Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group III, France (except for one very unlikely scenario) has all but qualified, Portugal is in with a win and Norway needs help from France.
Group II Standings Heading into the Final Match Day
The final match day will see Switzerland and Algeria play first, followed by Norway vs Iceland and closing out with France vs Portugal. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from the two matches that matter:
Main Round Group III Scenarios
The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.
With the exception of one scenario (explained below) here’s what each team needs to do on Monday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.
France: Win, draw and or lose by 6 goals or less vs Portugal
Portugal: Win vs France or if Norway loses to Iceland, a draw will suffice
Norway: Has multiple scenarios, but all of them involve finishing better or tied with Portugal on points. In most cases this simply means France beating Portugal. Yes, even if Norway loses to Iceland, France can still bail them out by beating Portugal
One scenario, which is also quite likely is a 3 way tie with France, Norway and Portugal all level on 8 points (depicted in yellow above)..
The 3 results from their head to head matches are
France beat Norway 28-24
Norway beat Portugal 29-28
Portugal beat France (TBD)
Each team will have 2 points, so the next tie breaker is head to head Goad Differential (GD). Norway is locked in at -4, while France starts at +4 and Portugal starts at -1. The chart below depicts how that GD will change based on Portugal’s margin of victory vs France.
As depicted Portugal is guaranteed to finish either 1st or 2nd and qualify for the Quarterfinals. If they win by 1 or 2 goals, France will finish 1st and Portugal will finish 2nd. If Portugal wins by by 3 or more goals they would win the group. Norway is starting in a really big hole and would need Portugal to win by 8 goals in order to pass France in GD. Should Portugal win by 7 goals exactly, France and Norway will be tied on GD and the next tiebreaker is Goals For (GF) in head to matches. Should this occur France will need to have scored more than 25 goals to pass Norway’s GF of 53. Should France score 25 goals exactly the next tiebreaker is GD in all games played and Norway would have the advantage there.
Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group II, Denmark is guaranteed, but 3 teams (Argentina, Croatia and Qatar) each have chances to take 2nd place
Group II Standings Heading into the Final Match Day
The final match day will see Japan and Bahrain play for 5th place, followed by Argentina vs Qatar and closing out with Denmark vs Croatia. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from those two matches:
Main Round Group II Scenarios
The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.
What Each Team Needs to do to Qualify for the Quarterfinals
With the exception of one scenario (explained below) here’s what each team needs to do on Monday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.
Denmark: Will finish 1st in all scenarios
Argentina: Win or draw vs Qatar
Qatar: Win vs Argentina and have Denmark beat Croatia
Croatia: Win vs Denmark and have Qatar beat Argentina
The one scenario that’s a little complicated is the tied point standings that will result if Qatar beats Argentina and then Denmark and Croatia draw (depicted in yellow above). This will result in a 3 way tie between Argentina, Qatar and Croatia all level on 6 points.
The 3 results from their head to head matches are
Argentina beat Croatia 23-19
Croatia beat Qatar 26-24
Qatar beat Argentina (TBD)
Each team will have 2 points, so the next tie breaker is head to head Goad Differential (GD). Croatia is locked in at -2, while Argentina starts at +4 and Qatar starts at -2. The chart below depicts how that GD will change based on Qatar’s margin of victory vs Argentina.
As depicted Croatia has no chance of finishing 1st in this scenario. If Qatar wins by 1 or 2 goals, Argentina will finish 1st in this 3 way tie. If Qatar wins by 4 or more, Qatar will finish first.
If Qatar wins by 3 goals exactly both Qatar and Argentina will have a GD of +1 and the next tiebreaker is Goals For (GF) in head to matches. Should this occur Qatar will advance because they are already ahead on GF 24 to 23 and having won the match whatever is scored they will have increased that lead by 3 goals.
Would you look like to be informed of tiebreaker analysis like this for all major tournaments?
Poland vs Hungary is the key match of the day. A Hungarian win will qualify Hungary for the Quarterfinals and set up a match on Monday vs Spain to determine the Group winner. A Polish win, however, will keep the group open and even give Germany a shot at qualification.
1900 Croatia (-4.5) vs Argentina (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Denmark (-10.5) vs Japan (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
Similar to Group I, Croatia vs Argentina is the decider here. If Croatia win they will qualify for the Quarterfinals. Whereas, if Argentina win it opens the door for them and Qatar heading into the final match day on Monday.
