Plenty of handball viewing options this weekend. Odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
American Athletes in Action
French Pro Ligue: Nice vs Angers (Saturday, 2030 CET): Link
Left back, Abou Fofana plays for Angers. Angers lost to Strasbourg on Tuesday and really could use a win vs Nice which is the only club below them in the standings. The winner of this match will move out of the relegation zone
Liga Asobal: Viveros Herol BM. Nava vs Leon (-3.5) (Sunday, 2000 CET): Link
Circle Runner, Drew Donlin, plays for Leon and has been getting some extended playing time lately on defense. Leon had a huge victory on Thursday over previously unbeaten Irun and will look to continue their winning streak.
Other Matches this Weekend
EHF European Competitions: ehfTV
There’s a jampacked schedule of 25 matches on ehfTV this weekend. 2 on Friday, 12 on Saturday and 11 on Sunday. Most of the matches are lower level European League and European Cup fixtures, with the exception being 5 Women’s Champions League matches.
The pandemic appears to be ramping up again, so you might want to catch some handball action online… while you still can. Thankfully, there are a plethora of options this weekend. Here’s some links to online streams with the goals handicap betting odds courtesy of Bet MGM.
EHF Women’s Champions League: Round 8 includes 3 matches on Saturday and 3 on Sunday.
Antonio AREIA RODRIGUES and FC Porto take on Szeged in the Match of the Week.
There’s no Thursday NFL game this week so why not take the opportunity to watch some Champions League handball later today. There are 3 matches on tap starting at 8:45 PM (CET) / 2:45 PM (US ET).
MOTW: FC Porto (POR) vs MOL-Pick Szeged (HUN) (On Demand Video)
HC Vardar 1961 (MKD) vs SG Flensburg-Handewitt (GER) (On Demand Video)
Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) vs Elverum Handball (NOR) (On Demand Video)
All 3 matches should be interesting, but the Match of the Week (MOTW) between Porto and Szeged will include English language commentary so you might want to start there.
The matches will be live early afternoon in the U.S., but I will post links to the full match video when they are available so hopefully you’ll be able to watch later tonight without knowing the score.
The 2020-2021 EHF Champions League throws off this Wednesday and there are some important changes that handball fans will need to get used to.
Midweek Appointment Viewing
First and foremost, the biggest change will see all matches being played on Wednesday and Thursday. Whoa. Come Again? Champions League matches won’t take place on the weekend anymore?
Yes, that’s right. All matches will be on Wednesday and Thursday. And, further all matches will take place at two consistent throw off times. In Europe throw offs will be at either 1845 (CET) or 2045 (CET). That means these matches, depending on your time zone, will take place late morning to mid afternoon in the U.S. For reference on the east coast the first matches will throw off at 12:45 PM (US ET) and the second matches will throw off at 2:45 PM (US ET).
While some folks might whine at this change overall it’s a really smart move for the sport and the change in time won’t
Forum Club Handball: An organization quietly influencing handball behind the scenes.
Recently, I’ve fielded some questions regarding the Forum Club Handball (FCH). What is this organization and why are they helping the development of U.S. players.
Fortunately, a couple of podcasts were aired recently to help educate handball fans about the FCH. First, Xavier O’Callaghan was interviewed by Bini Mustafa on the Straight Handball Talk podcast and was asked about it. O’Callaghan was the President of the FCH and he provides a great top level explanation from a European perspective.
Then, on this Shootin’ Straight podcast I was also asked about the FCH. To answer that question, though, I first went on a bit of a diatribe to explain how U.S. and European pro sports are organized differently. This is because understanding those differences first is fundamental to understanding why there was a need for an organization (FCH) to represent Europe’s top clubs. I also elaborate on why it’s a “loose confederation” or forum and why initially the EHF was a bit wary of this upstart organization.
Side note: There was lots of great discussion on a variety of topics (U.S. challenges and college development are a couple) in the Shootin’ Straight podcast that’s worth checking out.
In part 2, I’ll take a closer look at the FCH’s support to U.S. player development
Note: This map was updated based on feedback on 31 March 2020: See paragraph at bottom for what the feedback was and why or why not the map changed
Where is handball popular?
