And their away draw Wednesday night at 11th place Logrono is not a good sign. Nothing against this bottom of the table Spanish side, but I’d expect that Veszprem is more than just a little bit tougher place to play. Look for Portland San Antonio to hang on to its aggregate lead, but they should lose this match and lose by more than a goal and a half.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Veszprem (-1.5 goals at 1.75)[/b]

The EHF website recently released an interview with the EHF President discussing the current impasse between the IHF and EHF: http://home.eurohandball.com/ehf_files/ehf_news/sr_IHFINTERVIEW/default.htm

The controversy stems from the IHF’s proposal to reorganize qualification for the World Championships, as well as the development of a new World League for Clubs: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?item.124
http://www.ihf.info/front_content.php?idcat=132&idart=383

Apparently, I’m not the only one to have rhetorically wondered about the feasibility of a World League for Clubs. Here’s some commentary from the Editors of French Magazine, HandAction:

G14, New Champions League, World League, What’s Next?

Fallacies abound in the Handball world. A proposed competition of clubs from the 4 continents, a so-called World League is the latest imagined proposal of the IHF and which, according to some of our sources, is even planned for inauguration in time for the 2007-2008 Season. The competition would be divided into several zones:: two tournaments in the Pan-American region: Sao Paulo (Brazil) and Buenos Aires (Argentina), one in Africa (Tunis), one in Asia (Korea or Japan) and finally a European mini-league. In June 2008, eight teams representing the four geographical areas, would participate in a mini-tournament of two pools of 4 teams. Miquel Roca, treasurer of the IHF and former President of the Association of the Spanish clubs (Asobal), is reportedly one of the instigators of this new competition in spite of his own denials. Whereas Handball aspires to more media credibility, this appears to be and irrational concept. Ciudad Real vs River Plate and Montpellier vs El Ahly in the quarterfinals, sound like a dream doesn’t it?

"To travel to other continents to play lower level teams doesn’t appear to make much sense,” according to Robert Molines, the president of Montpellier Handball, who indicated that he is “vaguely familiar” with the subject. “I haven’t discussed this yet with Roca and I just recently found out he had left the ASOBAL. There are a couple of other developments that will also need to be considered. These are the G14, a grouping of 14 top European Clubs to defend club interests as well as the reformatting of the Champions League in 2007 to include 2 phases of pool play before the semifinals.”

Without a doubt, the idea of a World League, is a vast illusion at this point in time, when you consider that the EHF and top European Clubs also have their differences.

Original Text (in French)

G14, nouvelle Ligue des Champions, Ligue mondiale… et puis quoi encore?

L’hérésie libérale gagne également le handball… Une compétition mettant aux prises des équipes de quatre continents, voici ce que serait la Ligue mondiale, dernière imagination de certaines éminences grises de la Fédération internationale (IHF) et qui, selon certaines de nos sources, rêveraient de l’inaugurer pour la saison 2007-2008 ! Cette épreuve se répartirait en plusieurs zones mondiales : deux tournois entres les pays américains a Sao Paulo (Brésil) et Buenos Aires (Argentine), un en Afrique (à Tunis), un en Asie (en Corée ou au Japon) et enfin une mini-ligue européenne regroupant deux poules en juin 2008 avec la participation de huit équipes représentant les quatre zones géographiques. Miquel Roca, trésorier de l’IHF et démissionnaire de la présidence de l’Association des clubs espagnols (Asobal) est considéré comme l’un des instigateurs de cette novelle compétition malgré ses propres dénégations. Alors que le handball aspire à plus de crédibilité médiatique, on rentre ici dans les sphères de l’irrationnel. Ciudad Real/River Plate et Montpellier face à El Ahly en quarts de finale, ca vous ferrait rêver, vous ? « Traverser les continents pour jouer des équipes de bs niveau, cela n’a pas de sens », nous a répondu illico Robert Molines, le président du Montpellier Handball qui a « vaguement entendu parler »du sujet. « Je n’arrive plus à joindre Roca. J’ai juste appris qu’il était parti de la Asobal. Il ya a, en revanche, deux choses que avancent, ce sont le G14, un regroupement des meilleurs clubs européens qui permettra de mieux défendre nos intérêts, ainsi que la réforme de la Ligue des Champions pour 2007 avec 32 équipes et deux phases de poule avant les demi-finales. » Incontestablement, l’idée d’une Ligue mondiale est à ce jour une vaste illusion au moment où l’EHF et l’Association des clubs européens commencent à peine à s’entendre.