Due to Cape Verde’s withdrawal this President’s Cup group will have a forfeit the rest of the way.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
(1st leg): Spain (-182 or 1.55) vs Germany RESULT: 1st Leg won (Spain won 32-28)
(2nd leg): Slovenia (-167 or 1.60) vs Sweden); RESULT: 2nd Leg lost (Slovenia and Sweden played to a 28-28 Draw)
Overall Parlay (+148 or 2.48); Bet $50 to win $74; RESULT :Lose $50
Today’s Pick #1: Qatar vs Bahrain
Youssef Ben Ali, Over 3.5 goals, (+3.5) (-118 or 1.85); Bet 100$ to win $84
Capote is back, Frankis is on fire. This Qatar backline will look more threatening, so Bahrain’s defense will have to go out on them, because if they don’t they’ll get crushed by those two long distance snipers. So when that happen, it will give plenty of space for Ben Ali to exploit. I can see him scoring 4+ here..
Today’s Pick #2: Qatar vs Bahrain; Bet $50 to $74.
Qatar (-4.5) (-118 or 1.85); Bet $50 to win $42.50
Saric, Sinen and Capote are back in the team and Qatar still has a chance to qualify for the quarterfinals if Argentina can pull off an upset vs Croatia later. They won’t know that result until after they play Bahrain so going into the match they have everything to play for.
Today’s Pick #3: Argentina vs Croatia
Argentina (+2.5) Halftime (-115 or 1.87); Bet $100 to win $87
Today’s Pick #4
Argentina (+4.5) Fulltime (-122 or 1.82); Bet $100 to win $82
Argentina with full squad facing history today and they just may shock the world. I think they are in a mission led by El Mago, El Maestro, El Genio, Diego Simonet. Croatia is hurting a lot, and I mean a lot. No Cindric, a recovering Karacic, and I just read a Croatian media report that the team has been impacted by a stomach virus and two of the players mentioned are Domagoj Duvjnak and Ivan Martinovic. If you add those 2 to the missing list everything is possible for this game. VAMOS ARGENTINA!
Heading into the final match day for Main Round Group IV, four teams are bunched at the top. Here’s the current standings:
Group IV Standings Heading into the Final Match Day
The final match day will see N Macedonia and Belarus play for 5th place, followed by Slovenia vs Egypt play first and closing out with Sweden vs Russia. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from those two matches:
Main Round Group IV Scenarios
The chart depicts the final standings for the group based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will qualify for the Quarterfinals, and red indicates the team will finish in 3rd or 4th place.
What Each Team Needs to do to Qualify for the Quarterfinals
Sometimes what looks like it will be a jumbled mess turns out to be pretty simple. That’s certainly the case with Group IV and here’s what each team needs to do on Sunday to qualify for the Quarterfinals.
Egypt: Win or draw vs Slovenia
Slovenia: Win vs Egypt
Sweden: Win or draw vs Russia
Russia: Win vs Sweden
It really is that simple. There are, however, several two team ties that will decide which team finishes first or second in the group. I’ve already assembled the standings based on tiebreakers and here are the relevant earlier head to head results:
Sweden beat Egypt 24-23
Russia beat Slovenia 31-25
Egypt beat Russia 28-23
*Sweden-Slovenia was a 28-28 Draw
Since Sweden and Slovenia played to a draw if they should end up level on points the next tiebreaker is Goal Differential. Under that identified scenario Sweden would have played Russia to a draw and therefore would be locked in with a GD of +13 while Slovenia starts the day at +8. Therefore, if Slovenia beats Egypt by 1-4 goals Sweden would finish in 1st place. Should Slovenia beat Egypt by 6 or more goals, Slovenia would finish in 1st place. And, finally, should Slovenia beat Egypt by 5 goals then the next tiebreaker would be goals scored in all matches.
The current Handball icon at ESPN+. Can somebody out there design a better one?
As we are about halfway through the IHF Men’s Handball World Championships I thought it might be a good time to review the ESPN+ Handball web streaming product.
The Viewing Experience
Overall, the viewing experience has been pretty good, albeit with a few hiccups. For me personally, watching streamed content is pretty much like watching regular TV. Occasionally, I’ll get a little buffering or pixelation, but overall the picture quality is outstanding and better than what I get via YouTube. I’ve been watching via the ESPN+ app on Roku and it’s pretty much like watching Netflix or Amazon Prime for me.
There have been a few glitches with the audio as sometimes the English commentary track has been missing. Usually, just a few minutes at the start of the first match, but on the 19th it went missing the whole day for some reason. I tweeted to @espnfansupport, but perhaps a few more voices were needed to get their attention to fix it.