How popular is handball compared to other sports?
Those are definitely a couple of questions that I’ve been asked quite a few times. In 2005 I tackled those questions in one of my very first blog posts. Back then it was often stated that handball was the 2nd most popular team sport. Well, it would be totally awesome if that were true, but alas it’s not… not even close. In fact, even in Europe where handball is most popular there are only a handful of countries where our sport definitely takes 2nd place.
Methodology (or the Lack of One)
As an engineer I generally prefer to deal with data as opposed to gut feelings and anecdotal information. For sure there are a lot of different criteria that one could use to measure popularity. Here’s a laundry list for you:
# of participants
# of registered federation members
# of clubs
Attendance at matches
Frequency of TV broadcasts and ratings
Existence of a professional league
The salaries of professional players
Interest in national team performance
Social media interest.
Each of those criteria have merit, but there are several problems.
This data is not readily available on a country by country basis
The accuracy of the data that is available is often suspect or open to interpretation
The relative importance of each criterion is wide open to debate
Bottom line: An exercise to carefully weigh all of these criteria in a systematic reliable way is pretty much impossible.
That being said in most cases it’s fairly easy to weigh all those criteria and to come up with a ranking of the top 3 sports in just about any country. And, a ranking that most objective sports fans of that country would agree on without a whole lot of debate.
There’s a couple of reasons why this is true.
In most countries there is one dominant team sport and that sport is football (soccer). Practically no one will even credibly argue against soccer’s dominance. So off the top, we’re now only talking about 2nd and 3rd place.
And, again in most (but, not all) countries, #2 is often pretty well established based on the criteria above. Even without hard numbers the answer is obvious to people that live there.
All this being said, there are some countries, however, where handball’s place in the pecking order is open to debate. A debate, for the reasons listed earlier is pretty hard to resolve. So, instead of resolving I’ve decided to use the lack of a resolution as a way to help classify the sport’s popularity.
Classification (Key)
Here’s a few notes on how I’ve classified popularity.
Definitely the 2nd most popular team sport:
Countries where handball is 2nd in a preponderance of the criteria
Either the 2nd or 3rd most popular team sport:
Countries where there could be a legitimate debate between 2 sports as to which is 2nd or 3rd
Example: In several Balkan countries depending on who you talk to either basketball or handball is 2nd
Countries where handball is clearly 3rd
Example: There’s a pretty strong consensus that the proper ranking in Sweden is 1) Football; 2) Ice Hockey; and 3) Handball
A major sport with a significant presence
Countries where the ranking becomes muddled from 3rd place on down, but handball is still clearly a major sport that captures significant attention
Example: In France few would argue with soccer being first and rugby being second, but 3rd place is less clear between basketball and handball. That being said, even if Handball is the 4th most popular sport it’s still is a “major sport with a significant presence.” This is clearly demonstrated by it’s pro league, attendance and national team
A minor sport with some presence
Countries where the ranking becomes muddled from 3rd place on down, but Handball is more of a minor sport with a small, but dedicated following.
Example: Greece has a national league and several club teams playing at different levels, but the level of play is below that of other countries. They have a national team that is competitive, but still a notch below nations where the sport is more established.
A very minor sport with a limited presence
Countries where the sport’s ranking is somewhat moot because it’s hard to compare perhaps the 6th or 7th most popular team sport. Overall, participation numbers are small and the sport is seen as a curiosity by most of the citizens of that country.
Example: Great Britain fits that definition pretty well. The sport is growing, but they have a ways to go move up in popularity.
A few more thoughts
There is a rough pecking order from top to bottom. Blue is top; Green is next, etc.
This isn’t a perfect representation. And, one could argue for even more gradation. For instance, one could take the nations in yellow and create a rough pecking order.
What about individual sports? If you really wanted to further complicate matters we could add Formula 1, UFC and Tennis. I didn’t want to go there.
A few tough calls
Iceland: I’ve seen a few Icelandic basketball players playing for USA colleges and read that the sport is making inroads there. There are even more registered basketball clubs than handball clubs in the country… Still, I’m not ready to say that handball has slipped to third in Iceland.