Week 4 has concluded and here’s an update on who’s in, who’s out, and who’s hanging on.

Group A: Portland San Antonio and Vezsprem will advance, but the top seed is still undecided. Portland San Antonio has a 7 goal advantage, but Veszprem hosts the return leg.

Group B: Ciudad is in control and on their way to a 6-0 record. Kadetten Schaffhausen’s is in the driver’s seat to take 2nd place after securing an away draw at Hungary’s Pick Szeged. For Pick to advance they will likely need to beat Kadetten Schaffhausen in Switzerland.

Group C: Kolding should win the Group and Chambery appears to have the inside track to 2nd place. As they have been hot and cold, though, I wouldn’t be surprised for Wisla Plock to beat Chambery when they host them in November. As the Group play tiebrakers are head to head competition and then head to head goal differential 2nd place will likely come down to the Plock-Chambery aggregate, meaning that Plock will need to win by 9. Advantage- Chambery, but not out of the question for Plock

Group D: I’m going to backtrack a little on my earlier analysis. In losing by only 5 goals to Medvedi on Saturday, Zagreb did secure the head to head advantage against Medvedi. Medvedi, however, still controls their own destiny. If Zagreb loses to Flensburg in week 5, Medvedi can still advance with a win or tie against Flensburg in week 6. If Zagreb beats Flensburg, Medvedi can advance if they also beat Flensburg by 3 goals more than Zagreb did the previous week. As Skopje will probably lose every match the tiebreaker for a 3 way tie is points, followed by Goal Differential in the matches involving all 3 teams. Currently, those standings look like this.

Flensburg: 2 wins; 0 losses; +12 Goal Differential
Zagreb: 1 win; 2 losses; -5 Goal Differential
Medvedi: 1 win; 2 loses; – 7 Goal Differential

Group E: Kiel has this group wrapped up and should finish with a 6-0 record. GOG Svendborg should take 2nd as their 16 goal win against Constanta on Sunday gives them the head to head aggregate should they tie for 2nd.

Group F: Gummersbach and Celje will advance. Gummersbach won the first leg match against Celje by 3, but the 2nd match is in Slovenia. This is a toss-up as far as I’m concerned.

Group G: Barcelona is in control and appears to be headed to a 6-0 finish. 2nd place should be a showdown between Gold Club Kozina and Hammarby. Hammarby will likely need to win at Kozina in week 6 to advance.

Group H: Montpellier should be sending complimentary wine to A1 Bregenz thanking them for their draw on Saturday vs Valladolid. For the second year in a row (last year they upset Madgeburg) it appears that this Austrian Club has pulled off an unexpected result to give Montpellier a top seed. Now instead of having to turn around a 9 goal aggregate deficit against Valladolid all they have to do now is simply beat them at home.

Note: The Champions League and most National leagues are off next week as National Team competition takes center stage. Week 5 will start with the Thursday matches on 2 November.