Finding the matches has also been a bit challenging at times. Most notably, upcoming handball matches don’t show up in the upcoming matches section on the app until maybe 5 minutes prior to the start of the match. This has led to my consternation and to others who would message me “where’s the match?” when there is nothing to see on the ESPN+ app related to handball.
A Disappointing Lack of Promotion (So Far)
As one who’s trumpeted ESPN’s broadcasting of handball as the biggest and most important development in the entire history of team handball in the United States let’s just say that so far the promotion of the sport has been underwhelming. (For an amusing discussion on my expectations and the resigned viewpoint from another longtime follower of the sport (Chris Cappelman) check out this Facebook discussion: Link).
I guess my expectations were directly related to the way ESPN hypes and promotes sports on their very popular social media channels. Most notably, two Sports Center Instagram posts (Link 1 and Link 2) from back in 2017 and 2018 are probably the most viral handball related posts in U.S. history. Simonet’s behind the back shot got 1.2M views and Sigurdsson’s penalty shot punch in got 2.2M views. My logic: Wow, if ESPN was hyping handball when it wasn’t even being shown on ESPN, just imagine what they will do when it’s their content. (Background stories on ESPN posts: Link 1 and Link 2).
Sigurdsson on ESPN’s Instagram Account
And, if one goes back further in time, who can possibly forget the attention that Scott Van Pelt and others paid the sport during the 2012 Olympics: Link
Scott Van Pelt’s “Handball Talk” was a daily feature during the 2012 Olympics
Again, I kind of figured that if ESPN talk radio got excited about handball when it was broadcast on NBC, maybe they would get really excited when it was their own product. At the very least I thought they would talk a little bit about handball while it was simultaneously being broadcast on ESPN+. Interviews with U.S. coaches or players. Maybe some discussion on Gauthier Mvumbi’s viral videos and shout out from Shaquille O’Neal? Instead, I haven’t heard a peep. Heck, at times it feels as if handball was still on beIN Sports.
We’re only half way through the Championship, though, so there’s time for things to pick up. We shouldn’t also forget that the U.S. withdrawal from the tournament was a huge setback. One, that for a short while even had me worried that ESPN wasn’t going to broadcast any matches. It also didn’t help that the NFL playoffs were in full swing. After Sunday’s conference finals there’s a two week lull until the Super Bowl. And, at the same time the World Championships really get going with the Quarterfinals, Semis and the Championships on the 31 when there is no football on TV. Yes, things could definitely pick up.
A Bright Spot: Handball on ESPN+ Long After the World Championships are Over
While I would greatly prefer for the World Championships to be on ESPN’s linear channels where it would reach virtually every home in the U.S. there are some advantages to being on the lower profile, web streaming only, ESPN+.
A Targeted Audience: The first advantage is that this smaller audience is also very, very sports oriented. Or, to put it another way, the type of sports fan who would be more inclined to watch something they maybe have never seen before or perhaps just once or twice during the Olympics several years ago. Further, they are more inclined to become a greater fan of the sport. And, if they are young enough they might even investigate finding out more about possibly playing the sport.
A Home for More Handball Content: This ties to another advantage of ESPN+. Namely, it could become a home for additional handball content. Suppose these new fans want to continue to watch handball. Many of those potential new fans probably think they will have to wait for the next Olympics or World Championships. After all, this is just some game that a P.E. teacher made up. Well, what better way could there possibly be to educate these new fans on the wonders of the EHF Champions League than to put Champions League matches on ESPN+ (ATTN ESPN: Those rights are available) Or, what about adding some U.S. content like our National Team matches or the Collegiate National Championships. Just think what a recruiting tool this could be? Why imagine some intramural all-star at Wake Forest seeing North Carolina playing Virginia in the Collegiate Handball Final Four and instantly thinking, “We could kick those guys asses.”
Forever Content: And, this leads to the final advantage of handball on ESPN+. The fact that streaming services aren’t limited by hours in a day. During the dog days of summer when there’s nothing new on TV, handball could still be on ESPN+ just waiting for someone new to discover. New fans, new player, new sponsors not just during a magical two weeks during the Olympics every four years. But, a trickle coming in at all times of the year. Here’s what that handball sub-channel could look like:
A Better Handball Icon is Needed
It took awhile, but ESPN has finally added handball to its list of sports on the ESPN+ App.
Unfortunately, it’s not the best icon or logo for handball, but just a placeholder. Maybe we can help out ESPN with a better icon. There are several examples from other sports there for comparison. But, this is actually a little bit tricky, for a couple of reasons. One, there is the other handball in the U.S. so that causes confusion. And, then a simple ball drawing could easily result in something that looks like another soccer ball. So, we need something simple that says “our handball.” If anybody out there has got some artistic or design talent… show us what you got.
