Two great matches today as the Handball World Championships really get going.
All times are Egypt Local (CET is 1 hr behind; US ET is 7 hrs behind) Odds courtesy of Bet MGM
NOTE: Breaking News: ESPN+ will be airing two matches/day for the remainder of the tournament.
If you want to watch the matches that aren’t available on ESPN+ check this article for how to watch geo-blocked matches on YouTube: Link
Group E
1900 Austria vs Switzerland (-1.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Norway (-1.5) vs France (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
The first match would have been Austria vs Team USA (sigh). The second match is the match of the day; Maybe the match of the entire preliminary round. France played Serbia twice in Euro 2020 qualification, losing the first match 27-24 and drawing the second 26-26. Both matches, needless to say were lackluster performances. Will they wake up for this showdown vs Norway?
Algeria and Morocco play in a match that will likely decides who advances to the Main Round. Portugal and Iceland play for the 3rd time in just 9 days as by coincidence they are also in the same Euro 2022 Qualification Group. Portugal won the first match in Portugal 26-24 while Iceland won the return leg 32-23. Iceland was actually down 12-13 at the half, but dominated the 2nd half by a 20-10 score. Can this momentum carry over for this third match?
Egypt won their opening match over Chile yesterday. Sweden and N Macedonia look to join them with 2 points. N Macedonia’s late entry means that 40 year old Kiril Lazarov will get the opportunity to play in 2 World Championships hosted by Egypt. Yes, he was there for the 1999 edition, I wonder how many retired players feel a little bit younger when they see him play and realize there’s still somebody around that they can say, “Yeah, I played against him.”
Belarus and Russia clash in a match with no political ramifications. Slovenia should have no problem with S. Korea especially now that I’ve just found out that they’ve sent their B Team to the World Championships.
Croatia: Runners Up at the 2020 Euros they are my pick to win the title. They looked solid last week vs Spain, a 31-28 victory, despite missing some key players who should be back in time for the Main Round.
The 2021 IHF Men’s World Championships start today (Wednesday, 13 January) in Egypt. Here’s some info on how to watch, what the odds are, some links to previews and a few predictions on who will in it all.
How to Watch
How you watch the World Championship will depend on where you live and whether there is a TV contract there.
USA Web Streaming: In the U.S., ESPN reportedly will broadcast 31 matches on its streaming platform ESPN+. ESPN+ is available via several streaming platforms like Roku and Amazon Fire. However, the announcement regarding ESPN+ has been removed from the USA Team Handball website and ESPN+ has not updated their schedule to include handball matches. (I’ve been told that this is just a temporary development and I will update when I hear more.)
IHF 2021 Men’s WC YouTube Page: Link The IHF will be web streaming every match on YouTube, but these matches won’t be available if your country has a TV contract. This article lists every country that has a TV contract.
Pirated Web Streams: Of course, there are other options available. As sure as the sun comes up tomorrow there will be dubious websites offering live streams of marginal quality. I wouldn’t recommend downloading anything from these sites or paying them anything.
IHF YouTube Site (with VPN): One can also use a VPN service and login from a nation without a TV contract to access the IHF stream. I personally use VPN Nord, but there are other options available. Using VPN is not an ideal solution and I prefer to watch via a paid service like ESPN+. It doesn’t cost that much and you get a more reliable picture. But, if I can’t pay to watch… I don’t feel very guilty about using VPN. And, since some WC matches won’t be available via ESPN+ I will be using VPN to watch them. For more on how to use VPN read this article: Link
For the preliminary round the match schedule typically has 1 late afternoon match, 4 early evening matches and 3 later evening matches. In the U.S. the timing of those 3 viewing opportunities are 9:30 AM, 12:00 PM and 2:30 PM (US ET).
Tourney Format: The preliminary round consists of 8 groups of 4 nations. The top 3 of each preliminary group advances to the Main Round. Groups A and B form Main Round Group I, while Groups C and D form MR Group II, Groups E and F form MR Group III Matches and Groups G and H form MR Group IV. 4th place teams will play in the President’s Cup. Matches from the Preliminary Round (among advancing nations) also count in the Main Round. The top 2 teams from each Main Round Group will then advance to the Quarterfinals.