Projecting the Seeds

Likely # 1 Seeds
Ciudad Real
Kolding
Flensburg
Kiel
Barcelona
Montpellier

#1 or #2 Seeds (aggregate will decide)
Portland San Antonio or Veszprem
Gummersbach or Celje

Likely #2 Seeds
GOG Svendborg
Valladolid

Battle for #2 Seeds
Kadetten Schaffhausen or Pick Szeged
Chambery or Wisla Plock
Zagreb or Chehovskie Medvedi
Hammarby or Gold Club Kozina

[b]Last Week[/b]
Brest HC Meshkov vs [i]BM Ciudad Real (-7.5)[/i] Bet 200 on Ciudad Real at 1.85 (27-34) LOSE 200
RK "Bosna" Sarajevo vs [i]MKB Veszprém (-4.5)[/i] Bet 200 on Veszprem at 1.85 (25-31) WIN 170
[i]Chambery Savoie (-6.5)[/i] HB vs Wisla Plock S.A. Bet 100 on Wisla Plock at 1.85 (21-13) LOSE 100
[i]Crvena Zvezda Beograd (+5.5)[/i] vs KIF Kolding Elite A/S Bet 100 on Beograd at 1.85 (30-36) LOSE 100
Gain/Loss: -230 Euros

[b]Season[/b]
200 Euro Bets 2-2; -80
100 Euro Bets 1-3; -230
Current Bankroll: 690 Euros

Miguel had some tough losses last week, particularly Ciudad Real which let a 10 goal halftime lead evaporate into half goal handicap loss. I’m filling in this week, while he licks his wounds.

[b]This Week's Picks[/b]

Yuzhny vs Montpellier
You can call this match my “Ramadan” special. Montpellier now has 4 Arabic players from Tunisia. Wissem Hmam is a tremendous force, but with match time commencing at 17:00 CET, the effects of fasting could have a huge impact on his endurance, particularly in the 2nd half. The same goes for Issam Tej who is a force on defense. Couple this factor with the challenge of traveling to and playing in Ukraine and we could have the makings of an outright upset. Take Yuzhny and the 4.5 goals
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Yuzhny (+4.5 goals at 1.85)[/b]

Chehovskie Medvedi vs. Zagreb
I saw the tape of Chehovskie Medvedi against Flensburg last week and was very impressed with their performance. They were leading at halftime by 4 and if they had been able to finish their wide open shots in the 2nd half they might very well have come away with a difficult road victory in Germany. This match could very well decide who will take 2nd place in the group and they lost by 7 to Zagreb in the first match. Look for them to do everything possible to turn this match into an 8 goal victory. And if they play like they did at Flensburg they will do it.
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Chehovskie Medvedi (-4.5 goals at 1.70)[/b]

Svendborg vs. Constanta
I was not impressed with Constanta’s blow out loss to Kiel last week. Svendborg is a better team and they will pull out all the stops to win by 6 in Denmark and take the lead in head to head aggregate.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Svendborg (-4.5 goals at 1.90)[/b]

Chambery vs. Belgrade
Will the “hot” or “cold” Chambery team show up to play tonight? My guess is that the cold version will play tonight resulting in another close game with Belgrade.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Belgrade (+7.5 goals at 1.95)[/b]

Courtesy of NordicBet www.nordicbet.com here are the lines for week 4 of the Champions League. (Please note that some of these lines are preliminary and may not yet be officially posted at the Nordic Bet site)

Key to the betting line: Handicap, 1st Team Win, Draw, 2nd Team Win, 1st Team Handicap Price, 2nd Team Handicap Price
Need Help on Understanding European Betting Lines: Check this tutorial: https://teamhandballnews.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.15

Saturday, 21 October 2006
16:00 – Fram Reykjavik vs Celje 8.5 13.00 18.00 1.03 1.95 1.75
16:15 – Pick Szeged vs Brest 7.5 1.03 18.00 13.00 1.80 1.90
17:00 – Hammarby vs FC Barcelona 4.5 5.05 13.60 1.20 1.90 1.80
17:00 – Chehovskie Medvedi vs RK Zagreb 4.5 1.22 13.00 4.80 1,70 2,00
17:30 – MSK SIRS Povazska vs Veszprém KC 10.5 12.75 18.00 1.03 1.85 1.85
18:00 – Yuzhny vs Montpellier 4.5 5.10 13.50 1.20 1.85 1.85
18:00 – Kadetten Schaffhau… vs BM Ciudad Real 6.5 7.00 15.00 1.12 1.80 1.90
18:30 – Kozina vs Athens 8.5 1.03 18.00 12.90 1.75 1.95
18:55 – Sandefjord vs VfL Gummersbach 7.5 11.00 17.00 1.05 1.95 1.75
19:00 – Chambery vs Belgrade 7.5 1.03 18.00 12.80 1.75 1.95
20:15 – A1 Bregenz vs CBM Valladolid 5.5 5.40 14.00 1.18 1.90 1.80