The 3 teams at the top of the group play the 3 teams at the bottom. And, each of the top 3 teams are favored with surprising Switzerland seen as the team most capable of pulling off an upset. Should the 3 favorites win, there will be a big showdown (France vs Portugal) on the final match day this Sunday.
1900 Belarus vs Egypt (-4.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Sweden vs Slovenia (-1.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
The qualification picture in Group IV is pretty muddled with every team, but N Macedonia having a fairly realistic path to qualification. All they need to do is win their last 2 games. Belarus would need a little help, though. Sweden vs Slovenia is the match of the day with the winner putting themselves in a good position to qualify on Sunday.
Not whole lot to say here about the President’s cup other than you could probably replace Austria with the U.S. and contemplate how the U.S. might have fared vs Morocco, Chile and S Korea.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
Brazil alternate handicap; Brazil (+2.5) (+115 or 2.15); Bet $100 to win $115; RESULT: Lose $100 (Brazil lost to Spain 29-23)
Today’s Pick: Switzerland vs Portugal
Portugal alternate handicap; Portugal (-3.5) (+110 or 2.10); Bet $100 to win $110
Switzerland led by their star center back, Andy Schmid, has been a great story for this Championship. A late entry, replacing the U.S. they’ve qualified for the Main Round, beat Iceland and almost tied France. It still seems a bit strange to talk about Portugal as a contender at a major handball tournament, but maybe it shouldn’t. There only blemish so far is a one goal loss to Norway and they have a balanced attack of young stars. Whereas, Switzerland relies heavily on 37 year old, Andy Schmid to score and set up everyone else to score as well. Can the old star do it yet again against Portugal. Sure, he can, but I think at this stage of the tournament youngish legs start to become more and more of an advantage.
1st half Over 25.5 goals, (-120 or 1.84), Bet 100$ to win $84 RESULT: Win $84 (Argentina led Japan led 18-14 or 32 goals)
2 way Parlay (1st leg): Spain (-182 or 1.55) vs Germany RESULT: 1st Leg won (Spain won 32-28) (2nd leg still needs to come through today)
Today’s Pick:
2 way Parlay (cont) (2nd leg): Slovenia (-167 or 1.60) vs Sweden); Overall Parlay (+148 or 2.48); Bet $50 to win $74.
It’s much the same story with Slovenia being the better side here. The young Swedish side fought well against Egypt but I still think their options are limited, and Jim Gotfridsson HAS to have a good game for them to win. I think, like Spain, Slovenia simply has more options and more quality. The +148 or 2.48 odds for the parlay gives us a 40% implied probability. Whereas, I think it’s much closer to 50%.
Group 1 will start the next 3 match days with a match vs Uruguay destined for a 10+ goal loss. But, following that blowout this Group should have two interesting matchups each day. And, unlike the other groups I think every team but, Uruguay, still has a legitimate shot at placing in the top 2 slots and moving on to the quarterfinals.
1900 Croatia (-7.5) vs Bahrain (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Denmark (-5.5) vs Qatar (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
Denmark and Croatia are the big favorites to advance out of Group II. Croatia has looked vulnerable at times, but they have already beaten what appears to be the 3rd best team of the group, Qatar, and it’s hard to see Argentina or Bahrain knocking them off, If Qatar is going to alter that destiny they will need to pull a big upset over Denmark today.
Due to Cape Verde’s withdrawal this President’s Cup group will have a forfeit the rest of the way.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
Norway alternate handicap 1st half; Norway (-2.5) (+104 or 2.04); Bet $100 to win $104; RESULT: Lose $100 (Norway led at the half 16-14)
Today’s Pick: Brazil vs Hungary
Brazil alternate handicap; Brazil (+2.5) (+115 or 2.15); Bet $100 to win $115
Brazil had a total meltdown on Monday vs Poland. Trailing 11-13 at the half Poland scored 20 goals in the 2nd half to win 33-23. Did Poland expose all of Brazil’s weaknesses? Or was it just one of those halves? I think it was the latter and Brazil will bounce back and put up a good fight today for all 60 minutes
Sharp Action’s Pick(s):
Bankroll: $1,175.50 (Current Bankroll)
Yesterday’s Results: N/A
Today’s Pick #1: Japan vs Argentina
1st half Over 25.5 goals, (-120 or 1.84), Bet 100$ to win $84
I’ve already talked quite a bit about why I like Japan. Their strengths are their intensity, high rhythm, passing game and discipline in following coach Sigurdsson’s instructions. That said, they also have some big weaknesses in defense where their inexperience leads to naive decisions and plenty of scoring opportunities for their opponents. And, those scoring opportunities generally result in goals as their goalkeeping hasn’t been very effective. This all translates into plenty of goals for both sides. Japan’s style of handball has a cost and they often falter in the 2nd half, but I anticipate them being very effective for the first 30 minutes. Side note: Argentina get Diego Simonet back, and it changes everything for them. He’s the soul of the attack, a magician and one of my favorite players to watch. And, with him Argentina is a more capable scoring team on offense.