Portugal: I’m thinking that 5 years ago Portugal would have been orange, but now they’ve jumped to green? But, a couple of folks convinced me that it’s arguably #2 there. Could that be just a momentary blip due to a Euro 2020 high?
What do you think?
This compilation/depiction isn’t set in stone. It’s just one man’s opinion influenced by feedback. If I’ve missed the boat let me know via email or social media and I’ll reconsider updating the map.
Email: john.ryan@teamhandballnews.com Facebook: Link Twitter: Link Instagram: Link
Also, I’ll be creating similar maps for the other continents and I could use some feedback on Africa, Asia and the Americas.
Update (31 March 2020)
After the initial posting on 29 March, 2020, I received a lot of great feedback. Based on this feedback I made a few changes.
What’s Changed and Why
Romania (Green to Blue): Several comments all pointed out that handball is a solid #2 as a team sport; In particular, women’s handball both at the club and national team level has a pretty high level of attention- Arguably, higher than even football.
Cyprus (Red to Orange): Handball is not a big time sport in Cyprus, but based on their solid performances in both IHF Emerging Nations and early round EHF Qualification matches the sport has more than a limited presence
Faroe Islands (Blue): This small, but proud handball nation was inadvertently omitted. Some have even suggested that handball might even be the #1 sport there. Based on feedback, however, from one resident who is also a huge handball fan, however, I’ve assessed that it’s close, but not quite there yet.
What Received a Lot of Feedback, but Stayed the Same
Some handball knowledgeable people pointed out some colors on the map that just didn’t seem quite right. While, I understood their points and even agreed with them to some extent I decided not to make a change, though, in several instances. More than anything the debate centers on the imperfect classification system which naturally leads to some reasonable disagreements.
Portugal should be moved to yellow… Especially if France and Spain are Yellow: It does look a little strange, but it shouldn’t be interpreted to mean that handball therefore is a bigger sport in Portugal than it is in those two countries. If anything it’s more reflective of the reality that France (rugby) and Spain (basketball) have strong #2 sports.
Netherlands should be yellow… Especially if their women’s team is now the World Champion: There’s no denying that the women’s team has been an incredible success, but I would argue that this success is more the result of a smart national team strategy making the most of a pretty small talent pool. Handball is still a fairly small sport there in terms of participation and national interest. That certainly could change and this map is not set in stone.
Why is Russia yellow… Handball isn’t as popular there as it is in other countries like France and Spain: Handball has certainly slipped in terms of popularity in Russia and I, for one, agree that it’s clearly more popular in many other countries depicted in yellow. However, it’s still an important sport there and it’s women’s team is still a force. And, if one looks at the countries in orange it’s also clear that handball is more popular in Russia than it is those countries.
Serbia should be yellow… Since handball has really slipped in popularity there: I got feedback from one Serbian that handball has slipped behind basketball, water polo and even volleyball. I’ll need more feedback, however, before I drop any Balkan state below green.
(19 Year old Nikola Karabatic with one of his 11 goals in the first leg of the 2003 Champions League Final… Notice anything strange about this goal?)
The Coronavirus Pandemic has been a real bummer for sports
fans everywhere. No more live sports. To fill the gap ESPN and other sports
networks have been airing classic matches.
Handball is no different and last week I sent out a Twitter post asking for recommendations of classic matches that were available online and “Sharp Action” replied with a link to the 2nd Leg of the 2003 Champions League Final between Portland San Antonio and Montpellier. And, then later someone pointed me to a great Spanish site (blogyoutube) with the 1st leg of this classic final.
It’s hard to believe it was 17 years ago. It seems like yesterday that I was watching these matches in with my 1 year old daughter “surfing” the coffee table in our Paris apartment. Now she’s getting ready to graduate from high school. (I guess it’s TBD as to whether she walks across a stage or just gets her diploma in the mail.)
Handball wise, it’s been quite an education. I remember that it took me awhile back in the
2002-03 season to figure out that club handball was on TV in France and what
the Champions League was. Not to mention
what the hell a “two match aggregate playoff” was. There was no Final Four at the time and
therefore the semifinal and finals were decided by the aggregate score of two
matches, with one being played in each locale.