Sunday, 22 October 2006
10:30 – Karvina vs THW Kiel 9.5 11.0 17.0 1.05 2.0 1.72
16:20 – GOG Svendborg vs Constanta 4.5 1.25 13.0 4.4 1.90 1.80
18:00 – Portland San Antonio vs Sarajevo 12.5 1.01 19.0 18.0 1.80 1.90

Week 3 has concluded and every team has now played everyone else in their group. For the most part, the groups appear to have played out as I predicted in July: https://teamhandballnews.com/news.php?extend.121 The big surprises have been Kadetten Schaffhausen and Constanta.

Essentially the 8 groups can be divided into 2 categories

[b]Category 1: The top seed is all but decided; 2 teams are in a dog fight for 2nd place[/b]

5 Groups fall into this Category (Groups B, C, D, E, and G). Here’s some short analysis on each of these Groups

Group B: No need to write with a pencil here- Ciudad Real will win this group and probably with a 6-0 record. The big surprise here though is that Switzerland’s Kadetten Schaffhausen’s is in the driver’s seat to take 2nd place after securing an away draw at Hungary’s Pick Szeged. For Pick to advance they will likely need to Kadetten Schaffhausen in Switzerland.

Group C: Kolding is on track to win the Group and Chambery appears to have turned things around in time to avoid an early exit to their Champions League season. As they have been hot and cold, though, I wouldn’t be surprised for Wisla Plock to beat Chambery when they host them in November. As the Group play tiebrakers are head to head competition and then head to head goal differential 2nd place will likely come down to the Plock-Chambery aggregate, meaning that Plock will need to win by 9. Advantage- Chambery, but not out of the question for Plock

Group D: Flensburg will have two tough matches on the road (Zagreb and Chehovskie Medvedi), but they won’t lose both matches and they should keep a head to head goal differential lead against either team. 2nd place will likely come down to the Medvedi-Zagreb match next week. Zagreb currently has a 7 goal aggregate lead and will seek to maintain it.

Group E: Kiel was this group wrapped up and should finish with a 6-0 record. 4th seeded Constanta surprised 2nd seeded GOG Svendborg, beating them by 5 goals at home and is currently in 2nd place. They will try and keep this aggregate lead when they travel to Denmark this weekend.

Group G: Barcelona is in control. They may have a challenging match on the road at Sweden’s Hammarby, but they will still finish 1st. 2nd place, however, is totally up for grabs as 3 teams are tied at 2 points. Athens surprised Slovenia’s Gold Club Kozina, but I really don’t see Athens having a chance to advance. Still this upset victory over Kozina, helps Hammarby’s cause. Having lost to Kozina at home, Hammarby would normally have to win the return match in Slovenia and beat the 4 goal aggregate. Kozina’s loss to Athens means that Hammarby could only need a draw when they play at Kozina.

[b]Category 2: The Top 2 Seeds Have Been Determined, but Who Will Get the Top Seed[/b]

Groups A, F, and H fall into this category. In the round of 16, being a number 1 seed has two main benefits. The first benefit is getting a match up against a number 2 seed. This doesn’t guarantee an easy pairing in the round of 16, but your odds are certainly better. The second benefit is hosting the return leg of the 2 game contest as it’s always nice to know how much you need to win by in front of your home crowd.

Group A: Portland San Antonio has a 7 goal advantage, but Veszprem hosts the return leg. This is probably enough of an advantage for Portland San Antonio, though.