Today’s Pick #2: 2 Way Parlay: 1) Spain (-182 or 1.55) vs Germany and 2) Slovenia (-167 or 1.60) vs Sweden); Overall Parlay (+148 or 2.48); Bet $50 to $74.
Germany vs Spain : I just think Spain is the better side here. Before the start of the tournament I had them to win it all. Spain is a complete team, well coached, and they have played with each other for a long time now. Their hybrid 6-0 defense is very tricky and they plant traps that make it very difficult to attack them. Their 5-1 is very efficient, too. And, if you do manage to beat their defense you still have to beat Perez de Vargas or Corrales, one of the best GK pairs in the tournament, in my opinion. On attack, they have plenty options in attack with very experienced playmakers in Entrerrios and Sarmiento. And, then they can change their style with Dujshebaev if needed. They simply have much more options then Germany and a deeper bench.
Slovenia vs Sweden (actually to be played tomorrow). It’s much the same story with Slovenia being the better side here. The young Swedish side fought well against Egypt but I still think their options are limited, and Jim Gotfridsson HAS to have a good game for them to win. I think, like Spain, Slovenia simply has more options and more quality. The +148 or 2.48 odds for the parlay gives us a 40% implied probability. Whereas, I think it’s much closer to 50%.
Group 3 gets started with Iceland narrowly favored to pick up 2 points vs Switzerland. France should then have no problem with Algeria before Norway takes on Portugal in the match of the day. It’s pretty much a must win for Norway if they want to keep their quarterfinal chances alive. Portugal, on the other hand, will almost guarantee themselves a spot with a win.
1900 Russia vs Egypt (-2.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Sweden (-2.5) vs Belarus (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
Slovenia should pick up a win vs a N Macedonian side that appears to be the weakest team of the group, then it’s a must win match for hosts Egypt vs a new look Russia team. The evening’s action closes with another new look team trying to add another 2 points to their unblemished record.
Not whole lot to say here about the President’s cup other than you could probably replace Austria with the U.S. and contemplate how the U.S. might have fared vs Morocco, Chile and S Korea.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
Croatia alternate handicap (-4.5) (+125 or 2.25) Bet $100 to win $125; RESULT: Lose $100 (Croatia won 26-24)
Today’s Pick: Norway vs Portugal
Norway alternate handicap 1st half; Norway (-2.5) (+104 or 2.04); Bet $100 to win $104
This is pretty much a must win game for Norway and I like for Sander Sagosen and company to get off to a fast start vs Portugal. Portugal is a solid team, but their preliminary group was substantially weaker and I like for Norway’s defense to slow them down a bit more than the likes of Iceland, Morocco and Algeria.
Due to positive COVID tests Cape Verde is now officially out of the tournament. Uruguay advances to the Main Round, but based on the score lines in their first two matches I’m thinking they might prefer the President’s Cup. Germany and Hungary will have their first real test and will battle for 2 points in the Main Round Group.
Group B, as predicted, is very competitive. So competitive that heading into the final day each nation could still possibly win the group and each nation could still possibly be eliminated: Link. The more likely scenario, however, is for Spain to win the group and then for Brazil and Poland to battle for two points that will carry over to the Main Round.
Angola and Japan will battle for 3rd place while Croatia and Qatar will meet to decide 1st place. Since Croatia lost a point vs Japan they should have extra incentive to go for 2 points vs Qatar.