Preliminary Groups A and B / Main Round Group I
In Group A Germany and Hungary are the clear favorites while Cape Verde and Uruguay should battle for 3rd place. Spain is the big favorite in Group B while Brazil, Tunisia and Poland are relatively even and will battle for the other two slots. For a more in-depth preview check out Chris O’Reilly’s Group A preview at Stregspiller.com.
Spain is all a big favorite to win Group I while Germany and Hungary are expected to battle for 2nd place. Germany’s roster is missing several athletes that chose to not attend the Championship and it will be interesting to see how their replacements perform. Brazil is an outsider, but has been known to surprise in the past. A key factor, however, may be how much COVID has impacted their roster.
Preliminary Groups C and D / Main Round Group II
Croatia and Denmark are big favorites in Group C and D, respectively. I won’t be surprised, though, if Japan knocks off Qatar. With the Olympics coming up, I think Japan has extra motivation to be ready for this tournament. In Group D, I also see Bahrain as capable of beating Argentina.
Really hard not to see Denmark and Croatia advancing in this Group and I like Croatia to also beat Denmark, but that may depend on whether Karacic is healthy by the 2nd week of the tournament.
Preliminary Groups E and F / Main Round Group III
Both these Groups have 2 favorites and 2 outsiders. The favorites will battle for points to take into the main round, while the outsiders fight to avoid the President’s Cup. The Norway – France match starts the competition and could decide who wins Main Round Group III.
I like Norway to win this Group, but I won’t be shocked if France loses to Portugal which has their number in recent tournaments. The only thing that has me guessing is Portugal’s recent defeat to an Iceland team without Aron Palmarsson. It might well be a 3 way between those teams (France, Portugal and Iceland battling for that 2nd QF slot.
Preliminary Groups G nd H / Main Round Group IV
In Group G, it’s hard not to see Egypt winning, but I think late entry N Macedonia can pip Sweden for 2nd place. Sweden is the big favorite in Group H, but I think it’s actually a 3 way fight for the other 2 spots. Yes, S Korea could surprise here. They still have a chance to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics and they may be more ready than other teams because of that.
Egypt didn’t look particularly impressive in their opening match vs Chile, but I still think that hosting the tournament gives them the edge here. I also think Slovenia, which seems to be pretty healthy will join them in the Quarter Finals.
Odds to Win the Championship
Previews and Predictions
(Un)Informed Handball Hour Podcast (Part 1: Hipster Teams): Link
(Un)Informed Handball Hour Podcast (Part 2: Main Teams): Link
Team Handball News Podcast (Betting Focused Review): Link
Did I really think that the USA could beat Austria? Yeah, I did (with caveats)
Toma Rimac, joins the podcast and we take a deep dive into the betting odds for the upcoming Handball World Championships. This is a little bit different from your typical preview show as what might be a good bet is often different from predicting who will win. (Important Note: This podcast was recorded prior to all the COVID related developments on 12 January)
ESPN Broadcasting Handball in the U.S. Our handball world is about to change.
Yesterday, USA Team Handball announced that 31 matches of the upcoming IHF Handball World Championships will be broadcast on ESPN+, ESPN’s streaming platform. Pretty big news… Right? Actually, no, it’s not just “big” news.
In fact, It it the biggest and most important development in the entire history of team handball in the United States.
Long time readers of this website shouldn’t be surprised by my hyperbolic statement as I’ve been saying this in one way or another for years. Why friends will know that I’ve been espousing the critical need for more handball on TV since the late 1980s.