I’ve only rewatched the first leg in Pamplona and I won’t give any spoilers, but here’s a few contextual tidbits that might help you appreciate the match more:
Arguably, these matches are a bit of a coming out party for France’s big 3: Nikola Karabatic, Didier Dinart, and Thierry Omeyer. Dinart is generally considered to be the best defender of all time. Omeyer is in the conversation for best all time GK and, of course, Karabatic may well be the handball GOAT. Certainly, few would argue against the reality that he has been the GOAT for the 21st century.
Karabatic had just turned 19 years old at the time these matches were played. I will never forget a few months earlier watching Montpellier and checking his (at the time) relatively short Wikipedia page and absolutely being floored to discover that he was just 18 years old and thinking to myself, “Holy crap! How good is the guy going to be in a few years?”
Laughably, Montpellier coach, Patrice Canayer didn’t start Karabatic for this match. To Canayer’s credit, though, he doesn’t leave much after he does enter the game.
Take a look at this goal by Karabatic: Link (Notice anything unusual?)
Watch what Karabatic does at the end of the first half and think about how that might impact the final outcome.
Check out how Didier Dinart clogs up the middle on defense. There ought to be some handball analytics that measure what an impact that sort of play can be on the final outcome. You just don’t see many goals scored while he’s in the vicinity of the action. It’s hard to measure that, but if you watch just him (instead of the ball) for a few minutes you’ll start to appreciate what a difference he makes.
The Spanish club, Portland San Antonio was a major presence in the Spanish League and was actually located in Pamplona. Yes, the club was located there even if the club name by coincidence featured the names of two NBA franchise cities, which are not cities in Spain. Best that I can tell, San Antonio is a neighborhood in Pamplona while Portland was the name of the cement company that was their sponsor. They were also a casualty of the Spanish financial crisis that caused the dramatic decline in the Liga Asobal.
Be sure to appreciate Jackson Richardson’s skills both on offense and defense, but keep in mind that he was also almost 34 years old and was actually entering the tail end of a great career.
Portland San Antonio’s leading scorer for the match was a Belarussian, Mikhail Yakimovich, who also won a gold medal in 1992 for the Soviet Union. He was also 35 years old. Back in the day, Liga Asobal teams seemed to have quite a few players from the Balkans and the former Soviet Union populating their rosters and this is one of the reasons the league was once considered the best in the world.
The GK for Portland San Antonio, Vladimir Rivero, was originally from Cuba and tragically died a year later due to an aneurysm. He played 191 international matches for Cuba.
It’s kind of quaint to see all the lines on the floor for basketball, volleyball, etc, but that was pretty commonplace until the EHF instituted requirements for standardized floors.
Links to more classic matches you can see online: Link
Former NFL Player and newly converted handball fan, Gary Barnidge.
Earlier this month when the Coronavirus was just some issue China was dealing with a group of American NFL players (current and former) had a joint training session with Hungarian Club, FTC Budapest. Video of the match went viral as it seemed to provide what every handball fan wanted after the infamous, Jay Cutler, interview on Pardon My Take: Namely, a match between cocky, over confident NFL players and experienced handball players.
The reality, however, was significantly different. The NFL Players were part of the American Football Without Barriers, a non-profit group that uses sports as a tool to help disadvantaged children live healthy and fit lifestyles through the core values of physical fitness, wellness, and education. And, as the name implies part of that mission is conducting camps and spreading the gospel of American Football in places like Hungary.
Gary Barnidge, played eight seasons as a Tight End for the Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns and is one of the founding members of American Football Without Barriers. He joins the podcast to discuss their trip to Hungary, the growing popularity of American Football and what handball might learn from it, and, of course, their handball training with FTC Budapest.
What’s clear: Handball is harder than it looks and the sport has picked up some new and genuine fans from American Football.