Group D
1900 DR Congo vs Bahrain (-6.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Denmark (-8.5) vs Argentina (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
Cape Verde’s early departure means that ESPN+ had to choose another group today and, of course, they selected Group D. It’s El Gigante’s world, were just passengers in it. DR Congo has tough task today vs Bahrain as does Argentina (without Diego Simonet) vs Denmark in the 2nd match.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
John’s Pick(s):
Current Bankroll: $923
Yesterday’s Result:
Egypt (-1.5) vs Sweden (+110 or 2.1); Bet $100 to win $110; RESULT: Lost; Sweden beat Egypt 24-23; Lose $100
Today’s Pick: Croatia vs Qatar
Croatia alternate handicap (-4.5) (+125 or 2.25) Bet $100 to win $125
Croatia is now missing Cindric in addition to Karacic, but they will get Sego back in the goal. They struggled to get a draw vs Japan and let Angola play them close for quite awhile. But, even with the injuries they are still a way better team than the Qatar side they will face today. Frankis Marzo blitzed Japan for 11 goals and I just don’t see him having that sort of success against Croatia’s defense. Bottom line: Croatia is just too experienced and has too much riding on this match for it to be a close affair.
Sharp Action’s Pick(s):
Current Bankroll: $1,105
Yesterday’s Results: Portugal over 31.5 goals (-117 or 1.85) Bet $50 to win $42.50. RESULT: Loss; Portugal only scored 26; Lose $50
Today’s Pick #1: Angola vs Japan
1st half money line; Japan to lead at halftime (-159 or 1.63); Bet $50 to win $32.50
Going again with Sigurdsson’s boys. I love their fast pace handball as the ball travels from hand to hand at the speed of light, always with engagement. They play to their strengths and weaknesses. We can see this team lacks physicality, but they compensate with teamwork and speed, doing everything with 100% intensity from start to finish. I think their fast rhythm will simply be too high intensity for Angola.
Today’s Pick #2: Tunisia vs Spain
1st half handicap; Tunisia (+3.5) (-132 or 1.76); Bet $50 to win $38
Tunisia, like Japan, is a team that plays with high intensity from minute 1. They push fast breaks when they can and fair better in a run and gun type of game as opposed to a slower paced game with set up attacks. They scored 17 goals in the 1st half vs Poland and 20 (20!) vs Brazil. I think they can stay in contact with Spain for 30 minutes, but will probably fade due to this high rhythm later in the match.
Would you look like regular reminders of great handball web streaming options all season long? Quick alerts on matches that pop up on line?
Group B has been a dogfight so far with 2 draws, a 2 goal victory and a 1 goal victory. Here’s the current standings:
Group B Standings Heading into the Final Match Day
The final match day will see Spain vs Tunisia in the first match and then Brazil vs Poland in the final match of the group. Here are the 9 scenarios based on the possible results from those two matches:
Group B Scenarios
The chart depicts the final standings for the groups based on the amount of points each team will have accumulated with 2 points for each win, 1 point for each draw and 0 points for a loss. Green indicates a team will finish in the top 3, red indicates the team will finish 4th and yellow indicates where teams are tied in the standings and additional tie breakers will need to be determined.
Here’s a further review of the tiebreakers for where teams will be level on points.
Spain-Tunisia Draw and Brazil Loses to Poland
If this scenario occurs Tunisia and Brazil will both have 2 points in the standings. Since they played earlier to a 32-32 draw the next tiebreaker will be Goal Differential in all matches played. Since under this scenario, Tunisia will have draw in their final match their Goal Differential will be locked in at -2 goals. Brazil goes into its final match vs Spain with a O Goal Differential so if they lose by 1 goal to Spain they will finish 3rd in the Group. If they lose by 3 they will have a -3 Goal Differential and will finish 4th. If Brazil lose by 2 goals both Tunisia and Brazil will have a -2 Goal Differential and the next tiebreaker will be the total goals scored for the tournament.
Tunisia beats Spain and Brazil-Poland Draw
In this somewhat remarkable scenario all four teams would be level on 3 points/each. The next tiebreaker would be goal differential in all matches played in the Group. Because in this scenario Brazil and Poland would have played to a draw, Poland’s GD would be locked in at +1 and Brazil’s GD would be locked in at 0. And, with the other result being a Tunisia victory over Spain the way the numbers work only Tunisia or Spain can have the worst GD in this 4 way tie. See below:
Goal Differential Possibilities for a 4 Way tie level on 3 points.
Nefarious Possibility?
Should Tunisia pull off the upset over Spain, Poland and Brazil will each be in a precarious situation when they play each other. Whoever wins the final match will win the Group, but the loser will get sent to the President’s Cup. However… should Poland and Brazil just happen to play to a draw they will both go through. And, for Poland, playing for a draw might actually help them in the Main Round standings as they could take 3 points forward instead of 2 points.