Most prominently, I’ve stated the following prediction several times: If handball were to be broadcast on a regular basis on a network like ESPN, virtually every statement discussing handball’s progress in the U.S. from that point forward would start with these words:
“Well, after handball started being shown on ESPN…”
Pick how you want to finish the sentence. Here are some possibilities:
Collegiate handball really took off with an expansion to several hundred clubs
Youth programs expanded in several cities feeding the collegiate programs
USA Team Handball had year on year membership growth of xx%; Along with accompanying increases in website visits and social media engagement
Merchandise sales of professional handball clubs in Europe gradually increased as more Americans became fans of the game
The quality of stateside play improved dramatically
The level of stateside talent making our national teams starting improving
One Marketing Objective Above All Others
As I highlighted in this commentary from last year getting more handball on TV more trumps all other marketing objectives for the sport… because it’s a true force multiplier that greatly improves the likelihood of better results in all other areas.
So after many years of frustration why are we finally celebrating such big news? As with many great successes it’s the result of a combination of things.
Better European Engagement: For starters the Europeans and the IHF have finally recognized the need for an American market and are starting to put some resources in place to make it happen. The handball world can bemoan the granting of a wild card to a USA team, but actual USA participation in the WC made it a more attractive TV product to ESPN.
Education on Finding the Right Network: Over time, through a variety of means, the key handball content owners now fully understand that not “just any ol’ network” will do for the U.S. market.
Better engagement from USA Team Handball: While I would have liked to have seen action sooner, I’ll just say I’m real pleased that it’s now taken place. Hats off to new CEO, Ryan Johnson, for helping to facilitate the finalization of this deal. In his first week on the job, no less.
Luck: Behind the scenes some connections were made that facilitated making this deal happen. And, most importantly, that good fortune was capitalized upon.
The Great Experiment Begins
So, will my prediction come true? Will every statement about handball in American now begin with a qualifier about whether is was before or after ESPN started broadcasting the sport?
Time will tell, but I’ve never ever been more optimistic about the future of the sport in this country.
Previous Articles/Commentary about Getting More Handball on TV in the U.S.
Why weren’t the U.S. National Teams at the London Olympics?:
Sep 2012: Part 5: A lack of awareness and marketing: One in a million? The 312 real fans of Team Handball in the U.S.: Link
Oct 2012: Part 6: A lack of awareness and marketing: The Catch 22 TV paradox: Link
Dec 2012: Part 7: A lack of awareness and marketing: The historic lack of European support: Link
Dec 2012: Part 8: A lack of awareness and marketing: Europe sees the light, but can’t quite figure out how to properly invade the U.S. market: Link
Dec 2015: 20 Team Handball Matches have been Broadcast the Past 2 Weeks on a U.S. TV Network: Few Know, Fewer Watch and No One Seems to Care: Link
Aug 2016: The Olympics are Over. Thanks for Watching. See you in 2020. How about Sooner?: Link
Feb 2020: ESPN Missed out on the English Premier League: Will they Miss the Boat for Handball Too?: Link
Everybody loves ehfTV… Just like Team USA this weekend you can check out preliminary group opponents France and Austria.
More 2022 European Championship qualification matches scheduled for ehfTV this weekend. Plus, quite a few Women’s club matches as well.
2022 European Handball Championships Qualification Wikipedia page: Link
All matches are at ehfTV All times are CET (CET is 6 hrs ahead of US ET) Odds courtesy of Bet MGM
Friday, 8 January
1815 CET Norway (-6.5) vs Belarus (Don’t be fooled by this betting line. Norway’s emergency squad lost to Belarus. 33-25 earlier in the week, but now Belarus isn’t sending the first team to Norway for the 2nd match.
Saturday, 9 January
1800 CET Spain (-1.5) vs Croatia (Unfortunately, postponed) 1900 CET France (-6.5) vs Serbia (I’m thinking there’s a Team USA watch party in Denmark for this one) 2000 CET Poland (-6.5) vs Turkey
Sunday, 10 January
1410 CET Latvia (-1.5) vs Italy 1700 CET Iceland (-1.5) vs Portugal 1810 CET Germany (-7.5) vs Austria (I’m thinking there’s a Team USA watch party in Denmark for this one) 2000 CET Bosnia & Hercegovina (-5.5) vs Estonia 2000 CET Slovenia (-8.5) vs Netherlands
American Athletes in Action
The U.S. Men’s National Team is in Denmark and will be playing friendlies vs Danish club teams. If any of these matches are available for viewing I will post web streaming links here.