Complete video of the entire training session: Link Shorter video with match footage: Link
Don’t miss an episode: – Subscribe to the podcast in iTunes: Link – Or use this RSS Feed to sign up for the podcast in your favorite podcast aggregator: Link
And, be sure to check out the podcast archive with interviews and great handball discussion going all the way back to 2006: Link
The podcast was sponsored by Aspire Products, EMST150 Training Device. Check it out and don’t forget to use the promo code THN30 for a 30% discount.
The Team Handball Sub-Channel on ESPN+ (What I Would Like to See, Anyway)
The Bill Simmons Podcast recently had an interesting discussion on how streaming is changing the way we watch sports. Joining Simmons was tech analyst, Ben Thompson, and they covered several topics, but eventually the discussion turned to ESPN and their relatively new Over the Top (OTT) streaming service, ESPN+. Around 16:30 into the episode, Thompson talked about which sports content would be on the traditional ESPN network channels and what sports would find their way to ESPN+
“They’re never going to take the big stuff away from ESPN. ESPN still makes a ton of money. And, also it makes a lot of sense with it being live, advertising… Sports is going to be the very last thing to go to a subscription model.
But, all the other sports, that like a few thousand people care about… there’s literally no time for that on ESPN… There’s 24 hours in a day. Right? And, so all that sort of stuff is a huge opportunity.
Actually, I think one of the biggest missed opportunities that people don’t think about for ESPN is… ESPN was pretty early to soccer and they should have locked up the Premier League a decade ago. Like, if they owned the Premier League and had it on ESPN+. Imagine how huge that would be right now? That was a big missed opportunity.”
There then was a brief discussion on how ESPN had
investigated purchasing the Premier League, but had assessed that they couldn’t
because there just wasn’t enough room for it.
That it would interfere with American football which attracts the
greatest number of viewers.
Thompson then continues:
“Whereas, now that they have ESPN+; their bandwidth is unlimited. Right? They can show whatever they want to on there. So, it’s like a total shift in mindset as to what’s valuable and why it is valuable. It goes from what reaches the maximum number of people… to actually what’s really valuable is stuff that some number of people care intensely about. Because the more intensely they care about it the more they are willing to pay for it.”
It doesn’t take much imagination to review this conversation in the context of team handball. As in, how big might it be for ESPN if they were tp purchase the EHF Champions and other handball content and put it on ESPN+? Or, will it end up being another missed opportunity. Yes, right now it might not seem like a huge opportunity, but in 10 years hindsight might well tell a different story.
As one of nearly 8M ESPN+ subscribers, all I know is that every time I access the app it is painfully clear to me that this is exactly where team handball belongs. That it would provide the very best exposure and chance to grow the sport.
Don’t get me wrong:
I love ehfTV (especially, when it’s not geoblocked), but it stands little chance of exposing the sport to new fans in the U.S.
I love traditional TV channels like ESPN, the NBC Olympic Channel, and even beIN Sports, but it’s tough to get time on those channels. (Christ, it’s often tough for handball to get aired on TV in Europe.)
And, maybe there are other streaming possibilities like NBC Gold and DAZN USA, but those OTT platforms are starting to fall far behind ESPN in terms of subscriber base.
Some other reasons why ESPN just makes sense:
They have had multiple on air personalities like Scott Van Pelt profess their love for the sport.
They recently talked about handball twice on their daily show, Highly Questionable.
They have included handball several times on its popular plays of the day segment. Like these from from 2017 and 2018, as well a couple more from the 2019 PANAM Games and 2020 European Championship. (I wonder how often it would be on if they owned the product)
They have an immense social media presence. As an example when they’ve put handball plays of the day on their Instagram account they gotten up to 2M views.
The EHF Champions League TV rights are opening up this summer. The French and German League rights are already available. ESPN+ is still looking to add content. It just makes so much sense. Who knows, maybe it will even happen.
Side Notes:
Did the proposed ESPN+ channel graphic look familiar to you? It might because it’s very similar to one I made after the Olympics four years ago when I wrote a commentary proposing a similar OTT handball channel. My commentary was somewhat prescient, but, for sure, I didn’t consider ESPN getting into the act.