Of course, handball isn’t soccer. Playing for a draw isn’t so easy in a high scoring game. That being said should Tunisia upset Spain in the first match don’t be surprised if by chance the game is tied in the closing seconds that scoring that game winning goal doesn’t seem as important as it normally is.
And, if you really want to consider a nefarious scenario. What if Poland is up by 1 with 30 seconds left and Brazil scores a very easy goal in the closing seconds to tie the match…
Are Yahia Omar and Egypt legit contenders? I think they are. We’ll know more later today when they take on Sweden.
All times are Egypt Local (CET is 1 hr behind; US ET is 7 hrs behind) Odds courtesy of Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
If you want to watch the matches that aren’t available on ESPN+ check this article for how to watch geo-blocked matches on YouTube: Link
Group E
1900 Switzerland vs France (-6.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Norway (-8.5) vs Austria (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
France is undefeated and has already qualified for the Main Round, but Switzerland is also likely through so this match result will carry through to the Main Round. Austria has yet to win a match, but a big upset vs Norway would probably qualify them for the Main Round.
The situation in Group F is identical Group E. Portugal is undefeated and has already qualified for the Main Round, but Algeria is also like through, thanks to their earlier come from behind defeat of Morocco. But, theoretically, Morocco could still qualify if they pull off a big upset over Iceland.
Group G is really straightforward. Chile and N Macedonia will play for third place in the Group with the winner moving on and the loser headed to the President’s Cup. (Chile will also advance with a draw). Egypt and Sweden will play for 2 pts that could be absolutely critical in the final Main Round standings.
Undefeated Russia should have no problem with a S Korean team destined for the President’s Cup while Slovenia and Belarus will play for 2 points in the Main Round.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
John’s Pick(s):
Current Bankroll: $1,023
Yesterday’s Result: DR Congo’s Gauthier Mvumbi Prop Bet
Gauthier Mvumbi to score +2.5 goals (+123 or 2.23; Bet $100 to win $123); RESULT: Win; El Gigante came through with 4 goals yesterday vs Denmark
Today’s Pick: Egypt vs Sweden
Egypt (-1.5) (+110 or 2.1); Bet $100 to win $110
Egypt looked a little shaky in their first match vs Chile (winning by only 6, but blew out N Macedonia by 19. Sweden has been more steady, beating Chile by 15 and N Macedonia by 12. So, they each have taken care of weaker opposition and this is the first tough match for both teams. And, actually this match might even be a Main Round Group IV decider as Group H doesn’t look particularly strong to me. With so much on the line I just can’t see the hosts losing this one or it coming down to the wire.
Sharp Action’s Pick(s):
Current Bankroll: 1,155 Dollars
Yesterday’s Results: N/A
Qatar vs Japan: 1st half money line; Japan to lead at halftime (+155 or 2.55); Bet $100 to win $155; RESULT: Win; Japan led 16-15 at the break.
Today’s Pick: Algeria vs Portugal
Portugal over 31.5 goals (-117 or 1.85) Bet $50 to win $42.50.
I think it will be hard for Algeria to stop Portugal’s offensive firepower. Morocco’s GK Idrissi slowed Portugal down for 30 minutes, but it’s hard to see Algeria’s GK getting a similar performance. Also, both teams like to play fast breaks and push a higher pace.
Would you look like regular reminders of great handball web streaming options all season long? Quick alerts on matches that pop up on line?
Due to positive COVID tests Cape Verde had only having 9 players available so their match vs Germany was declared a forfeit. Cape Verde is hoping to get some negative test results and to fly in some more players in time to play Uruguay on Tuesday. Tuesday’s matches (Germany vs Hungary) and (Cape Verde vs Uruguay) will be the deciders for this Group.
Group B, as predicted, is very competitive. On Friday, Spain and Brazil played to a 29-29 draw while Poland beat Tunisia 30-28. Tunisia will likely need a win vs Brazil today if they want to go through to the main round. Spain will look to get 2 points vs a young Poland team.