Is the U.S. winless in World Handball Championship Competition? Maybe. It depends if you want to count B World Championships.
Next week the USA Men’s National Team will take part in the IHF Men’s Handball World Championship. It’s been 20 years since the U.S. last appeared in a Sr World’s Championships and the questions that keep cropping up are:
How well did the U.S. do in previous World Championships?
What’s the U.S. record in previous World Championships?
The short answer to the first question is “not very well,” but, the long answer is a bit more complicated due to the changes in the qualification paths, the number of participants and the competition formats the IHF has implemented since the first indoor championship was held in 1938. And, the answer to the second question is open for debate depending on what you count as a World Championship. The discussion below should help explain why answering these questions aren’t as simple as you might think they would be.
Changes in Qualification Paths (A, B and C World Championships)
Notwithstanding the complications COVID has caused with qualification for the 2021 World Championships, qualification for the World Championships is now fairly straight forward. Various continental federations are awarded a number of slots and continental championships are held to determine which nations will qualify for the final tournament.
But, this was not always the case. In fact, from 1976 to 1992 the IHF organized 3 separate World Championships designated as A, B and C World Championships. As you might assume the A Championship was for the top teams and the B and C Championships featured lower level teams. And, much like a European league there was relegation and promotion between the different championships. If one looks back at the nations participating in these various tournaments it’s not entirely clear how nations qualified for the different tournaments. The C World Championships just featured European teams and the same was true with the B World Championships until 1985 when nations from other parts of the world were added.
Presumably, the idea was to give nations like the U.S. an opportunity to get some quality competition on the world stage since only one nation from Pan America qualified for the A Championships. As you might expect the competition in B tournaments was a bit easier and this is reflected with the 6-0-14 record the U.S. compiled with its 3 participations in 1985, 1987 and 1992. Certainly better than the 0-0-25 goose eggs the U.S. has for its six A World Championship appearances.
Changes in the Nations Participating
It also should be noted that the number of participating nations has grown over the years. From 1964 to 1993, A World Championships featured 16 teams. From 1993 to 2019 the field consisted of 24 teams. And, 2021 will be the first time 32 teams will participate. In general, the fewer teams that participate in a World Championships, the stronger the overall field is.
Making the 16 team tournaments even more challenging was the inclusion of just one team from Africa, Asia and the Americas. It’s no real surprise that the U.S. failed to get a win in 1964, 1970, 1974 and 1993 against the European teams playing in these tournaments. I am a little surprised, however, that the U.S. couldn’t get a win vs an Asian side during these tournaments.
When the tournament was expanded to 24 teams that also should have given the U.S. a win or two, particularly at the 1995 WC just a year prior to the 96 Olympics where the U.S. picked up 2 wins and was fairly competitive against the European teams. Not sure what happened there… Although I did find out recently that Darrick Heath did not participate due to a contractual commitment with his club that precluded his fully participating in a National Team training camp. The 2001 WC was simply an overmatched team and they were undoubtedly the weakest team in that 24 team field.
Changes in Format
The final reason the U.S. hasn’t picked off a win at a World Championship yet is that with the exception of the 1993 tournament they’ve never played in a consolation or President’s Cup round. With the President’s Cup there are multiple matches against other teams that fail to make the Main Round and only the last place team goes home without a win. I could be wrong, but I don’t think the U.S. was the very worst team at every tournament they played in. If the President’s Cup format had been in place the U.S. in some of the earlier tournaments the U.S. would have picked off a win somewhere.
Should the B World Championship Matches Count?
Well, there are a couple of ways to look at this. One way is to go with the semantics of if you’re going to call something a “World Championship” then a win there counts. The counter to that argument is the “B” classification in front of it… As in, sorry, you’re not playing with the big boys, therefore it doesn’t count.