The podcast host, Bill Simmons, is also a big handball fan. He wrote this article during the 2012 Olympics and talked about handball on his TV show during the 2016 Olympics. Makes me wonder what’s in store for 2020?
Group Play for the EHF Cup starts this weekend with 4 teams broken up into 4 groups. Normally, I don’t pay much attention to the EHF Cup as there are only so many hours in a day and it is the second fiddle to the more prestigious EHF Champions League. Unless you have a “dog in the fight” watching the EHF Cup is a bit like watching the NIT instead of the NCAA Tournament.
However, this season, I, and other USA Team Handball fans, indeed, have a dog in the fight with Drew Donlin, playing for Ademar Leon, 1 of the 16 clubs fighting for the title. Leon is in Group C and will be battling German club, Madgeburg, French club, Nantes, and Slovenia club, Velenje for a spot in the quarterfinals. 1st place guarantees advancement and placing 2nd also may advance depending on the ranking of the 2nd place teams in the the 4 groups.
This should be a very interesting competition and on paper I would assess that Nantes (2nd in the French League and Magdeburg (5th in the German Bundesliga) are the two favorites with Leon and Velenje the outsiders. But, the competition is a double round robin and won’t be played on paper.
Even better news is that every match will be available on ehfTV and unlike the EHF Champions League there is no pesky geoblock in the way of enjoying the matches. (There are ways around geoblocks, but it’s nice not to have deal with that. How to watch the EHF CL: Link)
Here’s Leon’s schedule in Group C (All times CET / US ET (+6)
Sunday, 9 Feb 1700 @ Nantes Livestream Wednesday 12 Feb 2000 vs Magdeburg Livestream Saturday, 22 Feb, 1930 vs Velenje Livestream Saturday, 29 Feb, 1700 @ Velenje Livestream Saturday, 21 Mar, 2000 vs Nantes Livestream Sunday, 29 Mar, 1700 @ Magdeburg Livestream
(Bookmark this page for future reference: I will update this page with On Demand streams when they become available)
It’s not clear how much game time, Donlin will be seeing in these matches. Of late he’s been seeing a few minutes of action as a defender in each half. However, as we discussed in this podcast, coach Cadenas has told him that his size might be needed against bigger teams like Nantes and Madgeburg.
Sunday, 26 January All Times Local (CET) / US ET is -6 hrs) Odds courtesy of 10Bet <Open an account>
The match can be seen live on Free TV in the the U.S. on beIN Sports XTRA. (How to watch) Check it out. I like ehfTV, but I personally get a better viewing experience with beIN Sports XTRA. The picture quality is better and it’s more reliable than the web stream.
The final will also be rebroadcast in prime time on the beIN Sports Network (regular TV) at 8:00 PM (US ET).
16:30 Spain (-1) vs Croatia (For 1st Place/Gold) Match Video (On Demand): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.
John’s Pick(s): – Current Bankroll: 994.92 Euros – Yesterday’s Result: Germany (-1.5) vs Portugal (1.84, -119); Bet 100 Euros to win 84.03. ; Win 84.03 Euros as Germany won 29-27. – Today’s Pick: Alternate point spread; Spain (-2.5) vs Croatia (2.3, +130); Bet 100 Euros to win 130. I’ve got nothing to add to Samo’s detailed analysis. He’s got me totally convinced. Heck, I’m tempted to take Spain (-4.5) at (3.45, +245), but I’ll play it relatively safe.
Samo’s Pick(s): – Current Bankroll: 1795.25 Euros – Yesterday’s Results: Did not bet – Today’s Pick: Money Line bet; Spain to win (1.64/-155); Bet 100 Euros to win 64.51
Today, Spain will try to defend the title they won in at the 2018 EURO in Croatia. And, for multiple reasons I think they will indeed win back to back titles.
First of all, Vargas – Corrales GK duo is much better than Šego – Ašanin. I know both Šego and Ašanin have made some big saves in the final minutes of important matches during this tournament, but Vargas is consistent throughout. He is one of the best goalkeepers in the world and even if he is having a slightly worse day, there is always Corrales, another world class GK. There is just no debate: Spain have better goalkeepers.