Group F: Gummersbach won the first leg by 3, but the 2nd match against Celje is in Slovenia. This is a toss-up as far as I’m concerned

Group H: Valladolid beat Montpellier by 9 this past weekend, so you might think that this is a safe lead. Having seen Montpellier rout top teams in Europe at Stade Rene Bougnol, however, I know better. Advantage Valladolid, but anything can happen.

Likely # 1 Seeds
Ciudad Real
Kolding
Flensburg
Kiel
Barcelona

#1 or #2 Seeds
Portland San Antonio or Veszprem
Gummersbach or Celje
Valladolid or Montpellier

#2 Seeds
Kadetten Schaffhause or Pick Szeged
Chambery or Wisla Plock
Zagreb or Chehovskie Medvedi
Constanta or GOG Svendborg
Hammarby or Gold Club Kozina

[b]Last Week[/b]
[i]Barcelona (-7.5)[/i] vs Hammarby Bet 200 at 1.75; (33-28) LOSE 200
Constanta vs [i]GOG Svendborg (+2.5)[/i] Bet 100 at 1.90 (33-28) LOSE 100
[i]Montpellier (-8.5)[/i] vs Yuzhny Bet 100 at 1.70; (26-16); WIN 70
[i]Valladollid (-10.5)[/i] vs A1 Bregenz Bet 200 at 1.75; (35-24); WIN 150
Gain/Loss: -80 Euros

[b]Season[/b]
200 Euro Bets 1-1; -50
100 Euro Bets 1-1; -30
Current Bankroll: 920 Euros

[b]This Week’s Picks[/b]

Brest HC Meshkov vs BM Ciudad Real
Ciudad Real had an easy victory on Wednesday against Torrevieja (32-22). Despite the fact that they have Zorman, Fis, an injured Davis, and Dujshebaev- 38, who is not in the best shape, I don’t think Meshkov has a chance. Even though they play at home, they have lost by 10 against Schaffhausen and by 6 against Pick Szeged, so those are not good background factors when facing the best squad in Europe, as Ciudad Real is.
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Ciudad Real (-7.5 goals at 1.85)[/b]

RK "Bosna" Sarajevo vs MKB Veszprém
Bosna Sarajevo made it difficult for Portland San Antonio last weekend when they reached the halftime ahead by 1. Veszprem is one of the best teams in Europe and with Lazarov scoring 14 goals last weekend, he is probably the best right back at the moment. I don’t think Bosna Sarajevo's performance will mirror last weekend so Veszprem should win by more than 4 goals.
[b]BET: 200 Euros on Veszprem (-4.5 goals at 1.85)[/b]

Chambery Savoie HB vs Wisla Plock S.A.
This is a misleading match; Wisla Plock is not as bad as they seemed in Kolding when they lost 35-18 and Chambery had a bit of luck in Serbia. There is not much difference between both teams and they should fight for second place of the group, making it an interesting game. If the rising star Vuckovic plays as he did in Beograd last weekend, that will be a great step for Chambery. However, I predict a tight game, probably a home victory but not by more than 6 goals.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Wisla Plock (+6.5 goals at 1.85)[/b]

Crvena Zvezda Beograd vs KIF Kolding Elite A/S
The atmosphere in Beograd is Kolding’s toughest enemy. I believe that Kolding can go far this season in champions league. They probably have their best team ever, however playing in Beograd is never easy. The young "red stars" were so close to defeat Chambery last weekend (26-27, missing 4 7m included) and they know it's their last chance to have a remote possibility of going through to the next round. I think Kolding will win, but that it won’t be that easy. Take Belgrade and the 5.5 goals.
[b]BET: 100 Euros on Crvena Zvezda Beograd (+5.5 at 1.85)[/b]

Courtesy of NordicBet www.nordicbet.com here are the lines for week 3 of the Champions League. (Please note that some of these lines are preliminary and may not yet be officially posted at the Nordic Bet site)

Key to the betting line: Handicap, 1st Team Win, Draw, 2nd Team Win, 1st Team Handicap Price, 2nd Team Handicap Price
Need Help on Understanding European Betting Lines: Check this tutorial: https://teamhandballnews.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.15