I tend to side with the latter argument. Yes, those B World Championships weren’t as weak as the “B” designation would seem to make it, but they were still “the little kid’s table” at Thanksgiving.
That’s not to say that those wins at the B World Championships are meaningless. On the contrary, they are documented proof that U.S. teams back in the 80s and 90s had a measure of respectability. We were clearly better than 3rd tier European sides, could beat 2nd tier European teams, and on a good day give the top teams in the world a bit of a scare. If one looks at the score lines at the 1985 B World Championships the U.S. was competitive in every match. Even played the 2nd half to a draw with the eventual tournament winner, E Germany.
These results suggest that the 85 B WC was the best ever U.S. performance and that the 1995 WC was the best “A” World Championship performance.
As one looks ahead to the 2021 campaign, one can hope for a similar distinction: A measure of respectability against the really good teams and hopefully a couple of wins in the President’s Cup against similar sides trying to prove themselves. And, probably most importantly, real signs of promise as to even better performances at future World Championships leading up to the 2028 Olympics.
Every World Championship Match the U.S. Has Played in
Here’s a compilation of every World Championship the U.S. has participated in and the score from every match played.
IHF Competition Archive: Link (PDF with all competitions through 2009)
1963 Men’s Outdoor Field Handball World Championship (Switzerland)
The IHF staged one more Outdoor Field Handball World Championship in 1966 and then discontinued the tournament. The 1963 Championship was the only outdoor world championship that the U.S. particiated in.
1964 Men’s Handball World Championship (Czechoslovakia)
Euro 2022 Qualification matches available for viewing on ehfTV this week.
There’s not much happening on the club level this week, but there is a plethora of national team competition taking place. Normally, these matches would all be friendlies in preparation for the World Championships, but thanks to COVID-19 related postponements there are ten 2022 European Championship qualification matches scheduled for ehfTV this week with 7 more on tap this weekend.
2022 European Handball Championships Qualification Wikipedia page: Link
All matches are at ehfTV All times are CET (CET is 6 hrs ahead of US ET) Odds courtesy of Bet MGM
Tuesday, 5 January
1530 CET Belarus (-1.5) vs Norway (Don’t be fooled by this betting line. Due to COVID, Norway has sent the 2nd/3rd team to Belarus while the 1st team preps for the WC) 1700 CET Serbia vs France (-5.5) 1715 CET Croatia vs Spain (Slight Favorite)
Wednesday, 6 January
1345 CET Austria vs Germany (-4.5) (I’m thinking there’s a Team USA watch party in Denmark for this one) 1700 CET Turkey vs Poland (-2.5) 1815 CET Netherlands vs Slovenia(-3.5) 1830 CET Estonia vs Bosnia & Hercegovina (-3.5) 2030 CET Portugal (-2.5) vs Iceland
Thursday, 7 January
2030 CET Italy vs Latvia (-2.5)
American Athletes in Action
The U.S. Men’s National Team is in Denmark and will be playing friendlies vs Danish club teams. If any of these matches are available for viewing I will post web streaming links here.
The Hueter brothers (Ian (center bottom) and (Patrick (left corner) are key members of the USA Men’s National Team.
There’s a long line of handball brothers playing for their country in international handball competition. France’s Bertrand and Guillaume Gille, Spain’s Alex and Daniel Dujshebaev, Poland’s Krzysztof and Marcin Lijewski, Argentina’s Diego, Pablo and Sebastian Simonet and Chile’s Emil, Erwin and Harald Feuchtmann to name a few. Why, even the U.S. had the Fitzgerald brothers (Joe and Tom) representing at the 1996 Olympics. Now added to this long line are Team USA’s Hueter brothers, Ian and Patrick.
Ian and Patrick join the podcast to discuss several topics to include their handball origins, connections to the U.S. despite mostly growing up in Germany, playing for TSV Bayer Dormagen youth teams and transitioning to the pro club, playing in the super competitive HBL 2, their recent contract extensions with Dormagen, Team USA’s upcoming training camp in Denmark and, of course, the upcoming 2021 World Championships.