Croatia’s strongest asset is their back line, but will Cindrić be ready? He has problems with his knee and he wasn’t able to play in the semifinal the way we all expect him to. But ok, they still have Karačič and most importantly, Duvnjak. What a player! He set everything up in the final minutes and overtime. And, not just one overtime, but two overtimes against Norway.
And yes, this 80 minute match will impact their play today. Croatia doesn’t have a great bench, and players like Mamič/Šarac/Hrstič are not (yet) players who can make a big impact in a EURO final. And we all saw how tired were Karačič and Duvnjak at the end of last couple of matches. Sure, there is also Stepančič, their ONLY right back. (I still don’t understand how Červar didn’t bring another RB.) And, because Stepančič is playing 50+ minutes per match in both attack and defense his shooting has not been the best. Only 52% and he is also taking a lot of shots: 54 attempts in 8 matches.
Marič, Croatia’s pivot, had a great match vs Norway, but Spain plays a different style of defense and I don’t think he will get very many useful balls today. As far as wingers go, Spain is much better at this positionl. Their wingers are playing for Barcelona and both of Croatia’s wingers are playing for Zagreb: Enough said.
Finally, let’s talk about each side’s defense. Croatia’s 5-1 defense has been fantastic. Duvnjak should probably win the best defensive player award as well as MVP. He has been amazing. But, will the 5-1 work so well against Spain? Spain is using their wings a lot, and if they can past Duvnjak in the middle they can stretch this Croatian defense out. And, I think they have players to do so. Dujshebaev is playing fantastic, he is in great form and working great with Entrerrios. Plus, there are also Sarmiento, Fernandez and Maqueda, all with solid tournaments so far and this allows Ribera to rotate and keeping playing at a high tempo in attack. Croatia will really need to perform on another level in defense to stop all the possible threats Spain has to offer.
The best part of this Spain team is (still) their defense. Combined, Morros and Guardiola are 71 years old, but they are still one of the best defensive pairs in the world. Croatia are the most dangerous in the middle, but this is also where Spain’s defense is the strongest. Any and all turnovers are punished as we saw in semifinal against Slovenia. And, rest assured with Croatia playing their 9th match in 17 days, there will be mistakes. Croatia will try to slow down the game to limit Spain’s fast break opportunities much the same way they did against Norway.
Overall, Croatia has an amazing back line, but you need more than that to win against Spain. They will have 10k+ fans behind them and players will feel like they are playing at home, but Spain won their last EURO with fewer fans backing them and they are just too good to not do it again.
16:00 Germany (-1.5) vs Portugal (For 5th Place) Match Video (Live): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)
18:30 Norway (-2.5) vs Slovenia (For 3rd Place/Bronze) Match Video (Live): Link (Commentary: Paul Bray)
The 5th place match between Germany and Portugal doesn’t have any ramification for qualification, but as both teams are somewhat rested they may well put on a decent show. Meanwhile, Norway and Slovenia, both undoubtedly exhausted after yesterday’s matches will play for bronze and a direct ticket to the 2021 World Championships. So, they actually have something to play for as the loser will have to play a 2 leg qualification match for World Championship qualification in June.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be professional handball bettor, Samo Košmerl, from Slovenia.
John’s Pick(s): – Current Bankroll: 910.89 Euros – Yesterday’s Result: Norway’s Sander Sagosen, Under 6.5 goals; (2.1, +210); Bet 100 Euros to win 110; Lost 100 Euros as Sagosen poured in 10 goals. – Today’s Pick: Germany (-1.5) vs Portugal (1.84, +119); Bet 100 Euros to win 84.03. Germany plays solid defense and they will stifle Portugal’s creative offense. They simply are the better team here and it’s impossible now for Portugal to sneak up on anybody anymore. Germany will be ready.
Samo’s Pick(s): – Current Bankroll: 1795.25 Euros – Yesterday’s Results: Norway’s Goran Johannessen Total Goals – Over 3.5@ (2.00 /+100); Bet 100 Euros to win 100; Win 100 Euros as Johannessen scored 4 vs Croatia – Today’s Pick: No picks today.