Japan’s draw 29-29 draw vs Croatia is arguably the biggest shock of the tournament so far and sets up a pivotal game vs Qatar today. Croatia should have no problem with Angola today, but they just received some bad news on the injury front as Luka Cindric is out for the tournament with a groin injury
Group D
1900 Argentina (-2.5) vs Bahrain (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Denmark (-18.5) vs DR Congo (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
Argentina and Bahrain square off in a match that, on paper, should determine 2nd place in the group. Denmark should have no problem with the DR Congo, but fans still will want to tune in to see Congo’s Gauthier Mvumbi, who has become the cult hero of the tournament.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
John’s Pick(s):
Current Bankroll: $900
Yesterday’s Result:
1st half handicap; France (-5.5) (+128 or 2.28); Bet $100 to win $128; RESULT: France led by only 4, 17-13; Lose $100
Today’s Pick: DR Congo’s Gauthier Mvumbi Prop Bet
Gauthier Mvumbi to score +2.5 goals (+123 or 2.23; Bet $100 to win $123
I had no intention whatsoever to make a wager today… but, then I saw this prop bet and couldn’t resist. Mvumbi was 4 for 4 vs Argentina in limited action and has now become an internet sensation. He’s surely going to get more playing time today and should have more opportunities to score. Denmark has also seen the videos and may pay him extra attention… but, so what? You can’t stop El Gigante. You can only hope to contain him.
Sharp Action’s Pick(s):
Current Bankroll: 1,000 Dollars
Yesterday’s Results: N/A
Today’s Pick: Qatar vs Japan
1st half money line; Japan to lead at halftime (+155 or 2.55); Bet $100 to win $155
I was impressed with Japan’s performance vs Croatia, even if Croatia’s level of handball and motivation was super low in that match. Japane played a simple but very efficient handball and were well prepared by Sigurdsson. They played at a high rhythm for 30 minutes and pushed fast breaks anytime they could, scoring 17 goals in that 1st half. Qatar on the other hand started slowly vs Angola with no clear game plan in attack, which lead to turnovers. I also noticed that Qatar didn’t always come back fast enough in defense. If they repeat this, Japan has a very good chance to be ahead at HT. +155 or 2.55 odds says that there is a 40% implied probability for Japan to be ahead at half time. I see it as a 50 50 at best, so I’m more than happy to take Japan at these odds.
Betting Prediction: I like France to put up a big half time lead vs Austria. We’ll see if my bankroll gets off to a good start.
All times are Egypt Local (CET is 1 hr behind; US ET is 7 hrs behind) Odds courtesy of Bet MGM
If you want to watch the matches that aren’t available on ESPN+ check this article for how to watch geo-blocked matches on YouTube: Link
Group E
1900 Austria vs France (-9.5) (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
2130 Norway (-7.5) vs Switzerland (on ESPN+) (YouTube) w/English commentary
The first matches for this group saw the two favorites play each other with France beating Norway, 28-24. Now the remaining matches we’ll see if either Switzerland or Austria can pick off a win against them. Switzerland beat Austria, 28-25, so they have a leg up in qualifying for the Main Round
Just like Group E, Group F saw the two favorites play each other last time around, with Portugal winning 25-23. Algeria staged a major comeback to beat Morocco 24-23, so they have the advantage in terms of advancing. This means that the Algeria – Iceland result will likely carry forward to the Main Round.
Egypt won their opening match vs Chile while N Macedonia was beaten handily by Sweden 32-20. If N Macedonia wants to take any points into the Main Round they’ll need to pull an upset vs the hosts today. Sweden are big favorites over a Chile team that put up a decent fight vs Egypt.
With S. Korea sending a B Team to this tournament it’s all but decided that Belarus, Slovenia and Russia are through to the Main Round. Belarus and Russia played to a 32-32 draw, so they each have 1 point. Slovenia and Russia will play what amounts to a de facto Main Round match while Belarus will have a scrimmage practice vs S. Korea.
Betting Predictions
For this tournament we’ve doing some betting predictions using an imaginary starting bankroll of a 1,000 Euros. Joining me will be, Sharp Action, a former professional handball player from France.
Odds are either from the Bet MGM or the Bet Rivers online sportsbooks.
John’s Pick(s):
Current Bankroll: $1,000
Yesterday’s Result: N/A
Today’s Pick: France vs Austria
1st half handicap; France (-5.5) (+128 or 2.28); Bet $100 to win $128
France shook off 2 disappointing results vs Serbia in European qualification play and put everything together for an impressive 28-24 win over Norway on the first day. But, France being France, will everything fall apart once again? Against a weaker foe, not too dissimilar to Serbia? I say nope… They may indeed go back to their old ways later in the tournament, but they won’t have any problems scoring early and often against an Austrian team that won’t be able to handle them one on one. Further compounding Austria’s problems will be their lack of backcourt scoring against France’s middle defense. France should cruise to a big first half lead much the way Germany did in Euro Qualification. I’m not saying France will lead 19-5 at the break like Germany did, but such a result wouldn’t totally shock me. In the 2nd half, however, with the game in hand, I’m not so sure as to what will happen in a game that will likely have no bearing in the Main Round. Hence, the first half bet.