Lois Abbingh and Martine Smeets are all smiles after back to back empty net goals give the Netherlands a 6 goal lead over Serbia with 17 minutes left in the match. Yet again, the stupid, desperation 7v6 strategy is failing miserably…
We’ve all seen it… We’ve all thrown objects at the TV… We’ve all cursed at the stupid coach when yet another ball is casually thrown into the empty net. The 7v6 strategy is a hopeless strategy and it never works… Except when it does.
Down 6 at the Half and Running out of Options
Lost in the midst of Croatia’s incredible run of surprising wins at the 2020 Women’s European Championship was arguably the most remarkable upset of the entire tournament: Serbia’s come from behind 29-25 defeat of the Netherlands in the preliminary round.
The match surely didn’t look like an upset for the first 43 minutes of the game. At halftime the defending World Champions, the Netherlands, had a commanding 15-9 lead and to make matters worse for Serbia they had lost their star player, Andrea Lekić, to injury. Without any obvious solutions, Serbian coach, Ljubomir Obradovic, decided to switch things up dramatically at halftime, choosing to employ the 7v6 offensive strategy. This tactic involves pulling your GK on offense and replacing them with an extra player on offense. This is called 7v6 since the offensive set has 7 offensive court players playing against 6 defensive court players.
7v6 Pros and Cons
The one obvious advantage to this strategy is that, in theory, one offensive player is always open and unguarded by the defense. The other less obvious advantage is that the extra circle runner generally forces defenses to hug the 6 meter line more closely, thus opening up more jump shot possibilities.
The obvious drawback to this strategy is the open net at the other end of the court. If you turn the ball over chances are the defense is going to get an easy goal. The same is true if the GK makes a clean save and retrieves the ball quickly, or worse, catches it. Perhaps nothing demonstrates this more ably than this video compilation that the (Un)informed Handball hour put together to highlight Croatia’s use of the strategy against Brazil at the 2019 Men’s World Championship. The six empty net goals were certainly a huge factor in Brazil’s 29-26 upset win.
The First 11 Minutes of the 2nd Half: Decent Results, but Simply Trading Goals
The first 11 minutes of the 2nd half: Trading Goals
Serbia – Netherlands Match Video: Link (The 2nd half starts 1:03:27 on the ehfTV clock.)
For the first 11 minutes of the 2nd half the strategy works fairly well. Serbia has 9 possessions using the 7v6 strategy and they score on 5 of them. And, the Netherlands also fails to cash in on two empty net opportunities with GK Tess Wester whiffing on a long shot and Dannick Snelder getting blocked on a fast throw off shot after a made goal, by a just in time return by Serbian GK, Jovana Risovic. At the 38:42 minute mark the score is 20-14 with both teams have scored 5 goals a piece. The Netherlands then gets a 2 minute penalty and Serbia scores 2 goals when playing 6v5, cutting the lead to 20-16.
A Huge Setback: Back to Back Empty Net Goals
Disaster Strikes
With the lead cut to four goals Serbia seemed to be showing some signs of life, but then at the 41:36 minute mark everything seemingly falls apart. On back to back possessions Serbia turns the ball over to the Netherlands for 2 open net goals. In less than a minute the score is 22-16 and the game is right back where it was at the start of the 2nd half, a 6 goal deficit.
There aren’t too many things more demoralizing to a team than a string of empty net goals in quick succession. It’s one thing to give up a goal after playing tough defense for 40 seconds. It’s another thing entirely to watch the other team effortlessly score against literally no defense whatsoever. On more than one occasion I’ve seen obviously demoralized players hanging their head, or worse, glaring with not very well concealed anger toward their coach and the stupid 7v6 strategy the coach is making them play.
We don’t see anything like that, however, from Serbia in the video feed. Instead, we see the Netherlands team with all smiles. The defending World Champions have weathered the storm. They’ve got a 6 goal lead and things are seemingly looking good for them in their opening match of the tournament.