Thursday, 12 October 2006
18:45 SG Flensburg-Handewitt vs Chehovskie Medvedi 5.5 1.15 13.5 5.9 1.85 1.85
20:30 VfL Gummersbach vs Celje Pivovarna Lasko 3.5 1.33 12.5 3.6 1.75 1.95

Saturday, 14 October 2006
16:00 Panellinios AC Athens vs FC Barcelona-Cifec 6.5 12.00 17.00 1.05 2.10 1.65
16:15 SC Pick Szeged vs Kadetten Schaffhausen 6.5 1.08 16.00 8.80 1.85 1.85
17:00 Hammarby IF HB vs RK Gold Club Kozina 4.5 1.20 13.50 4.80 1.75 1.95
17:15 RK Metalurg Skopje vs RK Zagreb 3.5 4.40 13.00 1.25 2.00 1.70
18:55 Sandefjord TIF vs Fram Reykjavik 3.5 1.30 12.75 3.75 1.75 1.95
20:00 CBM Valladolid vs Montpellier HB 3.5 1.38 12.25 3.35 1.85 1.85
20:15 A1 Bregenz HB vs HC Portovik Yuzhny 3.5 1.35 12.50 3.40 1.85 1.85
20:15 C.S. HCM Constanta vs THW Kiel 3.5 3.90 13.00 1.30 1.95 1.75

Sunday, 15 October 2006
16:00 Brest HC Meshkov vs BM Ciudad Real 7.5 7.70 15.50 1.10 1.85 1.85
16:15 RK "Bosna" Sarajevo vs MKB Veszprém KC 4.5 4.10 12.75 1.28 1.85 1.85
16:20 GOG Svendborg TGI Gudme vs HC Banik OKD Karvina 4.5 1.18 14.00 5.40 1.75 1.95
17:00 Chambery Savoie HB vs Wisla Plock S.A. 6.5 1.12 15.00 6.40 1.85 1.85
18:00 Portland San Antonio vs MSK SIRS Povazska Bystrica 15.5 1.01 19.00 27.00 1.85 1.85
19:00 Crvena Zvezda Beograd vs KIF Kolding Elite A/S 5.5 5.40 14.00 1.18 1.85 1.85

When Chambery lost at home to Kolding by 6 goals the first weekend I said it would be gut check time. When they then lost a midweek game to Tremblay (11th place last year) in the French League, I figured it was double gut check time. And when they ended the first half at Red Star Belgrade losing 14-9, it looked like their hopes for making the round of 16 was in total jeopardy. Then they woke up and outscored the host Serbs 18-12 in the 2nd half to eke out a 27-26 victory. And I do mean eke out. Their Serbian goalie Nebojsa Stojinovic stopped a penalty shot with 10 seconds left to preserve a one point victory and 2 points in Group C. In all, it was a good day for the Serbs playing for Chambery as their captain Nenad Vuckovic netted 13 of Chambery’s 27 goals. Perhaps being Serbs, they were fully prepared for the hostile atmosphere of playing in Belgrade. The small gym was not a sell-out, but one section of the gym was one of the most vocal and animated crowds I’ve ever observed. They stood the entire match and chanted loudly and gestured throughout. God help a team coming to Belgrade if they could ever get the entire crowd to react like that section.

As a side note, the Chambery-Red Star Belgrade match drew a lot of one sided betting action on Chambery. Many pundits were puzzled to see the semi-professional Belgrade team favored to beat the 2nd best team in France, especially after Red Star was blitzed by 12 goals against Poland’s Wisla Plock the week before. The bookmakers, however, were equally not impressed by Chambery’s losses to Kolding and Tremblay and started the line with Chambery as an almost 2-1 underdog. Money poured in on Chambery and the line moved to “even money” before it was pulled off the board. Apparently, the bookies were pretty exposed with one sided betting on Chambery and didn’t want to take any more bets. I’m guessing Stojinovic’s penalty shot stop with 10 seconds left had a lot of Chambery bettors breathing a sigh of relief.