Cue Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture: Time for a 7 Goal Barrage from Serbia
Relentless Execution: 7 straight goals in 6 minutes
But, as we all know in handball, “seemingly” is often replaced with “reality.” And, the reality that happens in just 6 minutes is a combination of great defense at one end combined with a textbook, masterclass in how to execute the 7v6 tactic at the other end. 7 offensive possessions for 7 straight goals and a 22-16 deficit turns into a 23-22 lead. One of the goals is on a fast break, but the other 6 are all scored using the 7v6 offensive strategy. And, the shots come from all over the place. Wing shots, breakthroughs and jump shots now coming from a bit shorter range thanks to the strategy.
Why, if I had better video editing skills I would make a video like the (Un)informed Handball Hour did, but this time I would replace the Dating Game theme with the 1812 overture with each of the 7 goals being synchronized with the cymbal clashes.
Seriously, it’s a rapid and relentless beatdown worth reviewing. For the full effect, start by first watching the Netherlands score their two fast break goals (1:17:15 on the ehfTV clock)
Continued Execution, but at a Less Efficient Pace
Continued success, albeit at a less successful rate.
The remaining 11 minutes offer more of the same, but the success rate drops from perfect to just pretty good. Serbia just scores on 5 of its 8 remaining 7v6 possessions. They also turn the ball over a couple of times with one of those turnovers leading to an empty goal for the Netherlands. Serbia’s defense also allows a couple of more goals for a final score of 29-25.
Keys to Success
Here are a couple of summaries of the 2nd half. First, a look at Serbia’s offensive possessions.
Key 1: High offensive efficiency: 16 of Serbia’s 26 7v6 possessions resulted in a goal, a success rate of 62%. That’s pretty good and certainly better than the 9 for 28 (32%) success rate in the first half. I’d have to do more research on Serbia’s average over several matches, but I think it’s safe to say that 2nd half performance was well above average.
Key 2: GK Readiness: Perhaps, just as important if not more important was Serbia’s GK readiness following 7v6 possession. Of the 26 7v6 possessions their GK was read in the net on 20 of those possessions. And, the Netherlands was only able to cash in with goals on just 3 of the 6 possessions when the GK was either late or not in the goal at all.
The Real Key (scoring instead of turnovers): However, it should be noted there is a huge correlation between 7v6 offensive success (scoring a goal) and GK readiness. And, of course, there is a huge correlation with turnovers and GKs not being ready on the other end.
An Outlier?
Well, clearly this match is documented proof that the 7v6 strategy can be very, very effective. But, is it simply an outlier amongst an overwhelming number of failures like the Brazil-Croatia match? I wish I knew the answer to that question, but I don’t. To varying degrees I’ve seen this strategy work before. In fact, back in 2016, I saw Belgium almost pull off a similar upset against France. At the time, I chalked this up to an unprepared French team that didn’t know how to counteract this new fangled strategy. Four years later, no such excuse can be valid anymore.
Anecdotally, I can assess that this strategy fails more often it works. But, I don’t have the hard data to say how often it works and how often it fails. And, even if I did it would be hard to read too much into it because there are so many other factors to consider. In particular, a big part of Serbia’s comeback was their defense in the 2nd half.
But, here’s one aspect to consider: If one changes just 2 Serbia 7v6 possessions from goals to turnovers it’s likely a 4 goal swing, meaning 29-25 becomes 27-27. One always wants more goals than turnovers, but with 7v6 the impact of that ratio is even more pronounced. Perhaps one could even come up with a benchmark ratio for success if they had enough data.
Finally, regardless of what the numbers might say regarding how unlikely 7v6 was to work for Serbia, the reality is that it worked. And, it surely was more likely to have worked than a conventional strategy would have.
Translation: Sorry 7v6 haters: This strategy isn’t going away anytime soon. Not without a change to the rules, anyway.
Final Four 3rd Place and Championship (CET is 6 hours ahead of US ET)
EHF Champions League Final Four
Seven months later than planned due to the coronavirus pandemic the EHF Champions League Final Four takes center stage this Monday and Tuesday. It will be a little surreal seeing the normally sold out Laxness Arena in Cologne empty, but it will still be handball well worth watching.
How to Watch: If there is no TV contract where you live the matches will be available live on ehfTV. In the U.S and Canada the only way you can watch will be on beIN Sports XTRA, which is a free streaming service: More Info List of TV contracts by nation: Link Tom ‘Brannagáin will be providing English commentary for all 4 matches.
Odds: Barcelona, which is undefeated this season in all competitions, is a big favorite: Here are the odds for each team to win the tournament:
TSV Bayer Dormagen vs Gummersbach (-2.5) (Wednesday, 1930 CET): Link (VPN required; More info; What I use)
Ian and Patrick Hueter play for Dormagen. Dormagen is on a roll and will finish 202 with a huge challenge, taking on VFL Gummersbach which has lost only one game all season
Would you like to be informed as to when handball can be streamed online? If yes, follow Team Handball News on social media for updates like this as well as breaking alerts for unplanned opportunities like the free HBL matches that seem to pop up from time to time.
The EHF Champions League Final Four will only be on beIN Sports XTRA in the U.S. and Canada
Attention American and Canadian handball fans: If you are planning on watching the EHF Champions League Final Four this coming Monday and Tuesday (28-29 December) on ehfTV I’ve got some bad news for you:
The bane of handball fans everywhere, the dreaded geo-block, will be in force at ehftv.
The good news, however, is that the matches will be available for free on beIN Sports Xtra. beIN Sports Xtra is a free streaming service that is now available with multiple streaming channels.
How to Watch beIN Sports XTRA on Roku
To watch on your Roku, go to your home screen and look for the “Roku Channel” icon. It’s a streaming channel just like Netflix or Hulu and should be readily available. (If not, you can add it just like you would any other channel.) Click on the Roku Channel icon and then scroll down until you see “beIN Sports XTRA” icon. Click on it and the channel should start playing. It’s live so, there are commercials just like what you would see on a TV channel.
How to Watch Over The Air
The Roku channel is also available “Over the Air” on the following digital channels in these cities. Yes, many of us are used to our cable/satellite options, but in these cities you can switch your TV input to Digital and watch over the air in HD.
Another Option: VPN
I guess there’s another option. One could also use VPN to watch from another country. However, as VPN sometimes results in a less quality signal and beIN Sports XTRA is free there aren’t too many good reasons to resort to VPN. I suppose if none of the multiple methods for watching beIN Sports XTRA are available it could be an alternative. More info on VPN: Link
beIn Sports XTRA Final Four Schedule
Would you like to be informed as to when handball can be streamed online? If yes, follow Team Handball News on social media for updates like this as well as breaking alerts for unplanned opportunities like the free HBL matches that seem to pop up from time to time.
Ian Hueter and Dormagen take on Wilhelmshaven in a Boxing Day Matchup
Most of the pro leagues have shut down for the winter break, but the German Bundesliga marches on. Odds courtesy of Unibet.
American Athletes in Action
Germany HBL 2:
TV Wilhelmshaven vs TSV Bayer Dormagen (Pick em) (Saturday, 1930 CET): Link (VPN required; More info; What I use)
Ian and Patrick Hueter play for Dormagen. Dormagen had a huge win over VfL Lübeck-Schwartau on Wednesday and they have climbed the table to 4th place. Wilhelmshaven is in 12th place and 2 points will solidify their place in the standings. Dormagen has one more match to play and it’s a big one. On the 30th they will host 2nd place Gummersbach which is coached by the Icelandic legend, Guðjón Valur Sigurðsson.
Leipzig vs Flensburg (-2.5) (Sunday, 1430 CET): Link (VPN might be required; More info; What I use)
1st Place Flensburg travels to 6th place Leipzig. Flensburg needs every point to stay ahead of Kiel while Leipzig wants to move up in the standings for a shot at a European League slot for next year.
Would you like to be informed as to when handball can be streamed online? If yes, follow Team Handball News on social media for updates like this as well as breaking alerts for unplanned opportunities like the free HBL matches that seem to pop up from time to time.
